eye which give us the data but if we project out within bounds we can see that ail 3 are going to go up it's located in i think i'm sure you're aware of it's applied in our minutes with compliment change we have to do two things simultaneously we need to produce green house gas emissions but that won't stop the sea level rising even though the world stopped it today sea level is the rise their regarding two different thrusts as your report indicated in july we have to get this perfect the sea level lag time because it is in the ocean. and the last draft to show you that the projects for sea level rise in the scientific reports

are low this the preservation for sea level rise for 1990 what can happen by now i've cut it off at the year 2014 and we redid the projects from the i pcc from the paper on sea level rice rise in 2012 they did the projects again >> he is green lines are narrower and higher as they keep doing it we can look at how inadequate accurate where they those are the best scientific data the redlining is a smooth out trend like that you can see at the top or even above some of the projects so just in the last decade or two the best sequence of science has if anything been low in terms of what can happen

that sea level that's the proof the scientists are not intaekt many people say they are their cache but to plan to earthquake or fire safety we go overboard to say what could happen here we're going to do the opposite we're not counting the worse case because we don't know. to close the insurance industry look at this and study it big time their geneva association to close in a study they did for the reassurance and insurance industry was the warming of the oceans ocean warming is effecting causing a shift towards a new normal even if the green house gas emissions stop

tomorrow the ocean wavrm will increase the traditional approaches solely bans on the data failed to show today's probabilitys and due to the limit of the scientific precinct ability the extreme events is ambiguous this is not what we want to hear put more research on that. as a consequence the aerial modeling became an essential part of management we're in a different era. so again, this is not to dispute what you've heard with the work of the committee i think they've done a good job but i'm asking you put in prospective in their own words the science is changing and if we look at the

last 10 or 20 years the increases keep happening if we're to think ahead of the trend to design and invest for the future we need to try and get heads of the curve the good news this is not a problem that can hit tomorrow like an earthquake or storm or tsunami a slow problem a slow emergency that is a photograph from a town in in determining lands to show you that faced with storm surge and river flooding you berm or levy is 10 e.r. 12 feet above the beach and the building heights another four or five feet there's a wash through no equipment they've got thirty

feet above the sea level by bold design and building regulations it didn't happen overnight it takes a farsighted design and my last imagine you've seen the gates of recording dam harbor i've been there and maybe some of you have it was part of the dutch coastal defenses put into place because of the terrible storm in 1954 that killed a lot of people. and this billion dollars structure was to protect rotterdam harbor it was in the delta works program they know the design as a wrong they allowed for one foot of sea level rise because back when they designed this is in the

1980s nobody thought we could get that sea level rise so the design criteria were inadequate and they get it their ahead of us in jerry but until 10 years ago they didn't understand what could happen with the sea level rise this structure will have to be replaced so out of that understanding and my colleague and friend will travis will bring this do the bay area your real issues how to redesign a waterfront that's been here over one hundred years when i walked into the street of one hundred and thirty years i think >> 98 so over one hundred-year-old the elevation of the embarcadero was essentially set one hundred and one hundred 40 years ago we're still believe off that same elevation; right?

we now need to think what are they going to say when they look back and is when in the 21st century did they realize that sea level was not statusic. you release that how far you look ahead to things are an investment not written off for underwater our questions about funding are good there's a lot of cities standing in line for federal funding and sea level rise is every place you may want to think cart at that announced $34 billion it they've got worse problems and their building an entire sea level off the mouth of gaga cart they've had 13 feet of sea level rise in the last

thirty years but they're paying for it base they're going to create real estate like the islands in dubai they've created real estate so it would be a bold bold plan i'm not suggesting you're ready for that but inviting you to think ahead as your questions pointed out the waterfront of the san francisco a hundred years from now will be a vital exciting part of the city and this city will be here one hundred years from now, when i say in miami i don't say those years i don't know if miami will not be here one hundred years from now not 2 hundred years you've spoken passionately about our city and the concern that our scientists and planning people and the generalizing with the concerns

because you love this city and thinks why it's a great city and if you ask the hard questions you know what some be our timeframe and vision you have a bigger problem than any past administration you also have a better opportunity to think outside the box i think that so thank you >> (clapping) >> thank you. where to begin after that. ferries public comment >> i don't know. >> sorry. >> travis. >> sorry. >> you're on travis. >> jumped the gun. >> in trouble now.

