city- wide housing prices over the long term? >> that was calculated by looking at the elasticity of demand. as well as the impact of a change in quantity supplied pricing. it is a mathematical formula whereby a look at the increase in the city's inventory of 2.5%. a factor to that, about 2% in value upon full completion in 2013, 2032. supervisor kim: have we seen that with increased housing supply? >> there are a lot of factors.

we have been in a long decline for the past couple of years, but that seems to be leveling out. stabilizing. this does not take factors such as the fluctuations we have seen in the short term into account. it is a way to estimate the impact, going from 235,000 units to 230,000 units, implied by the percentage amount and the econometric formula. supervisor kim: i just wonder if san francisco is in a unique position where demand continues to come even from outside the city. without necessarily decrease in housing prices here. >> we are not saying that this

will lead to reductions in housing prices, but what we saw during the housing bubble in san francisco, despite the fact that we were producing a huge amount of housing by our standards, it was going up by 10% per year. it did not mean that the laws of supply and demand had been suspended, but we are basically bending the curve by 2% rather than driving prices down. supervisor kim: so, if city prices continue to rise, we will see a decrease from that decrease. let's again, that 2% savings is a positive in terms of the economic impact. that value is funneled into other sectors.

one of the final factor is that we look that was determining how the development would affect the property tax base. upon completion in 2030 or so, we projected a $25 billion increase in assessed value, which explains the units that would not be taxable. i have included here a blurb about property taxes and how they are allocated city-wide. we get about 65% of the 1% base tax rate with the balance going to schools and other local jurisdictions under the proposed financing plan.

57% of the space would be allocated to the eye of the with 10% used for affordable housing. the remainder would be to support the issue of bonds used instead of tax commitments and redevelopment tax increases. this means a% allocated to city funds, which the comptroller would determine, that allocation of 8%, how much to this fund and how much to city funds. finally, this is a summary of the major economic impacts that i went over, including one time impacts, presented as an annual average. 1100 direct or indirect employment opportunities.

2800 attributed to the non- residential component of the island. and then the increase in housing supply, price impacts in the city. about 2200 jobs until we have about 5300 jobs on average. $2.4 billion in economic output during the projection for 2015. that concludes my presentation, if there are any other questions. supervisor chu: in terms of cash flow to the city of the taxes that, in, this is relevant considering that we are considering the potential diversion in what it might look like. can you tell me about the tax revenue that we are expecting over time?

>> i have that. >> you are talking about property-tax revenue in the general fund? supervisor mirkarimisupervisor y tax revenue. the buildup at 8% is that about $350,000 per year. >> about $3.8 million at bill dealt. -- billed out. that number would be upwards of

$25 billion in property taxes. 65 cents would be $25 million, annually. but the 8% is about $3.3 million. supervisor chu: let's go to the budget analysts report. if i that as members of the public, if you have cell phones, please turn them off. what we have prepared a detailed report for the city's commission. the summary begins on page 60. we will point out just a few items. we have been advised that the general fund, on page 17 we have

pointed out that because of recent changes in financing from state redevelopment financing it has resulted in $130 million less revenue for this project. the revenue authority has proposed market rate housing units to offset the reduction. we also point out under the files, according to the analysis from the economic planning systems, the treasure island first 20 years are projected to generate $270 million in gross general fund revenues in cost. a net estimated general fund revenue totaled of approximately $80 million.

and then, under file 110289, subsidies of at least $12,750,000 would go to tie dye to develop a low rate market for parcels in the treasure island community development. under 110290, committing funds with interest and additional consideration for conveyance of the property. over all these are four files that have fiscal impact out of 11 before the board. the other seven did not have direct fiscal impact and we consider these to be policy members for the supervisors. supervisor chu: without

questions at this moment, let's open this up for public comment. i know that i have a number of speaker cards. [reads cards] please come up and line up in the center aisle if you have heard your name. you can use that microphone. let's we are a member of tied died -- >> we are a member of tied died. it has been a home for a number of veterans in transitional housing.

it has been a lifesaver. i want to say that what has been important to us has been leveraging the government program. we have seen the veterans health division providing case management. as they have already done in the program. providing funds for a special safety considerations. but that virtue you invite these federal partners with a campaign to eliminate homeless veterans, making themselves more available with more resources. not just veterans affairs, but section 8, the department has made more work force investment dollars available. these will eventually partner and bring these to bear. no one is perfect, but there are

so many exciting opportunities it is incredible. i want to mention that something like to point million veterans have served, and they have health issues. they could benefit dramatically by housing and development and jobs that were created. obviously this is a very veteran fed -- veteran from the journey begin a journey. >> -- journey.

