on our broadcast tonight, decision day has arrived in iowa. a final breathtaking blitz on the campaign trail. our team is on the ground and ready, including tom brokaw on the people and the issues that will decide this first contest of the season. new details tonight about the man accused of setting dozens of argsen fires in los angeles. and the incredible story of the man being hailed as a hero for breakinged case. the royal mystery in great britain, where a murder victim has been discovered on the grounds of the queen's estate. they're piecing together the facts of this case. "nightly news" begins now. captions paid for by nbc-universal television

good evening. just a short time from now, the presidential election year process will begin officially as iowans, the most politically involved citizens in that state will go to one of 1700 caucus locations from gymnasiums to churches to living rooms. they'll gather in groups for the candidate of their choice. and later tonight we will have the results. while we may have a new front-runner tomorrow morning, we may not have as many candidates tomorrow. the first stage of this costly and grueling race is ours from an end. our team is on the ground and set, and we start off our coverage tonight with andrea mitchell at the polk convention center in downtown des moines. andrea, good evening. >> reporter: good evening, brian. blame it on the high stakes or

new rules preventing millions of dollars in negative ads. but in the final hours before tonight's caucuses, iowa nice has turned into iowa mean. mitt romney was the confident front-runner. ron paul the populous pied piper of the young. but the man with momentum, rick santorum trying to overtake them both. >> mitt romney thinks he's going to win tonight. >> good for him. >> reporter: the rhetoric is escalating. >> you characterized mitt romney earlier as a liar. >> no, i was asked if i thought he was a liar, i said yes. >> do you still believe he's a liar? >> sure. >> why do you feel that way? >> because he doesn't tell the truth. >> reporter: newt gingrich is complaining about a barrage of negative ads. >> what i object to, you have millionaire candidates who buy consultants who deliberately lie. >> reporter: romney brushed off gingrich's charge.

>> mr. gingrich called you a liar today, what do you have to say about that? governor, is that the way to campaign? >> we're not taking questions. >> reporter: romney reporters seemed to think gingrich was overwrought. >> there's a lot of pressure in the campaign. ofbviously candidates deal with it in different ways. >> reporter: the negative ads are unprecedented in iowa. they've had a huge impact. the good old days where you bounced around from living room to living room are over. now you have to fend off these huge attack ads from your opponents. >> reporter: and this emotional moment after allen combs criticized rick santorum and his wife for taking the infant baby home from the hospital after he died. >> we brought our child home so our children could see him. recognizing humanity in your son

is somehow weird, somehow odd and should be subject to ridicule. >> reporter: in this unpredictable contest, ron paul is still drawing crowds. and rick perry is trying to recover from a calamitous series of stumbles. >> this is omaha beach. this is going up the hill, realizing that the battle is worth winning. >> reporter: the question now, whether a single conservative challenger emerges to take on romney. and whether he can breakthrough to more voters. >> what is it about the citizens? >> i think people will get to know him and understand that he really does have a great sense of humor and he's really approachable. >> reporter: and if we need any more proof of how unpredictable iowa is this year, michele bachmann who won the iowa straw

poll in ames last august is now dead last in the polls. >> what a day, as we come down to the wire. andrea mitchell, we'll be talking to you later. let's talk about how this caucus process actually works on the ground. and to do that, we'll go northeast of des moines to johnston, iowa where ron mott is at summit middle school. ron, always having witnessed this, described it to people as voting with your body more than a ballot. it's so tactile and retail, and such a unique slice of democracy. >> reporter: it really is, brian. good evening. these caucuses are a real throw back to a bygone era. this is neighbors coming together, politics, community politics right out in the open. some of these meetings will be held in big spaces like this middle school cafeteria, some are in livin rooms. in a nutshell, here's what's going to happen. voters will go into about one of 1800 of these precinct meetings

in all 99 counties across iowa. they will listen, surrogates for each of the candidates will be asked to come up if they want to make one final sales pitch to these voters. they're handed a sheet of paper, write down the name of the candidate they support. the votes will be tabulated, they will head home, turn on the television, and cross their fingers and hope their candidates end tonight as the leader of the pack. >> ron mott, thanks for that. we want to go back into des moines now, and our political director and chief white house correspondent chuck todd. what an interesting race, how many lead iers have we had over the course of polling. romney trying to hang on, and look at the percentages. the winner will ultimately get. >> reporter: right. and the unknown question is, what will matter more to iowa republicans. electability or ideology.

