boob boomers this is the kind of housing we might need for today the nation is seeing the same demand for low income housing but in the 15 years we're projecting major population growth this as national trend seniors will have unique housing needs and the types of housing location and the affordability and at the heart of our equality we're seeing that some populations some contingency with leaving the city and we're losing gifted and equality study by 2014 if we do nothing to address san francisco will be the largest region with the

lowest income a shift from 480 and the staircase craft to the nation for a greater diversity in our population race and niblt is a critical part of my equality and complicated component of the housing policy which, generally includes the tools this city should take this seriously so again longs range planning who we are and who we want to be those 3 metrics are important we anxiously await public comment and quickly on the housing stock nothing new we've tried to provide a consensus off our

housing stock and the control as gil said we're here to answer any questions by the housing stock that could render rent control some might be affordable but certainly this is an important tool for helping us maintain our diversities we 0 don't have a lot of information about the housing stock we know roughly how many units but can't say in terms of affordability more throughout through what the housing stock might play in thirty years and the same is true of the owner occupied they're not subsidize we know a bit about the housing stock with the public recorded but we really don't know how to understand how it plays on our affordability and certainly the housing stock purchased in 1979

has a lower cost but are they retired seniors a family of of a dual income family with no children what will that unit be like in thirty years for your housing stock if we look at this go we might know how to manage that housing stock so we have roughly 3 hundred and 80 stokes the mayor talk about adding percentage and our existing housing stock is an important part of the long term thinking and we have the chief environmentalist here to talk about recent trends in the housing stock. >> thank you kirston.

>> excuse me. good afternoon ted with the controller's office the planning department has asked me to join you this afternoon and brief you with reach that connects to the things kirston said in the nature of the housing stock with the relationship between prices and affordability and the populations and also research we've done on the impact of affordability that sound like a lot i won't take more than 5 minutes if we can go to the transparency i's today this is a chart that sets a context looking at the supply and displaced a chart that shows the gray area is the annual growth and what i think is the best measure of housing demand it is household income and when

this grows and been growing upwards of 10 percent a year during this economic community college that places pressure on housing prices my craft is the city's annual increase in heirs supply divided with by the total shock since 20104 to 10 percent of annual demand and supply in the .5 to one .5 percent per year when you have demand growing rapidly and supply less that's where the demand comes from the housing prices annually and it's grown 40 percent since 2011 the rents market rents tend to follow housing prices closely to i'm not showing on this chart

we have a high rising housing prices we're seeing around the urban housing pressure is something in the cities across the country san francisco is unique i've shown where san francisco's housing prices and how much it grew in the past year for 3 years in a row san francisco has the highest appreciating housing prices in the united states that is not traditional economics when our growth slows people don't move and there's an aversion to the need there is something unique related to the fact we're the world center for the technology where the workforce lives and where the companies are located san francisco has been

integrated into the technology economy so we're experiencing both and we'll high housing prices and growth this is where the affordability the first we don't necessary see we know about it is hard to detect people moving out of san francisco because of how expensive housing is we know from the consensus mike data you look cochran across the united states and see who moved out of san francisco we know how many people have moved out of san francisco to other locations and over the 2011 to 2013 that's 60 thousand people a year and the majority are members of low income households or belief it is 80 percent of medium income or bloef below a ellis acted member of a low income household

is twice as likely to move out of the san francisco during this period and member of a household with a moderate income many people move out only 5.8 percent of higher incomes hopeful anti when you adjust for the demographic factors it don't appear that income is a significant factor second factor which kirston alluded to the low income people that stay in san francisco have a higher burden we focused on the low income household with at least one member in the labor force the senior population presents a difference in the labor force to low income population if you look at labor force households what at least one member in the labor force

low income that's 90 thousand households in san francisco you've seen even though the vast majority is subject to rent control the burden for the 95 households is a burden the diverse within between the affordability workouts to $60,000 a year that's 6 heed memorial day a year low income is spending on rent in san francisco affordable housing is a major city policy goal and we have done with to study how affordable housing at least in our office effects the affordability problem that faces low income san franciscans is it really effects it in two was the first way if you're in a

