stay in wine country, and we'll see you again next time. for more information about today's show, log on to our website inwinecountry.com. welcome to the "wall street journal report." i'm maria bartiromo. my guest jim rogers. he says, if he can't drop it on his foot, he won't buy it. he has a warning. >> the problem of too much debt is not solved by more debt. >> what about europe's debt? a new deal to save the euro, what was said, what it means to the u.s. would you believe a flying fish? the hot new trend for toys this holiday season from a man who knows. i'll talk to the ceo of toys r us. the "wall street journal report" starts right now. >> this is america's number one financial news program, the w l "wall street journal report." now, maria bartiromo.

>> here's what's making news as we head into a new week on wall street. it appears a broad agreement for a new fiscal deal in the eurozone is taking shape. leaders on friday said they will agree to a plan with stricter rules in the united states. that would punish countries whose debts are too large. it would also boost the power of the funds hit with the debt cris crisis. britain is against the plan. it says its new rules will threaten britain's financial services industry. the markets broke a modest three-day rally on thursday, dropping sharply on the eu's ability to bail itself out. but the market rebounded on friday. a chastened and humbled john corsan testified before the committee. cor sarks n defended the firm's adjustments, suggested attrition and said he has no idea where 1

toi1$.2 billion of investor mon has gone. >> i simply.net kny don't know e money went or where the chief concerns are today. i had overall responsibility for the firm. >> well, it may not be rain nor sleet that slows the post office soon, but it's on budget issues. the u.s. postal service pushes ahead with massive cuts that will eliminate next-day delivery beginning next spring. they will shave another $3 billion in expenses. professor of harvard university, co-author of the book "this time is different" which correctly predicted the economy after 2008, and he is director of the international monetary fund. he is one of the smartest guys in the room when it comes to understanding the global and national economy, and he joins me now with more. ken, good to have you on the

program. thanks for joining us. >> thank you, maria, for having me. >> on friday we saw a summit of eu leaders. europe is the big focus that everyone is talking about. you think the actions that they took are enough to save the euro? is this a beginning of a solution or not? what do you make of what happened this week in urt othe eurozone? >> maria, i could be really cynical and say once again they said ten days to save uthe euro five days to save the euro, then they get there and do something just enough to kick the can down the road. i think a little bit happened along the way. i don't know how cheered we should be. the germans dropped their insistence on having the bondholders drop their share of the losses. i don't know how smart it was, but it's a move. even though the banks went in and pulled out and went halfway back in gave more of an

impression that they are going to come along and buy more of this junk debt, basically print money. not a permanent solution, a little like a banana republic, but they are moving toward something. the treaty is not happening. a big change nuthe eurozone is t happening. frankly, if i were the eurozone, i would want santa claus to put a new constitution in my stocking this christmas, but i don't think it's going to happen. >> also the european central bank, lower interest rates this week by half a percent. is this going to be a slow slog in europe and the main concern that the u.s. has in terms of the impact on the economy here? >> well, it's a huge concern, maria, but i do think we're creeping towards a solution, and that's a really ugly solution that i don't know if the germans should be happy with. and that's that the european central bank, even though they haven't wholeheartedly said they're going to do it, i do think it's pretty darn clear that that's the end game here, that they're going to end up

absorbing a lot of the debt and maybe a lot of the losses. for a year or two, that will actually calm things down. then, of course, they've got to figure out what do they do when people start realizing inflation is going to be higher. they've been printing money, how are they going to pay for this? but i do think actually with all this, there's been progress, though, not necessarily in a direction i would have advocated. >> so do you think the euro stays together? are you worried that the euro breaks apart, or would that be too expensive for germany? what's your take? >> i find hard to believe that all the countries currently in it will still be in it in a few years. >> so greece gets pushed out, in other words? >> greece is a certainty, i think. portugal is a likelihood, and even some of the star performers like ireland, they have external debt ten times income. they're in a difficult situation. but the question, the big question is where will the firewall be? i think germany is going to keep

france. france wants to keep italy. i think they will keep italy. that question mark still remains, but i think we've moved closer to saying they are going to keep the big countries. the european central bank will bail them out even though there's a lot of coded language. it's very hard to tell exactly what they mean, but that looks like the direction it's going. >> are you worried all of this is having an impact on the united states? what's your take on the u.s. banks and the exposure it's having in europe? >> i think this has a huge effect in the u.s. if you took europe off the table, we might be growing a percent faster, a percent and a half faster. maybe not gangbusters, but we would be having a healthier recovery. each one of these meetings comes, and even though they don't do that much, the markets do cheer up. they rally because it didn't end, the world didn't end. they're scared that somebody is going to do something crazy. if they really did, if the euro

