is the stock rally running out of room? or is this sell-off in the past week a pause that will re-fresh buyers? after a three percent drop in a week, what the talk of the trading floor is? plus, the biggest bank bust of the year. colonial bank is the largest bank to collapse this year...as the pace of closings is picking up...and putting pressure on small businesses. and...why the recession has both consumers and retailers * already* thinking about the holidays...a look at what some retailers are doing now to help edge out the holiday competition later...it's all ahead on this edition of first business. join the dog days of the best in the month of all this coming off the worst day of the market since july and july was one heck of a good month. we have lots of miles ahead of was for the week ahead housing that is gonna be front and center housing starts on tuesday as

well as existing home sales this out until friday but certainly housing is definitely going to weigh especially on market is in pull back mo. it is all about the consumer is all about the availability of consumer credit and thus cutting down to the housing market and the new home starts is due on tuesday is gonna be a first-time big pecan the month of august about how the july numbers have been shaping up. will see what chairman has been saying about the economy in the market when he speaks and jackson wyoming on friday. but back room before we get to friday tuesday wednesday and thursday ben weinstein is with us at the cme group in the what about the tone of the market sell-off we saw one day i envy yesterday's basically started from the open requite a bit ahead of the opening bell and we did see a little bit of a sell-off in the pit but it basically died out we had a very trading session in the most part with the closing bell copper very low about about an but it's been

typical of the month. have no that the sell-off is in due in part because traders and investors are dumping their long positions but what about people initiating new short positions to what extent is that happening. fat than we are seeing that with little bit of least some of it started on friday night there was a big sell signal forswearing traders coming round 10 05 even 10 04 when a lot of selectivity that we busy friday. the pullback friday afternoon had some of those sorts concern to the new and is still short concern put in by the proposal would we can do very well coming in monday morning and the close monday. what's your opinion about how for the sell-off in gold? let's get a fair amount opening to continue to the downside right now 972 was a big global s and p i thing 955 put up with an eagle ever in maybe in terms of 9000 these are loath to support right now on the need to uphold. if this is a rejection of those

levels of both 1015 and s and p again at 1000 was a big number and gave way. the spaces of the selling pressure is natural after the run-up we saw in july and certainly since march boy wellpoint happens this sell-off that we see become the sole positively the freshest this is somewhat healthy considering the rate we were extending it to the upside again i'm always a big fan of a two-step for best of back-this is right now we're in a one stilbite backstage anything below 950 s and p opens the door for concern at this point and if we see any continuation of that again the high energy rejection is will look and get right now of 1015 and 1000 so i think is close with a stable of 915 is a pullback it could be healthy and economic and other raw frontier 50 and s and p in the upside but 950 need to hold. traders audio doubt, at the cme group. after colonial bank becomes the largest failure of this year...

experts say the closures are now picking up pace and they will happen at a much faster rate from now on.. so far in 2009, the fdic has closed a total of 77 banks... last year... 25 banks were closed.. during this crisis - bank failures cost the fdic more than 18 billion dollars this year.. and about the same amount last year... that money is depleted from the fdic's insurance deposit fund.. which consists of premiums that banks pay into. we spoke to jim cahn.. of vestian.. about which types of banks are most likely to fail. "banks most at risk.. have the most real estate loans.. specialize in lending to real estate developers.. builders of single family homes.. most at risk.. with large commercial real estate portfolios." the number of failed banks is still historically low - and these failures are more of a burden to local communities...and probably do not pose a risk to the overall financial system. the ripple effect these failures will have.. is that it'll make

it even harder for smaller businesses to get loans... and the situation could force them to close their doors as a result of their banks failing. these days.. smaller businesses that are still able to keep their lines of credit intact... consider themselves very lucky in this economy. "makes me feel good.. sometimes we take it for granted.. that we have such a good bank.. that's always given us a line of credit.. and if we had a bank that did go under... but we just have a bank that's played it conservative " the fdic has its eye on 305 banks on the problem list.. that continues to grow longer.. as more banks fall under the pressure of bad loans. the fdic will update its bad bank list at the end of this month. while the federal reserve contends the economy is leveling out, it is giving more time from certain markets to repair themselves. the fed's term asset-backed securities loan facility...or talf....was set up in march as a strategy to