permanently affordable unit you pay for rent this is set based on our income generally thirty percent everyone else is paying 40 percentage, however, another price benefit for low income household it is associated with building affordable housing it takes competition out of the low end of the market where kirsten showed the more permanently affordable housing you built lows competition for the bottom of the private market it makes it easier for people that don't get permanently affordable housing to find more affordable housing in the private market that helps with the affordability challenge the math is we think in san francisco the actual value of the sdwik

effects is actively bigger than the direct effect that's one the reasons the tight housing stock we're building affordable housing is the most effect strategy you can have for effecting affordability you can begin to state of california measure the price effect an additional point this price benefit that you get for all low income household from the low income hours that's at risk if the demand spills over from the higher income by the way, the supply is not up with the demand we've seen this in san francisco houses tennessee 10 or 20 years ago are now occupied by a higher income they have the power and generally,

the ability to set the prices and their unmet demand creates priced pressures that e roads the addict benefits of housing we can begin to measure we think the both the price benefits of building affordable housing and the price benefits across the housing market and talk about what we've seen in the income the actual effects of building the affordable on the affordability challenge that faces the low income households in the city i'm going to represent that with this chart it is basically a line if our on the left and lower side of line it you can see how many affordable housing in the city and how much the other housing

stock in the city any year the city is on the 2350b89 challenge it is going to get worse we basically need to be on that line or above to not have the availability challenge the 46 percent number this is the immigration problem it doesn't matter if you build a lot of affordable housing there's going to windup having the effect the price of housing in san francisco to the same degree what is important if you look at how much the city housing has built i apologize for the lack of clarity i'll tell you was it chart is saying what i've done is mark the gray dots how much affordable and mandatory housing the city has built in this decade we did this in 2010 this

is 2011 and this the the envelope and this is the biggest year 2013 we built 13 hundred market rate unit none of the level of housing is sufficient you to address the demand we've seen during this period the good news this established the affordable and market rate for the seven years starting this year if we achieve those targets we'll moving in the right direction but the important thing if the city wants to leverage the price effect of building hours for the challenges that face low income households it is kind of no so much a matter of picking the market rate and affordable housing compared to what we've done i'm going to turn it over to kirston i'll be happy to

answer any questions. >> thank you very interesting. >> so that's correct ted i'm going to quickly talk about what our role might be moving forward and what how we might think as the planning commission about the long-range planning first, we have a policy framework if you can get the overhead we say a policy framework the housing element adapted in 2014 it has issues we've spent a lot of time identifying with the solid framework you just reapproved it we added that on to what the state requires this is solid framework we're talking about what we want to do in terms of of long-range planning and the 2014 housing element

but the housing element is a housing strategy and the workers institute another organization has landlord-tenant looked at the past 70 years and you can see that many of the areas they're talking about focusing are similar to what we identified in our housing element, however there's 2 i want to direct your attention we have an opportunity to work together and move forward the first is thinking about making our existing stock affordable and available and second promoting the municipal tin those are the front tier for the long-range planning we need to been the thirty and 40 years targeted for the production and our policies reflect that we need to start looking beyond

that so that i'd like to take into account how the 5 core areas that gil identified in the core program fit within the housing framework when we address this framework so we've really pulled out 4 sort of suggestions we think are steps we modestly might want to consider first, the understanding of the housing stock what is affordable and not how do we keep it affordable and once we understand the fact we can start to think about policies and programs that help us reach that goal and do we have a goal of existing affordable housing prop k and renée and affordability for new growth that make sense and we have control our tools are more refund but it is time to think

about the existing housing stock and the flexibility reality speaks to the changes in demographics we're having millennials and we need a housing to grow with the changing demographics and finally i think this is being probable come out the most clear in the multiple preparation the regional planner we're not alone in the transit fund and shouldn't be in our housing funding but the regime has a more comprehensive strategy and increase the choices for bay area resident those are the four points we've hidden valley high school for the long-range planning and i think as gil said wore to inspire the conversation and like to come back in a month or two and dive into the tool

kit and we've thought of a few questions for that thank you for listening. >> thank you very informative opening it up for public comment. >> this is one of the most informative presentations we've seen all year thank you for the time and energy and resources you guys have put into this. >> thank you. any is there any additional public comment? >> sue hester arrest i have concentrated how we keep the hours we have we are losing it by the thousands from non-implementation of policies i

