putting up some much money, that we would have -- that we would condition our support of this on being part of the rtp and no less than 650. that was verywe felt it was impe condition our support on a minimum dollar amount. it really does not hurt anybody. it is falling and tracking what has been approved. we're not doing anything contrary to that. it is a safeguard for the authority. >> sf cta did specify the amount. >> they put a dollar amount. >> and the ta conditions their support. >> yes, they conditioned their support of the exact same condition that we put in our document. supervisor kim: i appreciate the clarification. i thought it was contingent on continued funding, not a dollar amount, but the ta put a dollar amount.

>> it says at least $650 million. >> absolutely. we have gone this far because we always insist that everything be in writing. good intentions aside, let's be clear. so that is what we're doing it. director metcalf: ok, this is really exciting to be talking about phase two, and it is really impressive what you have pulled off in the last season at to get all this done. i have two questions. one is, what is the best case scenario timing of moving the dtx into construction? and then, related to that, i would like us to be thinking about contingencies in case the federal money is not there. it is one thing to have it written down in a bay area plan document that we're going to

get $650 million. it is another for the congressional republicans to fund a transportation bill of sufficient size over many years to actually fill up that bucket. so it is related to the first question about timing, because if it is going to take years and decades to get the $650 million simply because of the size of the federal transportation budget, that is another reason for us to have a contingency. >> i would like to start with the second question, because, obviously, the last couple of years, last couple of a federal appropriation cycles, have not been good in terms of domestic discretionary spending, new starts has continued to do well. the threshold that applicants for the new starts program typically bring to capitol hill is seeking approximately $2

we have not reached that benchmark since the fiscal year 2010 bill. but the 2012 bill was at $1.995 billion. the senate had the bill for fiscal year 2013, and there's is $2 billion plus. even though the negotiations on the surface transportation reauthorization have dragged on and on and it looks like there is a real prospect that those will get extended again beyond june 30, at no aspect of those negotiations have involved backtracking from the new start program or anything that would threaten the federal commitment to this program going forward. i think we're on solid ground in terms of the future of new starts. in terms of the best case scenario for the timing, the factor that will really determine how quickly we move is how quickly we are able to line

up our local funding sources. if it is a question of how quickly future new bridge tolls come through the original process, how quickly we are able to move forward with the new or augmented local sales taxes that are mentioned, how quickly we are able to move forward with the trend -- a trend since interdistrict plan, which is in the process of being finalized -- you cannot move forward in new starts and tell those local funding sources are finalized. you cannot get a full funding grant agreement. but once we have those lined up, we're actually able to work with the federal the permit of transportation ticket what is called a letter of no prejudice, and that will allow you to start spending bills local funds while you're still negotiating your full funding grant agreement. so it is a question of how quickly that funding can be lined up. >> that is right.

we're so far advanced with our engineering, we could start construction in 2014 if we had the money. that is how far advanced we are with the extension engineering. on contingencies, director, we're not just, all of the seven because we're now in the draft rtp for new stars, not continuing to look at other options. we have to continue to be responsible and see what else we can do, because anything can happen. director metcalf: i hope you're right about the future of federal funding for new starts. i continue to think we would be wise to have contingencies in case you're not right. >> that is what we're looking at. we're absolutely doing that. it is always good to have a plan b, c, and d, and we're working on that. >> the largest option that has been out there and that is really on the table has been in new starts. to be on a path forward with that is a great step forward,

while we pursue other options as they become available. supervisor kim: any other questions? ok, thank you. >> no members of the public indicated it wanted to address you on that item. supervisor kim: do we have a motion? we have a motion and a second. >> roll-call vote. director lloyd: aye. director metcalf: aye. director reiskin: aye. director ortiz: aye. supervisor kim: aye. 5 ayes. item eight is approved. supervisor kim: item number 9. >> a presentation of research quantifying economic benefits resulting from construction of the transbay transit center and downtown extension, including an increase of $3.7 billion in the value of nearby property. this is an informational item. >> yes, this is an informational item.

