this morning on "early today," on the mend. the federal reserve delivers an upbeat assessment of the u.s. economy. escape plan. a pennsylvania shoplifter gives a store employee an eye full of mace. and president obama ards the nation's highest civilian honor to 16 distinguished the nation's highest civilian honor to 16 distinguished recipients. captions paid for by nbc-universal television hello and good morning. i'm christina brownment today we begin with leveling out.

those were the welcomed words that spoke volumes to both wall street and main street wednesday when federal reserve chairman ben bernanke declared the u.s. economy is finally on the mend. nbc's michelle franzen has the story. >> reporter: the federal reserve left interest rates unchanged wednesday. a sign that central bank believes the u.s. economic activity is leveling out. key factors the recession may have hit bottom include median home prices up 4% last quarter, a surge in the stock market, and growing stability in the financial sectors. the committee says it expects inflation will remain subdued, but the optimism is guarded. the fed will keep a close watch on other indicators. rising prices for commodities, crude oil and gas tied to the global economy. analysts say for the fed to avoid a double-dip recession, timing will be everything. >> they have to pull back quickly and be fleet of foot in

terms of not ruining the economy the other way, getting it overstimulated which would cause hyper inflation potentially, which would be ruinous once again but in a separate way. >> reporter: a numbers game on the surface, but for millions of out of work americans and businesses teetering on bankruptcy, it is a game of survival. in july, jobless numbers showed some improvement, but businesses are still cutting costs and economists are concerned how long it could take for the unemployed to find jobs. >> consumers are still struggling with sluggish income growth, higher state and local taxes and a lot of concerns about the loss of wealth in the stock market and the drop in their home values. >> reporter: the real recovery, analysts say, will not be felt until the crisis and confidence lifts and consumer spending, the true engine that drives the economy, shifts into gear. michelle franzen, nbc news, new york. from athlete to actor,

politician to physicist, 16 people gathered at the white house on wednesday to accept the nation's highest civilian honor. the presidential medal of freedom. describing the recipients of agents of change, president obama thanked them on behalf of the united states. the president also honored senator ted kennedy, whose battles with brain cancer prevented him from attending the ceremony. in a move sparking international outrage, the scottish government is considering an early prison release of a former lib yann agent convicted of the 1988 lockerbie bombing. he has terminal prostate cancer. in a bitterly ironic twist, therefore, the plane bomber would be released on, quote, compassionate grounds.

the 17-year-old is servinging a life sentence for blowing a pan am plane, killing 270 people, most of them americans. a scottish official said no decision has been made. now, here's a look at some other stories making news "early today" in america. pennsylvania police are searching for a woman who used pepper spray on a clerk when authorities say he tried to stop her from shoplifting. the employee became suspicious after he claimed to see the woman putting dvds into a handbag. when he confronted her, she pulled out a can of mace and sprayed him in the face before running off. when the masked men entered the establishment, it was full of off-duty police officers who were in town for a golf tournament. needless to say, the suspect was quickly tackled and arrested. it was a sticky situation for a woman in phoenix who discovered thousands of bees living under her bathtub.

animal experts were called in to remove the hive by cutting a hole in her house. free honey may sound like a sweet opportunity, but officials say in time the bees would have become far more dangerous. and in california, officials are warning some people to stay indoors after a black bear was spotted in a residential neighborhood. the animal estimated at 350 pounds was even seen trying to beat the heat in a backyard pull. it took a dip for several minutes before sauntering back into the wilderness. now for a look at your national and regional weather, here's nbc meteorologist bill karins with the weather channel forecast. good morning, bill. you can't blame the girl for taking a little dip. >> we don't want to hear the weather forecast, we want to see more of the bear and the pool. that was the good stuff. i can't top that. let's talk about the weather out there this morning. good morning on this thursday. we've still got some rain out there. the front is hung up on the eastern seaboard.

