we're restoring weekday services. we'll have a mixed fleet for interim period. we'll have some diesel trains out on the corridor. we have plans to even expand that beyond what we're contemplating today. we'll have tenant service today, ace, capital corridor and freight operating on the corridor. they'll be able to run underneath the wire. we are in construction today. on the left, that's some of the infrastructure putting in the poles and the foundation, the far left hand corner is picture the tunnel in san francisco. on the right-hand side, those from pictures of the brand new electric trains getting built now in salt lake city. recap where we are with the schedule, this is a project that's been in years in the making. we started construction in 2017.

we expected going into final system in testing a inhave electrified service for people to enjoy and ride in 2022. with that, i'm happy to turn it over to sebastian unless there's question about this portion. >> good morning directors. thanks for having me. i want to present to you briefly on the cal caltrain business pl. although it's called a business plan, we're looking out pretty far into the future in the next 20 to 30 years to think about how the system can grow and change as our board adopts the long range vision for us and we'll develop a detailed business plan. we're touching on a range of different topics if this planning effort. lot of work which i'll present today looking at service options, different ways that the railroad with grow and change

and ways we can operate our trains. we're also doing lot work with the 21 local jurisdictions we run through on the corridor. looking at separations, community impacts and benefits. finally with stanford's help, we're undertaken organizational review which is looking at organization, service project delivery as well as governance. we're hoping to have this wrapped up by the end of calendar year. we're aiming to have the board make big picture decision on the corridor. somewhere in the summer of 2019. that big picture vision really is a vision for growth. casey mentioned, we are in the process of electrifying. growth and change are already very much on the agenda for caltrain. we know there's a lot of change

coming in the corridor. the question is really, how much change and how much growth and how will that growth manifest. we're asking these questions in part, we see our trains are getting full today. there's a huge amount of land use change in the bay area and in particular in the caltrain corridor. the graph on the right shows what's coming. these are the projections in our corridor. we're looking at sort of of 40% increase in human density around our stations by 2040. we know there are lot of those folks who want to raid rail. we're going to be much more connected system here in san francisco with the downtown extension with bart and san jose, connections through the state of california. we're looking at a much denser and connected corridor. we did little bit of unconstrained modeling. if we had bartlike service, how many people might want to ride

it? the answer appears to be a lot. we carry about 60,000 people today. if we had frequent bart like service, the model we'll be caring 240,000 people. that is comparable to what bart does today. from there, we've really looked at options for growth. those are options that build on all caltrain's existing plans and commitments. we have a baseline version of growth out in 2040 we're looking at finishing electrification pross and making commitments to high speed rail. we developed a couple of additional options that try to push the envelope, what would look like if we wanted to provide more service. these are essentially representations. fairly detailed representations of peak hour service for each of those service options. showing one hour in one direction of service on the corridor, starting at transit

centre in the north. this is a representation of 2040 going down to gilroy in the south. the baseline is really lot of the service and schedules we've been working with for the last five or more years. it reflects full electrification of caltrain and high speed rail program. not whole lot more than that. we've also developed a moderate growth scenario that looks at what if caltrain added couple of more trains. we got up to 12 trains per hour in the corridor. we have caltrain looking at 15 minute express pattern and local pattern. we tried to push the envelope look at how much service we can fit on the corridor. we went to 16 trains per hour. this pretty much maxes out the existing corridor. there's not really much more we can fit on it.

as part of this effort, we've done some analysis working with staff from the city and county of san francisco to j.p.a. and high speed rail regarding how some of the service can work and operate at sails force transit centre. we've been working with the tjpa and incorporating the latest things they have. in general in the baseline, we believe that all 10 trains per hour can fit into the sales force transit centre. we're continuing to simulate these plans now. we've done these in planning explodes. we'r-- modes. there are some tight moves. we'll be looking at that closely. similarly, in the moderate scenario, we're looking at total of 12 trains. we organized those trains to make them work more efficiently. with that, efficient, organization, we believe all of them can serve the salesforce

transit centre. we're working on simulations to dig in that. when we get to 16 trains an hour per direction, just planning level analysis, it's pretty clear not all 16 trains per hour will fit in the single sales force. based on that, if we were to get to situation we were running that volume of train on the corridor, the last four trains would need to go to some facility for functioning. there are some potential conflicts in merging those trains back in the mainline. we're fairly confident there are solutions to work around there. that's what the northern terminal would function like if we get to 16 trains an hour.