for many years, we have been talking about the benefits of building the transit center. we have talked about environmental benefits, benefits that improved the overall health of the public. we have talked about alleviating congestion. we have talked about the housing that will be built because the state give this land and help fund a project that is now allowing the city to build housing. we talked about the numerous benefits in terms of creating jobs. what i recently asked for our economic consultants to do was to actually quantify the benefit of building the transit center and extending caltrain into the transit center to the surrounding property values. the conclusion is that the values will increase by $3.7 billion as a result of building the transit center and extending caltrain. for anyone who has thought that extending caltrain was not a but i did or would not work, we now quantifiable data that shows that it will bring a tremendous economic benefit to the city of san francisco. scott mentioned at the report

that came out yesterday regarding the benefits of electrifying caltrain to the peninsula cities. we have not quantified benefits of the increased property values, but we will see it as a result of extending caltrain to downtown san francisco. our economic consultants can second that there will be increases to the value of the property in san mateo and santa clara county as a result of extending caltrain to downtown san francisco. that might be the next study we give. i'd like to ask libby and tim to come up and give the transport -- the presentation, please. thank you. >> thank you very much. thank you very much for that kind introduction. tim and i the persian the opportunity to present the findings of the key benefits of the chances center -- we appreciate the opportunity.

the transbay transit center and the transit center district plan are critical to san francisco's future as a world-class city, and they build on san francisco's economic strategy and will be helpful to the entire region. through our review of existing academic and professional literature of around the world, the transit center and the development of a new, walkable, contact -- compact, transit- oriented neighborhood around downtown san francisco will provide substantial economic benefits. very importantly, as indicated, it will enhance property values surrounding the transit center by providing enhanced transit access, parks and open space, and this new walkable neighborhood featuring a variety of amenities that you are very familiar with. the key features of the transit center being the sustainable state of the art transit center itself, the large scale park on top of the transit center, and the surrounding new parks in the neighborhood and the new retail

that will be both within the trend isn't center and in the neighborhood -- a transit center and in the neighborhood. we want to highlight some key points. in order for the u.s. to remain globally competitive, we must promote integrated investments in mobility, environment, and economic development, like the transit center. as for policy magazine states and eloquently, interconnected cities worldwide are the key hubs of global commerce and engines of future growth. in particular, i want to mention spur's urban future work paper, and i want to make sure everybody is aware of this, about our nation's most competitive knowledge service sector, which is based in the bay area. these businesses thrive in a compact, a transit-first environment. as the papers is, facilitating dints clustering in job centers as envisioned around the transit

center is key to creating a more robust business environment for existing and new firms and to be seen as key to the region's economic development strategy. just to note, there are 235,000 employees within three-quarters miles of the transit center, which is the densest employment center within our region. the integration of multi-modal infrastructure and transit at the terminal is critical to our regions success, because it will provide seamless transit connections to the region and abroad, particularly through the connection of high-speed rail, as was talked about earlier. we looked in particular a global research of what cities are doing around the world. as many of you know, nearly 500 million more people will live in cities over the next decade. so we focused in particular on five cities that are ranked in the top of the cities in the world by the global cities index, the world cities service,

and a global power city index, to name a few. san francisco ranks among the top 25. the five cities we looked at were new york, london, paris, tokyo, and berlin. interestingly, the common themes with in these cities or that there are new office towers being constructed in the downtown core surrounding transit improvements. there are significant open space investments, including investments on and around transit stations themselves and extensive neighborhood development, including new retail. in particular, in new york, the world trade center and the path of improvements that are under way right now, the new world trade center building is scheduled to open next year. a 104-story high-rise office building but also of note is the hyaline park, which as been a

transporter the desk -- and transformed into an open space a provision for new york city. there are numerous transit extensions going on, including the second avenue subway and the number 7 subway. in london, in preparation for the olympics, the olympic village is under way, and some significant transit improvements and connections, including the $25 billion cross rail that will connect the center of london to the financial district and to heathrow airport. and the u.k. is also investing $52 in a high-speed two real project as well as a $12 billion rail connections from north and south of london. adding together these transit developments and new developments in london, there transforming the london area. in paris, there are numerous investments related to transit to increase mobility and access for greater paris, including improvements to plaza areas were

the new high-rises are being proposed to be constructed to open in 2016. 90 and 93 stories respectively. in tokyo, japan has been a leader of the most efficient and extensive public transportation system in the world and continues to invest in their high-speed rail system. in tokyo city, one of the interesting notes is that a pedestrian deck, and open space public ground roof, will be opening next year to provide significant of door open space in and around the transit center and to connect to the office towers nearby. in berlin, there is an open, state of the art, glass-and closed carell playstation that connects east and west berlin. less than a mile from that is the new station corridor and the proposed europa city, a transit oriented district.

