expectation. >> i think we should pass this along to the audience. there should be design standards. there's a discussion, what should our design standards be for new construction? and the building department, we on caps are going to say, what standards should those be? and there's a group of us that have come up with a concept that hasn't been universally adopted of at some point in the future, this might be 15, 20, 25 years out, where our retrofits and our renovations are implemented at that point. it's not going to happen within next week. but where occupants of

buildings, 95 percent of the population can expect to shelter in place within 12 hours of an earthquake. that's where a group of us feel we should be designing towards. who's going to benefit? these are details of what we're trying to figure out and address. >> as a general contractor, i see hundred year old buildings and they have brick foundation or inadequate foundation. minimal concrete. everything is done with stainless steel and granite. but the next door neighbor could have brand-new. you are still vulnerable. i understand on commercial buildings we have umb

restrictions. otherwise the city will come in. >> if someone fails to upgrade, we with would make them do it. >> what about residential? if you have a monster next to you? >> there are no retroactive requirements. i think i might take issue with a next door neighbor. >> my client should hire someone. but you have a monster on full bricks. >> you can, if you have a risk, next to a very tall building, that building can give you hazards. you can also be on the other extreme. i would tell you to leave the brick building in place.

the performance of your building will be way on down the food chain. i would also say that just because your building survived a 1906 earthquake, >> it wasn't a big earthquake. the building was built in 1989. there are a lot of large buildings that did and there are a lot of didn't. >> i can talk to our insurance agent and says this is a serious one that comes up. we would not have enough to pay with everybody in the area. >> that has to do with cea. the amount of money they have in reserves is based on a 20-year return cycle.

they haven't had 20 years >> our buildings are 80 or 90 areas old. our agents said, we will merely pay you $120 per square foot. if that should fall down, we won't be able to pay out every client. it doesn't make sense. that's why we choose not to purchase >> there are a lot of things that come into play with that. when you pay a premium, you are paying into a reserve. so the cea builds up a reserve. they can't build up the reserve otherwise. that's how their building it. the national flood insurance is a public pool. the same thing is true there. they didn't have enough in

their reserves to pay out the returns. congress had to pass legislation to authorize the replenishment. that's how these pools are set up. government is involved in how the additional funding comes. i am not specific with how it works in california. part of the reason states are putting this up as opposed to a company that does this. >> so, how do we as a homeowners or renters know who is a sound structural engineer? >> how about i answer since i'm not an engineer. you can take comfort, we in san

francisco have the largest community of seismic activity and structural engineers. we have a lot of concerned citizens that aren't engineers that are asking questions like you're asking. i think the essential questions on how your building is going to do, there's going to be a lot of consensus on any group of engineers on how your building is likely to perform in terms of getting on the margins of the issues, the percentage of damage your building might have or specific issues in terms of repair, there might be agreement on that. i think the science and the art are to the point for the big questions and big answers, there's a lot of consensus on

that. i would take comfort on that. >> i agree with that. >> i think it was a joke, engineers talking about them. our buildings are not that difficult to access. people would be able to point out 90 percent with clear consensus. there might be differences on details like brick foundation. there are things people would see as unique. you should have comfort, i don't know, if it's the registered structural >> it's abag.gov. within the earthquake section,

there's information about retrofitting wood structures and a list of engineers. a lot of these are single family. i think there are engineers listed there too. i might be wrong. it's a great resource and the associations staff went through and looked at them. if you are a contractor, you might want to get in there. it's free advertising. >> i have to say, in san francisco, we have so many difficult buildings. these are all one off buildings. it requires an engineer to take a look. >> not just a contractor >> not just prioritize. >> just going straight to a

contractor. >> i said that with a caveat. that's for a single-family, cripple wall, >> yes, i am a contractor. i find in the public, there's a lot of confusion. could you talk about the generally standards of retrofitting. i think people need to understand, the generally accepted standards to which you can strengthen a building. >> basically, there's a spectrum all the way from 1886, whatever their performance might be. meet what the state of the art is or what the future code might be.

we have this range of potential. someone says, i needed code. you mean 1908? 1930. or 2007 or proposed 2009. so there's a huge spectrum. san francisco has made a determination. >> officially retrofitted. >> it should be 75 percent of the current 2007 code. okay. 75 percent, we say, we're going to call that collapse prevention standard. >> you can out least stay in your house >> it will be referencing this standard. 75 percent of the current code.

it's a real wide range. if you use the special procedures, you could find it for bricks and each type of buildings and structures. >> there are buildings that have been retrofitted and as a group, we say, maybe they are not deserving of being called 104 s buildings. if you are a licensed structural engineer, you can give people some idea. if you retrofit the garage, you can stay in the upper floors. then it becomes an art. you want to talk to a

structural engineer. some of the high rise buildings, we were able to accurately model it down to 7 figures. we designed buildings down to that level the accuracy. it's an art and you want to talk to someone that does this for a living. >> i couple of final comments. one the best things is to help you prioritize. pat and i have looked at hundreds of earthquake buildings, may be thousands, the smallest amount of work you do, as an enormous return. >> 89, there was a building, in marina, they built opposite buildings. i went into one, had no damage. not a lick.

the building next to it, identical, trash. the difference was the guy put on anchor bolts. just the fact he put in anchor bolts. he was staying there. >> i have seen the same thing with 2 sheets of plywood. i want to mention, typical san francisco buildings. we have a huge variety. we have things in the middle of the midblock held up by adjoining buildings. it's held up. it can't fall down. >> so if you live in the midblock, we have corners and have almost all agreed. wood framed soft story

buildings, poses substantial hazards. they have few interior partitions. this is a serious hazard. now only do we potentially lose a believe, but the neighborhood serving grocery store. these have potential for enormous impact. how do we reduce that. here's another example. we have these huge variety buildings. this thing is held up with toothpicks. how does it stay up with wind loads? we have things with marginal maintenance and i think a chimney is a significant hazard.

think about how to brace your chimney. we don't want to have people being in there's earthquake shacks. we don't have plans. we don't have a plan what we're going to do for housing. >> we know we don't want to be in formaldehyde trailers. >> i want to use the word plan. i will say, i think one of the things we do in our life. we plan for retirement. you think about social security. your children who might take care of you. any 401 k. you have to look at earthquakes and make a plan. you need to think about the things to have access. backing up your hard drive. have been your family on the east coast have copies of

valuable documents so they are not lost and also this issue of risk. how much risk do you want to retain? don't invest in retrofitting if you financially don't need that. if you don't have investment in that structure. it might not be significant for you. take a holistic view. >> the american red cross has a plan. you can get only at red cross.org. they have planning for your family. contact information, making

sure there's a central contact. in my case. there's family in the east coast. >> all of the systems get flooded and cell towers are going to go down. they have a limited life. so if you're able to recharge your cell phone. the system might go down texting is quite possible to do. people in katrina were able to do that. having a central point of contact to say, i am okay. that person can receive that information. your grandmother may not be the person to do that. no offense grandma. think holisticly when you think about the future. what it's like to live.

imagine living in a disaster for several weeks >> thank you for coming today and we hope this has enlightened you. thank you very much. see you next month.