>> this is "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you. >> i can hear you. >> a time for change has come! chris: buoyed by strong job approval, president obama is vents during out to challenge the attackers. he's throwing his record before the public, demanding credit for big decisions. he's saying, look, i'm the one who's done things. mitt may lack pizzazz. the way he's picking up delegates, he'll be the leader. finally, mad men. four years ago hillary clinton and sarah palin made history. different kinds, but history.

four years later american women wonder, how could some men go back to the bad old days, and so quickly? hi, i'm chris matthews. welcome to the show. with us today, "new york" magazine's john heilemann, "the washington post," nia-malika henderson, "the associated press"' kasie hunt and "the washington post" howard fineman. >> what would you like to say to mr. romney? >> good luck tonight. no, really. >> really. >> no, really, bring it on. for a long time there was a question whether the president would run on his record or just run against the republicans. this week that question was answered. here's a part of the new obama campaign film. >> how do we understand this president and his time in office? do we look at the day's headlines, or do we remember what we as a country have been through? >> our time of standing pat, of

protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions, that time has surely passed. chris: i talked to david on hardball this week and he believes an ultimate victory for president obama, but says it won't be pretty. >> we are prepared for a tough, close race. 47% voted against us in 2008 when we won a massive victory. so we have the wind at our back then. we don't have the wind at our back now. >> this isn't going to be easy. >> it's not going to be easy but the obama campaign is itching to get at the campaign. i think they wanted to release this movie in the midst of the toughest part of the republican primary season to make the contrast. they've already been making it in places like ohio. the president and his people think they have enough good things to talk about, whether it's the recovery of the auto industry, the steady addition of job. they're creating jobs that they can create a narrative.

david axelrod is all about the narrative. this is going to be a journey. we've come from a bad place to a halfway decent place. stick with us because we're going to get to a good place. chris: he's saying we've got a record, the auto industry, with the economy coming back, we can sell it. >> this is what democrats have been waiting for and the base as well. they've been waiting for something to sell this presidency. romney is going to very much focus on his record. on obama's record. he's been saying that this president has failed. a rejoinder has to be able to say bin laden is dead and g.m. is alive. chris: that's a pretty good bumper sticker, isn't it? let me ask you, kasie, welcome to the show. you're with "the associated press." you cover romney all the time. i was reading that romney has what she just said. their campaign is prosecution. you tried it, you b blew it. is that it? >> sure. that's absolutely what it is. like she said, the president has

failed. she have been itching to run against this president and they keep getting bogged down, running thains their opponents in the g.o.p. primary. they're spending time trying to get delegates to beat santorum. chris: there was a negative attack on santorum. they can't put these guys away with that kind of negative campaign. why do they think they can put obama away with it? >> that's the big question. what they've had up to now is an overwhelming financial advantage on tv. chris: air superiority, to use a phrase. >> exactly. they've come in and beat up the other guys and they've come out on top barely. they're not going to be able to do that against the president in the fall. his financial advantage goigs to be at least on par, if not overwhelming. chris: the president will play defense. he's saying we've got the economy coming back. we took on health care, nobody else did. we've got the nerve to do it. the prosecution will be led by romney. he will attack, you blew it. i can hear it in the debate. you had your chance and you blew

it. who's going to be the better performer? >> well, i slightly reject the premise in the sense that i think chris: can we get somebody else in here? [laughter] >> the president is not going to do one or the other. the president is going to campaign in a positive way on his record not just because they have a good record, the president believes he's accomplished big things. he's not going to back away from that because it's not in his heart. he is also going to tear mitt romney down. mitt romney's problem is that he'll be effective as a critic of the president. there's a lot to criticize and he has shown himself in debate, and he's good at campaigning in a negative way. the biggest problem is romney is ineffective in selling himself in a positive way. think about the way on all of these election nights, unlike the way that hillary clinton and barack obama started making speeches that appealed to the middle. they were setting themselves up for the general election. romney has not done that. he has given one good election night speech, and every other

time he's not making that point. >> it goes to kasie's point. he's got a problem of trying to survive in alabama and mississippi and he's talking about eating grits and learning to speak southern. cisis: saying it's a weight game. it seems to me if he spends all these zillions of dollars that he's got to restore our future, instead of defining himself -- al gore, of all people, who lernled the hard way, said if you don't define yourself, the enemy will. >> well, he's tried to. you saw him after his win in florida make arguments, i'm the turnaround guy. that's the argument he wants to be making. i turned around the olympics, i turned around companies when i was running bing capital and the state of massachusetts. that's the argument that you can take against obama. basically saying you didn't conduct seed. chris: but the economy is getting better. >> both camps recognize that this election is about trajectory. the democrats recognize that and