in summary, companies are finding advanced urban-dial settings have collaboration in the sharing of ideas, and companies will pay more for office locations that are near transit and other near downtown open space that their workers can visit and benefit from. i think you're very familiar with all the benefits of the transit center. i will just highlight a few. construction and permanent job creation. better access to all residents and employers and businesses to jobs through an integrated transit system. in particular, the caltrain downtown rail extension to the expansion of access to the labor market means greater access to top talent that will continue to drive innovations, particularly in the knowledge service sector. improve travel efficiency and decreased traffic construction -- congestion by getting more

vehicles off highways 101 and 280, which will save tremendously in time savings estimated at $360 million. and as importantly, decreased ghg in michigan and an increase in the growth in net regional product of $87 billion. last but certainly not least, the health benefits that have been demonstrated for people who live and work in communities with high quality transit, benefit from the increased physical activity, improvement of health, and better access to health foods and mental care. any significant benefits of arts and the improvements that will go along with the transit center, including the rooftop park, the amphitheaters, public plazas, and the retail space is, all of which will be hialeah magnetized and beautiful places to be. moving on to our research, we

examined numerous studies about how transit, open space, and other amenities and that -- enhanced values. tim will describe those in the till, but i will give you a flavor. transit systems create value by saving riders time and money, by providing sufficient access to jobs, housing, and other destinations, and by providing business is better access to employees. open space standards and values to properties near parks and open space, because people are willing to pay more for a home or a business that sits near open space. and neighborhood amenities occur, particularly in walkable neighborhoods that are compact with a mix of retail where people can benefit from a variety of uses within a very

short period of walking. added together, this combination creates premiums and property values. in summary, this is how the transit benefits work. higher-quality public transportation, which results in fewer traffic crashes, reduce pollution emissions, improved physical fitness, and people owning fewer vehicles and spending less time in their cars. these are just a sampling of some of the studies that we looked at, including a study that looked at the san diego trolley in the properly -- property value increases there. the shepherds of refinancing study that looked at toronto, canada and what has gone on with in the transit system improvements throughout toronto. the hyline recent study that showed the property value increases along that area. a study that was done that basically showed within european cities, the willingness of businesses to pay more for properties that front on open space and parks.

and neighborhood amenities that provide premiums, like the chances interdistrict plan is envisioning, from all of the interconnected development that will occur. in particular, i want to mention a brookings study that found walkable neighborhoods produce, in washington, d.c., and 80% increase in retail sales and a $82 square-foot premium in condo and homes cells. with that, i would like to turn it over to tim to talk about the results of our analysis. >> thank you. good morning. she talked about the structure and methodology of our study, but i get to talk about results. this page is a summary of a meta analysis. we did a literature review of something like 50 different studies of the top economists, the academics, some of our local sadr very well known. this represents results.

the x-axis would be the difference -- assistive -- distance from the station in ft. and the associated premiums. they're quite varied. a lot of structure. a lot of different types of transit. a lot of different environments they are built into. if you fit a curve or trendline, the red and yellow lines would summarize the average premium by each of those. if you look specifically at those areas that are urban, you throw out some of the alabama wires and some of the areas that are suburban or you might have a binary situation, no transit before, and some places like san diego light rail is like that. actually, the premium is a little bit mitigated. this graph shows a look closer to the assumptions that we are making throughout the rest of the study when you throw out some of the l. ayers and those that do not compare to the

environment we have in san francisco. when you did all those studies and you drill down those that most of parable, the most analogous locations to the city we have, you look at the table in the bottom right in you see the 3% range all the way up to numbers around 10% and higher. when we look at the city of san francisco indian burn me -- and the environment we have around the transit terminal, we already have a very transit-rich environment. we're not going from nothing. we actually have a lot of very effective and used transit, a lot of ridership, and a strong environment. so we have looked at the conclusion that mitigates that outcome. being conservative as well as recognizing the fact that we already have that level of transit and what we're doing is a significant marginal increase of a pretty strong baseline. in addition to the 50-some-odd

step is we looked at on the train this side, we looked at 15 peer reviewed studies that considered open space and neighborhoods. these would be associated with some of the things she mentioned. the rooftop parks, the incredible urban environment, the brand new amazing station that we're going to be building. if you look at how we have looked at these, we have the conclusions of the 1.7% to 5.2%, and we're adding a three piece and open space at a neighborhood premium to those areas that are most benefited by the transit terminal itself. there the immediately adjacent properties in the quarter mile radius. you can see in some trouble, the four zones we have looked at, from the three quarter mile radius and a total 1.7% premium. the half mile radius and 2.9 is at a premium, and the others that follow.

