stand up? he's won the nobel peace prize, but at home even his fans are nervous. when will the man in the white house deliver the great american presidency he promised? when will the hero of hope be the leader of action? let's look at the record. has the complaining left got a case in fact? barack obama never promised the government-run health care plan. certainly never promised to quit afghanistan. is the white house now letting the noisemakers dictate the scorecards? and finally, unshockable. david letterman admits all and it's cost him nothing job-wise. so what's changed? some paid dearly. why not dave? is it ok these days to be a cad? hi, i'm chris matthews. welcome to the show. barge barge, senior political analyst for cnn. clarence page writes a column, and david ignatius is a "washington post" columnist. first up, in the last few weeks

the letdown between the allies seems to have spread. they're disappointed that some issues haven't been pushed and they're worried about the skill of the white house team. they're distressed at the heroic obama of the campaign, the guy who murdered a nobel peace prize is looking far more ordinary in washington. the first year has been critical for presidents who have gotten re-elected. f.d.r. pushed through his new deal in his first year. reagan passed big tax cuts and when bill clinton did his big deficit crunch, and nafta, with just two months left, many obama supporters are wavering. in the last "wall street journal" poll the number of democrats and independents who like obama personally, but don't like his policies, has doubled. that's since back in january when he took office. in his statement about the nobel prize, the president acknowledged that the big job is still ahead of him. >> we are dealing with the impact of a global economic crisis that has left millions of

americans looking for work. these are concerns that i confront every day on behalf of the american people. some of the work confronting us will not be completed during my presidency. >> well, david, he's picked up some critics the last several months. people on the left and the center who would be disposed, in fact, like him personally, but are waiting for some action. whose fault is all this? >> well, the white house says they like where they are now. they like this picture of a president who's working hard, trying hard, not making a lot of progress on issues, but contrasting that with republicans, who are so negative who, just don't give any ground on key issues. they know that they've got to deliver on health care. talking to white house people this week -- >> must win. >> they said if in a month we have not delivered on health care, we're going to lose these people in the center who want the president to succeed, who care about these issues and are waiting for him to take charge. so it's really going to come down to that. if he can pull that off, i think he gets a sort of after burner

effect for his presidency and then he'll begin to get some traction. >> so it's not so much about his posture politically, it's his performance. and her's the question, andrea. is it about focus? is he disciplined enough? is he focused enough to go after the big prize here? >> he is disciplined enough. i think the staff needs to get more disciplined. look, they inherited the worst economic crisis, so that was put in front of them. they didn't ask for that. so they had to deal with that first. there's no question about it. but they are taking on too much. i think we saw what happened with the trip to the olympics, that that was a silly venture that they shouldn't have done. these distractions, they need to put all that aside. i would agree with one thing -- the timeline. they're not going to get health care in a month. they'll be lucky if it's on the floor by thanksgiving. the timeline is stretched out. >> but you agree, they have to get it done this year. >> they have to get it done and i think they will get it done. >> i think the president had a

choice when he took office. there's a huge economic crisis. he could have decided i'm just going to focus like a laser, as we used to say, on the economic crisis, right? or i'm going to do that, and i'm going to do the rest of my agenda. it was the president who made a clear decision that he was going to continue with the rest of his agendas. and now we have to see whether in fact that was a real overreach. chris: ok, the question still comes down to the ability of discipline yourself according to what your goal is. reagan had a goal, cuss taxes. eisenhower had a goal, go to korea. he did. this president says it's health care. let's agree -- we all do -- he's got to win this thing. is this nobel peace prize, which comes out of nowhere this week, is that something that's going to help them a bit on the left or is it going to embarrass him? >> somebody said that oslo has reseemed what copenhagen lost for obama. you've got another committee sending a statement to the world, hey, he's ok after wall.

