the hospitals outside of san francisco have very limited icu capacity and, again, california hospitals outside of san francisco and sacramento have no hospital icu capacity. we also know that hospitalizations lag about two weeks behind case increases. so unfortunately we expect this number of hospitalizations in san francisco to continue to climb for now. we will be watching these numbers very closely in weeks to come. next slide please. but this slide shows what we have accomplished and we can continue to accomplish when we work together. we use the reproductive rate, re on the top of the slide, we use that rate to project hospitalizations and deaths. look at these numbers. i know there's a lot of detail here but i will go through the

slide with some time. we use the reproductive rate of the virus to project hospitalizations and deaths. on december 5th the rate was estimated to be 1.45. at that time, we were looking at nearly 1500 hospitalizations and 544 additional deaths by march 1st. by december 26th with our early implementation of the stay at home order december 6th and with the state's order being put into effect about a week after that, we pushed the reproductive rate down to 1.13. look what that did to our numbers. it declined an estimate of 1200 fewer hospitalizations peaking in february. and over 500 deaths averted.

now we need to continue to make this progress continue. to get our reproductive rate below one. if we are able to do that by the new year, we will continue to save lives and hospitalizations. 210 hospitalizations would be predicted and while one death is too many, significantly fewer deaths than what are projected for the reproductive rate at 1.13. as we lower the reproductive rate, we see fewer sick people requiring fewer icu beds and fewer people dying. by staying home and not gathering, we have been able to prevent hundreds of hospitalizations and save so many lives. our goal is to get -- needs to be to get the reproductive rate below one.

we have done it twice before and i know that we can do it again. it is an incredible effort by all of us that will result in slowing the spread of covid-19. i know it comes with sacrifice. thank you for everything you are doing and everything we are giving up today, this week, this month so that we can save lives. and i'll all be here for the va. as we head into this new year's eve, let's remember that the power is in our hands to continue to turn this surge around. hundreds of families in san francisco will have a chance to spend next new year's eve together in good health because of the choices we make this week. we must continue to take the preventive measures that we know slow the spread of covid-19,

avoid gatherings, do not gather with people outside of your immediate households. do not travel. keep your distance and cover your face with a mask when and if you have to go out. remember, it is also key that if have you traveled outside of the bay area counties region recently, you must quarantine for 10 days when you arrive or return to san francisco. by taking these steps together, by supporting each other, we have done relatively well in the last two weeks and we see signs as i just reviewed that we are slowing the surge. but i must emphasize, this surge is still our biggest yet and we cannot afford to have a christmas or new year's surge on top of the surge that we are already experiencing. that would be catastrophic.

we simply can't let this get worse. we don't have good insight into the impact of the christmas holiday until january 2nd at the earliest, until january 8th for the impact of new year's. and there's also another new variable. as you may have seen in the news, the united kingdom has identified a variant strain of covid-19. while the cdc has not identified the variant in the united states yet, it is very likely that it could be here but is not yet detected. now, this is not a surprise. all viruses mutate over time and some of the mutations change the way the virus behaviors. this variant has changes in what is called the spike protein, making it easier to transmit the virus to others.

at this time, there's no evidence that this variant causes more severe illness or increased death and i emphasize again, this variant has not been detected in this country, california or san francisco. we also have no evidence that the covid-19 vaccines recently approved will have any trouble working against the variant. the vaccine scientists are testing to confirm this. we will learn of more variants over time and others have been described in other parts of the world. the core covid-19 prevention methods not gathering, keeping at least six feet apart, wearing masks and washing hands should still work to prevent the spread of the virus variants and strains and as we learn more, we'll adjust our efforts as we have during this pandemic.

and for now, we will continue to require that people who travel outside the bay area quarantine for 10 days. let's continue to work together. let's keep the pressure on the virus and continue to turn this surge around. let's begin the new year by pushing the curve lower. stay at home as much as possible. please, please wait until new year's of 2022 for the traditional new year's celebration. this year, keep it distant, keep the community safe, we are so close, again, to beating back this third surge. let's keep it going for 2021. thank you. >> thank you for your patience director. when you're ready, we'll start

the q&a. >> i'm ready. >> we have a couple of questions asking about new year's eve. new year's eve is typically a time to celebrate together, gather to watch fireworks and ring in the new year with family and friends. what impact would normal celebrations have on our covid-19 rate? >> so, i cannot emphasize enough how catastrophic it will be if people celebrate in the ways we normally do for new year's eve. we can continue to move forward and slow the spread of the virus if we see a surge like we did on thanksgivi thanksgiving, we'll have thousands more people in the hospital, hundreds more people dying. we have been fortunate in the bay area so far compared to other regions in the state but we simply cannot afford to have

people gather. there's more virus out there than ever before. you simply can't get away with things you may have been able to get away with even during the prior surges. it is one new year's eve. i know it has been a hard year but the vaccine is on the way. we need to gather by zoom, by phone, by whatever social media we used to be together for new year's eve outside of our immediate households. please do not celebrate in ways that have been done in the past. this is a very dangerous time and if we can get through the next few weeks, we will get through this surge, it's much more likely we'll get through this surge. >> thank you. the next question is how many people in the city have so far been vaccinated?

