>> this is "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> tear down this wall. >> the time for change has come! >> start loving that man. for some deep reason, republicans are rejecting mitt romney. three states this week were asked to vote for him and three states said no. when will the party base give up and buy mitt? render unto ceasor -- caesar -- is health care a matter for the

church or the state? did the white house pick this fight? and the wildest play in political history, picking sarah palin. why did mccain make such a wild pick? i'm chris matthews. with us today, the new york magazine's john heilemann, "the washington post's" kathleen parker, gloria borger from cnn and clarence page. first up, the revolt by many catholics over that white house decision on birth control. first, romney's troubles. conservatives can't stand barack obama. but when will they learn to stand mitt romney? even after the white house handed them that huge contraceptivives issues, they stayed home in droves.

conservatives just do not want to rat fi mitt romney. but they are the big prize. they've gone to 34% of total voters in 2004 and 2008. they now represent 39% of the people in the polls and the bad news for mitt romney, he's getting only 17% of conservatives. one in six. he's got to join the tea party. can't wait for them to join him. at the cpac meeting this week in washington, rick santorum had the crowd at hello. then romney's pitches -- >> i'm convinced if we do our job, if we lead with conviction and integrity, that history will record the obama presidency as the last gasp of liberalism's great failure and a turning point for great things to come. >> john, some say romney just had a bad week. but strikeout, all three.

then you see all these discussions about cultural issues where he seems out to lunch. what does he know about bishops and social issues? he wants to talk about bain and money. >> yeah, coming out of florida he was supposed to have it all to himself. we found out he has the same problem he's had all along. conservatives do not like him, do not trust him, do not think he's a conservative. >> kathleen, i've never seen the numbers this bad for a guy. he's supposedly the front-runner coming into this week when he got slammed three times. one in six conservatives likes him. one in six. >> chris, romney's campaign made a strategic error, and that is they did not court conservatives. they decided what they need to work on is the moderates and independents. in the general, that's true, but in the primary they need to court the conservatives. now they're paying for it. and now the allegiance is

divided among these three, each of shall of whom is a hero to a segment of the conservatives. >> but romney has said things like sentd -- send them all home, he's talked about going to war with iran. what hasn't he done to appeal to the right? it doesn't seem to work. >> well, it's part of the courtship. it's not always the things said in public but the things done behind the scains. now -- scenes. now you're should be aing your head? >> well, their strategy was as long as we have this slew of candidates who are going to divide up the tea party conservatives and eve not jellicals, we don't have to worry about that constituency, they're split anyway. now mitt romney finds himself in a situation where they have rick santorum, who actual lay pales to them tremendously. >> new poll numbers here.

do you like mitt romney more or less the more you see him? 52% say they like him less. pretty tough. >> that is unfortunate for him. that's a great understatement! >> isn't that a tough question? >> it is. he has had a terrible problem with phrasing his answers to questions with just making simple statements, you know, like the whole thing about poor people and all. he was making the same point bill clinton did in 1992, talking about the forgotten middle class, but romney just didn't know how to phrase it and sell it right. so he gets himself into trouble. he has a charisma deficit. >> the turnout has been way down in the primaries this week. nobody seemed to show up. we asked the mooth -- matthews meter, 12 of our regs, would romney still have curtain -- turn out problems this fall?

eight out of four say yes, he's got a problem coming ahead. one of the eight is you, clarence. he has a problem? >> most definitely. the john mccain parallel, i'm seeing deja vu all over again. the main thing is, will obama enrage the right enough to get them to vote for romney? >> it seems like romney is waiting around saying i'm going to see if nobody else wins this, if the economy is terrible, they'll vote for me. the me and getting a little bit better, and romney has still not said what he would do to make it still better. >> that's right. there is no positive economic message that's come out of him. he doesn't talk about anything in his speeches. and conservatives who want to hear a powerful, proactive in a conservative way message, they think he's kind of a goose egg. >> and he's so uncomfortable

