or tweet me @jimcramer. what the heck would it take for this market to form a lasting bottom so we don't have to sell every rally? including today where we spent much of the day in the red until the dow had one of these bizarre bear market spike rallies. up 52 points. nasdaq fell 2.1%. what would it take to switch from capital preservation mode to capital appreciation mode? something that needs to happen before a sustained advance can begin. it's not just price. it's not just returning to the august 24 lows. all weekend i worked on this. i put together an extensive checklist of the things that need to happen before we can be more concerned about making money than we are with not losing money. let's go right to it. first off, the federal reserve must change the debilitating narrative it's adopted after that first rate hike in december. i understand their job is not to keep the stock market higher. they're goal is not to prop it

it's to balance growth versus inflation in many categories. ben burnanke's fed spoke with one voice. the fed under janet yellen has left the course since that first rate increase to go to a lock step series of hikes. and that change has been accompanied by a cacophony of fed voices rooting for still higher rates or pooh-poohing them. you figure it out, i can't. we have to have some changes here. one, the fed must know its own strength and recognize that when it talks endlessly about hikes, it's freezing the business world and creating tremendous uncertainty because people think, how can that possibly be, how can they know that much? because they don't. far better for the fed to say, and i quote, "we have put through an increase and since then seen commodity deflation and a slowdown in wage growth so we must monitor these before we

that means we need to get off a timetable and go back to being data dependent." that would in itself cause a tradeable bottom, at least. this change is so important because right now we have a climate of fear and uncertainty which is not conducive to any kind of investment, business, stocks or otherwise. yellen needs to lay down the law and say, when you become a fed governor or president, you cannot speak about fed policy because it leads to tremendous confusion. the can a could have annie must end and the bit players must offer a polite no conference when asked. there's no freelancing among the president's cabinet, there shouldn't be among the fed either. the fed needs to adjust its inputs for what i call the amazon-ization of the american economy.

temporary analysis of the decline in commodities like oil. there's an unrecognized structural change in all these commodity markets that's been going on and the fed is ignoring it. oil is not done going down. second big picture item on the checklist, the political uncertainty must resolve itself. it's going to take some time here. right now the democratic front runner is being challenged by an ultraliberal senator. today she talked about a rich person surcharge. the republican frontrunner, while very wealthy, is very antagonistic to wall street and the wealth created by it. they're poised to make the situation uglier. domestic politics are

capital preservation. third big picture item, china has got to become more of a positive, anywhere, any part of it, any line item. china needs to clean up its act with the government becoming more transparent and the stock market more stable or at least honest and working. right now the chinese communist party is empirically judging by traditional commodity inputs doing nothing meaningful to stimulate the economy or reform the recession. all attempts to make china serve its economy well are being undone by amateurs and officials trying to manage the stock market. the chinese are trying to manage a bubble of massive proportions by encouraging individuals to open a plethora of accounts. until the bubble is officially burst and the shanghai composite gives up 33% of its gains, right

was in 2014 when the bubble began, the chinese stock market is not to be trusted by you. the phony shanghai 3,000 line in the sand has no bearing whatever and is totally a function of restricted selling and government buying. something that's eating up china's reserves at a rapid pace. one look at the index tells you about the absurdity of its current inflated price. let them flow free using rules similar to what the sec developed. let the chips fall, even if it means some investors get hurt. only then will both bargains and credibility be restored, which would mean we could stop focusing on a stock market that we all viewed as irrelevant until roughly 18 months ago. fourth, commodities have got to stop going down, commodities. it's created imbalances around the world.

aluminum remain in free fall, because china is no longer taking any of them. it's decimating whole companies. think everyone from caterpillar to u.s. steel to entire countries like brazil. we have to be concerned about everything from too much countries failing to too many companies including alcoa, sold to you. here is the bottom line. before this market can bottom, a number of things need to change, including the federal reserve's stance on the need for more rate hikes, and a bottom in all of the free falling commodities out there. these points present some of the biggest set ups.