really blew up, i mean, i can't overstate how horrible it would be. i think, really, some of our biggest banks could fail, europe's 25% of the global economy. you can go into hyperbole. i don't think that would happen, but it would be catastrophic, just like lehman was for them. >> we did have a smattering of economic news, right? were you encouraged by the unemployment rate going down last week? >> certainly the summer had some worse numbers and it is stabilized, and the u.s. looks like they're on a normal post-financial crisis recovery. still, as carmen rinehardt and i guessed it would be. it's risky. you would like to be growing faster if europe had a problem. i don't see us growing like gangbusters. we still have all this debt,

rising federal debt, gridlock in washington, a lot of things to worry about. at the same time, even in this situation, we are sputtering along, and we're not about to collapse, which, i think, is a good thing right now. >> the markets, obviously, have been very volatile. what's your expectation for the markets and the economy going into 2012? >> i think for the macroeconomy, my guess is we grow a bit below normal. europe grows below normal. china seems to be tightening. global economy growth will be somewhat below normal. the markets, really a lot surrounds on whether this uncertainty could be pulled out. i think if you resolve the euro situation, it would help enormously. it's a small risk of things going really badly and the markets have seen it recently. and they're scared, and you're getting this constant risk on, risk off, and i think we're going to see more of that in 2012 until the europeans hit a more stable solution. maybe they will with the

european central bank holding its nose and buying all this debt that it said it would never do. >> ken, great to have you on the program. thanks so much for your great analysis, as always. >> thanks, marimaria. >> ken rogoff. the heat on high-rising commodities and his thoughts on what's going wrong in the global economy. checking in with one of santa's big helpers in ret tail industry. the hottest toys this holiday. what's impacting your kids this season. we take a break as we look at the stock market end of the week. worried about retirement. forty years ago, he wasn't he'd yet to hear of mutual funds, iras, or annuities. back then, he had something more important to do. he wasn't focused on his future but fortunately, somebody else was.

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to moving halfway around the world to predicting the great depression. jim rogers has never been shy about speaking his mind. today he told me about the state of the global economy. just how bad does jim rogers think it is out there? >> 2002 we had a problem. 2008 was worse because the debt was higher. 2013, or whenever the next one is, will be worse still because of the debt. the debt is going through the roof. it's going to get worse and worse. we're shooting all our bullets. we're wasting money. >> this is the largest in our nation. you think the u.s. is a bigger problem than europe right now. >> yes, u.s. as a whole is the largest in-debt nation in the world. in europe, the whole thing is not a big debt problem, they've got individual countries, ireland, greece, et cetera, that are bankrupt, but no, they're in much better shape than we are. they're not in good shape, but they're in better shape than we are. >> you own dollars because you

think it's more momentum right now? >> the dollar is beaten down a lot, and as turmoil occurs around the world, some people will look to the dollar. the dollar is not a safe haven, as far as i'm concerned, but i do own the dollar because people will go there. maria, i own some euros too, now, because they were beaten down but they feel better. be very careful. >> what do you want to do as far as strategy here? how do you invest in such an environment? you say you're not doing anything in the u.s. >> i'm sure technology stocks in the u.s. i'm losing money -- not losing money today, but i'm short an emerging market, i'm short european stock and i'm long economy. because if the economy gets better, i'll make a lot in economy, i own the japanese yen, the swiss franc, there are

plenty of ways to protect yourself. and when things don't get better, they will print a lot more money. and when they print money, you have to own silver, you have to own a lot of things if you're going to survive. >> you've already made a lot of money in commodities. amazing how you made this call so long ago. here we have a godebt of $17 million. >> it's been up 11 years in a row. it would not surprise me at all if gold didn't continue to rest and consolidate for a while. it's been consolidating for over three months. i hope it continues to consolidate, i hope it goes down. >> what about silver? you said you want to own silver. you want to put silver to work right here? >> i'm not buying anything right now, but if i had to buy gold or silver today, i would buy silver because silver is more depressed, that's all. i hope gold and silver continue

to rest and consolidate so i can buy more. >> here we have oil at $100 a barrel. when do you expect the price of oil to become a problem for the economy? >> the economy invests more and more and more. oil ten years ago, if you said oil was at 100, we would all go home. but now people are adjusting. it's going to continue to go higher, it's going to have an effect, but remember, maria, some people will suffer. but the people who produce oil are going to boom as the price of oil goes higher. the people that produce coal, the people who produce uranium, a lot of people will boom as the oil price goes higher. >> real quick because we're on commodities. john forsythe will be speaking to a number of committees. what's your take on that? >> i can't really say because i'll go to jail. it's totally outrageous what happened. the first thing you learn when you go into the commodities is

segregated accounts is a sacred thing. you can find loopholes if you want to, but that's the last thing you're supposed to touch. i don't see how you can avoid jail. now, what do i know? you're innocent until proven guilty in america, but that's very bad for all of us. >> my thanks to jim rogers. up next on the "wall street journal report," we're making a list and checking it twice. the ceo of the nation's largest toy store shows me the hot-selling gifts that make playtime big business.

