the recession makes it harder for americans to save for a rainy day...from unemployment to everyday expenses...the downturn has nest eggs cracking everywhere. plus, what if pump prices reached * *20-dollars * a gallon?....why one author says it could change our lives for the better. and...its a battle of the sexes at the box office as studios and their shareholders count on the d-v-d market to prop up profits. its ahead on this edition of first business. here we are running ahead of friday's opening bell been the first friday of the month is a job friday of course in the expectation is that it will be less bad news in the down from under real-estate and overall economy. looking ahead to next week is going to be a big one for investors with the f one seat decision on interest rates upon the federal reserve this coming wednesday and of course the big watch word to look for its commercial real estate the

fed is watching that very tersely and coming in a moment will talk about the chances of another government bailout in the commercial real estate industry. it gets down to jobs real-estate of all kinds from residential to commercial folks working and looking for maybe fewer lost jobs in the past month. commercial real estate... could end up being a ticking time bomb... or a slowly sinking ship... either way it's headed for collapse - but experts say it's hard to tell just how bad the situation could get. one thing is clear.... we could see foreclosures of large buildings... and retail spaces start to pick up pace... in the last 3 months of this year... and into 2010. for now though, banks are still reluctant to pull the trigger on foreclosures ... hoping to work with owners of large buildings... so they can extend their loans... and keep their buildings. we're seeing lenders and banks working things out.. sit down

with borrow to move things forward but as vacancy rates soar... it's putting a big dent in cash flow for large building owners.. making it difficult for them to refinance their loans.. this year, vacancy rates at office buildings are running at about 17% and retail space vacancies are at 12%.. and those at industrial buildings are at 13%..according to some measures.. but there are cases.. in which the successful office tenants are able to help alleviate the pain for landlords... some deals involve a tenant getting a couple of years free rent.. in exchange for extending their lease.. that helps landlords prove they have cash flow.. so what the tenants have done is agreed to long term leases... at attractive rents and helping landlord get refinance in place. the other big issue on the radar screen - is whether private money will be able to save the commercial real market... so that banks don't

get stuck with these properties. while there are some situations where private investors are buying distressed properties... the big money is still sitting on the sidelines. when do we see the entire market back.. as far as banks and reits... they're gearing up right now.. building coffers with cash to become buyers... probably end of first q next year to mid year next year and they'll definitely need a lot of cash this year.. 275 billion dollars in commercial loans are coming due over the next 4 years combined ... that number totals more than 1 trillion dollars in commercial loans that will mature. insiders say those big investors need to pony up for distressed properties sooner rather than later - or else we could see a bloodbath in the commercial real estate market ... and some are not ruling out yet another government bailout.

i think gov't could do what they did for residential markets. by printing more money.. and may have to .. if private capital. doesn't come to table.. buildings need to refi.. underwriters can't change standards.. gov't step in and print more money for commercial markets.. just like residential in recent weeks, federal reserve members have publicly voiced their growing concerns about commercial real estate problems... fed chairman ben bernanke says he' watching it closely.. and said last month that the government may need to take further action to support the commercial real estate market... including gauranteeing commercial mortgages. it's expected that july was the 19th month in a row that the u-s economy failed to create any net new jobs as the unemployment rate is predicted to jump to new generational highs. as more americans loss their jobs, many of those still working continue to get by pay-check to pay- check. a third of working americans, according to a new

survey, would immediately fall behind paying their bills if they lost their job. another third would be delinquent within two months. you need to develop a plan to stash some money away for a rainy day and most advisers would suggest you need to have three to six months of savings to be able to weather that storm. but in this recession, even that rule of thumb may not be enough for some. more than 4- point-4 million people are considered long-term unemployment....having gone without working for at least six months. in june, a third of people who were unemployed had been for at least that long, forcing them to dip into what savings they have...which experts say should be the first source of money. we certainly think that's the optimal way to go because obviously if you take cash advances or you look to take out a second mortgage or home equity loan that's only creating another bill. as part of the stimulus plan in february, congress extended unemployment insurance beyond the traditional 26 weeks. but by the end of next month, the national employment law project figures more than a half million americans will drop off the unemployment insurance