as i mentioned, we are moving from planning out dynamic simulations that looks at how the facility works. we want to make sure we're planning and it's robust. that work is being done with full transparency and input from high speed rail as well as tjpa staff. we'll be engaged in analysis systemwide storage of maintenance needs. we talk about the north terminal whether it's at fourth and king, that affects how we move trains around during the day and how they are stored. that's a system wide conversation. as we think about how system grow, we're looking systemwide how the maintenance need to change. that's a program of work that

will get more detailed and continue probably for some tame. lastly, i wanted to highlight that we have done demand projections now we use the model to model corridor. that's when we found works best. we have projected demand on all of these scenarios. this graph just shows weekday demand for caltrain ridership. it was around 60,000 today, updated figures for electrification in 2022, we're looking at about an 20% increase. when we go to the downtown extension, we see 25% increase as we our system gets access to the core of economic activity and jobs. from there, depending on the different scenario, we're growing 161,000 at the base layne up to about 210,000.

we're excited about those number. it presents a challenge to us, there's some potential crowding issues we're looking at. as we're moving forward, one of the things we have to think about is not how many people could fight on train but how many people will make the choice and pay to do so. generally what we're using a as a standard going forward is 135% of seating capacity. if the u.s. commuter rails the rule of thumb in the past been one rider one seat. we see today that people are standing on caltrain and paying to do so. we do think standing is part of the future. we think that's a pretty good place for us to land for now. here you can just see, ridership

projections with that capacity constrained adjustmented. adjustment -- -- adjustment. just a few key findings. i won't go through these in detail. we do think that when the d.t.x. comets online and our train starts serve, that will be a major ridership increase to caltrain. will strain our capacity as well. just a few specifics about how we did the modeling in san francisco. we did assume surcharge. i know that is part of the current funding plan for d.t.x. we coordinated this through the staff. we consumed $3 surcharge starting in 2020. which is about $2.50 in today's

dollars. that's what we model. it does depress the ridership slightly. generally, we also think there's some other changes in san francisco that can affect raidership. one thing i say, sort of unknown for us is exactly how people may use the d.t.x. within san francisco. our ridership projections largely capture people as they use caltrain today. one thing we know with bart in san francisco, there are san franciscans who may use it like a subway to get to one part of the city to at. that type of ridership isn't probustlprobust -- probustly can our projections.

lastly, just to emphasize that we are moving towards a decision point by our board in the summer where they'll be asked to selects one of those growth scenarios a long range vision for caltrain to build towards. that's a decision that won't just be made on what the service looks like. we have raidership estimates. we want to provide a complete picture to the board so they can make a fully informed decision. the business plan, we have a website for folks who are interested this project. it's caltrain2040.org. it's a great resource for people who want to follow this process. just to emphasize, we have been doing lot of outreaches as part of this process. outreach with stakeholders and

pier agencies. we have a pretty robust staff group that meets regularly. we're trying to really engage our partnerses in this work. i'm happy to take any questions. >> director reiskin: from a process stand point, i want to commend situatio sebastian and m for this thorough process. i appreciate that. on the substance of the business planning from my perspective as the city transportation detector, i'm looking at the current state of the streets of san francisco and 101 corridor, looking at the piece of growth that's already happening now and already happen in the bay area projections for 2040.

it leads to inevitable conclusion that the high growth scenario is what the region needs. i'm hopeful that this bright mind who can solve the 16 train per hour issue at the transit centre. i do think that the burden for the decision and supporting and funding the decision should not fall just to the caltrain joint powers board. this is a regionally significant, if not state and nationally significant issue. i think it's really the region beyond just the caltrain board will need to be able to get behind supporting that vision. i say this, my concern when we start looking at the numbers, look, little overwhelming relative to the resources caltrain board. we all have an obligation

throughout the region supporting the future of the region being ail to get this level of train service to move up and down the peninsula. i look forward to the next steps. >> it's been a ton of work since this was launched a little over a year ago. to achieve the growth scenario that are being modeled, one of the things that is would inhibit that, in term of trains per hour is the issue of crossing and separationings. that doesn't make the number smaller. it makes it bigger.

