tv Wall Street Journal Rpt. NBC May 8, 2011 2:30am-3:00am EDT
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for our show today, thank you for joining us, we hope you enjoyed your stay in wine country and we'll see you again next time. welcome to "the wall street journal report," and happy mother's day. i'm maria bartiromo. a strong jobs report. commodities plunge. oil tanks. silver sinks. what does it mean to your portfolio? i'm talk to the bond king, bill gross. and he is the eighth richest man in the world, but he is gunning to be number one. >> it's just a question of time, i'm sorry. >> my conversation with brazilian billionaire eike batista. and my discussion with vera wang. how to marry mainstream and high fashion, keeping blushing brides beaming and cash registers ringing. "the wall street journal report" begins right now. >> this is america's number one
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financial news program, "the wall street journal report." now maria bartiromo. >> here is a look at what is making news as we head into a new week on wall street. the u.s. economy added more jobs last month, more than at any time in the past 11 years. and all of them were in the private sector, which showed the best gains in five years. nonfarm payrolls rose by 244,000 in april, strongly surpassing analysts' expectations. the unemployment rate rose to 9%, likely because more people were looking for work. it was the third straight month of more than 200,000 job gains. well, the air is coming out of the commodities trade. the crb index dropped sharply during the week. oil tumbling below $100 a barrel for the first time since march. silver falling big-time, in part because tighter margin requirements were instituted. the markets had a weak start or to the month of may. the dow snapped a four-day winning streak on monday, and
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fell more during the week as the commodities tumbled. the markets rebounded, though, on friday. with the end of earnings season, and so far with more than 84% of companies reporting, 2/3 have beaten analysts' expectations, while 20% have come in below estimates. same store sales were up nearly 9% in the month of april, one of the biggest increases in the last two years. that too topped analysts' expectations of 8.2%. auto sales were strong in april as well. ford up 16%. gm up 27%. chrysler saw sales rise 22%. toyota, though, down by 2%. bill gross is founder and co-chief investment officer of pimco. he oversees the largest bond fund in the world, pimco's total return fund. and he has had some pretty strong words recently about the debt in the u.s. bill joins me now to talk more about it. bill, great to see you. thanks for joining us. >> thank you, maria. >> the economy creating 244,000 new jobs last month, better than expectations. how would you characterize it?
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the unemployment rate at 9%. what does this tell us about where we are in the jobs market? >> well, it was a good report, maria, and some positive revisions for prior months. you know, i suspect we're going to see a few more good months of job growth. but it's probably not enough to reduce that unemployment rate. i mean our 9% unemployment rate is the highest t in t g-7 countries aside from france. and it has -- and suggests significant structural problems in housing and retail that probably aren't going to go away. so i would think even a 200,000 plus jobs number in months going forward would fail to reduce that unemployment rate significantly. thinking week the other big story, a huge sell-off in commodities. that global story you're talking about has been among the reasons that commodities had been rising over the last several years, although this week we saw silver plummet. we saw oil come down pretty substantially. so two questions. why do you think this is
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happening? what affect does it have on investors who may not own commodities in their profile? >> i think that global demand will continue. but there is no doubt that there was a speculative element in many of these markets over gold and even oil. i mean government policymakers, maria, prefer good as opposed to bad inflation. that is inflation welcomed as the statement but it leaks into the consumer price indexes and consumer prices. and what authorities did this week was to ko, basically knock out the most vulnerable of commodities, silver, by increasing margin requirements five times. and basically, send a signal to speculators that they should not speculate in silver, gold, or oil but in the preferreded area, which is really common stock. so i think it was very much of a common stock positive and a commodity negative. >> bill, let me move on to the debt in this country. of course we know that the country has a debt of $14.3 trillion.
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we're having an unprecedented conversation about whether or not to raise that debt ceiling. congress has yet to raise it, and there has been no action on reducing america's deficit so far in a substantial way, even though it's now part of the national conversation, even the international conversation. are you at all optimistic that either of these issues are being addressed? >> not terribly optimistic, maria. you know, we have extended the debt ceiling limit to august, and that's a favorable pause i suppose. and we do expect the debt ceiling to be increased. but, you know, basically progress in terms of reducing the deficit will be limited to election jargon, and ultimately, the election in 2012 may, and i say may, allow us to reduce the deficit either in the form of higher taxes, which would be democratic or in the form of lower spending, which would be the republican side.
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we'll see which one wins. but in the meantime, i think deficits of 7, 8, 9% of gdp are going to be with us. >> and what are the implications of that? >> well, the implications are that it basically is a higher debt level and higher deficits ultimately slow down an economy. >> bill, let's talk about the fed. we're nearing the point where the federal reserve has indicated it will start the program of buying treasury bonds, the so-called qe2 program. are you expecting the fed to stop this in june? will there be another qe3 program? what kind of an impact are you expecting this to have? >> i think it's almost certain they stop in june. they have suggested, of course, maria, that they will continue to reinvest the interest from what they hold at the moment and the prepayments from mortgages in their portfolio which is about a trillion and a quarter type of portfolio. so they'll be reinvesting about $300 billion at an annualized rate. so it's really qe-2 1/2.