talking about his own wealth that they're afraid he's not going to come out and call for lower marginal tax rates. he has an economic speech coming up on february 24 and i'm told -- >> he's going to lay things out? about time. the other big story this week, the white house's original decision to have companies pay for birth control. here's what they wrote. they may not like obama, they may like, rather, obama, birth control, and democrats, but they don't want to see their church beat up. kathleen, i thought you said it well. >> it has the added virtue of being true. the women i've talked to -- i happen to have a lot of catholic friends for some reason, and they tell me over and over that even though they don't mind the contraception

and even though this has become a conversation about kerpgsion, not freedom and liberty, they like it and approve it for others but don't want the church constantly beaten up. >> yeah, and we've been reading all this coming out of white house. three women, sebelius, valeri jarrett, all went to the president and said we have to make sure the women that work in these institutions are covered for repro duketive rights and birth control and then a couple guys got involved, the chief of staff bill daley and the president said nice try, guys, i'm listening to these women here. and they never listened to the ramifications. >> yeah, it's being framed as a war against the church, and it's really res on ating a lot better than the war against

christmas, which is kind of a fathom. but the war against the church, the people perceive it that way and that government is intruding. that has some weight to it, whereas contraceptives, that's something that 9% of people -- >> rick santorum talks about is it in terms of liberty. and also quite honestly the democratic party doesn't want to be seen as the secular party again. remember that happened to john kerry? so on fro -- two fronts politically, problems here. >> i think it may work to their advantage. they sort of began to fix it on friday. may have resolved it with is the liberal catholics. but did they pick it because they want to be seen as militant on women's rights and that sneps >> well, i don't know that they want to be seen as militant on anything, but they do want to

be down with the ladies. the white house sees a big margin to win in november by being super-strong with women. >> so if they can show themselves strong for women's rights across the board and not make too many enemies on the other side? >> that's right. there are a lot more people who care about women and women's rights than would be offended by an attack on the catholic church. yet the women can prevail in this and they don't want -- it's very tricky for them. >> let me ask, clarence, will there be a republican nominee picked, presumably romney, before they get to tampa? >> i'm afraid so. i say afraid because i'm a journalist and i love the fight. >> kathleen, will it be done like it's been since 1952

before they get to tampa? >> i think they will pick a candidate. >> i think they're going to pick a candidate. i think the candidate may have some strings attached. >> what do you mean by that? >> well, they may say we want you to do this, this, and this. >> who is going to say that? >> maybe santorum. >> before they get there? >> i think there will be a meeting, don't you think? >> well, that's a brokered convention. >> if mitt romney doesn't win both arizona and michigan, the odds of a contested convention go way up. for mitt romney to lose michigan, where he's a favorite son, would be a huge problem for him that -- >> well, we'll know a lot more than we know now. before we break, our own john heilemann wrote "game change," the best seller will -- about

the last election. now this movie based on the book. in this story of john mccain and sarah palin's campaign, while the production designers paid incredibly close attention to detail, they even tracked down the original campaign bus. here it is, i love this part. jilean moore's portrayal of sarah palin. >> you know they say the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? lip stick. >> wow. look at this doppelganger. her famous interview with abc's charlie gibson. >> you can actually see russia from here -- land here in alaska. >> you can actually see alaska -- russia from land here in alaska. >> and here, pretty good likeness here. >> yeah. just increb.

it's an incredible, i mean the performances are are astonishing across the board. >> and you won't let us see them? >> well, in due time. >> when we come back, the return of sarah palin. that's going to scare some people. how mccain took the huge risk to win conservatives by picking here in 2008. what will palin could -- do this time? scoops and predictions. we'll be right back.

>> welcome back. we've been talking about the power of the far right. mitt romney's problem with the far right is much like john mccain's was four years ago. mccain took the big risk of going with sarah palin. and the drama and run away train her campaign became is coming to the big screen, in

"game change," coming out next month. this part begins with mccain reciting the list of unexciting guys -- romney, pawlenty, bloomberg. who can we win with? >> none of them? >> none of these middle-aged white guys are game changers. >> so find me a woman. >> if you are going to seriously consider the governor of alaska, you have to call her now. >> this is sarah. >> not sure how much she knows about foreign policy. >> you can actually see russia from land here in alaska. >> oh, my god, what have we done? >> i wasn't properly prepped. >> she's on the verge of a complete nervous breakdown. >> telling me what to say, what to wear, how to talk. i am not your puppet! >> wow! seems like you're giving her a little break but mainly it's a knock on palin, isn't it?

