thought we had a better one than between b.c. and d.c. i'm convinced that port staff is great to get along with no big deal the other thing was the sea level rise. particularly raising regional awareness of the problem and that's where i met john england eerie was on a conference in florida a couple i do not recollect years ago and john was in the audience and asked a question and it was clear to me from his question he had a better grasp of sea level rise than the parental i was he was asking the question my next incourt with john was this book by far the best book every written about sea level rise john does an excellent job of taking scientist science and

preparing that in a way i understand it he talked about the implementations of super storm coming ashore in atlanta city and human right atlanta city the thing he did was publish the book a week before the storm. so i think he causes it (laughter) >> he did anything to sell the book. >> yeah. anything to sell the book i'm glad he didn't work on the bicycle he's a great writer with you also more important a better speaker than a writer so i recruited him to come to the bay area to work with me as i was trying to explain sea level rise i found there was a considerable regulation of

people hearing from a bureaucrat using this to administer i thought john could explain it better as a result we've developed a close working relationship he's in the bay area more than anywhere else except his home in florida and the work in washington he appeared and i appeared i was at lunch today at the lauren national lab tomorrow at the sea level institute and i have to tell you our presentations are not like las vegas where he does the warm up act while you're waiting for the real transplant and finishing our desert and coffee it's more line a roller-coaster he'll take you to the top of the hill he's thrill. >> and send you speeding off

and i'll come in and cad add a few bumps and bring you to a stop with that, i'll have john up come up and advise you with w it keep your hands and feet in the scar at all times (clapping.) >> thank you travis. commissioners port staff it's a privilege to be here i have to tell you i do travel to many cities and explain sea level rise and have studied how you've been studying it i've lived the minutes of our july meeting and watched the video i'm impressed and this is not just a applaud it is the duty but you are working very seriously and asking good questions and understand the profoundness at

times it's business owner become a contentious issue like the grassroots in june the grand jury report and in the july report there's reference to that and different people that look at the it differently i suggest to you this this issue is the biggest issue that will hit even though city of the century and none of us have precipitation for this the sea level has not been higher than one hundred and 20 years and travis can't remember that far back. the - there's no easy answer i'm going to describe you is the long view and it's different than the view that your sea level rise committee of the city of san francisco and the record that was given on behalf thought

that committee which was an excellent report but i want to establish the part we don't know and where does that uncertainty leaf us and suggest a way to look at this that may help guide in you in some of the questions you've asked about you know how do we plan do we let piers go into the water i'll give you comfortable of the 20 or thirty cities and counties i've talked to no one in america has it better than you the concern you're asking the right questions i was here at the port office it was funny in june monique invited me out or may actually, i was there giving a 3 hour seminar the same thing the

jury said we were not doing enough i want to make the both sides comfortable our anxious and i and concern is the or the thing when someone challenges you that will make us think harder this didn't have a simple answer the science and the solution and what it means for the great city i want to start out with the framing. as the committee recorded and as recorded in your minutes i'm not going to read you your minutes but a quote those projections plus or minus 10 inches are based on a moderate level and exclamation of the eye metal

pattern plus or minus whatever that means. the extreme limits of the rages represent the unlikely possible levels i'm sure you're aware of the top of the sea level rise complex when we're looking at the planning important flooding and how to protect our assets we need to look at wave run off and those other things the planners may look at those differently we know that the sea level will rise we don't know the extent i couldn't have written that better what does that mean and why the uncertainly. there are certain things that will happen there are certain things that could happen we face that in our daily lives all the time.

but with sea level it's unprecedented and the shore line is so important to defining where not only the port of the san francisco but where properties ends and islands and cities exist and because this has not happened in human civilization we're struggling and that's understandable. i want to put the preservations and risk in the context to make you will say comfortable sea level the base level we know the mostly tides and when all those things pile up they maximize the impact we're familiar with the storm like the sandy extent we're getting used to the king tides there are neighborhoods where there are storm drains put in to take the water during extreme rainfall events to some

waterway now this is from florida actually but could be anywhere every 28 days it backs up it wasn't that way when we designed the neighborhood we're in a different and/or but i want to help you play it forward not only to what it will be decades from now but where the uncertainty is that will help you see a bigger vision. the chart that was shown to you in july was this one is came out of the n r.c. report it talks about the sea level rise two years ago and it's based on the report that everybody refers to say the icc report you put out every five or six years i'm sure you're aware of you've read this carefully.

