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tests earthlings for strength, the number of spots on our luminary continues to grow. in august, the average daily number reached 215, this is the maximum of the current solar cycle. the sun demonstrated the greatest activity in more than 20 years. the average number of spots exceeded 200 for the first time since september 2001. then, high activity preceded the most powerful solar flare in the history of instrumental observations. 2024 is not over yet, more than 40 flares have already occurred on the sun the highest x-class, and we literally felt many of them: at least 25 magnetic storms rolled across the earth, and even now the magnetosphere is stormy, and this is not yet the maximum solar activity, geophysicists expect that its peak will fall in mid-2025, does this mean that we will have even more magnetic storms in the coming months, what is the probability of a superstorm occurring on earth, where?

what circumstances must be in place for this to happen and what physical processes underlie the formation of sunspots, this is a question of science, i am alexander gasnikov, rector of the university of enopolis, our guest is maria abunina, presenter, research fellow from miran, head of the center for space weather forecasts, candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, maria, hello, hello, alexander, maria, let's start with a brief overview of solar weather, here are the figures that i just cited, how unusual are they for a period close to the maximum. solar activity, what is happening now can be considered an anomaly? no, in no case, this is normal the result of the vital activity of solar activity and there is nothing unusual about it, especially since the twenty-fifth cycle of activity, the current cycle, is far from being the most powerful, and compared to those that were observed, well, for example, in the 20th century, you are talking about cycles of activity, but what is space weather in general, what are these cycles, observing the sun, naturally, humanity began a long time ago... a long time ago and the first

records of sunspots were found in the annals of ancient chinese scientists, and constant observation, more or less regular after the invention of telescopes, it began around the seventeenth century, when they actually began to regularly observe, sketch and keep some kind of record of sunspots, at the very beginning of observation, that is... centuries had not yet discovered these cycles, but somewhere at the end of the 18th, in the 19th century, a pattern was noticed that on average once every 10-11 years, the number of spots increases, then with some period decreases, such wave-like changes are observed with a periodicity of about 11 years, and can you explain all the same the physics of the process, what is solar a spot, that's... what it is in essence,

sunspots are emerging magnetic, tangled structures, how they are formed, why they emerge, yes, this has not yet been fully answered, probably the one who answers this question will receive some nobel prize, and the more of them, the more active the sun is considered, that's it, yes, yes, something like that, the more spots, the closer we are to the maximum of the solar cycle, then...

from the point of view of an observer, in different cycles of development of solar activity, solar cycles, there are coronal holes, these are open, these are large areas of a large area on the sun with open magnetic fields with an increased speed of solar wind blowing from them, there are active areas, the same wind, plasma that reaches the earth, yes, yes, yes , of course, in general , the solar wind constantly blows in all directions from the sun, in all directions, but from coronal holes this wind has a higher speed, there are small fields, ordinary such average calm wind, but the speed ... reaches - 600, 700, sometimes 800 km/s. provided that the background ones are 300, 400, 450. another manifestation of solar activity is the so-called active regions, these are zones of the sun that consist of spots, which have actually been observed for a long

time already, and with observers and scientists, physicists, here is a slightly different structure, they are the opposite, they have very strong magnetic fields, if ... they have a complex, intricate magnetic structure, then it is these active regions that produce large flares, well, or small flares, in principle, flares occur precisely in these active areas, and there is another such manifestation, such as fibers, in the profile, when we look at the sun, sometimes we see such - they are called prominences, when these - this is a solar fiber, a piece of solar plasma, here when there is an eclipse yes, then yes , an eclipse, then we sometimes see such from the sides.

to be the weather of the sun, if i may say so, cycles, which you have already mentioned, the appearance of spots, forecasting the number of spots by them, respectively activity, but well, if in a very simple way, the sun is somewhere far away, then for this it is necessary somehow observe, indirectly determine all this, can you briefly tell how, well, if you like, the sun is studied and how here on earth we can do forecasting of what will happen in 10 years , well... we have already talked a little about this, that there really are cycles, how do we know that there are cycles, what is it? well, first of all, the instrument is observation, just observation, and until the end the mechanisms of formation of sunspots and formation of cycles of solar activity

are still unclear to humanity observation after all, i also probably need to warn ordinary people that there is a joke that you can look at the sun through a telescope twice, twice, with your right and left eye, so here too, regarding observation, i probably need to explain that this must be done with the help of special equipment and it is necessary, of course, now, of course, in the space age, it is easier to observe the sun than it was at the beginning of the twentieth, at the end of the nineteenth century or in the seventeenth, when regular observations of solar activity began, namely behind sunspots, because they are the ones that are visible in telescopes, coronal holes are not visible in telescopes. variable satellites give us this information, now there are many satellites aimed exclusively at scientific ones, which are constantly, being at the point of mutual attraction between the sun and the earth, the lagrange point, there are about five of these points,