>> the book tried to be very fair to her and -- >> but the fetal position there? >> as she was. re -- we tried to show both the dark side of sarah palin and the light side. there is no one who will see this movie who will not feel an enormous amount be admiration and sympathy and also see that there were some problems. >> you wrote an influential column, kathy, getting your jaw set here, that she should jump off that train she was on, quit the campaign. >> that was september 26, 2008. i remember it because it was my birthday and i got 20,000 emails. she was at that time, smeeze given the three big interviews on television and it was clear i thought to everyone that she was not quite ready for this game at this level. i wrote a very sympathetic column saying maybe she should

go ahead and drop out. but what i've seen, it's a sympathetic portrait of her. she was put through hell on that campaign. everybody will tell you that. she was in over her head, absolutely -- absolutely, and was thweatted -- treated badly -- >> by the campaign team? >> by nearly everyone. from what i've heard, yeah, she had a really rough time. >> she was not prepared on a number of levels. she was not prepared to be picked, and then she wasn't prepared by -- for the campaign. >> is mitt romney going to have to throw a hail mary or whatever his religion calls for this this case, put someone from the far right on the ticket like rubio or pailen? >> i don't think it's in mitt romney's nature to go do that and pick a sarah palin. i just don't think so. >> does everyone agree?

is he going to go whiled and pick a palin? >> i don't think so. i this -- do think he's going to have to think about the right. his natural choice would be a rob portman. that's what you heard in that clip, right? that's exactly the discussion -- >> real low-key? >> that's exactly the discussion they were having in "game change," right? >> you get to that place that john mccain is told he can't win with any of the boring white guys. that choice may confront romney. >> i think rubio would give the best of both worlds if he would go along with it. marco rubio, excuse me. unusual demographic, at the same time a very likable guy. >> in defense of mitt romney, he's just been bashed here, he has lots of good qualities, and his private sector experience brings lots to the table. if the economy is still in the

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>> tell me something i don't know is brought to you by charles schwab. >> welcome back. john, tell me something i don't know. >> well, economics really aren't going to matter in this

election. increasingly, forecasters are thinking we're going to see unemployment below 8%. good news for barack obama. >> gloria? >> watch mitt romney's tone when he takes on rick santorum. they've made a decision in the campaign. it's not going to be like newt gingrich, who they called erratic and unreible. santorum is too well liked. they're going to take him on on the issues and as a washington insider but nothing personal. >> even though the president has offered a compromise on the contraception issue, i think you may see a coalition of religious leaders form and push this for resolution even to the high court. >> with boehner's backing? >> probably. >> and the payroll tax deadline is up in three weeks and we're going to see a replay of the battle between the republicans and democrats. both are going to cave a

little. the republicans are going to cave more and we're going to see this extended again. >> for a year? ok. when we come back, the big question of the week. are the stories that -- about john kennedy's sexual behavior in the white house that just came out hurting his heroic stature?

welcome back. this week a new book by mimi alfred, the 19-year-old intern who writes that jack kennedy seduced her in the white house, brings us to this week's big question. does this story and others like it diminish jack kennedy's place in history? >> i think not at all. the notion of jack kennedy as a horn dog is pretty much pressed into the stock. >> look, the story is awful, terrible, despicable, disgusting, but i think the quite -- question's been asked and answered about kennedy. >> kathleen? as a woman?

>> yawn. >> is that your answer? thank you. >> that was my reaction, too. this seems like a lot of deja vu once again as far as that aspect of kennedy's character goes. but his image is still larger than life. >> i wrote a much more comprehensive book about jack kennedy. it's all part of the picture. you can't defend it. he's still a hero. thanks for a great round table. that's the show. thanks for watching. we'll see you back here next week. [captioning made possible by nbc universal] [captioning made possible by