today on u-s farm report...

today on "u.s. farm report", the government issues another big crop report in more than one sense of the word. growers fret about where to stash the upcoming huge harvests. and late-season explosion of crop pests poses a tricky dilemma for producers. "u.s. farm report" brought to you by chevy, an american revolution. good morning. welcome to "u.s. farm report". i'm john phipps. another month, another government report that has some of us scratching our heads. we'll have the details in a moment. i think one constant is emerging. confidence in government numbers for production and forecasts for usage are wavering around the industry. whether deserved or not, should usda numbers be bypassed by private estimates due to inaccuracy or sloppy methodology, it will add one

more factor working against individual producer. let's see what they came up with. the agency pushed up its estimate of corn yield by 2.4 bushels an acre over its august estimate. total corn production from this record high yield came in at just under 13 billion bushels. the surprise, however, was the projected ending stocks of the current crop of 1.65 billion bushels up just 15 million from last month even with nearly 200 million bushels more prove ducks. and 130 million less than the average trade guess. soybeans, however, werelet less dramatic. yield was bumped you have from41.7 last month. 2009-2010 carryover was raised about in the middle of estimates. cotton production was raised to 13.4 million bales just slightly above expectations. here is al pell with the rest of the news. >> thank you, john.

good morning, everybody. there's a new chair pern of the senate agriculture committee. senator tom harkin stepped down from the post and will chair the senate education committee taking over the post following the death of ted kennedy. blanch lincoln has been named to take overt committee. with lincoln as chair and saxby chambliss from georgia as the ranking republican, sowrn southern agriculture will hoped the top two poifts in that committee. growers facing tough decision. at issues, is it a good idea to store the crop in hopes of better prices ahead? darryl good says current price levels corn storage is favored over soybeans for farmers in his test. good says producers can receive returns from a strengthening basis along with a possibility of a bump in future prices. he says bases pat temperatures are more stable than price patterns.

usda is ramping up efforts to protect the u.s. swine flu from the upcoming flu season. secretary tom vilsack says his department has given two masters of the h1n1 to veterinary vaccine makers hoping it will help the process to make a vawk seen to protect swine herds from the flu. he they will buy more food programs which begins october 1. the sekt secretary did not say how much the ag department would buy, but last month the ag department said $30 million purchased for the current year. reminder for livestock and ranch producers. monday is the deadline to register for the indepartmenty program for the 2008 calendar year t provides assistance for producers for livestock deaths that result from disasters such as hurricanes, floods andblizzards. for producers who sustained losses this year, the deadline to register is in january. that's it for the headlines. now back to john for crop

watch. today's crop watch begins about 20 miles northwest of columbus, ohio. a grower says he had a great soybean crop coming along but seen an explosion of white mold in many fields west. got it prophoto from a producer who says grass hoppers are bad this year. this one is about three inches long. he says he's worried about planting winter wheat because the grass hoppers will eat the seed a sun flower producer says grass hoppers are getting about a bad in his area too. they're starting to eat winter wheat cede seed along the edges of the field. as far as the sun flowers goes, he's about three weeks away from harvest. still to come, our weekly marketing round table. this week's guests include brian doherty from stewart- peterson and mike florez from florez trading. the discussion begins in just

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"u.s. farm report" round table guests this week, mike florez, florez trading. brian doherty of stewart- peterson. the government came out with a last report before we get into mid-harvest so we know what's going on. what did the report really tell us, brian? >> not much. it gave us a surprise of corn- ending stocks dropping 133 million bushels 1.635. that's slightly supportive number. as a hole whole, the report confirmed expectations for good yield in corn. 43.3 for bean t did tell us we have a good crop on tap just waitling for -- waiting for more weather and time. >> the weather, everybody is waiting for the big frost which may not happen. we're still going to get a good yield it looks like at this point in time. >> yeah t-looks like it. markets certainly been trade that go way. pushing the marks down, down, down based on a big crop coming. the usage is pretty strong. going forward, you're going to