you answer the question, you'll have a good idea who will win. mitt romney's making the case, he's the most equipped to be president. rick santorum is asking republicans not to settle but to go with their hearts and conservative beliefs. that's the ideology argument. four years ago here, romney lost to mike huckabee largely because 80% who showed up to the polls said values mattered to them more, and huckabee carried them by a mile. what romney's hoping for tonight is that more casual republicans show up, and if they do, they're thinking about electability first and that's how he could win. brian? >> chuck todd in des moines, iowa for us. thanks. let's check in with the moderator of "meet the press." david, you know the story as

well as anybody, can mitt romney hang on? how strong a showing in this wild race so far? >> you said it. he sets the tone tonight as he's done throughout the campaign. if mitt romney wins here tonight, he sets the tone for what could be a march toward inevitability. he's favored in new hampshire. he could somehow become a stronger front-runner. up until now he's been a weaker front-runner. if he doesn't do as well, shows up in the top three lower percentage. there would be some blood in the water. maybe it's the moment that there is a viable alternative to romney. maybe it's santorum. regardless of whether he wins or doesn't, the super bowl for social conservatives is still going to be south carolina. we have a ways to go. this is the start of something, brian. >> south carolina, florida, seven media markets there, a lot ahead of us. david gregory part of our team tonight, thanks. we want to bring you the first in a series of reports

we're calling main street usa. tom brokaw has been talking to folks across this country about the issues, what will drive people to the polls starting tonight in place like iowa. tonight tom's with us from des moines. good evening, how does it look this year? >> good evening. well, brian, it's worth remembering that four years ago, president barack obama carried the state easily. this fall, iowa is expected to be a major battleground state. on main street here, we're already hearing the concerns about the paul campaign. why is that? iowa is doing much better than most states. unemployment is under 6%. corn and cattle prices are paying handsome returns. iowa farmland is going for record amounts. so why are iowans upset? >> they lost trust in a lot of the government, particularly in congress and our current president. >> reporter: this is perry, iowa. 7,700 people live in this historic railroad town northwest of de moing.

and this elegantly restored hotel is a popular stopping place for the republican candidates, all promising they can do better. in the same hotel, i met four perry republicans who had many shared feelings about foreign policy, faith and the future. in the last week, national security has emerged as a more important issue that could continue into the fall. retired teacher phil stone on the president. >> i think he's had opportunities to stand up for america and has passed on those occasions. >> we want somebody that we feel confident has a direction, a moral direction as request as military direction. ♪ >> reporter: morality and faith are major considerations for these conservative christians. they have issues with the president and also mitt romney. >> you think that president obama is a man of faith? >> no. >> why not? >> i request not imagine a man sitting in jeremiah wright's church being a man of true

faith, being a christian. >> judy gardiner is the local leader of the baptist church. >> are you comfortable with mormon if mormonism? >> no, i'm not. >> does that keep you from moving toward mitt romney? >> yes, it does. >> eddie diaz is a perry high schoolteacher, part of a growing hispanic population attracted by jobs at the local tyson plant. his family came here from california in '95. he served as a marine sergeant in the iraq war before returninging to perry. >> why would you choose to punish these kids. >> reporter: recently he challenged michele bachmann for her hardline on immigration. explaining -- >> every election cycle, immigration is used as a punching bag, and it's so easy to demonize people. >> reporter: eddie could go elsewhere, but he likes perry, which he says is more moderate

culturally and politically than the candidates realize. the mayor agrees, he thinks once the candidates leave iowa, life will go on. >> i was at a meeting last night, the wife was democrat the husband was republican, they're both active in their parties, i think they've been marries for 25 years and look forward to many more years of the same. >> reporter: and brian, late today the city councilman and perry had to have a difficult meeting about upcoming budget problems, there were democrats and republicans alike, they said they were going to come to an agreement. when i asked if president obama was getting any credit in town they laughed and said, a new community college is built with local funds and stimulus money from president obama. this is just the beginning of a very long process. >> a quick word on behalf of the good people of with a wash

they've been under assault all over the airwaves, you can't get out of your house or staying in you can't get away with this, six to ten robo calls a night. tom, thanks for being part of our coverage tonight. he'll remain part of our team tonight. in addition, the msnbc broadcast team and again tomorrow morning starting with "morning joe." one more note from iowa tonight, the democrats are also caucusing, and while with an incumbent president, the result isn't in any doubt that democrats do badly want iowa in the fall. as tom mentioned, obama took it last time, this year it's officially a swing state and it's all about organization. for this reason, the president is going to address at least electronically organizers and supporters in iowa tonight. um next as we continue on a tuesday evening. he's being called a domestic

terrorist, we learn more today about a possible motive behind the man under arrest for setting over 50 fires. and later, the body of a murder victim discovered at the queen's estate in great britain while the queen was there. a big mystery in the u.k. tonight. le got a cold? [ sniffling ] [ male announcer ] not sure what to take? now robitussin® makes finding the right relief simpler than ever. click on the robitussin® relief finder. click on your symptoms. get your right relief. ♪ makes the cold aisle easy. ♪ robitussin®. relief made simple.