can you speak to that? i had the opportunity to be on a panel over the weekend and made some transitional comments saying, the city are wanting more services but they want it on their terms. they want someone else to pay for it. that doesn't work when we're talking about a region. we have to work to this together. there's a follow-up question to that. >> the issue what happens on corridor is a huge one. on the corridor that cal drain owns, there are 42 crossings. few look down it gilroy, there's another 30. we're in the process of putting together all the capital costs of investments that will be required to support any these service visions and the cost of addressing separations.

that is the biggest item. san francisco has, i think, only couple of accurate crossings. what we'll be able to do in the business plan is frame the need and talk about that in relation to the kinds of benefits that this service can provide. i think previously on the caltrain corridor, lot of the conversations around crossing have beency by city. they've been framed very rightly and importantly as traffic and safety. they haven't been trained as projects that maybe unlock a transformative level of service. one of the things we're trying to do in this plan and coming out of the plan will be to frame the need and talk about maybe the strategic approach looking at this is a corridor-wide issue. how we can works a corridor to find funding and find ways to

make these projects cheaper. that's a substantial body of work and it's a body of work that brings billions of dollars in costs. >> vice chair gee: it's necessary to achieve the model, high growth, even the moderate growth in the presentation. the second piece that goes with that, if the region is not able to get behind substantial grade separation program, other part is the sensitivity analysis to the turn time in the salesforce transit centre. when you're dealing with the public, you get on the airplane all the time dealing with loading is not an exact science as well as if we're not global to grade separation in substantial part of the corridor. as soon as that happens, your model how fast trains turn

doesn't work. would suggest to me a backup location to store train whether it's fourth and king if needed to keep -- there's not enough room when somebody happen -- something happens on the corridor >> caltrain perspective is something will be needed at fourth and king. what that looks like and above ground and below ground, it's something we're excited about working with the city of san francisco and promp property owo understand options and trade-offs. as you point out in delay situations, we know that we're talking about a terminal for a very active rail service. we have to be able to find that. >> as this continues, to my

colleagues in san francisco, i don't know the answer to this. the question i have, do all trains have to go downtown? >> i don't know the answer to that particularly with the plans for south of market and the development out there. do all the trains all time -- i don't know. i don't know what the right answer is. >> i appreciate the comments. the grade we should be striving to meet this demand is a good problem to have in the region. with regard to this question, we will be working together, m.t.a. and agency and others on a citywide transit master plan and corridor study. just get it going. reallily to answer this question, i think as far as

d.t.x., the demand wants to distribute from that point as well downtown corridor. there's couple of markets. perhaps three markets. there's statewide, there's the within region market that caltrain brings. it's interesting that we find at least in the bart numbers from a few years ago, bart was turning about 10% ridership within the city. over 70,000. this is not nearly as extensive as bart. you make a great point. we want to work with you on this question. i mentioned from the high speed rail, high speed rail authority recognizes in their business plan, service needs to get to transbay and transit centre and that's the intent. the role of that station still

to be worked out. it's a good question director gee. we want to make assure i -- sure it works for passengers. finally on the question kind of a specific question to the demand projection. did you look at regional buses perhaps on express lane or any kind of scenario for the overall corridor for caltrain. not just looking at caltrain by itself? >> i did assume some level of services and projects in place.

i will get the details. >> director lipkin: certainly from a high speed perspective, our goal by mandate from the voters to get our services to salesforce transit centre. sebastian in your presentation, you did a marvelous job throughout this process. part of that excites me for kind of looking at the history of the corridor little bit, there was electrification plan for the corridor for a while. we're kind of at the point where that moved forward. the next layer on top of that, how we have high speed rail to it. that's what we're going through on the clearance and with the extension of d.t.x. to downtown. this is the next layer on top to look for long range of vision.