need this crop. >> last time you were here, about 6-8 weeks ago, you just kept talking about prices are going to go up and up and up. what changed that thought? >> more acres with grapes. so, the supply got better. the demand also is getting bigger. it's going to be a balancing act. it's the fall. we're coming into some low times. it would be my guess coming in for more times. doesn't mean you buy it mondayment it's being priced on supply. demand is kind of the backside right now that will come to the forefront soob soon. >> this is a time of year when there's a process close to the lowest price normally because the harvests -- the prices go down at that time because guys will be selling off. let's talk about something else and that is whether or not you should store and whether you should store your corn or your soybeans or sell it all off the

combine? >> i'll run with that. depends where you're at and what kind of storage capacity and -- >> based on your -- >> that's number one. how is your bases. is it wide? if prices are suppressed, sometimes that bases is good at harvest. rather than pay storage cost and elevator, i encourage farmers to consider moving the grain, retaining ownership with some type of paper product where you can compare the costs of that and the risk of that compared to paying to take on the market risks for storage. it's not an easeiier no brainer answer, but we are seeing a typical harvest type pushed down this year typically a good point to own grain either in storage or on peer good point for farmers to own the grain one way or the other. retain ownership because you're looking for higher prices later on. that's what you didn't tell me, but that's what i understood. >> not only for producers, but for end users as well to start looking at the idea that we're in the lower third or fourth of the market and that they should be looking at an offensive strategy to own grain.

>> you talk about end users. now he's beginning to talk about demand. i know you watch the demand and what's going to happen you mention add while ago. >> think about it. 1/3 of the corn crop is used for ethanol production now. we didn't have that five years ago. >> that's true. >> so, my theory is that you are in a super bowl -- super bull market. you'll have wave up, wave down. we've got another wave up to come. so, to my way of thinking, you're going to need all this grain that you're perusing because demand -- pro peruse because -- producing because demand is going to come greater and great ear are you agreece greeg that it's probably good to own the grain one way or another? >> yes, i think you should be, yeah. livestock factor seems like it's starting -- sector seems like it's starting to come back too. that's been the weak sister of the explored ethanol and livestock usage. two of them are good. one of them is starting to bottom out. i think usage is going to become greater especially with the price of grains coming down

also the dollar weakness. it just makes our grains much more affordable. >> actually, our sales overseas has actually been pretty good. china has really been buying like they're never going to stop. what's going to happen with that? >> i think they're going to keep going. don't you? >> it will keep going. where i may dave little with mike in the year ahead at least, i think with the last two years indicated in showing to us that we've had many challenges with the crop as producers were good at it. we can produce. we can plant late if we get good weather. the assumption that we're going to have good production is there and the market recognizes that it falls apart in a hurry. i think what farmers want to focus on is seeing a little more strategic and being prepared to sell rallies. the send rallies have a balanced approach to the marketing and look out ahead for 2010 for opportunity to sell those rallies. defend it as need be. make sure you have good balance and defensive posture based on

can't can't. >> we're going to talk about when we need to sell the 2010 crop. i assume we'll be back with more "u.s. farm report" in just a moment.

round table guest this week mike florez and brian doherty. during the break, we talked about what was going on. you gave a good presentation. where do you think prices are going to be going near term and what farmers ought to be doing, brian. why don't you give that so everybody can hear it. >> what i try to do is look at the likely scenarios. lakely scenarios for corn futures is probably the bottom on december futures in that range. that's base the on a lot of criteria that i look at. once prices reach that level though, we'll look for a recovery into the winter months. that's when we want to concentrate and focus on

selling old crops and looking heald ahead to selling 2010 crops. >> ok. so, but you think -- you already said everything is going to do that. you don't think farmers will be selling at 275. they'll probably beholding on more. >> i don't see that. i see a lot of storage caps teeth last three years especially. mike mentioned ethanol. farmers aren't naive. they've built storage for these opportunities and price rallies. they want to put grain storage. they don't want to give it away at harvest. i think farmer selling will slow down. i think we'll take frost premium out of the market in we don't have early frost. if we do prices slide, it will go into the bin and look for post harvest recovery. >> what are they to do? >> i'd start pricing something f you're ethanol user, yeah, i think you want to lock in price because i don't think six months from now they'll be lower than where they are now. you can take some risk by booking something. maybe you don't do 100%, but something. 20% or so. >> i'd like to say that everything is all setup now. we're going to start the 2010