>> okay. thank you. well john has given you the global and national view of things i'm going to focus on the bay area and particularly san francisco waterfront. as john mentioned san francisco this is the only statistic in which san francisco is afternoon we've had afternoon sea level rise in the behaving we know this because the longest continually operating gage is at

the golden gate as john explained the levels are expected to alert and nobody knows how much this gravel shows between 23 and 25 sea level rise by the end of the century the numbers the precise numbers don't matter such as and the trend to understand the impact of sea level rise in san francisco bay we have to look at the past and here are two pictures aerials of san francisco bay area the one on the left is our beautiful bay today and the one on the right at the time of the 1949 gold rush the bay was much larger it was larger but by the mid of the century a third of the large area was given it was shallow

two-thirds was less deep so it was reclaimed for real estate today, the bay is surround by 2 hundred and 40 square miles of filled land and it was filled just high enough to get that above sea level of the past. so this legacy of filling the bay in the past is a great predict our of what sea level rise could do in the future here's to maps one in the 49 and where it could be at sea level rise in 25 hundred at first blush it is great news all the area had was reclaimed over the past century will be part of our beautiful bay in the future the bad news we built expensive stuff open that low lying real estate clicking things essential

to civilization as we know that let me show you san francisco international airport the light blew it was linked that i the end of the century the airport could be underwater people say i can get the message fly oakland here's oakland international airport this is another icon singularly to civilization this is silicon valley. it faces do i believe jeopardy it used to be the valley felt hearts delight covered with fruit orchard and as the water was what drawn the ground elevation sank and much of the south bay is below sea level this map shows the high tech

companies are located in this low lying area. the map i know illustrates two things first wildlife and guarantees prefer the same habitat and second underlines nefarious a massive flood protection built the it companies so show what the suburbia homeowners what it's like to be underwater the good news is the bay area is among the national leaders 2, 3, 4 planning for sea level rise 4 regional agency are working together with the san francisco bay policy agency to look at the planning and to formulate a sea level strategy. b.c. d.c. has been working with a host of private and public

stakeholders adapting to high rise it's a assessing the vulnerabilities and working on a strategic for the amville and newark this same process is being used by the b.c. d.c. to look at the next planned bay area our regions version of a sustainable community strategy that's required ambassador santa clara county has a project silicon valley 2 point to evaluate the consequences and develop adaptation strategies. u.s. senator dianne feinstein is leading a coalition of business leaders trying to raise a bloidz to protect those corporate

champions and other victims e develops in silicon valley from the despair of flooding in san mateo county there's working with their 20 local jurisdictions to prepare a vulnerability assessment to explore local financing options and to evaluate orchestraal structures for the ongoing efforts the city of san francisco is engaged in this project because a city known part of the city in the airport cups this marin county is using a process to address the flooding problem along the marin shoreline and, of course, i'm sure you're aware of the port is working with all other san

francisco city departments to address sea level rise in the cities and counties city's planning and capital budget processes. while future sea level rise will be a big problem that won't be a slow rise of the average level of the sea will we'll have to deal with first but the extreme level at high tides during storms we've witnessed the king tides there's liar a like a time machine into the future when its usually events weeping we'll have to deal with the storm surge we deal with that when we get high rain and strong widows they come same thing when they blow in from the trappings scientists call them atmospheric rivers and the frequency of

those intense storms to come increase in the future. it's quite possible that a king tied and a storm surge could come at the time that's what happened m when sandy hit new york city the flood planning needs to be are coordinated with our planning for acknowledging other disasters we have to recognize that sea level rise is fundamentally different from other disasters when we perp for flooding and earthquakes we work to reduce the rivals of them happening we try to minimize anywhere destruction and move move to return to normal as quickly as possible >> reducing the green house gas emissions can slow the rate of sea level rise in the future but

can't stop or reverse it ever we park our cars and shut down the power plants and shut off the lights everywhere tests uneventful conventional the sea will continue to rise. whatever elevation target you which i see to work with our protection of san francisco waterfront it's invacuum that that water elevation will vivenl be offering topped so your vision for the san francisco waterfront will be for more important than the sea level i plan for. what this means is that the location of the shoreline from now on into the future will be difficult to grasp.