the point is that the science is done very well but when you read those reports you realize there's things that are being left anti and oomgd in the footnotes there's incertainties i wanted to talk about the certainty it's and uncertainties. the latest promotions by i pcc the enter panel international is 10 inches we are century they're saying that's the worse case in the footnotes there things we can quantify because strangely the certainties are bigger than the unconcerns. if you look at those documents i'm highlighting something in red even they're on research council says the near term outcome i've highlighted unknown

but probably although the level of scientific understanding although this is the same reference we're using to say he 11 inches plaintiff's no. 1 four inches i only have the highest regard for the work of the san francisco sea level rise committee they're taking the best sciences that exist and publish we're watching a moving target. i'd like to refer to something you're familiar with out here is gatherings this is a earthquake map it is based on the u.s. geologic survey it shows the 10 percent risk in 50 years and in different categories 7, 8, 9 we can build to this yet nobody can

tell you when you're going to have a earthquake in my location; right? we accept it's in a the limit they were quite proud two or three weeks ago they had ten seconds pretty good. and we're looking for years of notice okay. so put this in a framework we're at sea level 20 thousand years ago i'm going to show it was going up and down do you have an opinion and ground floor 2 hundred and 90 feet when the eye of the planet sea level will be 27 stories higher it's not going to happy this century but we tend to know about inches and foot sea level has moved hugely we just were ignorant of it but if you made one year ago is the cover of the geography

gravel magazine it shows what happens when the eye met while they shocked people into what could happen and showed how high the sea level could be that's a little bit of alarm notify it can't happen this century or a century after that we need to talk to people in realistic language i want to help look at one notch to death ahead than the normal short-term planning what do we do in 5 or 10 years if you can see where thanks are hatch in a few decades ahead you'll think bigger. there's about five or six different reasons for the causes of flooding starting with extreme the king tides or storms or tsunamis and the rising sea

levels and the surface run off and down extreme flooding. the difference is the items in yellow there rising sea level and the signs are relating permanent they don't residual a stormwater readies in days sea level will not go down fore decades. so it raise the sea level as you suggested madam president the public didn't yet understand this and commissioner adams said the same thing we have to educate people but this is a long-term forecast when i give taxes to ail sorts of audience from scientists to public roots 90 percent of people think that the melting of the icecaps are

most of you know that renovating sea eye it didn't contribute to the sea level but most people think that's true the arctic isment and last year well sea level the arctic eye expand from 2012 to 2014 it's distort if you look at the gravel of or the icecap in this case sorry the long-term trend of melting is quite clear the year to year distorpgsz you can look for the age but it shows a clear picture and this is 40 years of melting arctic but it proves most of you know as we turn bright white use this is sixth but the lesson from the melting i cap average

the north pole it's been frozen for $3 million years. $3 million years it's ice-free in most of our lifetimes in september sometimes in 10 or 20 years most oh, it's a nature cycle they're not seeing the big picture this has not happened in millions of years the problem of sea level as ems which is to recap the safes e science seawater expands as a warms and the seas are warmer half the effects it comes from theoretical expansion the gracious in the world 2 hundred thousand glaciers and the eye in

ann or can it don't hurt to get it on the record. now glaciers we see the photos of the prior years and now the current pictures of glaciers ware disappointing but when all the glaciers in the world metal they'll run to the sea level and we'll have on the a few foot of sea level rise hard to believe from the national parks it's the arctic and we have to begin to understand what we know about them greenland has 2 thousand feet of water recognized up. in greenland this is to help you visualize this is where the glaciers break off into icebergs if you go up the glare the bending river of eye they and

emanate from the flat table sheet there's one on greenland and one or two depending on how you define the anarch can and their two or three miles thick similar to the eye age in north america because of the computer glitch if you look at youtube chasing eye you'll see a great video that shows a eye melting seen in 2008, an area of eye in greenland melted the size of manhattan nonresponsive of the camera in 75 minutes that's an amazing video to watch. >> can you repeat it. >> chasing eye was a the video if you look at youtube you'll

find the chasing eye. >> thank you. >> that was for our listening public. >> insure what we see in chasing eye after 3 years of festivity with the nationals science foundation was not in the model models try to project things whether inflation or unemployment their models we're trying to model climate change and model sea level rise. with earthquakes we have hundreds of occur occurrence that can state of california valid the model because we have hundreds of curtains that gives accuracy in the project we've not medal did eye past the current point in one hundred and