when we need to start pricing 2010 because i think farm standpoint one of the things you want to do is figure out a way you can put a margin of profit in that operation. so, when should we start? now? >> i don't think cost production of corn was around 3.50 a bushel? that's pretty high. i don't think you have that in december 2010 future. i don't think you have it. the way i look at t-we're going to be kind of like a mirror what we were last year. we're going into next year with about the same amount of corn as we did prior year. we're going through the same battle again, what do i plant, corn or beans? it will be a big issue. i don't think there's really any opportunity for the 102010 crop right now and you don't know how south america is going to go. >> yeah, and there are some question about at least i heard from some of the marketers that the current rise in bean prices the fact they were trying to buy more acres in south america which means competition for us. any relation to that?

>> any comments on that? >> the world is shrinking. i think mike and i agree in this context. when you look at the world supplies, world economies, world inventories, there's not a lot. there's not a lot left over at the end of the day. so, consequently, your markets are going to reflect that through volatility. our encouragement is for farmers to recognize that volatility, embrace it, use strategy. increase market knowledge. discipline, execution, sell, defend. utilize option. farmers need to be better marketers not watch the market go down after they thought it was going higher. >> the contest is even though you didn't say it, i'm hearing you say it wouldn't be a bad idea to have a plan down there so when those prices get above your cost of production that you can lock in some that have. >> i'm a big believer in initiating cash sells to sell value and hopeful that your worst sales initially. they only way that becomes your worst sell is the market goes

higher and you utilize other tools to put a price floor in. >> i know did you a lot of opportunities. do you anything in the future where things are going up or things are going down so the speculators might be able to take a position? >> i think you'll make your lows in the next 30 days on all of the grain. you know, it just seems like we're always a prisoner to any part of the world having some kind of a crop failure. >> right. >> if that happens, up you go because we really don't have any cushion to speak of. so, any kind of wiggle in china or south america is going to pop the market. so, you're down now. the negatives -- we're look at the negatives now. ahead, you look at the positives. that's what's coming the pawz positives. >> when do you think the market is going to turn around? >> october 15. >> i've got a date out of you. >> i think he's in general right. use october as your pivot month. big crops generally get bigger.

sometimes the market puts in a in prior to harvest. generally the fall harvest when we see the easing of pressure. >> i appreciate you saying that. >> back with more "u.s. farm report" in just a moment. trying to locate new or used equipment? mymachinery.com has the largest listing of classifieds anywhere on the web. whatever you're searching for, you can find it on mymachinery.com.

welcome back to "u.s. farm report". we check the drought monitor once again. it hasn't changed a the whole lot. much of southeast and southern texas still in exceptional drought but at least you've been having some rain. it looks like there are chances as we head forward as well. dry areas in the carolinas and the northern parts of wisconsin, western u. p. of michigan along with spots back across north dakota and

minnesota and the typical dry areas in the desert southwest into california and nevada and into washington and oregon in some cases as well. here is the jet stream by monday. strange situation basically. a lost cutoff places in the middle of the country that allowed systems to move westward. we have a trough in the northwest. a trough in the far northeast and the cutoff right there in the middle of the country. as we head through this week, you can see how the first cutoff tries to link up with the main trough then gets cut off again. so, again a-strange situation under the cutoff highs you can sometimes have systems spinning their wheels and producerring -- producing afternoon thunderstorms. you can see the ridge build back into the west and will start to build the heelt heat back in again. monday, we're look at a pretty good trom into -- tropical moisture in southern parts of the country, southern mississippi valley good showers and thunderstorms there.

cold front across the northeast. high pressure still from the great lakes back into the plains states and that's going to cause some pretty warm temperatures for this time of the year. by wednesday then the first cold front coming into the pa sick northwest falling apart. another one coming in there with showers and thunderstorms. slow mover in the southeast. stationary front still causing some moisture. our models are suggesting, anyway, that that starts to lift northward by the end of the next week. we're not sure about that. cutoffs react kind of strangely yet from time to time. we're going to cause at least show a chance of showers and thunderstorms from the lower great lakes through the southeast. we'll check the 30-day outlook coming up in our next half hour.