for the past 6 thousand years let me pop back there - the ideas of a permanently temporary shoreline is difficult to grasp for the past 6 thousand years the architectures or aerlths climate has on stable this coincides with the period when our human being siefks was developing and during this period of time the shoreline has also has been where the shire line was we believe that the shoreline will be where pittsburgh it's also been our species has not had to deal with the shoreline changes or could

move in los angeles police department we're going to have to unwire the hard wooifrg in our brains that connect the words shoreline and permanent we'll have to learn all new ways to plan develop and enjoy and make prosperous use of our shoreline areas to accommodate and adapt to the fact that the shoreline will forever my greatest inland building structures that are planned to last for years is not a good idea those are the kinds of castles we should be building long our shoreline maybe build them like long-term rank camp grounds do we want to live in those that look like r v cage

grounds we have the good future of living in a coast to coast that is separated from the sea by one narrow opening therefore i believe we should investigate building a barrier and golden gate it was one of the winners in the b.c. d.c. sports competition for a temporary barrier a membrane barrier well, it came from dragging hart map who designed our airports. perhaps an off-site tiled barrier could be built innovate design competition builder this could preserve the current waterfront at least for awhile. fwau we also need to think about

new architecture forms that can adapt to the sea level rise like renovating structures that will last for a short period of time and structures that can be built and moved is a good consideration mr. smith come up with that san francisco waterfront was it might look like and gabriel at uc berkley as imagine active ideas surely many other innovative idea approaching the plan how to develop the san francisco waterfront may seem overwhelming but let me offer a few words of solace i hope will make our job easier and the first thing to suggest that i hope provides comfortable is that your

challenges are easier to deal with than the challenges by your predecessors imagine users sitting here in 1914 with the board of state harbor commissioners. upper operating a port encountered to handle cargo operation in much the same way they're used for since you were pleased that the construction of the sea level along the waterfront that began in 1963 was nearing competition you were in the midst of carrying out to strengthen the piers and finish building sheds in the piers for the waterfront you built a railroad the belt line and either adapted a program for architecture decoration to apply the city behalf movement to hide the dangers cargo operation on

the piers it had a hollywood backdrop of things. the harbor commission continued to successfully operate the port through world-class one during the great depression and even to the 1950 in the 1960s something unexpected happened something they never compiled in 1914 the piers became obsolete because your predecessors hadn't anticipated this they tried to play catch up but spelling the last name despite the had your clan pleasures or measures from the san francisco the port of san francisco couldn't catch up in the game of containertion and oakland became the port in the

region so your board ended up having to play a different game and you've focused open transforming a waterfront configured for an obsolete shipping technology into a vibrate commercial entertainment district and i can take great pride you've succeeded so admiringly but if the port commissioners in 114 had known that the facilities they were this or building would have a lifespan of 50 years don't i think they would have made different capital investments sitting here today, the future will bring changes to the san francisco waterfront that will be more profound than the changes by containertion sea level will alter the face of san francisco over the next century. the sea level rise has been

described as being a slow moving emergency or being attacked by a tortoise but you you know the emergency a coming and the attack is starting you're in a much better position to prepare for the disaster you don't have to play catch up your legacy you prepared for the emergency and laid the emergency so far beating back the attack you have to think about how to plan and manage a waterfront that will face the backside of an even growing levy or be composed of situations that will be having be retrofitted or replied but if you begin dealing with the challenge you have to legal and culture advantages over the same problem first, you operate within a legal structure that

compels you to deal with the series of cerebrowaterfront uses you can't uncan you remember the property you can only lease it for fixed parts of time john says all coast property will have to be dealt with as lease properties. you have a jump start by knowing how to apply this new principle of real estate. second you have expensed in managing the types of uses appropriate along a permanently temporary shoreline if you can build on the two advantages as you development a sea level rise for the waterfront and eliminating offer a few recommendations how to best formulate a strategy. first take the lead but don't go it alone we know we can not

expect the embarcadero to be one of the leading things one port makes a sdiblgs and the mta is in favor of the area in between in the same way the port can't be expected to deal with flooding similar when 1st district at large how to get the adaptation measures you think are appropriate don't try to generate the revenue internally with the city logged on at the tip of a peninsula many people in san francisco will be indirectly impacted by sea level rise. all of the city and it's entire population will face indirectly impacts therefore the city's plan for sea level adoption must be a plan fined and implemented

by the entire city not just by the port i've spent my life striving to find the best configuration and the best regional plan based on scientific research careful analysis and this approach has worked well in a world of uncertainty but climate change will make your future considerably uncertain ♪ the face of this uncertainty it might be a good idea to do as little as possible and deal integrally with the sea level rise ahead by kick the can down the road is not a solution but a cop-out think big if creating our broad vision for the