help auto, student, credit card and small business loans...and in may it was expanded to try to help commercial real estate. the program allows banks to exchange these types of ious with the federal reserve with the hope of encouraging more lending. but with this specific talf program originally set to expire at the end of the year, the fed is worried the markets for these types of loans repairs - quote - impaired and seem likely to remain so for some time. so, while not committing any new money, it will continue to offer to buy such loans through the end of next march. coming up, we'll be talking with one market strategist who thinks worries about commercial real estate may be overblown. still to come christmas in august?....why the

recession has retailers preparing a lot earlier for the holiday shopping season...that's later in the show. but first...how one market pro is navigating this economy...we'll get an inside look at his market strategy...that's coming up next.

energy prices have been dropping after the recent run-up and real estate remains weak.two areas our next guest has been buying. steve stahler runs the stahler group. call witnesses see you. welcome back. before get to some specific investment ideas coro how of westerns are approaching this market has changed greatly we heard a lot of stories about investing for risk which has to be very different compared to investing for growth. i people racine here we have two different types of people buying the market we have a traders in this is a trading market. we have those who have invested for their retirement or their future and how they're approaching get a lot different.

traders market means you have to be more agile enough to have higher risks policy you have to stop bulldozers while they're still small before they become larger and you have to take profit. what traders make money in the open air market there's a lot about was moving this market i believe. let's talk about some of the best ideas you're here back in june a couple of the ideas you have a master in on limited partnership focus on in russia d space in exchange traded fund of these in the piece has outperformed the s&p five porter better and to present the you like some of these names? i do in fact if you look at them as a whole will be sought was back in 2007 early 2008 the values run the crater. part of that was because of the hedge funds dumping them there were a money-market. and also because of their more debt in the big concern is that they're not gonna be up to refinance debt. what happened early going back to march in fort is that they refinanced their debt here than we traded

so i think this looks pretty attractive to investors who are really investing before the safety of income and perhaps some inflation in tax benefits of as well. now in comic couple of times because they do, and nice dividend rate lot of times. very much so and if you take a look at most of the holdings or all of the holdings in every you'll find double digit returns. in the peace you mentioned the refinancing of debt these are as much a financial investment as it is an energy investment is in it? refinancing of debt was important but i'd like about these stay you get paid a pretty nice cash flow for the bottom of the commodity going to the pipe a lot of people are nervous at the price of gas natural gas oil prices. sure. these get paid once i like to pay for the bottom of the commodity code and the pipeline. i do believe once the recovery really begins will start seeing this flow will see some of our

reserve stopping. you minted commercial stay because six weeks go the worries continue to bill about the proverbial other shoe in the real-estate market we already see residential estate operator but you are a buyer. i believe that if you are a distressed seller you're gonna have a little problem. if you're a distressed finance of writ real-estate and have a problem. " we have been seen is that a lot of these really good properties that just can't be refinanced are being put on the block is substantial discounts as well as some of these loans in these mortgage loans creates a cash flow opportunity for investors as well as in my opinion the potential for long- term growth. we took a look at these exchange traded funds that focus on the real-estate the commercial real estate that outperform the s&p 502 time put the broader market when he starts to look for profits in these areas? there's so much

distress selling gold and going. i would say were on the lookout a couple of years the recovery again we have some issues that we have tax issues we have inflation issues we have kept in trade issues we have a lot of unfinished business. at the la customers are concerned that are spending their money but when things turn around and start producing the manufacturing will see across the board will see these things do very well. to be cleared despite the run-up of both of these assets consist you're still buying? i think that the board has yet to come is just a refinancing of debt in the real-estate yes i think given where they are and where they're buying currently i think there's opportunity. for some room to grow. steve back with us he runs the stahler group. online items from higher interest rates.. to a lot more fees across the board... some of the changes

you'll be seeing as a result of credit card reform..that story is on our website plus, learn how technology is factoring into healthcare...the impact it could have on costs and quality of life and...important tax concerns congress will need to address once it's back in session...you can find these stories and more on website, first businessx.com. and straight ahead on the show... the downturn has many americans already thinking about their holiday spending...what retailers are doing to help lure in those early holiday shoppers...that's next after the break.

