why confidence is returning to wallstreet.. faster than on main street.... plus a check up on second quarter earnings season and.. besides stocks, bonds and mutual funds one pro explains where you can find alternative investments... and we hit the movies again - our analyst explains whether the summer's best movies are over. those stories and more all ahead on this edition of first business. be welcome to the show thank you for joining us and let's bring in matt shapiro of m w s capital he joins us from the chicago board its options and a look at the dow is up more than 3% the week when looks like the tech stocks could put a damper on things of friday's market action. who talked about yesterday we had enough energy to get over 9000 we had a break and enter into the morning after the close some big

disappointments. parker soft amazon and american express were not so good disappointing revenues to i don't think were going to be able to hold it this morning. some of those shares for microsoft and amazon in particular to a pretty big hit 5 to 8% in after hours so look for what happens here on friday morning opening. look ahead to next week as well some heavy hitting each kind data that investors are going to sort through. especially with the gdp later in the week. for me that is the big number second quarter gdp the market expects - 1 and 1/2 percent. i like to see that but remember the first quarter was minus five. if there is a negative surprise you know i'm a bull but we might not be able to hold these levels we need the news to keep on feeding this rally. will see what happened when you so much matt shapiro of mws capitol. will see you later on in chart talk. confidence on wall street seems to be returning much faster than on main street... and experts say that's not surprising... considering the

thousands of job cuts over the past 1 year - that's part of the reason why companies are able to report better than expected profits... after trimming costs so dramatically. this is an environment better for wall street than main street.. as you stabilize economy cut costs.. profits go up.. need to see momentum.. that comes from jobs coming back.. profits turned into hires.. overall economy back to stability we're almost half-way through second quarter earnings season and so far about 38% of companies have already reported results. here's how the numbers are shaping up: 60% of companies have beaten estimates... 35% of companies missed estimates and so far, sales are down 7% - which is coming in a little better than expected. and although the picture seems to be "less bad" on wallstreet - some economists say don't expect a major improvement in consumer confidence anytime soon. you have to remember..

regaining ground lost .. consumer confidence is still into recession territory - we need to see improvement in the jobs picture to turn that part of the economy around. the unemployment rate - which now stands at 9.5% - is expected to keep rising until mid 2010. and even though housing data have recently been coming in better than expected - many homeowners are still underwater on their mortgages.. so housing is not likely to give much of a boost to consumer confidence in the near term. the past one year and the financial market has had investors running to look for other types of investments we are familiar with stocks bonds and mutual funds but there's a whole world of other business out there and joining us to talk about it is clearly author of the only guide to alternative investments. you highlighted 20 different alternative investments. which ones are you talking about? well i think it's important their

investors understand the difference between core investment in alternative that i talk about in the book. the core investments are think everyone should hold basically u.s. stocks international stocks and people tend to focus on the large cap stocks some of the ones that are s and p 500. and on a fixed income side u.s. treasury bonds and very high- grade corporate and municipal bonds were to go beyond that i call everything pretty much an alternative assessment. the book goes into the good the flow of the bad and ugly and unfortunately there is only a handful of one so-called good rest our products i call want that are designed to be sold in of all this. because they make money for that pervades not the investors. the breakdown of the category involving tips commodities and fixed annuities. what we put those into the good category? i would add real- estate in the form of public equity stuff like a real-estate trust index fund is a great way to invest that way. please and i include these this because you can do that in a low-cost way to

and it provides good diversification for the core assets and your portfolio. hope that the criteria that you want to have the flaw the bad and ugly don't meet those criteria. in the flawed category you include high-yield junk bonds of venture-capital an emerging market bonds. the surprising because emerging-market stocks have done so well friday put the emerging market bonds? how used flawed not bad or ugly to the problem with high-yield bonds and emerging market bonds are relieved risky instruments. if you call on part of your fixed-income exposure if you really underestimate the risks of your portfolio and those bonds do poorly adjusted time after stocks are doing poorly so instead of providing the anchor for your portfolio keeping the safe they tend to drag you down so last year for example while very safe fixed it, and investments like u.s.