here is the l1 point - this is a point on the line between the sun and the earth at a distance of about 1% from the earth, yeah, this is the equilibrium point. in which the satellites always look at the sun, we look at satellite data and we see what is happening on the sun, well, practically in real time, well , it turns out that, roughly speaking, the story is such that we just know that there were cycles in history, well, by analogy with what was before, we say, well, and then how will it be, and maybe there are some models, many theories, models for the development of further cycles of solar activity, but again... they are mainly, mainly, based only on what we observed earlier, since the mechanism is still unclear, then we can’t talk about exact predictions, even long-term behavior of solar activity, well, it's quite

difficult, what active zones are currently observed on the sun, well, there are coronal holes, they are really less active now, they are smaller in area, they have

less speed. they do not lead to significant geomagnetic disturbances, there are of course active regions, these are the same sunspots that are grouped into active regions, and these active regions are now... and even by some indicators it has been extreme over the past 20 years, not by all, yes, and for some it was even greater than the famous event of 2003, the halloween event, when the storm lasted more than two days, now the storm lasted a day and a half, but for example, by the... index it was greater than the one of 2003, these storms, what do they affect, if we take ordinary people, equipment, well, it is clear that they are unlikely to be of benefit, but what harm can they cause, well, there are positive aspects, i will also tell you about them, so from the dangers that magnetic storms carry, first of all in turn, they affect the equipment of spacecraft, that is, we in general... people who are on the surface of the earth, we have a wonderful protection of the atmosphere and magnetosphere

of the earth, the worst thing happens to those or those aircraft that fly outside the magnetosphere at high altitudes, satellites, for example, we have a lot of satellites at the point between the sun and the earth, which are directly always hanging in one at one point in space on the line of the sun and the earth, for example, looking at the sun or at some... other parts of the solar system, these satellites, naturally, bear the greatest load, they are not protected by the magnetosphere, astronauts, on the iss, for example, they also during - solar superstorms, during large flares, not only coronal mass ejections also occur, but also flows of charged particles, certain energies are amplified, it is precisely this additional dose of radiation that astronauts can receive, because they are also less protected than people on the surface of the earth, and also from

magnetic storms, a consequence of strong magnetic storms can be damaged by this, for example, pipelines, additional corrosion or, wires on the ground already, yes, our earthly ones, but this is just such an additional negative effect, they are probably already subject to corrosion quite strongly, or , for example, causing additional , then you can’t say that if an ordinary person turns off the electricity for 9 hours, well, well, they turned off the electricity, then

restored it, but you have to remember that there are hospitals, ivl devices, some systems that require a constant power supply, here you need to be prepared for all sorts of surprises, there are some additional electric generators or something else where you can quickly switch, and if people, well , let's assume how the influence of different... the pressure outside the window is studied, he felt bad, or

the person there has hypertension, something changed sharply on the contrary, here it is nearby, space weather, it affects the earth's magnetosphere, the earth's magnetic field, we live in a constant magnetic field of the earth, the magnitude of which is tens... thousands of nanoteslas at the poles one, on the equator is a little bit different, but so if about 20, 30 thousand nanotesla, changes in the magnetic field that happen during... can affect a person if it has changed by only 400 units, this effect, well, for constantly we live all the time we feel the effect of 40 thousand nanotesla, we are used to it, it has changed

less than there by a percent, how can a person feel it on himself, birds can feel it. changes in magnetic fields naturally have a much stronger effect on their body and there have been cases recorded, when a flock of flamingos landed somewhere in novosibirsk during a magnetic storm, yes, that is, they were flying somewhere to the south , they got lost, they flew in the wrong direction, everything, the device can fail, but a person as a creature, well... logical, of course, it can somehow affect all these changes on the human body, but firstly, it is very difficult to isolate, to isolate this specific influence, because you need to remove other factors, and it can be considered as an additional stress factor, from the category of you were told there will be a storm, you are starting to worry about this, you

mentioned that there is some positive influence, of course, of course, well, firstly, for scientists this is an interesting event. well, then we observe it at the poles, we now understand that over time , the magnetic north pole of the earth is migrating towards russia, probably in a few decades, even it is moving towards russia, it will be somewhere in taimyr. in the taimyr region, how will this affect our lives, the lives of russians in this case? well, it probably won't affect much, firstly, because it is possible, well so, if we estimate, knowing the cycles of solar activity, and there in 5 years there will be a minimum, in another 10, another minimum, now in general according to - research, we have entered

the next phase of development of solar activity with more moderate and low solar activity. russia, we will see 8-9, no, no, if the index, that's when the north pole comes to changes, then they will be insignificant, the famous carrington event, when, i think , in 1859, the aurora was observed even in india,