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i suspect going forward the important element to focus on in terms of the fed is how long they continue to extend the period of time at which they hold policy rates at 25 basis points. that really is the key benchmark for investors if they continue to keep it there for the next 6 to 12 months, then it's a relatively all clear sign for borrowing and for economic growth going forward. >> bill, you've gotten rid of all your u.s. government-related holdings from the total return fund, the world's largest bund. are you looking to emerging market debt right now? what kind of risk does that carry? what countries are you looking to invest in? >> we are. emerging markets as well as over sovereign markets. obviously there is an element of risk there. but some countries such as brazil, for instance, has a much more pristine balance sheet, much lower debt than the united states. same example in mexico, by the way. so some of these emerging countries have emerged and they hold substantial reserves. the emerging markets themselves
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hold $3.0 trillion worth of reserves where as in prior years, the past five, ten, 15 years, it was a negative situation. so emerging markets have really emerged. and they are the wealth holders at the moment, where as developed countries such as the united states are in hock to them. >> all right. we'll leave it there. bill, good to have you on the program. thank you so much. we appreciate it. my thanks to bill gross. up next on the "wall street journal report," speaking of brazil, we'll speak with the richest man in brazil. he says he wants to be the richest man in the world. commodities king eike batista tells me his plans for topping the charts. and america's first name in bridal designers, vera wang. on wedding designers from couture to the mall. as we take a break, we take a look at how the stock market ended the week.
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any country or company that is dependent on exporting to china, particularly if the commodity area, particularly in construction is going to be hard-hit. we mention that australia will be at risk. canada will be at risk, and brazil will be at risk. >> noted short seller and hedge fund manager jim hanos telling me what could burst the commodity prices. one man who is betting big on natural resources is brazilian mining billionaire eike batista. batista is worth more than $30 million. he is the founder of five commodities countries and is the eighth richest man in the world. he told me that brazil's boom could take him all the way to the top. >> brazil is a country of 220 peop million people. we're a melting pot of people. 100 million of these have grown into the middle class. 35 million alone during lula's presidency. so from 65 million to 100 million brazilians.
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we're foreseeing that we'll be able to bring another 60 million into the middle class by 2020. business is really a gigantic driver because brazil has moved from 50 billion barrels of oil reserves to 100. so we move from the 16th position, a very low position into literally the third, fourth position in terms of oil reserve in the world, and it's probably bigger. >> let me ask you more about that, because your company was helping to produce this huge oil find on the offshore of brazil. >> yes. >> how big of an opportunity is this? someone said to me the other day they believe brazil will eventually become move from being an oil importer to being an oil exporter and totally self-sufficient. >> yes. we are self-sufficient today. so we produce around two million barrels a day. brazil will grow from two million to six million barrels by 2020. our company approximately 1.4 million.
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petrobras another 2 million and the foreign companies 600 million barrels a day. if you come today saudi arabia is producing around ten million barrels. with six million we would be hovering between positions second and third. >> everyone is talking about there is so much shale in the world today. doesn't that mean that oil prices should be a lot lower if there is so much shale? >> in the last 50 years, oil -- energy discoveries have doubled only while the consumption for people who have just entered the consumer life, okay, for technology users of people who were not using an electricity or had a car or vehicle to move around increased by 80 times per capita. and discoveries have only doubles. if you look at micronumbers, the world car fleet is today around 750 million cars. it's going to two billion cars in the next 15 years. yet many of them are going to be electric and hybrid. but most of them not.
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so there still needs the gasoline. >> one of the ways you have been so successful, of course, is you're a low cost producer. talk to us about this. you're producing oil at $18 a barrel? >> yes. the difference between us is really being in the shallow waters of brazil. so shallow waters implies low cost production, which is spectacular. we have -- if oil is today at $120, $18 is an 85% margin. we call it idiot proof assets. >> now you have president dilma, and she is saying hey, the real has gotten out of control. it's soaring in value. inflation is a major concern. >> yes. >> so they're instituting policies that are actually taxing foreign capital, taxing short-term money, so-called hot money. do you worry that that is going to limit the amount of new money coming in? >> no. listen, thanks god we have dilma running our country today. president lula's legacy was to
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keep inflation under control, because during his eight years, the brazilian worker had 40% increase in his purchase power. inflation control was crucial, because before, i know inflation eroded the purchase power of the brazilian worker. so she will preserve this legacy. >> let me ask you about security, eike, because this is one issue people are talking about in brazil as still being very challenging, crime and security. where are we on that front in brazil? >> when president lula came into power in 2002, we had 12% unemployment. brazil is running 6.2 unemployment there is a democratic change in that security area. and rio has tackled this with the occupation of the fleet with the slums. we've seen that the rights and the execution is right. >> you said i think it was the
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last time we spoke when you were in new york, you said look, warren buffett, carlos, they better be looking behind them because i'm on my way there becoming the richest person in the world. do you still feel that way? >> i have created five companies that have in them embedded resources worth $2 trillion. okay? at very low cost to produce it. so it's just a question of time. i'm sorry. so i don't know if i am going to pass him on the right side or the left, but it's going to happen. >> my thanks to eike batista. up next on the "wall street journal report," she has designed clothes for the red carpet, white weddings, and now maybe your big day. vera wang on bringing accessible price tags to the bridal
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from the red carpet to the local kohl's department store, vera wang is a brand with name recognition among fashionistas and middle class consumers all over. with a new collection exclusively at david's bridal, just in time for wedding season, designer vera wang joins me now. it's so wonderful to have you on the program. >> thank you, maria. i'm so thrilled to be here. >> good to see you. you have designed so much for high profile brides, chelsea clinton, ivanka trump. how does it differ from what you have done in the past?