i know the name of eight princesses. i'm an expert on softball. and tea parties. i'll have more awkward conversations than i'm equipped for because i'm raising two girls on my own. i'll worry about the economy more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. massmutual is owned by our policyholders so they matter most to us. massmutual. we'll help you get there.

retailers are not playing around when it comes to attracting consumer attention this season, especially in the toy sector. as much value-minded parents seek to fulfill christmas lists. here with us is ceo gary storch, leader of the country's largest retailer. gary, glad to have you on the program. >> hello. >> so the store opened at 9:00 p.m. thanksgiving evening. how did that work out for you? >> people love it. they love the idea at being able to shop at a relatively normal hour rather than in the milgd of the -- middle of the night, and the line stretched around the block. >> are you going to do it next year? >> we'll have to decide when the time comes. >> here we're always talking

about this gloom and doom, and the proof is there was pent-up demand after, i guess, some soft years. are you motivated to match that interest with great deals? how would characterize that weekend? >> what we've seen is hot deals and hot products sell very well. if you have both of them together, you have a black friday-like event. that's what we're doing the rest of the season. that's what the customer wants. we have a big sale this week at our lowest prices ever, and we're going to keep doing it all the way till christmas. >> you brought some toys for us today. tell us what's selling and what you think are the hot products of the holiday. >> we have a flying shark and we have a flying clown fish based upon your predilection. and they repel themselves by flapping their tails in the air, and the effect is just unbelievable. >> so that's a remote-control operated -- >> that's right. >> what's the price of that? >> $44.99.

. you have to get the helium thing. it's very inexpensive. >> and you have dolls, too. >> we have lopsy loopsy where you can play with her hair. we have her little sister, too. >> this is her sister, la la lo lo loopsy. >> there's a whole bunch of characters and little girls want to collect them. >> what else do you have? >> we have trash packs. they're garbage in garbage cans. you can collect hundreds of them. there is a truck that comes with it, and you can -- vehicles are great with boys, too, but the most important thing is that they can pretend they smell even though they do not actually smell, they're just gross. >> this is the little guy that lives in the trash can and the trash can lives in the truck. >> absolutely. >> love that. >> for girls we have another

collectible, which is called xia-xia, and these are little hermit crabs. they're motorized and they come in a beautiful little package. it's a girls' collectible. kind of the equivalent of the trash can for the boys. >> uglydolls. what is this? >> boys and girls love collecting these. it's one of the few dolls i've seen that attract both genders neutral neutrally. they're soft, and what's really cool is i think of the boys and girls of anime characters, something you might draw. >> how cute. how much are uglydolls? >> 15 to $20, depending on the size. >> and this guy looks like ken to me, but it's cody simpson.

>> this is the biggest trend for young girls. it's cody simpson from australia. they found him on the internet and he's the hottest, hottest pistol at 14 years old that you've ever seen. we have his doll starting this week at toys r us for the first time, and we think this will be as hot as the justin bieber doll that we have. >> is that a girls or boys' favorite or both? >> definitely the girls like him. they say, why have ken when you can have cody simpson? >> how much is he? >> about the same, around $20. >> so electronics have been really important for the holiday and very popular. where does tech fit into this? >> the leappad and another one called the innopad. they're both very, very hot. they're difficult to find. i can promise you if you don't find them anywhere, they'll be at toys r us. >> thank you very much.

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wsjr@cnbc.com. tuesday, november's retail sales numbers are out. that includes the dismal black friday shopping weekend, and the federal market committee hol its meeting also on tuesday. on wednesday we get a look at inflation and the consumer price index. on thursday we get a follow-up from that on the consumer index report. mx global testifies before another committee, the house financial services committee, we'll hear his testimony on friday. finally, the search for happy cubicle dwellers released its annual ranking of the 50 happiest workplaces in america. looking at 10,000 offices and compiling a bliss index that takes into account pay, worklife balance, job security and other factors. workers are happiest at chemical company basf, nordstrom, johnson & johnson, construction company

floor and hilton hotels. they were helped to the top of the list by a 4.6 bliss score by people you work with. making all hours happy hours, i suppose. that's all for us tonight. join me next week, it's the end of the year as we know it. tips to boost your bottom line in 2011. have a great week, everybody. see you next weekend.