this map, i like a lot, because it actually shows the cordoned city of durban san francisco and the properties on the commercial side -- shows the core of san francisco. on the left, it looks at the overall value, the existing value using a conservative $400 per square foot existing values of office and retail. it is about4 about2 billion of total -- it is about $2.28 billion of total premiums generated on existing commercial parcel. this is the same table for existing residential. now we have 1000 properties and something like 44,000 residential units. it is interesting to see the distribution of these zones.

obviously, a lot of them by end zone four. distribution is about 1000 properties, 44,000 units, about $22 billion of existing value. premium potential is about $835 million. new development. clearly, all the new development associated, about 7.8 million square feet of commercial space and 2900 market units. in the value added is something like $7 billion, using a little bit higher assumptions for some of the values. effectively, the premium is about $584 million for these new properties. this shows the total commercial property value across all the different zones. zone two is interesting. obviously, it is a tight area, 81 quarter mile radius, but it is the key home to some of the

best densities. especially on the commercial side. especially with a high rise buildings that will drive a significant premium. residential, zone two, the peak of the value, a combination of high density and strong premium, because it is very walkable to the transit center. strong amenities. last, when we kind of look at the total premium value by each of these different components, if you look at the pie chart, the transit premium on existing developments, existing properties, is about 50% of our overall $3.7 billion. when you did the existing the velvet as a whole, it is a good portion, $3.1 billion. and a new development is the $580 million that gets us to that $3.7 billion number. this shows across the board. you can see the wake of the existing commercial developments and the number of square feet in that area.

those workplaces -- those interconnected areas and that office space is going to benefit by the larger network that the transbay terminal and the downtown extension will deliver. back to libby 4 conclusion. >> with that, we would like to conclude with is that this is a key investment in san francisco and in the bay area region that will support san francisco's economic strategy. it will provide substantial economic benefits to the bay area, and as he illustrated, it will enhance property values by providing transit access, new parks, and open space in a new compact neighborhood in downtown san francisco. with that, we would love to take your questions. chair kim: directors, any questions? >> yeah. i do not know if this is for you or nancy.

the are we getting enough from the value recapture? if you look at all the different value recapture mechanisms that are in place? and does this tell you anything -- does this tell us anything we did not know? >> yes, it does two things. one is that it does support and maybe go beyond what we had been assuming for the property values that we have been projecting. so the work that the group has done on the past to give us the values on the properties. in fact, when we talk about the premiums in the things that were incorporated into the condo sales prices that led us to the individual values that we expect to achieve, it supports that and beyond. >> ok, so i am interested in the "and beyond." >> i think to answer your question more particularly, we looked very carefully at the word that we have done for the tjpa in terms of land values and

property values, and this study parallels the kinds of premiums we have been anticipating as part of the residential and office premiums that have been assumed in the prior work that we have done. and the other part of the that we did is we looked at, for example, the millers -- melarus community, and there are special taxes that would be levied in would be compared to our value adjustments to the marginal increase anticipated as part of that word. again, it is within those ranges. the would say that the mechanisms of the melarus special tax, as well as the land of value capture and the ultimate build out of the new development and the property tax increment that would be generated are actually really reflecting these enhanced

values. >> ok, so there's not more than we thought? >> to be clear, the reason i said and beyond is because it went beyond the properties that we were looking at, that we're not in control of. so we were showing what was happening within the rest of the surrounding area. the 3 1/4 miles. >> it seems like this second area is were there is a lot of potential capture that is outside this area, outside of the transit center district and the melarus, which may be part of the answer to the previous question on the contingency plan. if we do not have the new starts, this could go further into downtown where there's perhaps opportunity for a value capture. >> what did you think about that, nancy? >> i should let him speak to that, too. you know, i do not know. it is certainly something that should be consed