roles. at it is the jobs number dear everyone is looking forward to our friday magazine and is with us a been zero long time till we seen him over at the cme group welcome back it's good to see you. it thinks. take a look at the market you're trying to drift higher certainly in the month of august ahead of these jobs numbers would you think that foretells for the rest of the month? all this is historical the not a huge up much but statistically i won't be surprised cut end of the know will be higher i do have concerns the market has grown a ahead of a tear for last week to cut a lot of ground very quickly and we haven't seen a healthy pullback this point if they tried to sell the market off numerous occasions empire is coming in in the late afternoon each and every time i'm still looking for a sizable pullbacks put this rally to be healthy and continue higher long term. if bond rose less bad job

numbers so in effect on friday would you be? i think that's a distinct possibility if it. and a d p report big challenger job report in both reports raise the red flax perhaps companies small to medium-size companies are going to be going through another round of heavy layoffs and certainly that's a concern when it comes to christmas spending go forward. messina lasalle futures group over at the cme group. still to come an a-list actress takes on a well-known soldier at the box- office...and what impact dvd's are having on studio profits. plus, the implication of 20- dollar a gallon gasoline...we take a ride with one author who thinks it could be good thing.

gas prices are well off there highs over $4 a gallon, but drivers are still complaining more and driving less. but what if gas climbed to 6 dollars a gallon, 16 dollars a gallon or even 20 dollars a gallon? what changes would come then? christoper steiner offers his answers in the new book, $20 per gallon: how the inevitable rise in the price of gasoline will change our lives for the better." we followed him around chicago to profile his insights. "as we go from $4 a gallon to $6 a gallon to $8 dollars a gallon each one of those price points will bring a different change. and that's how $20 a gallon the book, is arranged." the world at $4 a gallon is easiest to recognize because well, we've already been there. and as steiner points out, those prices did bring real change. "well 2.97 is pretty close, but $4 changed a lot of things, people drove 100 billion less

miles than they did the year before." that decrease was the largest drop ever and marked the first time in more than 30 years that americans actually drove less year over year. and while those who remember paying $4 bucks a gallon may find it hard to find the positive from such prices, steiner's research points to a bright side. "right now we lose over 40- thousand people each year to road crashes. well at 4 dollars, we're going to lose almost 10-thousand less people than we do at three dollars." $6 "at $6 a gallon, it will really be the official death of the s- u-v at that point. it will just be a nichy product." for hummer drivers that may not be good news, but for other motorist, roads without s-u-v's will be safer. consider that for every 1 million toyota camrys on the road, 70 people die in accidents, while more than twice than many, 148 people, die

in accidents for every one million ford explorers out driving. steiner also argues that americans will be fitter at $6 a gallon. "more than 30% of americans are medically obese. according to unc professor charles courtemanche, for every $1 up in gas prices, there's a 10% reduction in obesity rates.." $8 at 8 dollars a gallon steiner sees the death of the legacy airlines like american.... and united $8 a gallon will be the death of most of our airlines. american, united, gone. we'll be left with southwest and jetblue serving most of our domestic capacity." and while the loss of a number of airlines and the loss of jobs associated with them may be hard to swallow, steiner believes it will help bring families closer together. "families will live closer together. people will think twice about moving to the west coast if their from the east

coast. you're going to risk seeing your family just once or twice a year." $10 steiner forecasts the world when gas reaches double digits in a parking lot full of the typical cars we see today, "at 10 dollars a gallon, people will start buying different types of cars. and i don't mean they'll stop buying suv's, they'll have long stopped doing that, at $10 per gallon they'll be buying electric cars because then it will start making sense." he cites ford as the american car company most prepared for higher prices at the pump. "they've stayed in business without taking government aid. there also the only company to stay ahead of the game as far as hybrids and advanced technologies go." shipping giant u-p-s is also preparing itself well for an increase in fuel costs. "ups has built a company operating around the world on cheap gas. they're very aware of their dependency on fuel and they're preparing themselves for higher prices. they know at

which point they can use different kinds of vehicles profitably." though steiner does point out companies prepared for more expensive gasoline, he also calls out firms, including big box store wal-mart, that he believes could go belly up should gas continue to climb. next week on first business, find out more of steiner's winners and losers shouod gas climb to 20 per gallon. still ahead movies and money...guys versus gals at the box office this weekend...and an upstart d-v-d rental business puts the squeeze on studio profits. that's coming up next.

