uncertainty though around the state budget, and the policy question that you have to deal with and that the mayor has to deal with is how much can we afford to back fill when the state makes the cut. i think el probably agree with you that these families are some of the most needing of child care. what we are trying to do now is figure out where do we have open slots for kids? could we transition them into city-fund slots, and what might be sources of funding -- [inaudible] >> we will keep you updated on the progress of the conversations. >> that would be good. the impact to their lives would be great. supervisor mirkarimi? supervisor mirkarimi: thank you. i was wondering. are you referring to the full

$3.5 million or to the $1.6 million? >> what i am aware of right now is the conversation is around $1.5 million. that is the part that the first five could be eligible to cover because it is only for kids who are between the ages of 0-5. what we are trying to figure out, it's a million dollar a month cost if we were to pick it up -- [inaudible] >> and it is not clear to me whether the reimbursement is for all slots or just for this birth to five aiming group. supervisor mirkarimi: and does the mayor's office have potentially a short-term prescription if we were to move from this pulpit into a direction of trying to shore up temporarily? >> i think what i would say is

we are in process of trying to gather up the information we need to have a short-term fix. i don't know what that exactly looks like yet, but i would be happy to talk with you more as though conversations develop. the first five, the department of children youth and families, and they are all looking at this issue. >> since november 1st is when stage three recipients would lose that support is literally just several days away, could this be something that we would wait until potentially the next board meeting? or is this something we would actually try to move on in the next few days? i am just trying to understand the process. that's all. >> so you are asking what is the prods by which the decision gets made?

about the city providing funning? >> i am asking for suggestions since the funding terminates on november 1st. >> can i jump in? let me just throw -- because the other side doesn't want to say this, so i will say it. the 6 c1 this. i will say it. the city and county of san francisco cannot continue to be the entity that bill sacramento out of its problems. we have tens of millions of dollars of course of the services that we cut, year after year, because sacramento cannot get their act together. $13 million, if the idea is to take $13 million out of the $30 million set aside for state reserves, what did we talk about five minutes ago? sacramento is going to decimate that budget come february and

march, we are going to need the $30 million or whatever else they are going to cut, and where does the $13 million come from? general fund reserves? one of our key structural problems is that we are constantly trying to fix what the federal government fails to do and what the state fails to do, and as a result, core city services get ignored. we have to focus on the core city services. i absolutely agree these are wonderful services that need to be protected, but you know what? we have tens of millions of wonderful city services that are definitely over responsibility. this is sacramento's responsibility. we cannot keep picking up the ball from them when we are dropping the ball on our city responsibilities. supervisor mirkarimi: very quotable. i agree. i want to follow on our discussion, talking with the mayor's office. it is good to line up what the all looks are. i do not think any of us would disagree that this is

sacramento's mess we are having to shoulder. however, in this case, it is the people of san francisco's mess and harm that is being caused that we have to shoulder, and i think we are trying to figure out the options. it sounds like there are very few if none. >> at the moment, the department are working to transition as many of these needy families and kids on to the available slots in some other way. that would minimize the impact on those families. i certainly could get back to you next week at the beginning of the week about the specific details of what a plan might look like, but i do not have numbers in front of me today or a systemic outlined. but i think it is a conversation that will be happening over the next several days and would be happy to work with you on it. supervisor mirkarimi: ok, thank you.

>> i am going to continue on slide 7, where i just have a few comments on the property tax. i think we have basically covered that the year and was about $18 million before the projection because of some late fundamental assessments. the secured growth was 5% higher than anticipated as a result of those late assessments that were impact enrolled. as i mentioned, we are projecting an $18 million surplus after setting aside a certain amount for appeals. we do not yet have the total number for 2010. the assessment appeals board is still entering the appeals into their database. i hope that in a few weeks we will have a better picture of the universe, although we will not know until we get decisions and know how much people are receiving. chairperson avalos: last year, the appeals board hired

additional staff or transferred staff. is that happening again this year, because there has been a high volume of appeals that came in? >> i believe they are hiring additional temporary staff, perhaps not as severely year, which is why we are getting a letter result on this. going over the department to results -- departmental results, the most significant is the shortfall in the hospital fee, the new state program that assesses fees on private hospitals and allows the state to draw down additional federal funds and return some of those revenues to the public as well as the private hospitals. there is still -- there have been developments on that that reduce the retroactivity, which is why the department has said there is at least a shortfall of $26.50 million.