treasury support barry will and even treat carpal a hit and the support bonds did well these high-yield bonds fell 22% in as much as 50 convertible bonds preferred stock emerging-market bonds all at her just when you needed them the most to compromise safety. and that's why called flawed you're better off to an equity risk on the equity side of the portfolio. in the bottom two categories the bad and ugly including hedge funds equity index annuities structured in best products i want to go into an with td think they're fixed annuities are good but parable and equity index annuities are bad why is that? pearl annuities are not quite as bad as these equity index and the witty and they are really bad products have one of my favorite expressions is the more complex a product is the faster you should run. you can be 100 percent certain that the

complexity is designed in favor of the issue were not the investor and there is a lot of hidden threats in the fine print at our cost expenses while investors an opportunity for the good returns i would really urge people to stay away in the book describes very carefully what you should avoid these products. call on the unwitty side of fixed annuities are great because they provide longevity insurance. that means the rest of living to won't and when the money the parable annuities are not so good and they have a lot of flawed issues including high costs and other investment traditional wood by investing directly in equities. when you so much the bottom line is that we need to keep it simple. you can keep it simple and educate yourself the right thing to do understand. and you so much the author of the only guide to alternative investors.

still to come lesser known movie titles opening this weekend at theatres...could it mean the end of this summer's blockbusters? but first...ira epstein of the linn group joins us from the c- m-e group...ira it is scenes like the bulls are squarely in the car receipts when it comes to the stock market and the question i want to know is how long is the right going to let's push pork instead of the easter parade this is the earnings parade and this goes on until that earnings season is over until we get the numbers and. thank you so much ira back with ira after the break.

atinum sweet corn -- 8 ears for just $2 with your club card. safeway just lowered the price of summer. more or back everybody ira epstein of the lynn group runs up front as see any group and will top four stairhead what striving stocks in the think at this point people are afraid of being left behind? from this exactly what hideous. it was happening is that their earnings are coming and have. the earnest < there were a your growth at this time but there be trade estimates and as the

airport and then sure you have a stellar company are to effect of holding a be the estimates as they beat the estimates home half what to half jobless growth. looking at corporations able to capitalize on fewer people have having a small laboratory both their work will probably get paid more ahead and in the internet and if this keeps up what takes place test jobs lost stars to decreasing the anymore the san on monday job growth but i'm saying job losses and if you think about we talk about it almost six months ago, and of the year we would see the turn and this is very very much right on schedule. have we have about shooting less than the 9000 mark become a target on the upside? when you get into a some market would momentum normally it still may and go away here to work for a while until about two weeks ago in on the game is those that are in the money and there's a lot become no. as you go from 9000 to 10,000. you have also have your eye on the u.s. dollar the

dollar index is that when you're lows and i know you had a lower but you also think that's a good thing one is that? lower dollars keep what it means that our goods can be bought we already know that we have a jobless problems only people come here and by the soviets are factories up in going for the stylistic will take care of what our home has to be blind we do abroad? why were encouraging a lot of them were not doing it in such a great rate that loss and the faith in the dollar is going away. me looking at some one of an indian move slightly higher interest rates probably ahead but overall a lower dollar because of the amount of debt load that behalf. could isn't there a point where former empire say it's not worth the risk to keep buying are dead? it does where are you going to go. they tried that with floating the idea of another reserve currency by a look at the size of our economy in comparison to others in our debt load vs. the size we're still the place to be at this point in

time. this talk about the inflation risk been done and he says inflation should remain low but they missed the mortgage meltdown what should we expect them to get inflation right? hawks i think they get more rights than the wrong industry import impart certain things certain people who problems of the problem now as i see courage is that in order to get the inflation going we need a scarcity of something in increased demand right now and i didn't get a complete scarcity but there is anticipation of demand markets like copper have already moved and is only 50 or $60 from his high silver is for the down in the gold is and of course now we have crops coming in soon and that will depress the copper market for a while. a steady close a look for the market interest rates today just above 3 1/2% for the 10 year hook at what level the bank high rates would be alarming like five or six percent? but when i year whitbread half percent and that was keeping everything going they're so low that eventually what happens is that

training begins and as the planning begins in the money starts moving through the economy. right now is a stimulus package and what scares me than all honesty is the commercial part of this and good job loans. they're still to be coming down so i think there's other ways in the economy coming down but nothing like the sock and the last september to march period. thank you so much as always ira epstein of the lynn group. online items china warns that u.s spending may be out of control...on our website...hear why experts say it's time for america to pay attention. plus, you ever wondered how a cell phone call goes through?... paul eggers takes you behind the scenes at a cell phone switching center...you can catch these stories and more on our website, firstbusinessx.com. and straight ahead on the show.... with the summer movie season almost over...can studios hold on to their yearly gains?...we'll find out when we talk to our movie industry analyst...after the break.

