creating a high-density district around the terminal is a huge sustainable goal in itself. it is a very comprehensive approach to the planning this district. we have changes in land use, of course, densities, hyde said. -- heights. we have proposals for expanding the historic district. we have a plan for financing the improvement the plan calls for. it is important to recognize that the density being proposed allowed many of the public amenities to be funded through the plant itself. these densities can create land value capture that the plan itself can pay for much, if not all, of the amenities. at the same time, provide a very

substantial contribution to the terminal and the tunnel. it is also a important, i think, there is always discussion and angst and san francisco about a very tall buildings. this is not about creating high rises for the sake of high- rises. the goal of this plan is for high density environment connected to high-density transit. for capturing that revenue for the transit and public amenities to go forward. i think it is important to remember that this is a plan that is proposing highrises in a place they are today. this is simply growing up instead about. there are five good reasons to move forward. i would like to talk about that a little bit. one is the regional growth issue. we have felt for a long time that the city must accept its share of regional growth.

the most sensible way to do it is in high-density environments like this. we are the heart of a region of what is nearly 8 million people. the sustainable community strategy projections is that -- asking the city to accept 16% of the regional job growth and about 13% of regional housing growth. for the heart of a region of 8 million people, that does not seem like a lot. but it is 175,000 jobs and 81,000 housing units. over a 25-year period. this plan allows us, i believe, to except that growth in a part of the city where it makes the

most sense. it allows us to except a substantial part of that growth in a way that does not affect lower density neighborhoods and is not -- and does our part. we really do believe that office capacity is needed in the city. the city has spent a decade creating substantial housing capacity in high-density neighborhoods. we need to do something about office capacity because we are reaching a point where we are reaching the capacity for new office development. remember, it is interesting, because of the zoning right now, 80% of the city is owned for industrial use. that is a very small percentage. the city has the same number of jobs as it had in the 1980's. it is largely because of the jobs that were lost to heavy

manufacturing were replaced by jobs in the downtown offices and in medical services and institutions. that is why the market has supported a loss of that shift -- has supported millions of square feet of office space during that time. because of that, there is limited capacity for additional growth. it is also worth mentioning the discussion we have been happening about the types of office users. we have been talking a lot about firms that want to be in the city, but did not want to be in a downtown high-rise. that is playing out in south of market right now with a lot of the tech companies. that is the basis for why we are doing this plan to focus on that type of use. it is also clear that there is a market for both. when we look at cities and other parts of the country right now, seattle, chicago, new york,

there is a substantial amount of high rise office growth going on right now. decisions like salesforce, part of the reason they wanted to be downtown was because of the adjacency to transit. that was very clear in their decision making process. we believe there is a substantial market for downtown high-rises, as well as the lower rise, larger floor space buildings that some technology companies are looking for. the plan addresses the issue of historic districts and landmarks. the preservation commission yesterday and initiated action to expand the conservation district, the new second street montgomery preservation district, and initiated landmarking of several buildings in that area. i think it's fair to say, this

plan creates what i think is a better skyline. this is a side benefit of what we're talking about. the city's skyline is benched out at a point at about 600 feet. if you look at our skyline and its relationship to the typography, i believe san francisco skyline is unique in terms of its being a mound of white towers on that hill that is quite distinctive. it accentuate that form by raising the height and the center of that amount -- mound to aid the state -- a position that is more distinctive than it is today. finally, we are creating a much improved and much-needed street scape environment. it is far more firmly to pedestrians, and 11 acres of new open space. in this part of town, that has

not kept pace with development. the sidewalks are inadequate, there is no public open space in this part of town. this has been a big part of the discussion and plan for this area is to make sure we are widening sidewalks, creating the connections, and making sure the open spaces and the streetscapes reflect the importance of this district. the sheer number of people will be walking on the streets. i do believe this is the right place and right time for this plan. we have struck the right balance between the benefits of creating a new district with some of the impacts, such as transportation, in a way that continues to make the city a dynamic place. it's a building will come before you, as they always have, and we will -- and will present its own

set of challenges to the department, the commission, and the public. we will be able to analyze it in the context of this larger planning effort. unless you have questions, i will turn it over to joshua. he will go over some of the questions you had last time. as well as the approvals we are asking you to take. >> good afternoon, commissioners. the director reminded you of the schedule. yesterday, we were here at the historic preservation commission, which initiated certain actions related to article 11 and conservation districts. today, we are here to initiate general plan, the planning code, and zoning map amendments.