more of those funds remain uncertain, as we will mention in another slide. on the fmap, the federal medical assistance percentage, that was reduced somewhat. they did in have some of their funds, and their estimate was met. from our uncertain revenues, the mental health state plan amendment, the department is telling us, is still not complete, but is likely to have reduced retroactivity. the one departmental expenditure item that was reported was staffing at the sheriff's department. at this stage, we are anticipating a $4 million shortfall there and potential need for something in that area if no other measures are taken in that area to reduce the shortfall. finally, there is an item related to federal policy around the human services agency employment and training program,

resulting in a $1.70 million shortfall. on the plus side, we have refinancing savings on our debt service, resulting in $2.70 million to the good. that will make that $38 million category. the next slide is a summary on our uncertain revenues. the largest items were the hospital fee and the federal medical assistance percentage and the mental health state plan amendment. of these, we have strong confidence on the final number of the enhanced federal medical assistance percentage, because that was approved by congress. the hospital fees still requires final approval. it is looking good, according to the department, but there is uncertainty about formulas, uncertainty about the total amount of money we will get, which we are estimating a $13 million range in what we might receive there. on the mental health state plan

amendment, that is delayed in terms of its process. there is a lot more uncertainty around it. i think it is likely it will be less than the maximum that was assumed. the remaining $8.60 million is still regarded as uncertain. supervisor elsbernd, you mentioned the hotel tax revenues. there was $6 million assume from that. we are regarding that as uncertain until next week. we will see what happens. there are a few small items, as with the impound account and the cigarette lighter abatement fee which is still in litigation. -- the cigarette litter abatement fee which is still in litigation. chairperson avalos: there is a pending -- i will talk to you about it off line, actually. >> there have been questions about the rainy day reserve. i added a table that was not in the report to summarize how we get to the $33 million level.

you can see here that at the start of last year we were looking at $98 million and the budget withdrew half of that, $49 million, for the city, and a quarter of the preschool district. that would have left $24.60 million. thanks to higher than anticipated year-end revenues, which rose so we could only withdraw $50 million, we did not withdraw $15 million we thought we would. we budgeted this year $6.10 million to the school district and $12.30 million to the city. according to current revenue projections, we are right at the withdrawal limit of the reserves. if we have exactly what is forecast, we will not be eligible to withdraw. we are assuming that $3.20 million will not be withdrawn from the reserves for next year. if in fact our revenues are

reduced this year, then that would again allow for the trigger of withdrawal from the reserve in this year. if we have bad revenue news, the order would be that first you could withdraw up to the $12.30 million that was budgeted from rainy day reserves, and if it was more than that, you could look at general reserves to cover that if there were not other measures to be taken. if you get bad expenditure news, that would not allow withdrawal from the rainy day fund, though the general fund could be used. finally, the bottom line from this is that the current year budget remains balanced as it is now, given these cautions. if the $30 million in uncertain revenues are received and there are no other major developments, the $25 million general fund remains intact and the rainy day fund is not needed. but as you well know, with the

school year budget shortfall, it remains a major challenge. supervisor mirkarimi: that was slightly adjusted a few weeks ago. can you repeat the number again of the deficit? >> the's -- the controller's office has not done a final projection. i prefer to leave that to the mayor's office if they would like to provide an updated number. supervisor mirkarimi: go ahead. >> through the chair, i think our current estimate is that the budget shortfall is in neighborhood of $450 million. however, we have not finalized the budget deficit number for fiscal year 11-12 and will be revising that estimate over the last month. we cannot agree at the end of november or the beginning of december with budget instruction

and a projected deficit. our hope is that the positive, slightly positive, revenue trends we are seeing in this report will carry forward into the budget year, and that might reduce the deficit somewhat, but i think we are still cautious with the numbers. supervisor elsbernd: and the budget office and controller's office are aware of the demographic changes to the actuarial analysis that more than likely will take the employer cost higher? >> i think the short answer is yes. supervisor elsbernd: good, ok. chairperson avalos: mr. levenson, thank you very much. we can open this up for public comment. we will close public comment.

this we will continue to the call of the chair without objection. and i believe that was our last item. we are adjourned.