but, yeah, it is kind of odd that only after nine months or so he's getting the nobel peace prize. my personal vote would have gone to tiananmen square. it's the 20th anniversary and there's a lot of disappointment that didn't happen. as far as his left is concerned, this bowlsters the negative concern that he's getting from the right. because the right is hammering obama. the left has been reluctant to want to attack him in public. but you know what turning point happened last week, chris, on "saturday night live" when fred armson not lampooned obama, but this notion that he hasn't done a thing. that was a lampooning of the feelings that a lot of people on the left have. >> the people we saw softening in the nbc news "wall street journal" poll, this helps him with that. and the irony is that he was nominated two weeks after he took office. that's when the nominations closed for the nobel peace prize. but he did say in his gnawingal

address -- inaugural address, the outstretched hand, he has had talks with iran, with cuba. there is a great deal of promise for delivery. middle east peace talks stalemated, going nowhere. i mean, it's a very uneven thing. and on climate change, his u.n. speech was a huge disappointment to the people. >> let's go back to a couple of issues that seem to be driving the scorecard. first, afghanistan the you were in pakistan recently. this question -- is he right now? this is a fact question. is he right to reconsider his decision back in march to go in deeper? >> i think the president and his advisors want to make sure that they're getting this right. they feel that the country got very angry at george bush for seeming to rush to war in iraq, and they don't want to do that again, even though they were the ones who said they were going to get serious about afghanistan. they want to make sure they've got it right. i think there's probably more public support for that than we think. people know that lives are at

stake here. but getting the strategy right, i think, chris, something really important happened this week, which is that the president himself took the extreme option of walking away from afghanistan off the table. he essentially said the approach that my own vice president has been privately advancing, this idea of focusing on counterterrorism, using the predators to zap al qaeda, we're not going to do that. in other words -- >> well, i'm not so sure that's fair. i think bide epi's position, -- bide-'s position, in the pull out and hold, not to go back the other way. >> there was an argument that we should have a much more restrictive counterterrorism approach here, whether it's biden or somebody else. but essentially the president took that off the table. i think he wants to get it right and i have a feeling the public supports that. >> he took withdrawal off the table from afghanistan. chris: that's right. >> that's not what biden was saying. chris: a couple of areas. with the left, the people that make all the noise, cable and elsewhere, are all out there

complaining, kavetching, going crazy, hey, why don't we pull out of afghanistan. he promised. no. where did they get these promises from? he never promised that. he said that's where we have to fight, afghanistan. how can the left dictate this guy's scorecard? >> he didn't promise, for example, during the campaign, did you hear the word "public option" uttered from barack obama during the campaign? he did not utter those words. i think it's sort of an entitlement. we got you elected, you're our guy, you need to do what we want you to do. and what we see in the president's review is somebody who is acting as commander in chief. chris: how does this happen -- journalists here, you're all journalists -- how does the world get this picture that he promised something on the public option? he promised to get out of afghanistan? we all know from the record he said fight afghanistan and let's get health care done in a very general way. >> i was one of the people who pressed him as a candidate on public option and single pair and he refused to be pinned down

on that. he kept wiggling around it. hope and change was radiating all over the place and the perception went out that he was going to solve the problem. and the people on the left always said we need something serious. chris: my question for you, since you're on this. is he smart to play it loose so far, not nail down particulars, so that when he gets near signing a bill he can sign it? >> it's his style, you know. he does not want to define the goal too strictly, because he wants to leave wiggle room. >> why can't he tell us -- why is he for health care reform if he can't say what he wants? >> what is reform, chris? reform means to -- >> i think it's smart for him to keep his options open. you don't say i'm going to veto it if it does not include this. he has to leave running room for the compromising that's going to take place within the senate committees. chris: let's go back to the topic of the week -- performance versus promise. we asked the matthews meter, 12 of our regulars, is all of the

criticism from obama right now more perception or based on reality? eight say it's perception, four say it's reality. gloria, andrea and clarence, you two in the middle say it's perception, but gloria, closest to me, says it's reality. he hasn't measured up to expectation and promise. >> i think it's because he walked on water when he came into office and it's very difficult to live up to that. i think health care, as we were saying earlier, is the key to this, and i think in fact he may have hung out of the discussions a too long. he did come out for a public option. i think when he gets a health care bill -- because i believe he will get a health care bill, maybe new year's eve, but he will get it -- then the perceptions and the realities -- chris: so bottom line, if he does get a bill that he can sign, it will be a transformational first year. >> it will be. chris: it will be a transformation. >> he's banking on that. he's going to get a bill.