ralph. >> caller: jim, what would you think about shell oil company for a very young investors? >> i think it would be wrong. young investors should be look at these companies that are high growth, that are now right on their butt because everyone hates high growth. when you get involved in a long term fossil fuel situation, you'll regret it. fossil fuels will look like tobacco 20 years ago. barbara. >> caller: hi, jim. i recent bought 600 shares of new york community bancorp. i noticed today it was trading around 15.30. should i buy more at this low price, hold on to it, or possibly sell some or all of it, or maybe you have a better recommendation. >> i think you're fine. i want you to stop looking at it day to day like that. you're down very little. this is a long term game, this

and i think that new york community bank is doing fine. if the fed raises rates like they keep claiming they'll do, that stock will go to 20. thank you for the call. paul in florida. paul. >> caller: hi. i recently bought stanley black & decker for $107 based on the projected strong housing sector in 2016. with the stock market's apparent free fall, and if interest rates go up again, i'm concerned the stock will fall further. should i just hold on, buy more, or take my losses? >> it has fallen further. i've been buying it for my travel trust. one of these big gaps down, we buy a little. why? because home depot has said that business is strong. they've got a nice turn going on in europe. it's inexpensive stock. does that mean it bottoms in '96? i don't know. try to build a position in the company. it's more valuable than what it's selling for.

that need to happen before a lasting bottom. my hunt for a bottom continues. don't miss the second half of my checklist including how some of last year's wall street winners factor in to making money. then what becomes of the broken hard, or in this case broken momentum stock when i examine under armour. people are already hating alcoa. what else is new? stick with cramer. >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc.

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what needs to happen before we can stop being terrified of this market and start making some money? i've already told you, along with the vicious pain in china and free fall in oil commodities, that's just the tip of the iceberg. more things need to happen.

fifth box that needs to be checked, really important, we need oil, which got obliterated again today, to stop going down. i don't see it down in sight here. my friend who wrote "the domino effect" makes it clear that it's unimaginable if the current situation doesn't change. he thought the marginal producers in the u.s. would have stopped their production by now. it turned out not to be the case. banks forgave domestic customers. cost of drilling came down and production has only just now started to peak, something that every single prognosticator failed to anticipate. brazil pretty much pioneered the lower/longer thesis, that oil prices would stay low for a long time. he threw cold water on the u bottom, the v bottom, the w bottom. he's quick to criticize those

it seems pretty far-fetched to rusty. that means many bankruptcy and reorganizations must occur. you'll see some big companies that we'll talk about in a second really i think -- let's just say they won't look like they do now. i'm worried about them. i'm also worried about a host of smaller players in many of the pipeline companies who may have a hard time paying their debts out of depleted cash flow. it all comes due in 2016 if oil doesn't stop going down, and i don't think it will, unless there's a crisis in the middle east. the entire fossil fuel complex is under financial attack. there will be many failures before the whole market can stabilize. the big consumers of energy will profit. for the moment, the positives simply don't matter. sixth, the world seems very unstable. north korea is doing more than just saber-rattling.

states. saudi arabia has broken off relations with iran. the fight between the west and russia has not been resolved and puts a damper on growth in either region. britain is debating whether to pull out of the eu. the immigration crisis in europe is nowhere near resolution. there are armed conflicts going on all over the place like the saudi-yemen war that aren't even being covered. and don't even get me started on iraq and afghanistan. this is not a world that makes you want to invest. seven, we need all these brain dead zombie companies out, put to death. when it happens, their bonds will crater, not just their stocks.

of bad debt. so are chesapeake and freeport. these are the kind of situations that will reopen the notion of systemic risk. i don't see systemic risk in this country. but until we bake in that kind of talk, we will not get the advance. number 8, the dollar needs to stop going higher. we're about to enter another earnings season where once again we'll hear that the super freaking strong dollar wrecked economies. the currencies of developing countries, have you seen the riyal? just like '97, '98. until the dollar gets weaker we're unlikely to see stabilization. the fed should be taking this into account but at the moment it only seems to care about employment.