we have gorgeous weather for you today. less humid air is moving through the tennessee valley, also the ohio valley is ideal today. here's the setup. area of low pressure along the front, moving up here off the mid atlantic. brought rain overnight outside d.c., right outside philadelphia too. the showers in the lower hudson valley, through new england. show you those in a second. the front snakes its way through the southeast. so the humid air has been pushed to the south. now more or less southern georgia, florida and coastal carolinas. this is the canadian high. that means beautiful, nice weather. so as that low moves off the coast, you can see some of the rain we had between philadelphia and harrisburg. showers through the poconos, the lower hudson valley, right across connecticut and central mass along the pike we have showers too. but nothing that's too bad. later on today, that will be gone. the only storms will be down here in the southeast. that's a look at your national forecast. now here's a look at the weather outside your window. as i mentioned, beautiful today

in pittsburgh all the way to louisville. low to mid-80s. low humidity. gorgeous summer weather. it will be kind of stormy from myrtle beach to charleston. watch out this afternoon, some strong storms. that's a look at your thursday forecast, christina. >> all right. thanks so much, bill. market giant walmart reports earnings. and watch out for the sugar shortage. your early morning business headlines are straight ahead. plus, as rumors fly in the wake of her latest breakup, could jessica simpson be planning sweet revenge against her exes? the u.s. soccer team gets the boot in mechanics koempt pedro back in the bigs. and the yankees know how to win again. you're watching "early today."

good morning and welcome back to "early today." i'm christina brown.

and here are some of your top headlines this morning. russia's navy has launched a search for a ship that miss fear yous went missing last month. the vessel called the arctic sea was last heard of off portugal waters. the captain indicated it had been raided by men claiming to be police officers but had been released. a new report says after a decade on the decline, activity among right winged militia groups is up again. these groups angered by the election of president obama as the first u.s. african-american president are experiencing their most significant growth in 10 to 12 years. according to this morning's "washington post," former vice president dick cheney is expressing disappointment with george w. bush as cheney reflects on his relationship in his memoirs. he said he felt bush had been moving away from him in his

second term and even hardened against his advice. in california, a great gain that rain is the world's tallest dog has lost his battle with brain cancer. gibson gained fame for his height, appearing on several shows, including "the tonight show." and now here's an early look at how wall street will kick off the day. the dow opens at 9,361 after leaping 120 points on wednesday. the s&p nudged up 11. and the nasdaq gained 28 points. taking a look at overseas trading this morning, in tokyo, the nikkei rose 82 points, while in hong kong, the hang seng soared 426 points. the upbeat mood on wall street wednesday put the market's summer rally back on track. as we reported earlier, a positive take on the nation's economy by the fed jump-started a buying streak that stalled earlier this week sending markets up 1% across the board.

while other areas of the economy are improving, home foreclosures remain a big concern. the u.s. households on the verge of losing their homes rose a record 7% from june to july. amid concerns over a sugar shortage, kraft, general mills and hershey, urged the government to ease federal import restrictions. the companies have threatened layoffs and price hikes if imports are not allowed. one of the few hedge fund managers to predict the mortgage healthdown had been stockpiling bank stocks signifying his confidence in the sector. macy's credited aggressive cost-cutting measures with its better-than-expected earnings. despite a drop in same-storm sales of 10%, macy's boosted its profit for the coming year, sending shares up 6%. investors will find out this morning how one of america's

largest discounters is fairing when wall street weighs in before the opening bell today. the discount chain is expected to show flat resultses compared to last year at around 86 cents per share. and wall street will get to a broader look at consumer spending habits when monthly retail sales are reported this morning. economists predict july figures will improve slightly, but warn consumers are still feeling the heat from an economy struggle to go recover. consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation's economy. finally, if you just happen to have a month of vacation scheduled from september 8th through october 8th, get this, jetblue is offering all you can fly tike ets where passengers can actually book an unlimited amount of flights over a month for just $599. well, suspensions from tuesday night's base brawl. and another one breaks out last night. plus, do not adjust your set yet. that's the absent, long absent

pedro martinez back in the major leagues. your early morning sports headlines are straight ahead. your weather headlines are storms in the southeast and heat in the mountain areas. your forecast is coming up. you're watching "early today."

good morning. if you're just waking up, this is "early today." in sports, the philadelphia phillies pedro martinez made a triumphant return to baseball last night, showing doubters his arm may have a little life left in it after all. here's nbc's bill seward with an early look at all your sports headlines. a very good morning to you. last time we saw pitcher pedro martinez he was sub .500 with the mets last year. say hello to the rejuvenated philly flash. three-same cy young winner was looking like his old self. philly offense did the rest. jimmy rollins, we have liftoff. three-run bomb, part of an eight-run fourth for the phils. we go to the fifth. bleacher brain surgeon. early shower for shane victorino. we live in a agreesless age.