give the academy of art that pondering housing and not being held affordable for the housing and s t r are exploding probable three to four percent of housing is washed i've been reading the minutes of the planning commission to understand the institution master plan there was lively discussed this is not the first commission to grapple with housing issues up to here in 73, 74, 75 which minutes i'm read and the thing that comes to me the issues that were raised in that time it was huge issues

of displacement of housing by institutions commission was graep this was not the radical planning commission and the moscone commission and allen jacobs and others minutes are different from minimizing anything you've seen they actually present what was said at the commission meetings by the public as well as the commissioners and really grappling with displacement of housing in the 70s hugely and adopted the amendments to the planning code to really grapple with those issues they came from doug

also on the xyz planning commission and spur and the sierra club and myself i was in a couple of hearings big issues how you survive in the city the other place where was was a really concentrated space was in the late 70s and early 80s we have the first remedy in advance of the housing stock it didn't come from the planning commission i'll ask you to open our eyes people on this side of the aisle have great things to say excluding the staff people think they have the entire wisdom they don't thanks. >> good afternoon, commissioners peter cowen from

the contractually housing i was not around in the moscone days staff is anxietyly awaiting the goals it would be nice to have a working groups that is one of the reasons i feel the city in a moment of crisis is not doing good policy practices there's too much going on too fast with no venue to talk about it and think intellectually if you put policy agenda aside? a scratching at the surface what is remarkable how ted in the first presentation continued to focus on supply we'll have panels will the supply and demand what whether or not i think it is important to repeat

but i was to nuchs u under the influence what ms. hester said if you want to take supply fundamentally it is not preserving supply of housing with the low and moderate much less about commissioners, that places you under president reports and announcements we're spinning in place you look at all the housing unit and off the market versus how much we've produced we've barely gotten ahead how do you have interventions to preserve the supply as much as pumping out new unit with the condominium conversion program but did tic conversion is out of supply hundreds of thousands zero regulations and other number one

prim residents 3 thousand to nearly 9 or 10 thousands units off the market and the short-term rentals the budget analyst talked about 23 or 25 percent of existing rentals are lost to vacation rentals permanently and sro conversions to tech hub we're losing this supply i want to emphasize and it is frustrating to think of the macro the versus of both sides of people you really have to look at supply by in case your housing shows you the awful disparity this is the most important supply question than the total number of units there is good research coupling cow coming out of berkley of the income necessary not only totaled units icision suggest

you look at it and last the proportional relationship of the different income categories thank you very much. >> any other speakers i have one card from elizabeth. >> hi, i'm elizabeth i'm a mission resident i've been living in the mission for many years i'm glad to have my apartment the people that live in the apartment underneath rent 2 unit my owner bought the previous tenants and renting now for one thousand $700 a month everybody knows airbnb or short-term rentals accountant for 40 percent of vacant unit

the other problem we face besides the fact that the tech people can come up with a years rent in advance and everyone else looking for an apartment absentee loan problems to - so it income from hard working income people like myself is out of the city and spent on someplace else and international investment i see people from japan and china from europe country and we know what is going to happen happen to building when people buy them real estate is a big place to park our money 3 could be a short term they're interested in making the quick fast buck it

does nothing to protect the citizens from the on slot of international capital thank you very much. >> commissioners hi again, i want to join the other gentleman and say this is was an informative presentation a lot of discussion in the community that maybe we are using fuzzy figures i thought there was a diagonal line this was a fantastic way to present that to the community what life start up in the tech this graph is good and this would is bad i'm an organizer and welcome anyone that want to try to bridge that community to contact me at i cloud.org it might not work but

i personally am a non-native and find it difficult to discuss this without seeing red so maybe talking to the data scientists is a good way to start thank you, thank you is there any additional public comment not seeing none and opening up to commissioners commissioner antonini. >> thank you for a very good presentation i think we have to look at this question in a couple of important ways that were not mentioned we're macro managed micro solutions each individual and family makes their own individual choices where to live and not necessarily forced out i've had dental patient for 45 years they're all different income

levels and cost is a factor but there's a lot of things that under the influence people's choices the size of the housing where we can find it at the cost having children or not where can i go if unite not curling making what i want or move to a place there's work for my skill set the 60 thousand people that leave san francisco every year we've heard in the statistics in a logical way had this is impounded we're a tiny peninsula with water on 3 sides we're not going to be annexing land soon many of the people i'll give you records from my charts are moved to the pacifica daily city