most of the news this week has been centered on health care reform and president's speech. even farmers watching fading markets waiting for government reports are paying attention. they should. if you think carefully about it, reforms being discussed could have significant impact on farmers and their families. many of us have to get health insurance coverage as individuals. an ordeal that's growing more problematic every day. in fact, one of the main reasons so many farm families have one spouse working off farm is to find employment that guarantees some kind of coverage. ask anyone with diabetes or a child with asthma. now, add in the problem of rescission where coverage is canceled after a big claim due to tiny or even unrelated errors in the original application. despite the heated rhetoric, it should be note that had both sides of congress appear to agree on new regulations to end these practices. how to pay for them is another

matter. the odds are these problems could soon be eedz. now, imagine how farm families would change if there was no fear of losing health coverage or getting it. i think we would see many more spouses working side by side forstarters. better still i think removing this headache would enable producers to deal better with the immense business challenges ahead. as always, we want to hear from you. send comments to info@-- info@usfarmreport.com or leave us a voice mail by calling 800- 792-4329. coming up in our next half hour a-dairy operation inside prison walls. stay with us. the second half of "u.s. farm report" is coming right up.

"u.s. farm report" is distributed by report... the changing of th today on "u.s. farm report" the changing of the guard on the senate ag committee pore tends trouble for climate change legislation. farm trouble is a year-round job, but fire season deserves special attention. the government deploys new government tools to get vital information on food recalls. >> "u.s. farm report" brought to you by chevy, an american revolution. and welcome to u-s farm good morning. welcome to "u.s. farm report". i'm john phipps. thanks to the arcane and

arguably outdated internal rules of the u.s. senate, the death of massachusetts senator kennedy began a change of leadership changes in the upper chambers of congress. rural states are disproportionately represented to begin with, but since they have slower turnover, their senators tend to have the most seniority. look at crucial committees, senators from iowa, arkansas, montana, north dakota and nevada hold the chairmanships. the senate has the right to organize themselves as they wish, but in the same breath i have to admit that it's laws passed that rural america doesn't like, it won't be because they were steam rolled by majority rule in the senate. time now for the news with al pell. >> thank you, john. good morning, everybody. new chairperson of the senate ag committee has been critical of the chiement change bill passed by the house earlier this summer. lincoln took over the post from

harkin who stepped down to take over the health committee led by the late kennedy. link okay was quite vocal in the house verg of the -- version of the bill. she called it deeply flawed and places a disproportionate share of the economic problems on families and business persons of rural america. here is roger bernard. >> reporter: lincoln becomes the first woman to headup the senate agriculture committee, but that doesn't change the issues. that panel has still got to attack this year. climate change is one of those. panel has already held two hearings on the topic. lincoln's views may surprise some. in that she says passing a climate change bill by the senate this year could be a tall order given the heavy, heavy schedule that that chamber already has and frankly lincoln sees backed up picking up on capitol hill and that is

that climate change finish line could be pushed back to 2010 and maybe even beyond that. now, the fact that lincoln hails from the south has created maybe uncertainty from growers from other reerjons. lincoln -- regions. lincoln says don't woan worry about that. she points out during the 2008 farm bill she worked with lawmakers from across the country to bridge the regional differences and expects to continue that pattern as she heads up the ag committee. for "u.s. farm report", i'm pro farmer's roger bernard. >> with harvest under way in many parts of the country, it's time to remind our viewers about sharing the road. during harvest, farmers often feel the pressurer to move quickly both in the field and on the road. unfortunately as you move equipment, you can also run into impatient motorists. that's when accidents occur. university of florida expert has developed an on-line training program to help education motorists. goal is to keep farmers and drivers safe. it's a 25-minute on-line program. the web site is something you