it is a battle of the sexes at the box office this weekend and looking for more profits from the dvd business. david sikich is back with us. watching the movie business in the movies as well. welcome back. hi tom. meryl streep and g.i. joe basically this weekend julie and julia. the support and in this battle of the sexes she took one dark night last year would mummy a hill rome has is a coincidence or the strategy? i think is good strategy because columbia put them on august 7th the key is going to be the best that can grow as the most late summer and is due to because of merrill streep one person. she may have taken three decades in terms of hit her career but she's not only considered the best actress in a world where her 15 oscar nominations but she is considered one of the most

bankable actresses following her smash hits the double worst problem but ammonia this movie has been creating both among the women and full network goes out to 100 million homes i see women and even men and really flocking to see this movie. not only that this is a popular topics but it has a good underlying theme of women finding their own destiny in the professional world and having their husband there is about real people and good husbands and the fact that there hasn't been many movies and the middle of may him this may still have today is going to be number one this week because it has more springs and it is the last big action movies was probable about 50 million and with paramount relieved of green with this movie after transformers $40

million budget for julia and julia so a real difference here much different hurdle to get over. but the ideal kasper was on our real good job of convincing hollywood to make movies out of their toys and games than they have been successful there one continue to have a presence in hollywood because they have announced movie deals on the wheat board battleship can land in the movie were most looking for to see monopoly the motion picture. other revenue streams we've seen a get them box office revenues over the last several weekend compared with previous weekend's but the d b d business steal it generally at least one rental side is still struggling. put the direct rule says the awareness profits sticking with the beans in has been lowered this year overall home entertainment business is down about 4 percent but it doesn't

tell the whole story because it's a transitional phase you have new formats and digital down bulls we have streaming they're doing ok but compared to the core dvd sales business of the studio is very small what's happening is that people are looking to save money and they're renting rather than buying and the real growth area is in rental now flexes up 22% and i think the big story is with red box. we see dennis stock price in a rental sales double digit increases read box is this start up a dollar rental automated machine at grocery stores on by " star almost two-thirds of its profits almost two-thirds of the revenue in the first half year is from the rear box not from the " star machine is same store sales is a booming business. this is a real growth or area and they're the dominant player from 600 locations but the studios have not all been happy about this because of lows person and

universal several months ago said we're going withhold. it didn't take to college there been sued by reebok's the studio has a tough situation to avoid a company that has low pricing that actually impact the future growth? some companies are making deals on the side sony is one of them they one of the biggest bills and five-year deal worth one did $60 million that would increase their presence for 14% to 20% so they're looking for short-term growth here the thing this is a difficult thing how much do they devalued their product. the fact is this a real answer in is the president and the theatrical markets they're still around but they never received the product at the same time they've had to wait their turn

to this is gonna be very interesting to follow suit with the outcome is going to be. david sikich along with those watching the movie industry. prom earlier in the show we talked about how bad the commercial real-estate market could get in now we take a look at what's happening on the charts that's coming up next.

everyone is talking about commercial will stay so we are taking a closer look about to e

t f that track industrial and office bait custom of i o m one e t f called i why i that tracks apartment we take a look to both of these exchange traded funds of the file in the broader base it cools and other industrial space to get a look at mr. market you wouldn't notice the things on eclipses of collapsing certainly some buying interest is continuing to materialize birkenau some new highs. a second look at some of the performances sustain rate so year to date these e t f r of 6% and they are lagging but overall stock market. another thing that bothers me by i why are it actually closed thursday below where it closed wednesday despite hitting new year high and significant out in. experts say watch for close as pick up the pace in as one keep a close watch on these rates. log on with us free videos first business x. c o m we'll see you there and back here next time than watching.

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