continuing to see that evolution and upgrades coming in overtime. it's an exciting process that you laid out for the region and certainly we're very supportive of continuing to work with caltrain how the entire system works. thank you. >> thank you very much. i think you would say, we are growing. the numbers are high. the high scenario probably where we need to look at. thank you. >> you have two members of the public. we have mr. patrick and mr. lebron. >> jim patrick from patrick and company. i like to go back to my shoe. you remember the shoe.

we shot ourselves in the foot. we are going to shoot ourselves in the foot again. we heard this presentation he talk about moving the envelope. we need to move the shoe, not the envelope. the envelope is not doing the job. ever heard of a tunnel under transbay? 20-year plans what will the ridership be, what would the riliership be? number two the corridor. we're talking about the corridor. they have a monopolistic right to that corridor. why can't caltrain go underneath. how about stopping at the treasure island? how about stopping if emeryville? what about stopping in alameda. what about stopping in oakland. you're making a 20-year plan. you need to push the shoe.

you don't need to push the envelope. i would reject this plan. ask them to go back to their board, rethink little bit more about moving more people, more effectively. get off the corridor kick and get on moving people around effectively. we missed it. don't shoot ourselves in the foot again. thank you. >> that's a tough act to beat. i want to talk about he said and the comments i made at the board meeting. high speed rail authority was working to get a experience terminal at fourth and king.

i brought to board commission, that clearly clarifies the bond act that determine it's a transbay and not fourth and king. having said that, the same ruling says as long as they don't use bonds, they can build whatever you want to build. going back to this. interest. you got to attract for 12 trains. only way you can achieve that is to start think being what you're doing with the d.t.x. and your approach on second street. right now, it's burning half the transbay box. it's a problem.

first problem that you have to address. director -- at that point in time, you will no longer need three tracks on the approach to d.t.x. for the same reason bart need more than two tracks in and out of market street. this is where you need to go. you have to start planning not just for the redesign of the d.t.x. but across the bay at the same time. very quickly on the backup

solution, you definitely have an opportunity if it's proper design, to turn trains around in brisbane. then you can have a full bus bridge to make the connection to downtown. i testified and asked for resignation that this is not possible. it's a high speed rail design. nothing to do with caltrain. >> that concludes your agenda for today. >> chair nuru: we are adjourned. >> thank you.

>> good morning. we gather here today. welcome. we gather here on the 113th anniversary of the great earthquake to remember those lost. every year since the 190s -- 1920s would gather like today. several years ago once all of the survivors passed away, we pledged to be here to continue this rich tradition. as our native son summed up perfectly, san francisco is the ultimate survivor. now in a few minutes we will hear from some of our esteemed

from san francisco. mayor london bead and the fire chief -- nay orlon -- mayor london breed and more. of course, let's not forget the 2019 survivor honoree donna. let's hear it for her. [applause.] >> that is right. these folks will tell us in a few minutes about preparation what to do and their preparation to get through the disaster such as 1906. a special thanks to the guardian of the city. give him a nice hand everybody. the guardians of the city are charged with preservation of the city emergency service history.

thanks to the fire, police, department of emergency management and sheriff's department for continued suppo support. dave, of course, a personal friend is th the straw that stis the drink and sweeps up so no one sees the mess left behind. a hand for ron ross. he is a founder of the san francisco history association. ron is the second longest attendee after donna. this is his last wreath hanging. he is retiring after forming it is 1982. we also want to thank ed ruskin and the m.t.a. for the streetcar. to my good friend who is the

performethe prfor making this h. a big hand for big lee. is the mayor here? >> you look great. you look fantastic. our mayor is here. she is a native daughter of the city who happens to be the mayor. the pride of the high school. a successful product of the inner city. please welcome our fine mayor, mayor london breed everybody. [applause.] >> mayor breed: thank you. good morning, everyone. now we know that if there were a woman mayor in 1906, this is how she would dress. i am here to celebrate history in san francisco because many of us who grew up here, we know that san francisco is earthquake

territory. we grow up and learn from day one it is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. in school we learn drills and the history of the city in terms of what happened during the 1906 earthquake, the loss of lives, loss of first responders, the destruction of our city, the challenges that exist there, but we also learn about the resilience of our city and how we bounce back, we rebuild, and we make sure that san francisco is better and stronger than ever. we continue to do that time and time again. i was here during the 1989 earthquake, and we rebuild. we also continue in this city to focus on emergency prepared necessary to ensure that our