>> i have a home now. the council there are great people. now i have my health of that -- together and i have a place to stay. thanks to supervisor chu[uninte] thank you. >> thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak with you, supervisors. i got involved in treasure island 11 years ago. in 2003 and joined the board of tied died. in 2005, the citizens abies report. that is only 11 years.

i am here to obviously state my support and talk the executive director of title i, who has been involved since they won. for those that do that note, we are the treasure island homeless development initiative. community living partnership, swords to plowshares, we are here to support moving the project forward. turning the project into a reality, including 435 units for homeless people.

25% of the jobs are targeted for homeless sentences in. tie dyeing is in full support of the project as it is providing real opportunity from the ground up for a new life for current and future residents. we urge your support. thank you for this opportunity. >> [unintelligible] serving low-income people throughout the city. while disappointed, we do support the project and the proposal to pursue inflation.

having been on the island since 1997, we have faced multiple barriers to employment. individuals in this program typically include the training and placing with permanent jobs resulting in job brokerage programs and contracting opportunities. community-based organizations and the u.s. coast guard, making sure that future opportunities will be there on the island preventing local barriers to employment. thank you.

>> i just want to reiterate what was just said. we are in strong support of the treasure island project because of a comprehensive housing job opportunities san franciscans. as well as contract and opportunities that steve just mentioned for nonprofit social ventures. we urge you to move this project forward. thank you. >> i stand before you as a success story through walden house. then i joined the to live janitorial program, which helped me with my tools & training programs.

by entering into joint belly catering. through my experiences i have also had the opportunities to place my daughter in daycare, one of the best in san francisco. i am grateful that my daughter is there. i wanted to say that what the island has provided for me by a redevelopment has been like changing. i can only imagine what the island will do for me. thank you for hearing me. >> dave alexander asked me to but in the head of him. rubicon strongly favors the development of treasure island and the treasure island

initiative. we have been offering landscaping services to treasure island since 1992. creating long-term jobs, we focus on individuals with similar barriers. most of them that come to us have considerable difficulty elsewhere. the recent issues that have come to us, health, stamina, mental illness under developmental disabilities, coping skills and social skills, prior criminal convictions, housing issues, ongoing legal issues, in substance abuse. if that helps me to find a

steady support of environment for complete medical and other benefits and job training, specifically in landscaping responsibilities. thank you very much. supervisor chu: thank you very much. i'm going to call a few more names. [reading names] bu>> nine years ago, i was at rk bottom, homeless, jobless. they gave me the skills to keep treasure island clean and green, and i'm also lucky enough to live there. thank you. supervisor chu: thank you. next speaker. >> good morning. i m executive director of

catholic cheerios -- catholic charities cio. support 200 formerly homeless families on the island as well, and i would like to speak on behalf and in support of these projects, and how important they are in the community. i would also like to speak in support of an advocate for the 160 families who today are on the waiting list for shelter in our community. we also run one of three family shelters in the community, and there are only a bit in and families currently supported in the shelter system. another 167 on the waiting list. when we consider that this project will add to the number of permanent homes available for formerly homeless families, it is an incredible opportunity for us to make a difference in our community, and we urge that you support this project. thank you. >> good afternoon. i am a client at walden house on

treasure island. unfortunately, it to present to get me sober, but walden house taught me to -- had showed me how to cope with life and show up for life on life's terms. i become an independent woman. i have got a job. i have got my self-esteem back, more self confidence. upon completion of the program, i have been offered to go into the sober living program, which is 11 more months on the island, to continue my recovery i am going to take the opportunity to go back to school. they are supportive of that choice. if it were not for this program, i would not be the one and i am today. i am here in support of this