the only debate is whether it's enough or not. chris: will it be a transforming presidency or not? >> just getting a health care reform bill, that will will be transformational. look at history. chris: i agree with you. >> it will be a first step, but it will be transformational. >> there's a lot in the oven. chris: will he make history if he does this? >> it's a huge change in the american social landscape, but, yes, it will be an historic bill. he'll take credit for it and the country will be happy about it. chris: you guys still think he'll get a bill and it will be historic. >> yes. >> i'm not sure what it will be. >> extremely historic. [laughter] chris: now that we've got something serious settle, let's get to this. before we break, david letterman -- here's a topic. earlier this week he joked that now it might be tough for him to make hay out of sex scandals. >> let's look at the news. first of all, bill clinton said that -- no. [laughter] chris: so we thought we'd look back.

here's one of the hundreds of letterman goodies on bill clinton. >> now, yesterday hillary clinton said that the reason that her husband is being persecuted now is because of a national prejudice against the state of arkansas. [laughter] people don't like the state of arkansas. that's why her husband is in all this trouble. that shows you how dumb i am. i always thought it was because he was having sex with interns. i had no idea that -- no idea -- chris: the good old days. and there's this one on eliot spitzer. makes you wonder what letterman was thinking himself back then. >> maybe you don't know about this. the new scandal here in new york city just breaking a couple of hours ago. eliot spitzer, apparently involved in some kind of prostitution activities. this is why i always wear a fake mustache and pay cash. that's the only way to go. [applause] let me ask you a question -- do you think it's too soon to be

hitting on mrs. eliot spitzer? chris: we'll be checking that one out. letterman did all the usual jokes about south carolina governor mark sanford and his lover down in argentina. but in retrospect, here's a revealing comment. >> guess what we have here? the category tonight, governor mark sanford excuses. this is a guy from south carolina. and as always, it's less the infraction, it's less the violation than the judgment surrounding it. chris: hmm. when we come back we'll talk more about the letterman case, is it more about the charge of blackmail and less about what letterman did? are scandals not to scandalous these days? tell me something i don't know. be right back.

chris: welcome back. for the last 10 days the big david letterman focus has been

the charge of blackmail, more than his admission of affairs with miss own staffers. we were wonders, are scandals tougher to come by these days? how do americans think of late-night stars? is letterman in the entertainment world where affairs are definitely not so much big news? could you argue that he's more of a public figure, however? early on, johnny carson was hosting the likes of richard nixon and martin luther king from his desk. you may recall that john mccain actually did his formal presidential announcement on letterman's show. and three weeks ago letterman hosted president obama for a full hour. they talked policy. >> so men and women, american troops, coming out of iraq after a long, long difficult struggle, and now people are suggesting more and more american men and women going to afghanistan. what is that? >> well, first of all, i think that our troops are performing at an extraordinary level in both afghanistan and iraq. chris: gloria, what do we make

of this? we have the hardest time figuring out this topic. here he is an entertainer, but there he is behind the desk, almost officially interviewing presidential candidates, carson interviewed martin luther king. they play an almost surrogate role for us as citizens. explain their role and why they seem to be above the kind of scrutiny that politicians get. >> well, they're kinds of, as you say, citizen interviewers. politicians like to go on those shows because they think it gives them an opportunity to show another side of themselves, other than the official side of themselves, and they can talk to people in a different way. they can explain their policies, as the president was explaining afghanistan in a different way. chris: what's the standard for their behavior? >> i think the standard for their -- and the letter minneapolis story, first of all, i -- letterman story is evolving. he's not an elected official. but he makes fun of others who are now in his own predicament. people will look at him and ask some questions -- did he promote a toxic work environment, which is something that would matter