first responders have equipment and support they need. ensuring we put forth regulations for seismic safety for new development. ensuring that we make sure that every time a challenge comes our way, we come back stronger than ever. that is what being from san francisco is about. it is important today we remember our history. that we talk about the challenges that exist during 1906. we talk about the people and the folks that really help to rebuild san francisco. today marks the time in history, one where we have seen some of the photographs, some of the discovered footage of just really how amazing san francisco was and what happened during that time. we look at san francisco and hear about what a beautiful city it is and continues to be. i am really excited to be here

to celebrate with guardians of the city who continue to protect that history. i am here and excited to be with so many of our first responders from the fire department, police department, department much emergency management. people ready to roll up their sleeves for the city. donna is dressed up just to remind us of an amazing lady who supported our fire department who helped build the tower, who contributed to san francisco, who continues to give of herself to ensure that we stick together, support one another through the challenging times and yes today during the good times as we celebrate. thank you all so much for being here this morning. what a happy and exciting occasion and what a great time to be from san francisco and to

be your mayor. thank you, i am honored. [applause.] >> well, the mayor looking classy as ever upfront today. only to be equaled by our next guest. this guy is personifying big city politics. he wears his age so well. one of the best mayors ever in the town. mayor willy lewis brown. let's hear it for him, please. >> good morning to each and every one of you. were you pleased with what i chose for london to wear today? doesn't she look good? that is outrageous, outrages. she reminded me that the outfit

she is wearing was my age. (laughter). i didn't like that either. we are here, obviously, we do this always as the mayor says to remind people who we really are, and believe me we have been doing this for so many years. when i was first running for mayor. he said something about a fountain. i had no idea what it was. it was no fountain. it was offensive and what have you. there was a fellow working for me named ed lee. i said if you want to keep your job, you get that god damn fountain working. he went on to be the mayor and the fountain still works. there is a guy assigned to do

nothing except make sure that water is running if i pass that fountain. i love that. that reflects the ingennowty of this -- ingenuity of this city. when donna shows up and gets out dressed by london breed, you know there is a new generation, new day and new time. welcome to all of you to this year's celebration. thank you. [applause.] >> always a part of every historic occasion. fantastic. our next guest is within 15 days every timer. days of the retirement. she is tough, fair and tells a good story. welcome fire chief joanne

hayes-white everybody. [applause.] >> good morning, everyone. thank you for being out here and preserving our rich history and tradition. i am grateful this will be my last time up here as chief of department. it is a phenomenal privilege and honor to sheriff as your chief for 15 years. today is about three things. we started this back a long time ago. now we are talking about 113 years commemoration. we commemorate those that suffered great losses and injury, including the fire chief in 1906, 113 years ago. we celebrate the city's resilience and use this to know about the important of disaster

and emergency preparedness. all of the departments are working shoulder to shoulder to make sure we are ready when that challenge coming for us. thank you to all of you here this morning. thank you to the men and women of the san francisco fire department. you are here this morning. neighborhood emergency response team program is wonderful. to mayor willie brown and mayor london breed and someone to be celebrated every day all about preserving the city history. 45 years you have been doing this. thank you very much. also, i was given a picture. i will continue to carry with me. this is willy del monte. he died in 2016. i want be to honor him. the guardians of the city for wonderful work and big thank you

to the fire commission president here with me over 25 years of service to our department. i would like to call you both up. i know we are on a tight timeline. our new fire chief will be taking the oath. i am proud of her. thank you very much. have a wonderful day. [applause.] >> the new chief following the old chief. it is going to be fantastic. it is funny. this guy has been on the job three years. he is a straight-shooter. his wife is also a member of guardians of the city, which is cool.

welcome chief bill scott, please. >> good morning. it is hard to follow mayor breed and mayor brown so i want to echo a few things said. i want to thank everybody for being here. these are moments we can remind ourselves how this city comes together. san francisco has a rich illustrious history of rising to the occasion. in times like these, that is exactly what we do. i want to put a plug i for our program. we get by with volunteers. people come together and they work and they volunteer. thank you all for being here. i want to recognize the men and women of the san francisco police department standing on the perimeters.