can share with folks who don't understand the challenges of moving farm equipment. to check it out g-to nasdonline.org. click on the interactive training series. the program is free, but does require you to register. also on the web, two federal agencies have revamped the site to help you get food recall information sooner. the fda and the department of health and human services want consumers to check out the site foodsafety .gov. it allows customers to sign up for e-mail and rss alerts or recalled or unsafe food. in the future, it will allow you to receive text messages on your cell phone about food recalls. fish is a favorite on many dinner tables these days. a new report from the national academy of sciences shows half of all fish consumed globally comes from the farm. the report shows you a kwai culture has tripled in size from 1995-2007 in part due to

the increased demand for omega 3 fatty acids. they're credited for lowering the rick of cardiovascular disease. that's it for news time now. the forecast now from meteorologist mike hoffman. not exactly jet stream pattern we see all the time. we do get cutoffs from time to time. this one being in the midful country is a -- middle of the country is a little different. pretty good trough as we start the week in the west. that will cause moisture out your way a lot of the west is dry. this is good news. this is hit and miss afternoon stuff, but the showers into the northwest should be significant in some areas and this tropical moisture being picked up with the cutoff low in the jet stream overt midsection of the country will continue to produce some moisture in the southeast, southern mississippi valley. however t-stays dry across most of the northern plains and great lakes for most of this week because this is cutoff from the main jet stream.

we have a trough in the northeast and still the northwest on wednesday with a cutoff still sitting there and as we head towards friday then, our models suggesting the cutoff moves a little farther north that. might start to bring the moisture into the lower great lakes. we're not real sure on that. it kind of depends on how this cutoff kind of reacts. they don't always react the way our models suggest. this is kind of a strange situation to see a jet stream like that. let's take a look at things as we head towards next week. we'll go above normal temperatures from most of the great lakes and most of the west and northern plains as you can see. below normal from eastern texas through the southern mississippi valley into the mid- atlantic states. as far as precipitation is concerned next week, that's september 20 through the 26th. we're look at above normal precipitation for most of the mid-atlantic even into parts of the northeast. especially the southeast. below normal for almost the entire western 2/3 of the country the way it looks. the 30-day outlook fortemperatures, we'll go near normal for most of the corn

belt. that's some good news although you start to get the frost situation here obviously which we don't need early this year. hopefully, things will stay warm. warm from texas into the southwest. 30-day outlook for moisture above normal, northern plains, western great lakes which is good news there. also south texas below normal for the drought areas of texas and parts of the south. john? >> thanks, mike. when "u.s. farm report" returns, we visit an oklahoma farm more than a century in the making. "spirit of the heartland" is next.

the struggle to a big issue across rural america is the struggle to keep the family farm in the family. to that end, oklahoma has a special program to honor families who stayed on their farm for more than a century. in this report from oklahoma state university, dave deacon

has a look what it takes to become a centennial farm family. >> 107 years ago, eye sack williams received a flier. a flier from a church that said on this -- set on this land. that flier would change the life of a virginia man and generations to come. >> my grandpa came here in 1902. he purchased 320 acres. we're a little over 3,000 acres now. my son and i are actively farming this thing. >> reporter: john is the third generation and his son, karl, is the fourth. this is censy, she and her brear cale are the fifth generation of williams all to have grown up on the original 320 acres. over those almost 11 decades, they've seen some good times and some lean times, but the family has always made it through. sometimes you just have to dig in and ride it out. >> there's a well east of here. it was hand dug and they quit one night and there was water in the hole and they got back the next day to finish the hole

they was going to dig deeper and it was full of water within about two foot of the surface. it was the only well in this part of the country that really supplied water and neighbors for several miles came around to fill their tanks and get water out of the well. they never pumped it dry. >> reporter: that's the well everyone got water out of that watered your familiar hely and so many other families. >> yeah. >> reporter: so, it is a tremendous achievement actually to actually have held a piece of land in your family for 100 continuous years. as of 1992, the williams family had. they applied to the oklahoma centennial farm and ranch program and were accepted. being recognized as an original centennial farm in oklahoma. >> people are looking for all kinds of ways to keep the history of their family alive. >> well, i grew up on this farm. i was born on this farm. growing up on the farm was work. we milked cows, had chickens and slopd the hogs. >> reporter: we try to hohn ore