we will be back here on the 24th. after that, the commission will again hear their items for auction recommendation to the board of supervisors. today, we will cover a couple of items. the commissioners brought up last session, on the 19th. the first is a little bit more detail on our growth and office demand issues. i will provide a few more numbers to bob illustrate the points. some this -- to help illustrate the points. the shadow analysis that was done on the future buildings, bo b is here to provide some detail on the schedule and funding for the transit center in downtown rail extension project.

let me back up to walk you through the various items before you. in terms of growth, the director talked about the sustainable community strategy numbers. i have drawn up. some of the numbers in terms of department analysis. these numbers have involved a bit over the last couple of years. -- evolves a bit over the last couple of years. when we did this analysis three or four years ago, we looked at a couple of different scenarios. continued growth as generally trended and the past. others, it was a more smart growth approach. of the 170,000 jobs the director mentioned, a majority of those, over half are likely to be office jobs.

we are likely to see 100,000 office jobs in the city in the next 25 years. that translates to a substantial amount of space. it would represent about a third increase of the city's current office staff. this represents maintaining the city's existing share of regional jobs. it does not represent an increase. it is holding steady, which is a fairly aggressive policy driven luck that the region is helping to shape. -- policy-driven block of the region is hoping to shape. what those numbers mask is a growth of office jobs. the decline of the heavy manufacturing sector. it has manifested downtown.

the job picture is on the rise, i'm sure you've all seen the news of the past couple of years. in doing this analysis, we parsed the numbers for there to see how much of those jobs would tend to be downtown. that would be a subset of the total picture. in a smart growth scenario, we would estimate over 20 million square feet of office space would be needed in the broader downtown area to accommodate the growth that is projected. again, only 12% of the city's land even allows office space at all. in much of those areas, office space does compete with other uses. as opposed to 80% of the city,

which is zoned for housing. we currently have a small share of the city to work with in order to accommodate these regional projections. even within that, looking at the area where we do allow jobs in the downtown, south of markets, we have an increasingly constrained potential development sites remaining. the transbay district being one of the largest concentrations of development space in the area. this plan seeks to take advantage of that. because of its proximity to the major regional transit. and then we further look to see if this is the general production cut 20 million square feet of office space, what is the capacity to absorb this? we looked at the zoning capacity of the area. we try to project out of a certain percentage billed as offices, billed as housing.

-- built as offices, billed as housing. what it showed was that we have about half of the capacity under current zoning to absorb this 20 million square feet of office space. that is a metal bar on that charge. it represents a scenario -- middle bar on the chart. we have about 10 million square feet of capacity for growth for office space. this plan would bump backed up by 2.5 million square feet of capacity. it does not get us up to the 20 million square feet that we think we would need, but it gets us 20% of the way there. the department is undertaking other efforts to look at other potential augmentations for the

job capacity of the downtown. this is an incremental process. this plan is one component of the overall picture. when it comes to housing, we do have very substantial housing capacity due to recent planning efforts to meet the original forecast. we have more than enough housing capacity under current zoning. that concludes the details on the jobs and housing picture. i am happy to answer any questions. the next topic that the commission asked us to go into was regarding potential shadow impacts in the downtown as a result of development. this analysis is all contained in the draft eir, which was published in september. i will be going over what it says the impacts will be of

these buildings. the plan area itself, which is south of market, does not contain any part properties -- park properties. the closest open space is some distance from the plan. at union square, st. mary's, they are 2000 or more feet from any of these buildings that would be built. some are substantially greater than half a mile away. what that means is that while some of these shadows may reach some of these spaces, they do so in fairly limited instances. it happens in the early morning hours. when the sun is low in the sky and the shadows are cast very long. that means the shadows move swiftly. by the time the sun is rising,

buildings are some distance away, so these shadows are sweeping across portions of those open spaces. in addition to the limited duration and extent of the shadows, there is a physical reality that is not captured in the technical analysis. the shadows will be -- is not as if these buildings are adjacent to these open spaces and casting dark shadows. they are some distance away. that is something that is not captured in the analysis. the potential and >> described in the eir are likely to be overstated. -- in the eir -- the potential

impacts described in the eir are likely to be overstated. what the eir did was to take boxes of some reasonable bulk and project them up to heights in the plant. -- in the plan. the shadow impacts are likely to be more crude and overstated. we will all work together with the sponsors to minimize any shadow impacts to the maximum extent possible. to run through the four major open spaces. the first -- this is the only