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>> well, i think certainly when i started the kohl's line, simply vera wang at kohl's, it's all about a lifestyle. it's about women who can dress in sort of the way i dress every day of my life, which is very layered. i think wonderful pieces that you can mix, dress up and dress down. for david's, that's a whole other issue. that's the day of every woman's life that she dreams about. and i think what i really was hoping for was to bring the same level of design integrity and style and quality to women who could not afford to wear my collection dresses, which in the high-end of fashion is sort of like being in dream land. i mean you look at dresses at $10,000 or $8,000, everyone says well that's really great. and i used to just say well how many people can possibly buy a dress that costs that much money. >> right. >> and we put so much effort into our work. the deal with david's was the
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only way i thought was responsible, that they would respect me enough to be able to partner with me to bring that level of design and taste not to the masses, but out further. broaden our approach. >> and what you seeing? how is it going? >> it's been a really wonderful partnership thus far. they really understand what i'm trying to achieve. they encourage me. it's just a great supportive endeavor together. >> it's interesting to see this trend taking place right now of fashion companies getting into bridal. >> yes. >> i guess they're figuring out what you knew many years ago, but you've got other high-end designers doing it as well as actually mall stores like j. crew, anne taylor. what do you make of that? what is happening in the business? >> i think that democratization of fashion is the first thing. i think perhaps the fact that many weddings are not as formal as they used to be is very much of a part of that trend. i think what we do is really on a very different level, while we
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offer dresses that are very simple and very elegant and very modern, we're also able to bring the technique and the work that we've done for nearly two decades in bridal and translate that at david's bridal at an incredible price point. i mean we start around $600. and i think we max out around 1200. that's -- really for the amount of work and the amount of design, amount of quality, that's an incredible price. >> talk to us about the kohl's relationship you. mentioned that a minute ago. you've got kohl's stores, other licenses with bloomingdale's, serta mattresses. >> yes. >> tell me about balancing this creative pursuit along with seeing such a diverse brand and so many products with these different licensing. >> well, it's incredibly challenging, there is no question about it. in some cases the design staff is on the other side and not on my team. and some cases it's my team that
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oversees the design. so it really depends on which deal we're talking about. the fragrance with cody is certainly something i work with cody hand in hand to develop the concept of our fragrance and who the star will be in it and all the aesthetics. but in other cases, such as wedgewood, very much there is a designer in place that used to work for me. and she is the one that works with me closely, but she has the technical expertise to constantly push that line forward also. >> the average cost of a wedding in the united states last year around $24,000. that was the average. and it's up 20% from '09. >> wow! >> yeah. what do brides and grooms' spending choices say about the broader economy do you think? are they making choices, and does that illustrate where we are in this new normal, if you will? >> i'm going to take a little chance and say that i think we're ahead. based on my business. i know that after september 11th, everyone said to me well you must be great because
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weddings are everything-proof. and i said no, they're not really terrorist-proof or economy-proof. but i have to say we're seeing some girls at david's buy two dresses of mine, one for the party and one for the wedding, because they're expecting to spend more perhaps on vera wang. >> right. >> and then on the collection end, we never really had a better year. so if i can judge by that, we're beginning to see i would say you would know better than i, but a bit of a turnaround in our little sector. >> best of luck. thanks for being on the program. >> thanks for having me. >> for more on vera wang go, to our website, wsjr.cnbc.com. take a short break, and then up next on "the wall street journal report," we'll take a look at the news this upcoming week that will have an impact on your money. and then who wants to be a millionaire? do you? news that your chances of striking it rich may be on the up. back in a moment.
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you can find my blog at investoragenda.cnbc.com. i hope you will check it out. now the stories in the week ahead that may move the markets and impact your money this week. wednesday we'll find out if the u.s. is importing or exporting more goods with the trade balance report out. on thursday the total month of sales for april will be released as well as the producer price index. the ppi tracks inflation at the wholesale level. on friday the consumer price index, the broadest measure of inflation on consumer products. finally, it isn't all bad news. global wealth is going up. in fact, millionaires the world
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over will be twice as rich by 2020. accounting for some $202 trillion in wealth. and the total number of millionaire households in the united states expected to double by 2020. the study says wealth managers better understand the post crisis environment and can strategize for success accordingly. that will do it for us today. thank you so much for joining us. my guest next week charles schwab, chief investment strategist, liz ann sonders. each week keep it rite here where wall street meets main street. have a great week, everybody. i'll see you again next weekend.
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