>> this is is "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> i can hear you. >> the time for change has come. chris: keep on trucking. obama woke up when he saw that guy in the truck win ted kennedy's seat. look at him stay that way. he won on health care beating the odds and making history. s he iout there selling the thing letting voters know what they're getting. they're getting because they got him. is no enough? can the republicans win in november nailing obama for doing what they did? can they do the job by driving the good and tngryo the voting booths? do they need hope of their own? mad hatters tea party. the right couldn't stop health

care. -- no matter how hard it fought. ld iceboun enough regulars tong chae the conservative party? can the tea party heroes win in november? hi, i'm chris matthews. welcome to the show. kelly o'donnell covers capitol hill for nbc news. howard fineman is senior washington correspondent for "newsweek." gloria borger is a senior political analyst for cnn, and andrew sullivan is senior editor for "the atlantic." town halls and summits, first up, after summit, president obama celebrated the historic passage of comprehensive health care reform. but then it was back to work. he seems to guess that he has to sell health care to the middle class, the voters over the kitchen table in a way he never did his stimulus bill. here is obama back on the stump in iowa slamming republicans for saying health care reform will lead to armageddon. >> three months from now, six months from now, you're going to be looking around, sitting at the doctor's office reading through the old people's magazine.

you'll say hey, this is the same doctor, sam.plan it wasn't armageddon. they're actually going to run on a platform of repeal in november. you have been hearing that. and my attitude is go for it! chris: it's only just begun, howard. he's gotten the bill. making history. roosevelt and kennedy couldn't do it, l.b.j. couldn't do it, the clintons. he has done it. he has to take to the kitchen table and win the argument that it's a good thing for voters. >> yes. it's tricky because on the one hand, he wants to say, we just made history and that sounds great. this is a guy who loves history and loves making history. he can't talk about the history. he has got to talk about the kitchen table and he has got to say this is reform, but this is not revolution. and in many ways he is right. this was a big bill that is going to cover a lot more people, but it doesn't really fundamentally turn upside down the health care industry.

it makes big changes but doesn't turn it upside down. he is going to tell those people you're going to keep your doctor if you want it and people that don't have access can get it. chris: he is selling to the people who are going to vote, , older, white, middle-class people, not the 32 million people that are getting health care for the first time. >> right. he has got to say and not this way, this isn't as bad as you thought it was going to be for you. in fact, he has to say everything that you hated about the insurance companies, preexisting conditions, get to keep your kids on your health plan, the doughnut hole, all of that kind of stuff. he has to say this is going to affect you. unlike medicare and social security, when those things were passed, people knew immediately who it affected. you're over 65, this is going to be good for me ok, i know that. people don't know that about health care reform. they're scratching their heads and saying, ok, you got those 32 million people covered, about what about me.

>> that's a good point. part of what he is selling is that it will eventually save you money if you have insurance. that's going to take time to develop and it requires a few steps in between. that's going to take time to develop and it requires a few steps in-between. so some of the people that he is trying to convince are a little bit removed from the benefit. chris: why is the right so angry if this is not really going to hurt the average person and it's going to help a lot of working poor people? >> i have talked to a lot of congressmembers who say they always get angry response from voters. chris: death threats? >> i'm doing this in terms of degree. they're used to a certain degree of it. it popped and there are things that really worried them. it did go to vandalism and ugly things being said. what is happening, what is unleashing this? there could be some frustration because republicans believe they could derail the bill and becamincreasingly clear they could not. so some of their most to-the-right supporters were certainly energized. this is a tiny number of people. chris: you know, the republicans have come up with a slogan, it's called repeal and replace.

it seems a little namby-pamby to me. they're admitting, they have to do as good as the democrats by saying replace. >> you pass this bill, you'll be destroyed, mr. president. it sounded off to me. they were sending all of these mixed messages all the time. i think they are a little scared. i think that the appeal to the middle class is that you have health insurance, they won't be allowed to dump suddenly. they won't be able to ratchet up your premiums and find a preexisting condition and deny your coverage. there is security now for your health. no one will go bankrupt because of an illness. chris: what about the republican pitch they're going to repeal? it takes 67 votes to override a presidential veto. you talk about the 60 votes to beat a filibuster. when ty say repeal, has anybody checked that little constitution, the book they carry around? >> it's about the journey not the destination.