open space where some of the new shadow would not be in the early-morning hours. this would be in the early afternoon. up on the screen, you see two images. this shows already shattered might fall on a particular minutes -- shadow might fall on a particular minute. this is a useful way to grasp at the totality and the perspective on the overall amount of the shadow that might be cast by these buildings. it creates a simple grid. 100% of the potential sunlight, the blue shading is the existing shadow load on that open space. the plaza is covered by shadows, 37.6% of the year during the daylight hours. combined, all the buildings in the planning area, 0.1%

additional shallowed to the 37.6%. one thing to note about the plaza, if you look closely, one of the primary buildings that reaches the park is the transit tower. it is the crown of the tower that is reaching the open space. we believe we can substantially address this issue. per the calculation, they're both theoretically be some shadows. in terms of union square, potential shadow, 5 and 60 minutes a day depending on the days of the year.

mid-spring to early fall. the potential additional shadows would be 0.2%. the park would have a shot of 38.5%. if you look at the graphic, the shadows would hit the southwest and northwest corners of the park. that time of day, that is the time in which the shadows would fall. sometimes, it is as little as five minutes. at most, there is a one-hour window. portsmouth square, early- morning, 30 minutes up to one hour. in the late fall and a very early winter. the potential saving is about 0.4%.

added to the 39% that is there now. the last open space is st. mary's square. similar to portsmouth square, it would be affected the same months of the year. late fall to early winter. maximum duration of 20 to 30 minutes in the early morning. that potential shadow is quite small, 0.09%. there is a chart to in the eir, it is quite complex with a lot of information, it summarizes all these numbers. there is about five open spaces that are potentially affected. they all have a very small potential shading, less than

0.01%. some of these parts do not have quantitative windows set for them. some do. the deliberation on those limits would come before the planning commission's in the future. lastly, again, to emphasize the plan itself would help create substantial amounts of open space downtown either directly or through funding assistance. the plan would result in the creation of over 11 acres of a new open space. on top of that, it would provide over $30 million of additional funding for open space

improvements -- $13 million of additional funding for open space. there'll be additional funding to improve some of these open spaces. let me turn it over for a couple of minutes to bob. he will walk you through some of the questions on the transit center itself. >> thank you, commissioners. it is a pleasure to be here with you again today. to give the one update on where we are, both are project schedule and funding status, and i wanted to take the opportunity to thank the planning department and the planning staff for the work they have done. the diagram on the screen and

shows the components of the program. the overall scope of the program is broken into two phases. those phases are structured on the availability of funding. in the first phase, we first constructed the temporary terminal, which is the turquoise box. that is where we relocated the bus operations when we began construction of the old terminal. also in the first phase, we will be constructing the transit center building itself at first and mission streets. the bus ramps connecting the transit center back to the bay bridge to a storage facility between second and third streets underneath the west approach to the bay bridge. that facility will be for the

transit buses to lay over during the day rather than heading back to the east bay. the second phase of the program includes the downtown rail extension, which begins at seventh and townsend and drops below undercount in st. and moves on to second street and up into the transit center. it will also include the finished out of the lower two levels of the transit center for rail operations. you see a cross section of the transit center that we are designing. there are five levels, plus the rooftop park. the lowest to levels -- two levels, part of phase one, so that we can fit them out for real operations in phase two. the ground level occupies almost

four city blocks. there is a mezzanine level but has some backup functions. the elevated bus? -- bus deck. and then the park on top of the transit center. just a few renderings on the status of design. this is an image on the south side of the station, which would be converted to a pedestrian mall. an image of the transit center with the rooftop park. our phase one construction schedule includes the portion we are currently engaged in, the excavation portion of construction. if you have been down to the site recently, the west end, we

are down about 20 feet below. we will be continuing the excavation from west side to the east side of the transit center. late this year, we will begin construction of the below grade portions of the transit center, bringing that structure back up to grade, and erecting the steel superstructure of the building. from there, we will move into the exterior closures, the landscaping, interior finishes, and the side work. at the bottom portion of the screen, i have been dtx construction. i showed that as starting late 2014. that is how quickly we can move into phase to if we're able to fully fund phase two. from there, it will be about a seven-year period.

here is another image of the downtown extension, the importance of the transit center in bringing both caltrain and california high-speed rail passengers to the downtown core. as compared with the existing caltrans station vacation. here you see an image of the real extension over the old 1863 shoreline of san francisco. down along townsend st., we will be excavating in what was the former mission bay, and moving along third street going into the land side of the old shoreline into the western end of the transit center. of the transit center. as you can see from this image,