the republicans recognize that. depending on the trajectory of the country will help. chris: back to you. the president said in that nice byte we saw from the press conference this week that he is sort of happy, bring it on, kind of thing. good luck and all this. is he really happy to be facing romney? i thought based upon the reporting before this he was always a little worried about the guy, because he's this guy, you know, with the big family and the good name and he's got a clean record, good hair and all that. >> i think they probably would much rather face santorum or gingrich. but it is also true that they've been preparing for romney. and they also looked at the republican side and they see this fierce battle, and they do see that romney's numbers are plummeting, partly because he's having to -- his favorability is way down and he hasn't had a narrative for a reason for why he should be president, which is a very big argument that he's going to have to make. >> two thingsavave changed. the economy has gotten better,

and that helps obama, his approval numbers have gotten better and romney has proven to be a dismal candidate. so they are not as afraid of him as they were before. chris: let's look at our meter. 12 of our regulars. is there more uncertainty about mitt romney, about who he is and what he believes than past presidential candidates through history? 11 say yes, romney stands out. as a misfit in a way. as we mentioned before, here was romney thursday in mississippi. >> i'm learning to say y'all. i like grits. and things are strange, things are happening to me. chris: hoard, i don't know what to say -- howard, i don't know what to say. >> well, some candidates, some politicians, could pull off that kind of regional self-deprecation, because they had a sure sense and had conveyed a sure sense to the american people of who they were. if they didn't like grits, you knew what they did like. we don't know what kind of food he does like, to take it down to

the most basic thing. you don't like grits? ok, what do you like? and that's fundamental. but it has to connect, and he doesn't do it. chris: i think it's funny. let me ask you the tough question. this calls for profundity. have you seen a turning point in the obama presidency where he's really shown that he's truly become president, in the way that bill clinton did when he got to the tough budget fight? when ronald reagan came back from the assassination, ok, he's president. >> at the end of the year, winning that fight politically and substantively on the payroll tax extension was a huge deal for obama. >> and i think it kind of started after that debt ceiling fight over the summer. they always realize that august is a bad month for this president. and he was fighting on republican territory, talking about a lot of cults. he came out in september and gave a big speech in detroit to a union audience and barely mentioned debt deficit and cutting. so i think in some ways he began to make this shift not only to

re-election, but feeling comfortable. chris: august is a bad month for everybody. i was just thinking in my head, the old jukebox. nixon has to resign in august. we get the word about al qaeda to attack in the united states. everything in august. august seems to be -- what's it called, the cruelest month for presidents. casey, has he had his shot of presidential greatness? >> what i hear from the voters who show up at even these republican events, they mention osama bin laden. this is the president who got osama bin laden, and they all concede that point. you ask him, what has the president done? is there anything you can think of? chris: the most obvious, but overlooked. he got the guy we've been chasing for 10 years. >> that's why the a.p. is called the a.p. i think it's the good auto numbers. to me when the good auto industry numbers came out, when the auto industries paid back the money they owed, that took a whole big thing off the table for the republicans and

something that the president can brag about. more cars sold by detroit. chris: what's good for general motors is good for america. howard fineman said that. before we break, john heilemann and his co-author are seeing their great book on the screen as an hbo movie. there they were at the washington premiere, there they are, boifment here's a scene i like. here's woody harrelson, high think stole the show, as well as joanne moore. he played steve schmitt. at this point in the movie the prep for sarah palin's debate with joe biden is not going well at all, and schmitt has a new approach. >> what we need you to do is to memorize 25 answers and four tag lines. do you think you can do that? >> yeah, i can do that. >> on the subject of nuclear iran, senator o'biden and i are most likely in agreement. they cannot be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, period.

it wasononald reagan who said that freedom is always just one generation away from extinction. we don't pass it to our children in the bloodstream, and there is only one man in this race who has really ever fought for you, and that's senator john mccain. chris: wow. that's the prep in the movie. now watch the actual debate as it happened. >> it was ronald reagan who said that freedom is always just one generation away from extinction. we don't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. we will fight for it. and there is only one man in this race who has really ever fought for you, and that's senator john mack contain. chris: john, i love that movie. >> that means more to me than anything in the world. chris: if anybody doesn't watch this movie you're crazy. it's wonderful. julianne moore is sarah palin and woody harrelson is the role of the century. when we come back, four years after sarah palin and hillary clinton, of course, republicans

are infuriating women out there. no wonder women wonder, what gives with these guys? plus, scoops and predictions. be right back.

chris: welcome back. one every the time warps these days is watching republicans ignore the fact that women vote and are the majority voters. that warp is even stranger when you compare it to four years ago. with hillary clinton coming so close to winning the democratic nomination and palin being the first woman on the republican ticket in history. this was hillary's iconic speech as she ended her campaign. >> tall though we weren't able to shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling this time, thanks to you, it's got about 18 million cracks in it. chris: in the power of that force was not lost on sarah palin. it was her first speech to the

country the day john mccain presented her. >> hillary left 18 million cracks in the highest, hardest glass ceiling in america, but it turns out the women of america aren't finished yet and we can shatter that glass ceiling once and for all! [cheers and applause] chris: you know, with all the progress of those two iconic developments, hillary clinton coming so close and sarah palin getting on the ticket for the first time in history, and here we are the last couple of weeks, i do think it's odd the way we're talking about contraception. by the way, as if that's only a woman's issue. it's a male-female issue, obviously. and treating women like they're not really voters. what's going on? >> well, i think republicans are forgotting that there was a 13% gap in 2008 independent in a lot of ways that's why obama was able to win the election. he basically tied among male voters and had that 13% gain among wome there was a point where women did prefer republican candidates