>> it's just primarily because after all, we know that this is almost identical to romney's health care bill in massachusetts. it was a centurist. chris: the guy who is leading in the polls for the republican nomination? >> they know this was not a radical bill. they made today political gain to destroy the president and they lost. no republican likes losing. >> the republicans are a tick behind here because obama was selling it as history-making. he is making the moral point. he has now passed that and he is down to the particulars, the ones that gloria was explaining and others. the republicans meanwhile are reviewing this as a historic philosophical struggle over the role of government and they're making themselves angry about it and getting tea party people excited. obama is going small ball. where he's saying -- look, here are the particular things that are going to help you. they're stuck with the philosophy. >> why are republicans talking about the economy right now? it's clear they think this is a winner for them and it could be, but the place where barack obama is still perhaps the most vulnerable is on the economy and jobs and why don't they remind people on that. chris: it's because they think they can win this big argument that socialism is coming,

armageddon is coming, and fear is the biggest -- >> if this bill is socialism, then warren buffett is karl marx. it's not sexism. -- it's not socialism. it's a big gigantic tweaking of a huge part of the economy. it's not socialism. if they call it that, they're going to lose. chris: both parties are looking at this differently. it seems like the democrats do feel good now. i was looking at nancy pelosi, the speaker, she looks really happy. you had a briefing with her this week. she looks totally different. the president looks debonair , buoyant, no sweat. i mean, he just looks different again. on the other hand, the republicans don't look too happy if you look at them. they're meeting in their offices with pictures of bob bowl and bob taft on the wall. and they don't seem too happy and yet one's right and one's wrong. >> well, accomplishment will do a lot for how tired how they

will feel. the democrats have a shot of adrenaline and they are trying to maximize this. for republicans, when you talk to them, it's a much longer argument and that's going to be tough to sustain. they really believe and repeatedly tell me on the hill their voters are concerned. their voters don't like the taxes. they don't like the individual mandate. that is a very potent word -- chris: which tells young healthy people, you got to enroll. >> you must do it and that the federal government is requiring you to. that is also -- chris: like a driver has to get car insurance. >> except they would say that's a privilege to drive. that's the distinction. this is not an argument that got a lot of play in conservative circles. that really gets them jazzed up. chris: people that live anywhere but downtown new york maybe, driving a car is not a privilege, it's a necessity. let's put to the matthews meter. will health care be more of a winning issue this fall for democrats or for republicans? what looks like republicans have a slight edge here. our poll has it 7-5. they say the g.o.p. has the winning advantage here.

glo, you're with the seven? >> yeah. look, i think this is a good issue for republicans, although i think they should talk about the economy. chris: you think it's a plus for republicans? you sound hesitant here. >> people don't trust government, number one. think back to 1994 when the democrats passed the crime bill gun control. people didn't -- they thought why are you taking away my guns? why are you mandating me to buy health insurance? if you don't trust the government and this energizes their voters to come out in a midterm election and midterm elections are all about energizing your base to come out. should they talk about the economy, absolutely. chris: do you think it's good for the d's? >> one thing you note that 83% of hispanics wanted health care reform passed. if the republicans run a repeal, obama can say look what they're going to try to take away from you. he is not going to make the

argument that he will veto. he will be able to flush out what is your plan, what do you want to do? they don't have a plan. chris: they say replace, but they can't say what with. >> they can't put the pre-existing conditions -- chris: can barack obama, given all that we know now in march, marching toward november, can he cut his losses with his big mo, can he cut down those losses and keep the losses in the house below 25 seats? in the senate, around five, that's what the pros would say. can he do that? >> if you look at history, that is one of the things going against him and the degree of the energized voter, it seems to be more intense among conservatives. that's hard to find ag ainst. i think he can blunt it but not prevent it. chris: can he cut his losses down to a reasonable level in -- and hold both houses? >> i think he can. they're going to lose those democrats in those red districts. they're going to lose all of them. it doesn't add up to 30 in the house. chris: they can still hold the house. >> yeah, they'll still hold the

house. >> they're going to lose a whole bunch of seats. chris: will they hold the house and the senate? >> they will. it may be good for barack obama in the long term. chris: to be tighter there. does the president cut the losses? >> absolutely. his main problem for the people that said if he walked on water, he has been bloodied. he has sunk, he got back up. he's trudging on. people like that narrative. a persevering persistent guy. who's been knocked around a bit. ris: isn't it weird that massachusetts, ted kennedy's seat, the ghost of ted kennedy in a strange way came back here and saved the democrats' bill and saved ted kennedy's dream, health care for all americans. >> and made people realize that obama is not a magician. he is actually a very persistent politician. chris: write that in a column. again, and again and again. >> you have to be careoul abt not talking about the history. that puts them back on the walking on water category.

chris: thank you, howard for the new testament reference. if you watched the health care bill signing ceremony this week, you probably caught this little sugar plum courtesy of vice president joe biden. >> this is a big [bleep] deal! chris: did you notice obama's reaction there. he is used to joe's guy talk. after a year together, they know each so well, they're almost like the odd couple, felix and oscar. think at it. one is on point in his speeches, delivering his words with precision and control, at neat as a pin. the other is sloppy throwing words around like dirty socks. one is a french poodle, one is a slobbering golden retriever. but biden helps obama seem like a regular guy at least one who's comfortable like a regular guy. then going for burgers. they buddied at a beer summit. they watch b-ball together. you wonder if they had a poker night like the original oscar and felix in that movie classic.