healthy merger market. last year may have been the peak in m&a activity. but that doesn't mean there can't be more deals. one look at the last few transactions, all of which have led to lower prices for both the targets and the acquirers, including today's deal with shire pharma, shows how sick this market has become. that's got to stop. 10, a return to healthy ipo market. right now we have no functioning market whatsoever to allow many of the private equity deals to come to the market or reliquify their balance sheets before we go into a recession. plus we have all these shaved unicorns that haven't had a chance to go public because they wouldn't want to embarrass their venture capital investors. it's a disaster for capital appreciation. 11, the autos are in the high

they peaked at a good level. many of the stocks of the sector not yet reflecting what may be a precipitous fall thanks in part to the fed tightening. it isn't some abstraction, people. housing stocks are demonstrate ing pornographic drops, can't even look at it. a nice little burst by apple, every dog is getting its day. i like apple. while these stocks are cheap, no stock can stand an onslaught of number cutting. interest rates seem to go higher because of a lack of demand of money, putting the kibosh on the hope that banks will rally. last week the retailers and restaurants have been trying to rally and failing. we need more sectors to return

given the piece i just outlined. right now the charts are disaster, although a spike like we had at the end of the day can't be ruled out, but you'll have to sell the spike, not buy it. we need to see an end, for f.a.n.g. -- facebook, amazon, netflix, and google -- to give up the ghost. big gains in these, don't want to take them. these companies are doing very well but their stocks reflect too much optimism. i know people say, thanks, cramer, you told me to buy it. not true. i did at one point but not since the fed started raising. get it together, will you? finally, west a tradeable bottom this fall when the bears dramatically outnumber the bulls. that stopped when the bears were driven out right up until the end of last year. we're paying for that hangover. the beginning of 2016 has seen a rapid change of sentiment.

of settlement. we didn't have that washout. all but the most value-oriented buyers, we haven't seen that capitulation either. you need to see capitulation. the bottom line, many of these issues on the checklist must be resolved before we can be more concerned about making money rather than losing money. i wish it were more simple. i wish it were happier. there will be pockets of opportunities as always and i'll highlight them for you. they will be fewer and far between without more boxes checked and fears quelled by facts, not fantasy. much more "mad money" ahead. under armour fell nearby 7%, the opposite of lululemon. does it have the endurance to get back up? how about alcoa, down 20% since the new year? you know that's going to go lower. let's speak to the ceo anyway. i'm not border. the healthcare sector has been down seven of the past eight days.

why don't we speak to the ceo. what becomes of the broken hearted momentum stock, one that had love that's now departed? i have to find some peace of mind. i recognize they weren't singing

crooned those lyrics, but every day the heartache grows a little stronger and the owners can't stand the pain much longer. that actually does describe the situation owners of under armour find themselves in. morgan stanley slapped a sell on it. a sell! the worst thing you can do to a stock! the ultimate insult! but the sell call had a little bit of rigor to it. declining share and average selling price a dual threat. downgrade to underweight. keep in mind that premium valuation. multiple counts. one, data indicates near term earnings uncertainty is about more than just the weather. morgan stanley contends prices are being cut, particularly in

marketing push. footwear is down 20%, even though the industry is only off 4%. morgan stanley by implication is saying, they can't compete on price. maybe they can't compete with nike at their own game. third, estimates are too high. they're down to 23% and 21% for sales and earnings. brokerage is slashing its price target of underwar more from 103 to 62. 62! what a switch. no wonder the stock was down about five bucks today. wait a second, you mean all these analysts did was cut the growth rate by a couple of percentage points? tremendous sales and earnings quotes.

not the company which is fabulous, a fabulous company, it's under armour the stock which has valuation issues. even after the severe decline, the stock is not traditionally cheap, selling at roughly 43 times next year's numbers. the average stock is 17 times earnings. under armour again is no average company. it's a superior company with superior attitude and state of mind. it is so good in so many ways that it's difficult to imagine this one is anything other than an engine, a fount, of fabulous competitive products. i wear beautiful button down ua shirt to a party on friday. i wore my under armour pants this morning. don't even try to take that stuff away from me. companies have a history of relentlessly causing analyses to raise their numbers. once the spell is broken and the people believe the growth is decelerating, momentum buyers flee because they have no idea how to value a stock with declining growth rate.