even before the back to school season is over, retailers already have plans in motion for the holidays. sears and toys r us launched christmas websites in july. a lot rests on the appetite shoppers will have to spend come december.laura rowley writes the money & happiness column at yahoo finance. even before the back-to-school stopping season is completed retail have already put in motion holiday plans and serous toys r ross and kmart are just a trio of big retailers that have already launched holiday sales in july believe it or not let's talk about holiday spending she believe we're talking about holiday spending already been so much rests when the december appetite for consumers especially given this economy. for consumers going to be approaching spending capa's come december? " that's interesting there's a new survey from killed in research and found about three-quarters of consumers say they're gonna approached holidays differently because of the downturn in the economy to 60 percent said their own spin last half our on-out more affordable stores and half are going to save the money in

advance rather than the last minute shopping for putting it be on a credit card ec consumers already thinking about how their been approached the season. the sense however as you write your money in happiness, senior research and talking to customers that come december 23rd were actually going to have the wherewithal to say no with last-minute spending? xi i don't know by my own spending would come before the holidays but i do think people are planning ahead more than they have in the past you saw what happened with the national savings rate going from a negative number to be on a 5% very quickly so people are changing their attitude toward shopping. what's interesting is that the retailers are to bear trying to come up with creative programs to get people to think about holiday's sears and kmart came with this christmas club card and it works like to give car it doesn't cost anything but bill give you a print%

reward on the amended to put on the car which is better day you would put it to save the money in the bank between now and the holidays you get the 15 percent match and is like your 401k you combine that with the cells into pawnee construct your holiday money and little farther. but i hate to be the senate but i can already hit the market, black friday the more you spend more you save. the more you spend more you save although the capt. research showed that seven out of to and consumers said they actually want to be more generous this season they're desperate that they can't afford it. that's from the personal finance perspective that's part of the beauty of starting now is not only kenny said the money in advance but you can also think of a gift that are more meaningful a little more thoughtful because the little less because you took the time to put it together 24 percent of people in the survey say that they're gonna give more

homemade gifts. so we extend that out it could mean fewer less growth in guilford cards and a category that we saw broke expeditiously. that's interesting it could have impact on the give car programming classes and we also saw some controversy around give cars because some of the retailers who issued them one out of business and were basically offering 40¢ on the dollar and on the card one thing about christmas club card is that it never expires if you use the money this holiday maybe you'll use it a different time of the year. have you made your first holiday purchase yet question marks know by making it my best. i'm a big july shopper i shop in july usually for christmas i by buildings from last season that are on sale, july not tell any of her relatives. boy we took our vacation we normally go on vacation in august we won last week in july but is interfered

with by his daughter judges of starting now as a part of school supplies. laura for along with us she pianist the money and happiness column at yahoo.com. but we will talk more about the recent two to three sell-off in the overall stock market that's coming up next in chart talk.

welcome back everybody as we began the new week the market on monday selling off almost 3 percent for the dow s and p in nasdaq so i guess the question is how much of a sell-off is this going to turn out to be? the liechtenstein drawn lines in the same with the s&p 500 about 550 the exchange traded fund follows the s&p 500 when you put it on the target can see we have a ways to go whether we're going to be able to revisit the last lows that we have which were back in early july after this most recent rally at that point your but half the price below $90 a share. the most recent low in july came around $88 for the spiders have been taking a look at the nasdaq it was not able to hold the $40 level so the level that which to watch as a boy of $35 a share the was the most recent low in july. in short term was frustrating with retail rally is when you put a line on the bottom of all of the

most recent sell-offs going back for march to roll the july ruby about leading the trend so the short term it looks like maybe the trend could be sideways a little bit weaker but perhaps that can be more constructive long-term become become a long way in the short period of time. people an eye on the nasdaq it's been a leader on the way up in recent smart to nasdaq is the year to date 29% since jane married persons the s and p 5.2 which is up only 9 percent so clearly the nasdaq is leading so the buyers come in on the nasdaq that will give you a sign that the dow and s&p pipeline will also. will likely come along for the bride several ways to communicate with us go to our website at first business x. c o m. the male voice mail and will appeal instructions we will hear from you. woolsey one linebacker next time and thank you for watching everybody.

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