the polar lights, such as that which usually observes. somehow it repeats itself, this can be predicted, what consequences, this is what will happen in general, if this happens now, we can expect it in the near future, but as i understand it, no, but still, yes, you are right, you understood correctly, really now such a powerful event, well, it is quite unlikely, of course, the sun always gives us surprises, and we seem to be watching, watching it every day and saying that well, everything is calm, nothing will happen for a week, then once a complexity surfaced in the active region, it gave out a series of flares, a series of emissions flew to us we have storms here for two days, and it cannot be completely denied, but to say that right in the next year we will be able to observe something like this,

well, that's also true, it would be interesting for us, of course, from a scientific point of view. to observe such an event, yes, but i think that well, here in this case, you personally, as i understand it, not only me personally, but everyone, but all physicists who study magnetic storms of solar activity, okay, well, and a little more about the influence of solar activity on our planet, it turns out, solar cycles can affect the weather, how this happens, we learn from experts, climatologists, the fewer spots on the solar disk, the colder the winters in northern europe. an unexpected correlation was discovered by climatologists from lund university. their colleagues from the danish technical university also see a connection between the weather on earth and the sun, they claim that the weakening of cosmic ray flows leads to a more active way. clouds in the planet's atmosphere, this factor may even be one of causes of global warming. cosmic rays obviously influence the earth's climate, but it is largely

ignored because it contradicts the generally accepted climate agenda. scientists admit that solar events influence the earth's weather, but how exactly this works is unclear. it is clear that the influence, compared to other factors, is relatively weak, and therefore difficult to study. solar activity in the surface layer is... um, a very unknown factor, a very unknown factor, for example, until now scientists cannot understand how the effect of the impact of changes in solar activity can be transmitted - from the upper layers of the atmosphere to the lower, the influence of the sun on long-term climate processes is much better studied, it is huge, however, it is not associated with spots or holes, with changes in the orbit. of our planet, when we move away from the star, ice ages occur, we approach and the earth thaws. the earth received slightly different amounts of sunlight, solar

energy, this is the so-called melankovich cycle, which is about 100,000 years, when periods of cooling, such global cooling, were replaced by periods of interglacial epochs. and another curious correlation, confirmed by statistics: during periods of high solar... activity , earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur less frequently, again we have to state the mechanics of the interaction of lithospheric plates of the solar wind for scientists is still terra incognito. let's return to the studio, maria, the peak of solar activity is approaching, when will it come and what are the forecasts, every day will there be a magnetic storm? no, there won't be a magnetic storm every day, and if we take the statistics of observations of magnetic storms since the thirty-ninth year, we have regular observations. geomagnetic activity, then on average per year, about once a week we have a magnetic storm, but again in

the phase of maximum solar activity they happen more often, but in the minimum solar activity, on the contrary, there can be only 20 such storms per year, in principle any storms, or for example, we had 2009, it was just... an incredibly calm year for the whole year there were only four magnetic storms of the lowest danger class, that is, the smallest in amplitude, only four, on average over many years of observations once a week, in september yes, there were much more than once a week, they also vary in duration. what is your forecast for the near future? our forecast for the near future, so yes, now we are really in the phase of maximum solar activity. usually the phase of maximum lasts 2-3 years, if we consider that it began at the end of the twenty third, now it's the twenty-fourth, in the twenty-fifth we'll already be going

down by the end of the year, actually, that's why i hope there will be some more interesting, powerful events, interesting to study, i'm not sure that you are supported, i always say when you hear a forecast, what? visual ones, which were visible to the naked eye, i didn't see the polar lights, actually we only look at what was there in irkutsk, they send me photos, but in

september there was a storm, which was even more violent than moscow, well, you just understand that in moscow, because of the city's light, it is very difficult to observe anything at all in the night sky, unless in the northern part of the region, for example, or in st. petersburg. during the phase of solar activity decline , the source of disturbances simply changes, if at the maximum these are flares, coronal mass ejections associated with flares, then during the phase

of decline... of solar activity , coronal holes dominate. and, for example, in 2007-2008, we had a coronal hole that lived, how many revolutions, 2 s half a year. and we regularly, every 27 days from this coronal hole had a magnetic storm on the earth. let's sum it up. well, the activity of the sun in the coming months will increase, but do not be afraid of it. magnetic bores are not as scary as many people think. but there will be an opportunity to admire the polar light. maria abunina, a leading researcher from miran, head of the center for space weather forecasts, answered the question about science, maria, thank you very much, especially for your optimism, thank you.

mom, what are these letters for? for a fairy tale. in the three ninth kingdom, the three tenth state.

russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia , russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, russia, 24.

russia celebrates teacher's day, vladimir putin congratulated teachers on their professional holiday, the president noted that in our country. and modern approaches together develop the education system. dear friends, i am glad to congratulate you all on teacher's day. this holiday is considered to be their own not not only school teachers, but also university professors, college and technical school mentors, all those who have linked their lives with education, upbringing,