not as fast. i've always regarded under armour as a technology company that happens to sell apparel. the fitness group has a whole ecosystem devoted to it which took on plenty of awards for wearables at the consumer electronics show last week. this company's tech edge makes it a dominant force. that's not reflected nearly enough in the morgan stanley report. but to momentum investors it means nothing. they like to buy stocks with accelerating revenue growth. they will flock to lululemon which just preannounced a surprise, even as lululemon cannot hold a candle to under armour when it comes to innovation or technology. what could stop the brutal decline? if under armour can savage those estimates, the slashed ones, in reports later this month, it can break the downward trajectory.

walking this land of broken momentum, stocks at least, where sadly, happiness is just an illusion filled with sadness and confusion. until this company can beat the numbers, the stock won't bottom until it's genuinely cheap, and it won't be genuinely cheap until -- george in texas. george? >> caller: jim, thanks for all that you do. i'm watching sketchers, i'm wondering if you still like it. >> yeah, i like sketchers. but we always have to understand what kind of market we're in. we're in a market where sketch certificates a speculative stock, therefore you put it away and recognize we're in a market which is absolutely in bear mode, a ridiculous market for even the best companies, and sketchers is one of the best. so we can judge the company or judge the stock. the stock is not going to reflect anything good right now because the market won't let it happen. tony in missouri.

jim, i've been watching your show for many years, i want to thank you for all your sound market advice. >> thank you. >> caller: my question today is about target. where do you see target's share price in the next six to 12 months? >> it's in my travel trust. it did fall down when they ported that last number, because the online business wasn't that good. that could change. in the meantime it's not expensive and it has a good yield and i like retail in an environment where it's cold and getting colder. all right. jimmy was something, wasn't he? the fruits of love from momentum stocks are tumbling down. the heartache will continue. much more "mad money" ahead. how is china impacting companies like alcoa? i'm talking with the ceo.

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i want to talk about a company with a stock that can't seem to get any respect in this market, alcoa, double a. this company acts like a hapless commodity maker.

the extraordinary action of splitting in two, giving you both what is a profitable commodity producer and a highly value-added aluminum technology company with an aerospace bent. i like the transformation although i am drawn more to the engineering side. let's dig deeper with klaus kleinfeld to find out where the company is headed. mr. kleinfeld, welcome back to "mad money." >> hello, jim. >> let's start with the businesses that will be part of the technically superior alcoa. automotive, china, 2 to 5, heavy duty trucking, china, 1 to 4. if you want to be in alcoa's markets, you'll have a good year in 2016, because you happen to be in the right markets, particularly in china. too bullish? >> well, a little bit too bullish in the environment that

would have expected that after last year's finish, you know, we open up this year with so much confusion in the market. i mean, we know that the financial market swings stronger than the industrial markets. i think there is a lot of volatility in there and markets communicate. in general i would say yes, we've worked very hard to be positioned in the markets that have growth. and on top of it, we actually have an accelerated growth in their markets because we are alum nizing these places. in aerospace we've built our portfolios over the last year. all of our customers appreciated it and they put their money where their mouthed is. we've got $9 billion in contracts, $4 billion in the last quarter alone. f-150, biggest selling car in the u.s. for 39 years or so. and what is the new f-150?

it's the major players all around the world, customers of ours. we're in those markets and we're growing above those markets. this is good. >> i want to talk about alcoa and what it looks like now. i think it's a mismatch. if you had broken into upstream two years ago, how much money would you have lost in this environment? >> you know what, i don't even want to think about it, because i think it's something that would make everybody sweat. the very fact that we didn't do this, because we continued to work on it, we have made it better. you saw again this year productivity of 1.2 billion, around half of this comes from the upstream. once we had done with all the containments, i would say 40% of our smelting capacity is

refining capacity, right? so we have really taken everything into our hands. we've come down on the cost curve. we've changed the architecture of the business. we didn't have an certainly bauxite business before. we've started to do this last year and it's working very, very well. we've made our energy business independent from delivering energy to our facilities. all these things are things that enabled us to generate more profit and give us more flexibility and allow the separation we are doing at the second half of this year. >> last quarter you talked about how it's not a story of china flooding the world with exports at all. you were saying that alcoa could be at a deficit. still possible, given the slowdown?