with two-thirds of the summer movie season over could your reporter be the last blockbuster of the season? and can steal hold onto their gains david sikich is back with us to talk about these issues. welcome so its still alive but is the best over for the summer movies? the son of lease season isn't over obviously but the point on things start winding down of weeks gone six weeks ago and the movies are front loaded early in the season for reason

kids are going back to school in august in her report was less traditional blockbuster doesn't mean to say that there's not going the other big movies opening this one come from non franchise source is from this point on that and be more releases three a week before even in august general these a brad pitt's in the scan and be hit and miss a little. when will see what happens here is interesting to see more 24 people is never a bad thing but since we know last week even with the big process of harry potter the overall business was down 30% might that happen and why the same your last year dark knight opened that did better than potter and ed had meryl streep mummy open the gifted and in 27 million this year it was no fresh competition. and that had an impact at the box office. so this spring and movies opening this week how do you think they're gonna do? none of them were born and be as big to knock off harry potter that's going to be a number one fan fourth bond another week or so but three

movies and probably the best of the bluntest disney's g four is pretty silly in between these kenny pig to be spies is have animated half live action is gonna be big for kids and families i can deploy 5 million but there is a romantic comedy from columbia which is the big crowd and i can do the high teens and and trailing is the one brothers exorcist tie and lead is gonna be the weakest of the bullet that maybe 12 or $15 million ofng that happens is that when more and more leaves open caught movies have to be taken off the screen so desperate is between the best writers and their owners fighting to keep stuff on the screen because once they get off the screen they can earn a month they have to collect dust into the dvd releases. so with studios opening last certain unknown titles is this a chance

for smaller movies to get audience? there's definitely more plentiful movies later in the summer than at the start of the summer. on one talk about to movies and those going out the traditional way and was going out and unconditional way when the traditional one is 500 days of summer if fox searchlight is a quirky of be prominent company for a hip young audience it was the biggest of limited opening of the year $31,000 average and when the opening wider to about various cities in the orders in the next few weeks and this is one to watch and fox searchlight knows how to handle these types of movies. they've had a poll in dynamite blew miss sunshine in past summers so this one has a chance to do 40 million just like those others but beyond conventional movie going on in a different way is the difference the tire in the loop is opening in chicago and new york l a index lost fronts this week. five days later is going out on video in demand. that's a trend of the future because smaller movies are having a tougher and tougher time finding distributors to

release their release in theaters. they have to find alternatives met this this is going on and 50 million cable homes have five days later because i f c is part of cablevision 8 mimics per person economic sense because most people live in cities where there is no art houses. so it gives them an opportunity to see these and be support by 99 at their house at the same time audiences in new york and l.a. are seeing them. so we're gonna see more of this in the picture. alternative methods of distribution for smaller movies. bottom line this year is shaping up to be another profitable one. we're still 9%% above last year's collapse six weeks there's gonna be some unexpected hits every thing is still go and find is doing solid business. and so much as always david sikich movie industry analyst. , of matt shapiro is back with us for a tripod and we highlight a stock that has seen a 20% jump in the past one month. that's coming up next.

çñçñçñ

welcome back to everybody matt shapiro of m w s capital along with us for chart talk and that it seems like during the recession everyone is looking to candy for comfort. one of my favorite stocks hershey's stock symbol current h s y i have owned for years had a great day yesterday came out with a blow out during to raise the guide and if and when from about 39 to 41 and the man's story here is a solid earnings and solid dividend pays about%. percy is

the nation's second-largest candy maker so let's take a look at the chart here close to 52 week highs i mean where would you want to buy this? it's gone up a ball point person in the past month alone. exactly who missed five books and it was wallowing at 35 were ever but last year it didn't get hurt in the pull back. but again% is like a seven year treasury and what tends to happen with large blue-chip and they raise guidance is that they just get going and the company only has a $10 billion market cap so read it has room to go as men's high as 50 the last few years. when thanks as always pre insight matt shapiro of m w s capital back for being with us this week in think you everybody for watching will see you next time. see y next time. s