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jim, good evening. >> reporter: good evening, brian. it's highly unlikely that iran would try to close down the straight. even though they had a recent strong show of force. in a dramatic display of high seas military operations, the navy conducted a ten-day exercise in the strait and fired off a short range missile for good measure. according to military officials, they say there are apparently no signs that the iranian military is making preparations to make good on its threat. there are fears that given the jitters on world markets, even a small isolated incident such as harassment of those oil tankers coming out of the gulf could send world tensions and the price of oil through the roof, brian? >> jim miklaszewski watching this atted pentagon, thanks. you know this was welcomed

news this morning. they woke up to find out there were no fires in l.a. overnight. a four-day arson spree stopped cold after police arrested the man they say was behind it all. tonight we're learning more about his possible motive and about how he was finally stopped. we get our report tonight from mike tee eastbound by in hollywood. >> reporter: when harry burkhardt was pulled over at 3:00 a.m. monday he reportedly said, i hate america. what is certain is that officials see him at this point as a suspect who acted alone in setting some 52 car fires in four nights. many of those fires scorching adjacent apartment buildings where thousands lived and slept. >> the serial arsonist, i believe has been caught. >> reporter: when the surveillance video was released by police sunday night, an immigration official recognized burkhardt. he said the german national had been angry about a recent

hearing about his mother's pending deportation. and everything known about burkhardt was immediately circulated to a huge task force working the case. >> thousands of law enforcement officials had the information when they needed to have it, which led to the arrest. >> reporter: an attorney working as a volunteer reserve deputy sheriff is the one who pulled him over. >> thank you to the two officers who backed me up. >> reporter: during another deportation hearing today, burkhardt's mother blurted out, where's my son, he's mentally ill. her son remains in jail without bail. and the apartment they shared is now vacant, within shouting distance of several of the fires burkhardt is alleged to have set. mike taibbi, nbc news. a murder unfolding at the legendary spot where the queen and her family celebrated the new year.

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a surprising story out of great britain tonight and it's brought new attention to the royal family for a strange reason. the body of an apparent murder victim has been found on the grounds of the queen's country estate where she and prince phillip have been spending the holidays. we get our report tonight from nbc's michelle kosinski. >> reporter: just yesterday, queen elizabeth was on horseback enjoying the grounds on the estate where the royal family spent christmas together. by nightfall, she and prince phillip got some most unwelcomed news from police. >> i remember the public had been walking their dog in the area and had found the body of a female in a wooded area. >> reporter: the body of a woman, apparently murdered, found on the estate less than two miles from the queen's

residence. >> what do you know about what's happened to her? >> very little at this time. >> reporter: police do say the unburied remains have been there for up to a month in this divider between farm fields. sandringham is enormous. a 500 acre park and pathways, accessible to the public all the time. it's been a favorite royal retreat, deep in the countryside since queen victoria's reign. queen elizabeth's ancestors hunted here, her father died here. now a murder mystery on royal land that has investigators delving into cold cases and the muddy woodlands for clues, while the queen remains in residence. michelle kosinski nbc news, london. we're back in a moment with tonight's obsession on this side of the atlantic. [ kyle ] my bad. [ roger ] tell me you have good insurance. yup, i've got... [ dennis ] ...allstate. really?

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candidates. groups of iowans numbering somewhere north of 100,000 people will gather inside one of 1,700 caucus locations. some of them will bring casser ols and go to the living room of a neighbor. there they will make their decision and stand or sit for the candidate of their choice. later tonight we'll get our first results, for the winner it can mean a booster rocket to the nomination or it could mean you won iowa. mike huckabee won there last time around, and john mccain who was the eventual nominee came in fourth place. whatever happens, we'll cover it. you'll be able to see your shows tonight as we'll come in with periodic updates. then late tonight into tomorrow, we'll figure out what it all means and where we go from here. for us and for now, that's our broadcast for this tuesday night. thank you for being with us. i'm brian williams, we'll be on

the air throughout the evening, we hope to see you right back here tomorrow evening. don't forget continuing coverage on msnbc and tomorrow morning on today. good night. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com