believe that. you will see in my later call today with the investors, we actually are taking the number off the aluminum deficit up for 2016, our forecast. we also believe there's going to be deficit on the alumina side. others are doing the same thing. 6% increase for aluminum and the same thing on the alumina side. in china, the bauxite, their own bauxite capabilities that they have in-country is depleting further. al malaysia has just announced a bauxite ban a week ago. indonesia has a bauxite ban in place. a lot of things support the upstream business. in addition, we've made it better, it's come down on the cost curve. >> let's talk about the engineer portion. when i look at how much is aerospace, because you've made

think about a company, i know this is really not initially analogous, but baxter, okay, so baxter has two businesses, it's a healthcare business. it's got a business that it doesn't really want that's healthcare. it immediately splits it off, and within ten days it gets a bid. why? because it was undervalued. no one saw the hidden value within. when i look at the breakout of just aerospace, forget gas turbine, forget f-150. i want that aerospace business. isn't this, with this stock at eight bucks, if it's still at eight bucks and you split these two, how can you not have that situation just because of the aerospace business? >> you're absolutely right. you clearly see there is enormous hidden value in this. and we have uncovered the hidden value. it wasn't there many, many years ago. i mean, we basically changed the composition of the value-add

we've put a lot into innovation. we've come up with really interesting innovations on those products we have. we've doubled the content in jet engines, probably the most important component in aerospace, and the most important driving innovation on platforms. at the same time we've consolidated the position on aircraft structures with innovations like aluminum and lithium. titanium is the largest growing metal in aerospace. with acquisition of rti, it's worked out very well. you see it in contracts coming in. rti, we wouldn't have had the opportunity, for instance, to win the c tracks for the 787 if we wouldn't have acquired rti. our customers see that our portfolio in our in aerospace is so good. >> one last question, elliott

certain things. are they happy? >> you have to talk to them to find out whether they're happy. all i can say, that the conversations have been very constructive, and frankly very much along the lines of how we are thinking, how i'm thinking. i think they see the same upside potential that we see. and we see it as a validation of the strategy that we've been apology. i was not surprised that they are coming in, and as i said, all the conversations so far are very constructive. >> klaus kleinfeld, chairman and ceo of alcoa, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> "mad money" is back after the break. (ugh.) does your carpet ever feel rough and dirty? don't avoid it, resolve it. our formula with a special conditioning ingredient,

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it is time for the lightning round. you say the name of the stock. i don't know the calls or the name of the stock ahead of time. i tell you whether to buy or sell. when you hear this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? nick in ohio. >> caller: should i buy, hold, or sell groupon? >> no, it's too early to touch that thing yet. bob in michigan. >> caller: booyah, jim. what do you think of epr properties? >> i like it, since they got the casino angle. 6.3% yield. that is the kind of stock i want people to buy. how about timothy in ohio. >> caller: hey, jimmy, how are you doing? we're looking at bpl

>> i will not say anyone should own a master limited partnership in a pipeline company. it's way too much and i don't want you in it with me. my travel trust owns one and it's been just nasty. mike in florida. >> caller: happy new year, jim, i love your show. >> thank you, mike. >> caller: xpo logistics. >> at another time or place, a perfect stock. right now companies don't like the high yield market. xpo is on hold right now, even though it seems cheap. until the market changes coloration, stocks like this are not going to get any credit. stephy in illinois. >> caller: jim? >> yeah. >> caller: i'm asking about merck. >> we say no to merck. i enjoyed the interview with meg

i think the play is pfizer in big cap tech. nice yield and doing a good merger. i'm not done. you think i'm done? i'm going to scott in ohio. >> caller: trinity industries. >> the kind of a bear market stock right now because it's connected with the rails. and the rails, as we see from csx, aren't doing as well as before. it's part of the vast complex of negativity that engulfs this market. tom in new jersey. >> caller: jim, i have a position in debon energy. it pays a very good dividend but the stock keeping going on. >> debon is part of the oil and gas complex. oil is not done as we heard from rusty brazil on friday. the domino effect, this complex could go still lower. i don't want to touch it until there's a 5% yield. that, ladies and gentlemen, is