[applause.] >> i want to recognize our great sheriff and law enforcement partners and all of our san francisco sheriffs. this is the sheriff's last year at the celebration. i want to recognize vicky. give her a round of applause. thank you. >> chief scott, come on now, we are getting close. >> right now it is time to bring up a person that is really cool. she is the head of the department of emergency management. would you please welcome director maryelllen carol.

>> it is wonderful to see everyone here. i want to thank mayor london breed for being here. you look amazing. i want to thank all of the others chief scott and vicky. all of you who have been wonderful mentors to me in my new position, and i am humbled to be here to share the stage. i am going to be quick. with the department of emergency management. what it does is around personal and community preparedness. a couple directives today. one is to go to sf72.org. it is a great website about how to be prepared. on this beautiful morning when everything is great for the next morning we might wake up and things are not so great. secondly, you can sign up for alerts with sf alert.

text 888777, put in your zip code. we will senduallerts about all kinds of things that might help but particularly natural disasters so we can contact you. today if you are signed up we are doing a drill at 11:00 a.m. we are here for you. one of the most important things we the department of emergency management drew is to communicate with all of you in the event of anything happening. please sign up. thank you for being here. i will turn it back to bob. [applause.] >> all right. it is almost 5:11. i will put these folks on alert. the mayor, we are going to hang the wreath right after our minute of silence which is right

now to remember those who perished and those who survived to rebuild san francisco. please, 30 seconds of silence right now. >> thank you. here is the sound of the siren. we will remember those who passed and for us to be ready for the future. [ sirens ]

>> for those who perished and survived to rebuild san francisco, let us continue. if the mayor would gather up here on stage to hang the wreath everybody. >> we have very inexperienced

wreath hangers, ladies and gentlemen. nice job. how about a nice hand for our wreath hangers. we are going to do a little singing. we will sing san francisco. do you want to start it with us? >> thank you for coming. here we go. one, two, three. ♪ it only takes a tiny corner of this great big world to find a place you love ♪ ♪ my home upon the hill, i love you still ♪

♪ eye hav i have been aware bm back to tell you san francisco open your golden gates, you will meet no stranger ♪ ♪ san francisco here is your wandering no more ♪ ♪ other places make me love you best, tell me you are the heart of the golden west ♪ ♪ san francisco, bring me home again ♪ ♪ i'm coming home to go wandering no more ♪ (applause). >> fantastic for 5:15 in the morning. we are going to 20th and church. if you want you can be in this

streetcar number one for the ride up to the golden hydrant. it is right over here. right here. look at that. right there. if you want to join us, please do. we would like to thank you for being here for this great day. we will see you next year, god willing. adjourned. >> shop & dine in the 49 promotes local businesses and challenges residents to do their shop & dine in the 49 with within the 49 square miles of san francisco by supporting local services within the neighborhood we help

san francisco remain unique successful and vibrant so where will you shop & dine in the 49 my name is jim woods i'm the founder of woods beer company and the proprietor of woods copy k open 2 henry adams what makes us unique is that we're reintegrated brooeg the beer and serving that cross the table people are sitting next to the xurpz drinking alongside we're having a lot of ingredient that get there's a lot to do the district of retail shop having that really close connection with the consumer allows us to do exciting things we decided to come to treasure island because we saw it as an amazing opportunity can't be beat the views and real estate that great county starting to develop on treasure island like minded business owners with last week products and want to get on

the ground floor a no-brainer for us when you you, you buying local goods made locally our supporting small business those are not created an, an sprinkle scale with all the machines and one person procreating them people are making them by hand as a result more interesting and can't get that of minor or anywhere else and san francisco a hot bed for local manufacturing in support that is what keeps your city vibrant we'll make a compelling place to live and visit i think that local business is the lifeblood of san francisco and a vibrant community

>> supervisor mandelman: good morning. this meeting will come to order. this is the meeting of the public services and neighborhood services meeting. i want to thank samuel and calina at sfgtv for staffing this program. mr. clerk, do you have any announcements? >> clerk: yes. nd