development, and i hope you go forward with it to help more women like me that want to change their lives. thank you. >> good afternoon, supervisors. eric brooks representing san francisco green party and the local grassroots organization. i want to call to your attention something that neither the controller nor the budget analyst raised in a potential liability to the city. this project is rife with such liabilities because the developers are externalizing costs to get rid of costs they would have to pay for and putting those on the general fund. here is the prime example, and it has to do with tsunami is. i sent you an e-mail on this. the key quotation from the coastal and there for the project, on april 11, he said, "we also recognize that lower

probability events could occur. that has been published recently in inundation maps for the san francisco bay. we recognize those are emergency scenario planning rather than for design became what he is referring to is the case of a major japan-like tsunami coming from alaska. in other words, you could look at the design plans and look at the eir. a tsunami that would be 10 feet or higher is not included in the design of the project. what he was saying is that that is an emergency problem. it is so rare that we do not have to prepare for it in the design plan. and what this means to the general fund is that if such a tsunami happened and created a 10-foot or higher tied surge to treasure island, all the expense of dealing with that would be on the city. that means that what the budget analyst said about $80 million coming to the city would be wiped out, and there were be

hundreds of millions of dollars of expenses above that. this also applies to transportation. instead of lowering the population, instead of doing things that would keep it from being a problem, they are going to burden the south of market area with massive traffic problems. that is another expense to the city that is not in the equation. supervisor chu: thank you. >> good afternoon, board. i am the owner of one valley catering, and we have a the billion by the bay on treasure island. i have been catering there for about 10 years and have had offices there for the last three. we participate in the tihdi jobs brookridge program. we have had 60 island residents is through this program since we have implemented it, and we just provide jobs for real people who live on the island, and we think it is a very successful program,

and we encourage you to support it because we only see it growing as the economic project grows. we're just urging you for your support. thank you. >> good afternoon. walden house has worked in partnership with the treasure island homeless development initiative for the past nine years, providing a list of services to women and children. services we provide include vocational and educational opportunities, assistance, housing and family reunification. due in part to the privilege of our location, we have excellent outcomes and low recidivism rates, and you have had the opportunity to hear from some of our success stories today. we urge you to support this moving forward with the project, providing helping and treatment opportunities to current and future residents of the island. thank you. >> good afternoon, supervisors. i am with san francisco bicycle

coalition. you have probably heard in other hearings there has been a lot of work on this project, and the bike coalition is very proud to have been involved for years really hear it with our partners at the public health department, we conducted a community transportation plan to make sure that the streetscape on the island is at a maximum of pedestrian and bicycle friend is, and we are pleased with the outcome of that. we also have been very involved with planning for access to the island through congestion pricing and worked with assembly member leno's office to bring forward legislation to create the first congestion pricing district in the state. this, we think, is a very real and very meaningful way to control the access you have heard other speakers talk about. the constraints of access would vehicles to the island. it is a real concern, but we believe that with congestion

pricing beginning at $5 as a told to leave the island, but ratcheting up as necessary, did $7, $8, $9, $10, is a very real way to a meter that access on and off the island. again, we bring you our support. we cannot speak to other larger financial issues. we really limit our comments to the transportation aspects, but we are very confident and comfortable moving this project forward. thank you. supervisor chu: thank you. >> good afternoon, supervisors. i currently facilitate security for community housing partnership for cypress security on treasure island. it has been a great opportunity to work with them and other non profits on the island. i would like at this time to say let's please move forward, keep treasure island growing, the nonprofits and their clients. thank you. supervisor chu: thank you.

i'm going to call a few more names. [reading names] . >> good afternoon, supervisors. in a member of the citizens advisory board, but today, i speak as a market rate resident of treasure island and hopefully a future market rate resident of treasure island. we as a market rate people, enjoy having the program people out there. it has been a real positive to see them grow, and we want to continue to see that happen. as a disabled person, i also see the affordable housing as a chance for more people to be able to live out there, so i would encourage you to move this program forward. thank you. supervisor chu: [reading names]