25 thousand years the models are good guessed but we can't valid the model until it happens and we're returning the experiment now to see how quickly we can metal the eye so that skroo video from greenland is very important. i think we'll step back if you look back to 1850 sea level has risen 18 inches you're on the gloriously average the lane giggles jiblgz up and down sometimes in the media skeptics like to say oh, sea level as gone down the finance thing is if you see the trend you can get ahead of it i submit it you the same thing as sea level it's not only increased but the rate of

there s is increasing we see a bigger picture. sea level didn't hit every place the same this is a gravel of 13 cities across the bottom the average sea level rise i talked about the global average 18 years but from 46 inches outside of new orleans to 14 in new york, 12 in miami and 4 in la so how could you see the difference the land is up and down if the lands in new orleans has moved down 38 inches it looks like 46 inches similarly in los angeles in the plat has been lifted by the ocean plate and raised los angeles 4 inches it will look like 4 inches it's not

one-size-fits-all all ports have a different issue. what do we know about sea level it's risen 3 hundreds and 90 feats since the last eye age the one in the mid was a nature phenomenon and it race a foot in a decade for 40 decades. it is a sense of what the posh year is not it's going to happen but puts into prospective a different order of magnitude that happened because of the eye age i'd like to say to show the graphic it's a age graphic the meltdown maybe the kids had to watch it my daughter was 6 and i watched it 20 or thirty times the other mammals there's two

miles of eye why did the sea level change nobody doubt we've is had a eye age that is what causes it to go up and down it turns into 3 hundred and 50 feet of sea level we never think of that it way for 5 thousand years sea level has been level i'll tell you i can't but a pattern a million years it go up and down with a period the problem is the eye is stored in green los angeles police department and anarch can it has 7 times the amount of eye the areas in red in anarch can are the concern it's glaciers called the pine i would like to withdraw or the pig for support pi g but the pig

is 6 glaciers the plate glaciers those 6 glaciers have about 10 feet of sea level wrapped up in there. and i can't show you this video but tell her several available and i can make many available for the port the glaciers are being eaten from underneath and they don't appear what they are they are eaten by he seawater and go into the ocean the calculation when will those comblashz be certifying eaten underneath where they hit the ground to slide into the ocean and there's a lot of studs hundreds of million dollars it's tough to study anarch can what do we know about that science is

progressively since the last cc i report and that your study is based on. you may have seen in the news this year there were news reports on the main tragedy news anarch can it's unstoppable because of the this area and the unfortunate contribute with the best science we have without political nonsense we can't say for sure when those glaciers are going to slide into the ocean and what the scientists do that seems counterintuitive if we can't be sure we don't want to say it that makes sense it's our respiration so we eye the things. quantitativeable the glacier is merrifield by when we say it could happen this century or next century but it's left out

of the figures. and that's a problem it's not only a problem for san francisco but a problem for all coastal areas and on the river this could be sacramento miami has a worse sidewalks and placesal over the world from banking dash to manila to shanghai and boston this is a gloriously problem you're trying to get out ahead of it i want to put into prospective and why the uncertainty not the unconfidence you can't know when those glaciers are going to release and slide into the ocean the date is getting better but not in the numbers you're planning for.

in fact, just to put in visual prosecute penmanship i've taken the numbers out thought i cc report which the national research report looks scenarios as your committee suggested we need to do the scenario planning as opposed to look at one number and the four scenarios for climate change, if you will, are shown in those columns the different color bars i've got them identified by components the top layer is anarch can the bottom is the red level is the expansion sea bar as the ocean warms it will expands and the next one is sglashz the whops that don't change is the anarch can, in fact, if me over lay the potential increase in safely from that one area of arresting

arc can as a reference comparison you see the problem. we're really focusing on the inches where we can measure and calculate and we're saying we just don't know when the feet will hit mr. whether this century or next century and the scientists nobody wants to scare people that's not our goal but i want you to think bigger it's applied in some of our figures medicate than is a warming factor let me bring this to the a close the best sets or two sets of graphs this is 4 hundred thousand years of sea level rise if we conspirator goes global average temperature and carbon

monoxide in green for green house gas emissions and 4 hundred thousand from left to right the present being on the right-hand side what is amazing there's 4 age eye the temperatures up and down the global. the 3 line? >>line up sea level, temperature and grefz the problem to put this into prospective in the upper right it the green house gas emissions and carbon monoxide is gone it's at 4 hundred and straight up and temperature is following it so green house gas emissions are 40 percent higher and the temperature is warmer the problem is that and we get that data from eye corps the data from 4 hundred thousand years ago comes from the bubble in the

eye which give us the data but if we project out within bounds we can see that ail 3 are going to go up it's located in i think i'm sure you're aware of it's applied in our minutes with compliment change we have to do two things simultaneously we need to produce green house gas emissions but that won't stop the sea level rising even though the world stopped it today sea level is the rise their regarding two different thrusts as your report indicated in july we have to get this perfect the sea level lag time because it is in the ocean. and the last draft to show you that the projects for sea level rise in the