>> so, what i can tell you is that within the health department, we have vaccinated 4,000 front line workers in our hospitals as well as our first responders. we unfortunately don't have insight into how many have been vaccinated in the city at this time. the vaccine being distributed by the state to healthcare systems what they're calling multi county providers and we do not have insight into how many vaccines are being distributed to these multi county provider systems. and then being directed to the healthcare systems in san francisco. we have asked the state for that information and the state has committed that that information will be provided but unfortunately we don't have it at this time. >> thank you.

the next question is what do these latest projections mean for the stay at home order? >> so, with regard to the state's stay at home order, right now the bay area region is still below that 15% threshold we need to be in three weeks for the stay at home order to be lifted. at this time, we expect we will continue to stay in that stay at home order situation. so these numbers, i think the point is, if the numbers continue to go down, if we are able to hold off on the surge because of christmas holiday or the new year's holiday, the sooner we'll be able to get out of the situation. and that would indicate the sooner we can have the state stay at home order lifted and san francisco stay at home order lifted, which will be lifted once icu capacity is at 25% and

cases and hospitalization s are going down and the sooner we can start a gradual reopening and get life back to a more normal situation as we did have before the surge started in november. so whatever we do now, the sooner we can go back to a new normal. >> thank you dr. colfax. the next set of questions, does the department of public health or state health department even have the capacity to determine if the variant has arrived in the bay area through blood samples. if not, will you expect to see it in the data based on an increase in spread of the virus? >> so there are a number of labs, including at ucsf that is detecting the genetic patterns

of the virus that could identify the variant if and when it occurs. overall the united states does a very low number of sequencing of the viral strains compared to other countries but ucsf and other labs do sequence a proportion of virus, so we would expect if and when this variant enters the country, the state or the region, it would eventually be detected. >> thank you. the next question is since the beginning of the vaccination process has the department of public health received any reports of people suffering bad reactions or having problems with it? >> we haven't had any reports of severe consequences to administering the vaccine that i'm aware of at this time.

>> thank you. and the last question is it's been reported operation warp speed is falling behind in the goal of shipping 20 million doses of the vaccines to states by early january. the cdc had reports of 2.1 million vaccinations out of 11.4 million shipped. is the city experiencing any problems in the vaccine rollout because of it? >> so as i commented earlier, we don't have full visibility to how much vaccine is being distributed to multiple entities and then distributing it even in san francisco. so, again, the multi county health system entities that are receiving vaccines from the state now. we don't know how much they're receiving and how much will flow to san francisco. what i can say, the health

department has vaccinated over 4,000 front line workers to protect them from covid-19. i'm happy to say we expect in partnership with walgreens that vaccines are expected to start for staff at the hospital who haven't been vaccinated and residents. things are moving forward with vaccination. but, again, we don't have full visibility into this. we are collaborating and cooperating with the state and hospital systems across the city to gain a better understanding but really the state has said we will get that but we don't have it yet. >> okay. thank you. this concludes today's press conference. thank you dr. colfax for your time. for future questions, please e-mail dempress@sfgov.org.

>> thank you and stay safe everyone. ♪ . >> you're watching coping with covid-19 with chris manners. >> hi. i'm chris manners, and you're watching coping with covid-19. today, my guest is phil ginsburg. he's the director of the san francisco rec and parks, and he's a national rec and park ranger. thank you for being here. >> hi, chris. thank you for having me. >> i've heard you have an

exciting new exhibit that features social distancing and is outside, so it's safer. can you tell us a little bit about it? >> the golden gate 50 anniversary wasn't the celebration that we hoped for, but when life deals you lemons, you hope to make lemonade, and we tried to engage people in the park in different ways. behind me is what we did. it's a public exhibit which has transformed peacock meadows into ann enchanted forest of other worldly shapes and lights. it's to close out golden gate

park's 150 years and to allow people to have outdoors socially distant fun. >> great. and what are the hours, and when can people go see it, and are there access for wheelchairs and strollers? >> well, it will run until february 27, and the ways are wheelchair accessible. it will close in time to make the city's curfew. we're not supposed to be gathering. we're not supposed to be celebrating out there, unfortunately. it is a beautiful exhibit and is one that can be seen from the sidewalk or you can wander into the meadow, but we ask that people be really mindful of the circumstances in which we find ourselves.

the most important thing for us is to be safe and healthy. do not show up with other households. come and see it, get a little taste of the holidays and leave so other people can enjoy it. if it's too crowded, comeback because it's going to be around for a while. >> how long does it take to walk around the exhibit? >> well, you could be there for five minutes or 15 minutes or longer if it's not crowded. it's about in an acre of meadow, but it's very visible even from a fully accessible sidewalk. you'll get a sense of it. basically, there are sculpted trees, and it's gorgeous.

i got an opportunity to visit it over the weekend. the conservatory of flowers is there, and then, we have our amazing spreckels temple of music which was recently renovated and lit up in lights. >> i have information that it was created by a local artist. what can you tell us about it? >> well, it's a new concept, but the lights were previously installed in a park in toronto

and also in las vegas. the installation has been paid for through private donations to the golden gate park's san francisco 150 campaign. it reflects a culture steeped in science and history and culture. >> i can't wait to visit it. safely, of course. >> wear masks, distance, sanitize, and don't gather. >> well, thank you for coming on the show today, mr. ginsburg. i appreciate the time you've given us today. >> thank you, and thank you for giving so much attention to golden gate park which has been so wonderful for us during covid and deserves a lot of

extra love and attention on its 150 an remembniversary. >> and that's it for this episode. we'll be back with more information shortly. thank you for watching coping with

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