12-5, the champs giants and dodgers. don't like each other. james mcdonald in on sandoval. he claims malice a fore thought. no punches thrown. no ejections. fast forward to the 10th. uribe. let's go home. two-run walkoff shot. 4-2 win. san francisco just a half game out of the wild card in the national leagues. yankees and blue jays, bottom of the 11th. robinson with an rbi single. fist place yanks. 41-18 at home after beating the blue jays, 4-3. one other baseball ♪, red sox kevin juke list and rick porcello have been suspended five games for their bench clearing brawl. soccer, u.s. and mexico, world cup qualifier. u.s. has never won in mexico, and it wasn't going to happen yesterday. tied at one in the 81st minute. miguel fires one past.

that's your early look at sports on "early today." i'm bill seward. the couple america loves to hate throws more gas on the fire. your early morning entertainment headlines are straight ahead. plus, critics say there are no more heroes, but if you look they are there and they actually come in all shapes and sizes. you're watching "early today."

well, good morning. just got a new update from the national hurricane center. tropical depression number 2 is not even close to becoming our first named system ana of the season. if anything, it looks horrible this morning. no thunderstorms at all. there's a chance it may not survive the day. behind it is a more impressive area of showers and storms. that will be the next region to watch. as far as the forecast for today, beautiful ohio valley, tennessee valley, all the way back here heading into new england. the only areas with rain today, mostly the southeast coast. a lot of heavy rain possible in the carolinas. well, if you'reatching wdiv local 4 in detroit, michigan, travel through the frigid ice cave and meet the polar bears and seals that call the arctic home at the arctic ring of life. that's your eastern event of the day, christina.

pretty cool. >> all right. thanks so much, bill. it's tough enough recovering from a breakup. now imagine the tabloids covering your every move. that's jessica simpson's life right now following her nasty breakup with quarterback tony romo. simpson is, quote, turning to alcohol to deal with the breakup. the same publication reports another simpson ex, john mayer, is showing nude pictures of jessica to all his friends. "star" magazine claims she's writing a tell-all book about her ex boyfriends, including dane cook and a wild one-night stand with jude law. well, if you thought heidi montag and spencer pratt could not get more obnoxious, you probably don't want to read their interview in playboy. a too-much-information discussion of their sex lives saying,quote, i feel sorry for couples who aren't as sexually satisfied as we are.

finally, seen that miller, who was recently accused of breaking a marriage, is on a much more stable path. she's dating someone who is, first of all, not married, a deejay called shrinky lizard. well, that's the first step to recovery. >> don't have to worry about anybody reading playboy. let's get that out there right now. this comes from wnbc 4 new york where a boy's quick thinking saved the life of his mother but also his unborn sister. the soon-to-be first grader calmly dialed 911 after his pregnant mother collapsed with a seizure. his brave actions earned him the title honorary paramedic with the new york city fire department. his first assignment, teaching his sister how to respond to an emergency. good for him. well, i'm christina brown. this is just your first stop of the day today on your nbc

station.

[captioning made possible by constellation energy group] captioned by the national captioning institute --www.ncicap.org-- >> i opened thursday is going well this morning. we had some heavy downpours last night. it started yesterday afternoon late. the upper level low had a significant amount of rainfall on the eastern shore. there is a flash flood watch in affect through this evening for the eastern shore in northeast maryland. the areas highlighted in the grain is under the flash flood warning.

-- in the green is under the flash flood warning. not too bad in other parts of baltimore. chances of showers and storms. everybody is not going to get the intense rainfall. it is hit or miss. much cooler. we have been across the board this week. more coming up for you. >> here is a look ahead at "11 news today." >> examining the culture of violence in baltimore city and what can be done to change it. >> the federal reserve releases and upbeat outlook on the economy. why is not everybody's celebrating? that story is coming up. >> there is one problem that could affect your ride on the