in the house and senate races. but this is very surprising, a conversation about contraception. it's not doing the republican candidates any good. you feel at some point romney is going to get his wife out there bait more and talk about women's issues. karen santorum will likely do that as well. but it begs the question of whether or not they are going to be forced into this situation where they do look seriously at female number two vice president. in some ways i think mccain's choice of palin wasn't a cynical move. he thought he could transfer the hillary love to palin. didn't work for him. but they're going to have to look at folks like nicky haley and saws san martinez. chris: you look at santorum. he said he was going to bring it up in a campaign. then you have roy blunt leaving a fight on the floor, losing, he and rubio pushing this thing on the floor about contraception. >> and you have rush limbaugh,

too, making a series of remarks. from romney's perspective, it's like guys, you're killing me here. he wants to have a conversation about anything other than this, romney. he wants to talk about nothing except jobs in the economy and you saw him backpedaling on the limbaugh issue. chris: rush limbaugh made him look weaker, because he wasn't take him on. >> we were talking about this last night. if ever there was a riskless opportunity for mitt romney to have a moment by going after somebody in his own party the way bill clinton did, went after his own base, romney could have, without risk, gone after rush limbaugh and said rush limbaugh, stuff it. why didn't they do it? >> i posed that question to them and the question is, well, bill clinton is already the nominee. chris: the creation of this problem they've got. >> i think in a weird way, the problem that romney faces now is

not that unlike mccain. mccain faced a problem with women, but he faced a lot of other problems that sarah palin was supposed to solve. romney has a problem with female voters, independent voters and hispanic voters. i think the campaign is going to be inclined not to try to solve those problems. there's no one who solved that problem. >> there aren't going to be enough vice-presidential slots for romney. chris: when we c@

>> tell me something i don't

know is brought to you by charles schwab. let's talk about the personal attention you and your money deserve. talk to chuck. chris: welcome back. john, tell me something i don't know. >> over the course of the next two to three weeks, a lot of people we hope will watch the "game change" movie. a lot of people think it's a hatchett job, but when they watch the movie they'll realize they're wrong. >> george we'll idea that some some ways mitt romney is a lost cause and there should be focus on house and senate races is shared by a lot of people. i ran into a republican senator who i asked, are you endorsing this thing? he said no, he would rather focus on the house and senate races as well. chris: they're falling back to that. wow. kasie, welcome. >> romney is almost out of money, or at least if you look at what they're doing, it's obvious that they're struggling in ways they didn't use to struggle. they're looking at flying on smaller planes, fewer staff members. fund-raising all next week. so it's going to be -- chris: how about writing a check? >> that's the big question.

he says he's not doing it. he says there hasn't been discussion about it. you put yourself in a box when you do that. it's harder to get donations. so it's going to be the big question. >> he may have to do it, because i think there's every possibility of a contested convention, meaning that mitt romney won't have enough delegates amassed by the time voting ends to have a majority. then the key will be 150 basically republican national committee people. each state has three special delegates who are not bound. that group of 150 pretty much establishment people, could be the people who put mitt romney over the top at the end. chris: wow, excitement in tampa. when we come back, the big question of the week. take me behind the scenes. what's the one thing you've noticed about mitt romney that could turn this election?

st chris: welcome back. we have four campaign reporters, people on the spot here who cover the campaigns. our big question to them -- what have you noticed in covering mitt romney, something that may have gone unreported so far that could turn this election in november? john heilemann? >> i think romney believes he's going to be the republican nominee and is going to pursue that to the end. but i also tnknk he's a rationist. he'd be more likely to drop out than people think. >> i think when his back is against the wall he's able to deliver. in the debates he was able to put newt gingrich away. he's also, i think, at the last minute be reflective. he can talk about his mistakes and learn from them. i think the question is, is he going to be able to do that within real time and be able to change course quickly enough? chris: like the last second of the nba playoff game. will he deliver? >> mitt romney that's off camera, private, is personable,

funny, charming even. if they can figure out how to get that on camera in public, not have him freeze up the way he o does, that will make a difference. >> i agree with that. my first interview with him was years ago, with him and nn at the same time. this has been reported, but it's true. he's a different person when ann romney is sitting there with him and his good qualities as a family guy come out. the campaign has to figure out some way to get the two of them together to tell their life story. that would humanize mitt romney more than anything. chris: thanks to a great roundtable, john heilemann, nia-malika henderson, kasie hunt and howard fineman. that's the show, thanks for watching. [ female announcer ] with xfinity, you can always expect more. like more on demand shows and movies than ever. and more ways to discover them too. plus more speed from america's fastest internet provider. so you can run more devices at the same time. ♪ feel a firework [ female announcer ] and best of all,

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