>> good morning, everyone. i see bright smiles on faces. can anyone guess what i do? raise your hand. what do you think i do? jimore? what is your question? close. police officers wear uniforms. chef, wow. what about you? a bodyguard. what is your name? firefighter. exactly. my name is joanne. i am a firefighter.

i came into the department in 1990. none of you were born. maybe your teacher was. i am the fire chief. i have been working as the fire chief for almost seven years. mayor gavin newsom appointed me as the fire chief about seven years ago. today is a really important day. does anybody know what we're about to get ready to do? a fire drill. you are close. an earthquake drill. fire drill, earthquake drill. is the same message, everybody needs to be prepared. we're working closely to make sure we keep each and everyone of you, your families, your school, and your home is safe. the big message today is that in san francisco, we have to be prepared for an earthquake. one of the ways we do it is to

prepare ourselves by having a drill. every october, is a really important month for disaster preparedness. in 1989, there was a large earthquake in san francisco. we learned a lot of lessons from the earthquake. [unintelligible] thank you. [laughter] there are a couple of people i wanted to introduce. i wanted to introduce sncc hennessy -- nick tennessee, in charge of the emergency number. the director of 911 is here with us as well as one of my colleagues, battalion chief jose vella. we also have someone else who works closely with 911. i want to say that this is one of the best parts of my job, to

come out and talk to the students. we hope that you will learn something about how important is to practice and be prepared. what you are going to do today is a drop, cover, and hold drill. you will then exit to a designated area. we want you to go home and tell your families about what you have learned and prepare a plan for your own home. what the plan would be, how he would meet with everyone, and so forth. talk to your families and educate them. you are students and will be like a teacher to teacher families things that you will learn and practice today. would you like to say anything to the children? >> you did a great job on the first drill. i was here for it. let's see you do that again. remember to hold on when you get under the best -- desk this

time. wait for the signal. i am very impressed with all of you. i can see why you thought she was a chef because you have been talking about food all morning. >> it is getting close to 10:21. there will be something under public address system here at school. this is a siren. you will not be scared by it. every tuesday at noon, this siren goes off. it is a test of the emergency warning system. today is a special day. it is 10:21 on october 21. we're getting ready for the drill. the mayor is coming to say hello to everybody. we have mayor gavin newsom saying hello to the fourth graders. welcome to alamo fourth grade. you are right on time.

we have a wonderful teacher in fourth grade. >> what does that mean? what do we do? do we start? >> not yet. i believe we're waiting for the prompt from the schools so that everyone can do it coordinated. >> the chief tells me what to do. always pay attention to the fire chief. >> here we go. >> please duck, cover, and hold. >> good job. is there any room for me? [laughter] what do we do? ok. is this real? this is a drill.

>> it is still shaking. [rattling] >> this is a long earthquake. [laughter] [rattling] >> you are doing a great job. listen to your teachers. >> attention, this is the all clear for the emergency drills. please exit the building at this time. >> it is time to evacuate. the job. -- good job. walk. do not run.

>> no running. >> [excited chatter] >> be careful. here is what i am going to do. here is the deal.

i am going to sign all of these. you are all going to get one. here is how we're going to do it. she is like the leader. she is like the president. we have to respect the president. she is going to give them to you. she is very strict. [excited chatter] ♪

>> around me what you see is an exhibition bien asian american women artist association. one of my favorites is cheers to muses which is a variety of sculpture, paintings and photographs in which the artists not only show their own work but talk about the muses who inspired them. coming up we have a variety of exhibitions celebrating diversity and performances and every first thursday we have an opening in our main gallery. >> what kinds of organizations

utilize your affordable space progr program? >> there's a huge range. last week des president clinton divas had a drag fashion show. the united states of asian american festival has events here every career as does the national career arts festival. in recent years homies organizing the empower youth had one of their first large scale neighborhood events. >> i think of it as multi-generational i see artists who are emerging and young and community members that may be from in college to, you know, some of the old-timers that have been around a long time. i think that is special about this organization. >> it shows work by more than 1,000 bay area visual artists each year and collaborates through the programs with between 60 and 90 nonprofit cuur