>> and we have a nice, warm sandwich. -- fb vinny. >> oh, gee, it smells good. >> what is it? >> bacon, lettuce and tomato on pumpernickel. >> you just made it? >> you put in toast and cooked bacon just for me? >> if you don't like it, i'll make meatloaf, it takes five minutes. >> eat over the dish, i just vacuumed the rug. >> it's good. hey, oscar what did you want? >> some eggs and some petit fours. >> double gin and tonic. who turned off the dehumidifier? >> what? >> fellows i asked you don't play where this thing. i'm trying to get some of the grime out of the air. gee whiz. chris: there's barack obama cleaning up after joe biden when we come back, the tea party activists couldn't kill heale, car t butcohey thuld knock out a loof regular republicans and slam the g.o.p. to the far right. "scoops and predictions" from these top reporters. we'll be right back.

chris:elcome back. it's been tea time in america. these overcalf nated mob weren't able to throw health care. acording to a new poll, 3/4 of tea partiers say they lean republican. and 77% say they voted for john mccain in 2008. but now mccain is one of the scouts they most want. so what's a regular republican to do? it's hardly a new question for the people in the rifplgte listen to how future conservity icon ronald reagan deathly answered a question about support from the right, john bird society during his 1966 campaign for californi governor. >> i'm not going to deal with somebody who's voted for me.

i haven't bought his. >> do you believe there is a place for john birch society members? >> think there's a place in any political party for anyone who feels that he can conscientiously support the party. chris: he comes across angry. you and i remember the john birch society said that president eisenhower was a communist. they were that far right. >> it was interesting because the way reagan phrased that was very clever in which he said -- if they're coming aboard to support my philosophy and my party's philosophy then i can accept their support. he's not writing them out of the picture. but he's saying, i'll take them if they agree with me. croip but what about if your john mccain. what do you do? how do you get them off your back?

>> he's appealing to them as fasts he a can. he's gone so far to the right in his btle against j.d. wentworth. >> you could have said he was a rhino. he's a moderate republican. he had to leave the party. charlie crist had to live just to be legitimate. >> the primary campaign for these republicans is really excruciating. they don't want to alienate any potential voter. at the same time how do they navigate some of these more intense feelings that aren't so politically helpful. what i hear all the time is if they can get through the primary, then they can try to be more of the accomplishment type of the republican that they feel for comfortable being. many who hold office don't like prthe ocess or the primaries. chris: that means nobody cuts a deal with any deal. so lindsay graham is a cob

serve active. any time he does things on immigration, he gets attacked. >> ronald reagan if you like me and what i stand for, vote for me. he wasn't going out there and trying to figure out what they want and then stand for it. and that's the difference. >> it's what i would call the industrial ideological conference. the fox network. that's what we can call it. that could possibly say no to glenn beck. chris: if there were no tea party crowd, would that be better for the republican party or is the tea party a plus for them in november? >> they need the energy. they don't want to brand-new "tea party." chris: it's a plus? >> a net negative. if the tea partiers continue to project the image they're

protecting, it's a net negative. >> i think it looks positive now but i'm going to agree with howard. in the end it's going to backfire on republicans. it could energize democrats. >> after 1997, they got tagged as a nasty party. and they are still trying to get from under that 13 years later. chris when we come back scoops and predictions. chris when we come back scoops and predictions. tell me something i >> if your home runs out of room before you run out of family, you might need a sunroom. if the only place in your home you can find peace and quiet and relax is the bathroom, you might need a sunroom.

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chris: kelly, tell me something i don't know. >> arkansas democrats are going to get a lot of attention. not talking about clintons. blanch, she is facing a primary challenge from her democratic governor. she is having a very hard time. chris: could that guy ever win a general? >> that's harder to say. but there is momentum for him. >> you mentioned that gloria and i had been at this briefing with nancy pelosi. we were impressed with the behind the scenes confidence of nancy pelosi even though the republicans were going to use her as a poster child. you're going to see more of nancy pelosi in the weeks and months ahead. she's decided she's an asset. and other democrats are going to decide the same thing. >> she didn't care about all the attacks of her.

i've got something to say about joe biden, and talking about him being goofy and off message. i was talking to someone at the white house, he said, he was our most on target messengers we had. health care flipped three of them from no to s. chris: he's not goofy. he's a smart guy. he has fun. >> the pope moral authority is over. i mean he has personally now have been shown to enable benedict 16. s:chri what happens? >> i don't know what happens. but the leity of the show cannot give moral authority to this guy. chris: the big question this week, obama met behind closed doors with the prime minister of israel. be right back.

chs:ri welcome back. this week presidentma oba and israeli primeis minter benjamin netanyahu held night meetings. obama believes israel's

restraint can bring a solution. kelly? >> yes. so he can tell the arab world that he's doing it so he can cut deals to fence in iran. >> i totally agree that and maybe as you were suggesting, when we were chatting that maybe he's waiting if netanyahu to go. chris: it's all part of a plan to get the iranians. >> yes. and it's the next follow-up to the cairo speech. this goes back a year. netanyahu poked him in the eye and got away with it. and now revenge is a best dish served cold. chris: an italian