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the entire pharma industry is under fire. some companies are feeling a level of heat that may not be justified, but it's killing the stocks. one such company is horizon pharma. the company has been acquisitive but it's also been innovating. the stock has gotten so cheap that some analysts are speculating it's a breakup candidate. the market is unkind to drug

and change. it got hit for a loss in today's trading. even as it's well above average growth. let's check in with the chairman and ceo who is coming to us from the j.p. morgan health conference. welcome back to "mad money." >> hi, jim, thanks for having me on again, really appreciate it. >> the journal started again with the price increases. could you please explain to our viewers while specialty pharmas are not something that you should be afraid of and not something that's driving the cost of healthcare up? >> the first thing is when you look at the average price that was discussed in much of the media, you have to factor in what the net price is to patients. so in our case, across many of our medicine, we use a lot of that money that is charged from

money to create access. our programs are purely designed to ensure that the patient gets the medicine their physician prescribed. and over 95% of our patients are paying less than $10 for their medicine, jim. we're trying to do the right thing to create that access. >> i think that it was reported today that the middle men are being hurt a little bit. is that because horizon is getting more directly in touch with the customer and don't need a middleman or healthcare maintenance organization that might not allow a drug to be given to the patient? >> you know, there have been some recently announced transactions like valiant and walgreen's. for the most part we distribute our medicine to the large wholesalers. if there is any change in their business, it may be through some of their ancillary operations. but no change that we've seen in

the wholesalers. they're the primary wholesalers that help us distribute the medicine. when you're talking about a rare disease, with those medicine we work through specialty pharmacies that help distribute the product and help patients gain reimbursement. >> horizon is rapidly transforming into more of an orphan drug company. that's good, but i actually liked the old company because it was consistent and made money. why are we going to a company that's orphan when you offer drugs that are terrific? >> well, jim, both are important. if you look at 2015, based on our guidance of 750 to $760 million in revenue, or 350 to 360, that's been fueled about 150% year over year in sales,

that, generating strong cash flow that's going to continue our entrance into the orphan space, as you saw with our acquisition which give us us an or fast medicine which we believe we can rapidly bring into the organization and fits into our rheumatology unit. as we look at it, the orphan medicine is a great growth driver we can invest in products which give us a program that will read out in december of this year. that indication alone is a 500 million to a $1 billion a year potential opportunity for us, which will give you a lot of that sales and ebitda you're looking for. >> talk to me about the fox chase studies on cancer. you're talking about some cancers where the medicine had very little luck. i know it's very early, can you

want to pursue it with fox chase and why it's actually something that could be within a couple of years fruition? >> right. fox chase cancer center has been in the forefront of developing agents called pdl-1 checkpoint inhibitors for concern cancer like bladder cancer and melanoma and others. some of that preclinical data gave indication that interferon gamma 1-b in our orphan business unit was shown to actually improve the response when pretreating. what we did was work with them to design a phase 1 trial to prove out that efficacy. we announced that we have gained an approval meeting, we're going to start enrolling patients shortly. in those indications alone, looking at bladder cancer alone, melanoma and others, this could be an opportunity for us at horizon. our long range plan is almost $2

as cancer. >> do you need two or three more crialtos in order to get to that number? >> importantly, we don't need any new companies or medicine to achieve our objectives. with our 265 million run rate in our existing orphan business, and our primary care business, those alone will help us achieve our 2016 objectives. any other acquisitions we do are upside to the numbers we've reported previously. >> that's terrific. good to see you, sir. >> thanks so much, jim, great to be on. >> this group is under fire. i think that these stocks will beaten up enough that they seem

stick with cramer. here in the city, parking is hard to find. seems like everyone drives. and those who do should switch to geico because you could save hundreds on car insurance. ah, perfect. valet parking. here's the keys. and, uh, go easy on my ride, mate. hm, wouldn't mind some of that beef wellington... to see how much you could save on car insurance, go to geico.com. ah! (car alarm sounds) it's ok! happy anniversary dinner, darlin' can this much love be cleaned by a little bit of dawn ultra? oh yeah. one bottle has the grease cleaning power of two bottles of this bargain brand.

sure, tradeable bottom or investable bottom. i want to see capital appreciation and not capital preservation. you saw my checklist, that's what matters to me. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it for you right here at "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you tomorrow. it's tuesday, january 12th, coming up on "early today" change is iny the wind. proem president obamaing going into the his final state of the union address. national champions for the