to women, i believe? and how much of a partnership crit is he? and does he make you laugh? chris: you're jumping in here. >> first, i'm terrified by the notion we would even consider judging the private lives of media figures by the same standard as elected officials. teas why i've avoided running for office, chris. but one thing about the way letterman handled this, he did it the way that we always taught politics the way to do it. get it out right away, look candid, humbled and determined and apologetic. he was late with the apology part, but he did get it out. chris: second night. >> and to his staff. i don't understand why he didn't do that earlier. >> and the wife. >> exactly. but he got them out. that gave him a lot of mileage. but this story isn't necessarily dead. chris: let me try something by you -- is it just hanky-panky, however you want to describe it. we define deviantcy downward all the time. things that used to be scandalous are now, oh, that's what goes on.

i know there's a concern about the workplace and that's going to be part of the story. we'll find out whether there was an environment there that was wrong, ok? but what about this whole general notion of, well, we're not shocked when they get their 50th divorce or larry king has a whole lot of them or all kinds of hanky-panky? have we lowered our standards? >> let me tell you, i got emails when this thing first broke from so many women who were arguing that there's a double standard here, that women who are in trouble or get themselves into trouble are judged differently, that men sort of get a pass on this. chris: give me an example. give me a parallel. >> well, have there been women who have ever had this -- we have higher standards. we expect better behavior for women in the workplace and women in positions of authority. look, he's in a position of authority. he is behind the anchor desk. he interviewed bill clinton the same week he interviewed barack obama. i mean, he is -- chris: i think that desk is a big deal. >> he's an entertainer and a

comedian. the problem for letterman is that his set is our living room, and these shows are intimate. they bring us in late at night and it just feels different. i think that he's going to have problems holding his audience. my prediction -- he'll go into rehab. he'll find some way to elaborately apologize. chris: i think part of late night is this risque, after-hours atmosphere and being a bit of a cad, which i think he is, and this will be repless dant in the news when we cover it. but i think he is a bit of a cad and people don't hold that against him at night. >> chris, he's the boss, ok? and that's his problem. he's the boss. chris: well said. >> we're not talking about the alleged extortion, we've talking about letterman's behavior, not what appears to be a possible crime. chris: i think blackmail is still a major crime and i think that guy is going away if he gets convicted. when we come back, scoops and predictions. tell me something i don't know. be right back.

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the difference a new sunroom could make in your life. call or log on today. chris: welcome back. gloria, tell me something i don't know. >> in the end, a republican from maine, olympia snow, will sign on to health care reform because it will not have a public option. it will have something that will lead to a public option, if the insurance companies don't behave. chris: great prediction. >> ernie duncan said back in

april that his one area where he was, quote, a complete failure was in reducing school violence during his tenure as the c.e.o. of chicago public schools. he's going to make it a priority now nationally. chris: nationally. >> secretly and quietly, hillary clinton and foreign ministers from the other leading states are going to talk about iran and begin really dealing and negotiating. not with iran, but coming up with russia and the others. >> same subject. they meet for another white house session. they think they will pin down a deal that will get 1500 kilos, essentially all of iran's enriched uranium out of the country. chris: there's a nobel peace prize being earned every day. the question coming up -- president obama's won the nobel peace prize. will he earn it? be right back.

>> welcome back. now the big question of the week -- barack obama has now won the nobel peace prize. will he earn it? gloria? >> yes, with the help of hillary clinton. >> yes, i think it will be iran, actually, before the rest of the meacht. >> not in the middle east, yes, in iran. >> how do you say yes in norwegian? ya! and again, i think it's iran. chris: thanks for a great round table, gloria borger, clarence page, and congratulations, mr. president.

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