these families the best we -- best way we know how because -- honor these families the best way we know how because we recognize what an achievement is. >> reporter: 100 years is a long time. how can oklahomaians prove their family owned the land all these years. >> we need the tracking of who has owned the property so that original person and the page that shows that it was given to each person differently after the current owner. a lot of times in abstract we'll go back the 100 yeerts. >> reporter: the hand dug well no more than 20-feet deep may be covered, but the history of thewilliams family and willcrest farms continues to grow with each generation brought up on the land that eye sack williams, formerly of virginia, now of oklahoma, purchased over a century ago. this is dave deacon reporting. >> in all, there are 1,200 farms and ranches that have been recognized in the oklahoma centennial program. when we come back a-dairy

separation inside prison walls. please, stay with us. a new york

lawmaker is looking to provide immediate reli a new york lawmakers is looking to provide immediate relief for the struggling dairy industry. chuck schumer says they should redirect $600 million and issue direct payments to producers. under his plan, rei am bumplt plans under the milk program, milk income loss contract would go to 95 cents for every dollar under the target price. schumer calls this a stop-gap measure until congress can come up with more long term solution. since february this have year, the ag department projects it has pumped more than a billion dollars worth of milk payment into the dairy industry. it's not often you'll find a working dairy inside a prison. in tennessee, it's proving to be a win-win opportunity to.

make it possible, college students and their veterinary instructors go the extra mile to help care for the calt cattle. as chuck denney from the university of tennessee reports, the inmates and vets make a good team. >> reporter: a dairy croy has to spend a lot of time a good pedicure is necessary for happy hooves. hoof issues are one thing dr. mara looks for when she visits this unique dairy farm inside the gates of the southern regional facility in bledsoe, county. it's a prison dairy where they're use -- uc college of veterinary medicine. >> we come here and take care of the calves, to all the vaccinations, dehorning. we also take care of and then we look at the adult cows. >> usually staff members. they do all the herd health.

they usually herd two to three times a month. >> they also keep an eye out for mast yieties that affects milk production in cows and makes sure reproreproductive hem health is good. this family farm has been in the business for more than 200 years. it adds up to some two million pounds of mill being a year going to other state facilities. the cows certainly do their part, but u. t. veterinarian prayed the 46 inmates who work very hard to make it successful. >> the inmates take a lot of pride in their work in take care of the animals and they're very helpful when we come out here. >> reporter: the work here is also good experience for future vets. in tennessee and around the country, there's a real need for largal animal veterinarians who care for livestock. meredith is in her final year of vet school and may consider this as a career option. >> absolutely because we get to do so many different procedures

and there's a lot of animal care so we get to see a lot of variety and it's awesome. it's a really great facility. they take good care of the animals. it's been a lot of fun so far. >> reporter: while this may not be your view of fun, it moalt vaits the vets. around here when the cows are well and inmates pitch in, milk flows. this is chuck denney reporting. the u. t. vet school also helps out a couple of other prison dairies including one near memphis. when we come back, two illinois teenagers team up for this week's "tractor tales". miss any of today's show? head to usfarmreport.com, "u.s. farm report", the spirit of the countryside.

tractor tales this week comes to us from the "tractor tales" this week comes to us from the farm progress show in decatur,

illinois. we kaat caught up with a couple of faa students who restored a pham p farm all super m. >> it started out on fire sat in pasture for five years. it was completely gone through. only thing we haven't touched in it was the transmission gears and we had a mechanic that worked on m's and h's for years. he says it's fine, leave it alone. everything else was completely tore apart and he redone. we have over a thousand man hours in it. that's just shop time. that's not going, getting parts. we've got $6,500 cash in it and around $9,200 with donated parts add fld. >> when we started out with it, there was a bee's nest in the bell housing. when we brought it into the shop, we sprayed it up with raid and about two days later the shop floor was covered. it was equipped with hydraulics but not a lot of ppo. it was used around the farms t used to pull a three-bottom plow.

normally, it would pull a trip plow instead of a hydraulic plow. >> a lot of students who had never been inside a motor know how it works, they've been completely through it. they know how it works and all the exoa nepts and the transmission year end, -- rear end, they've never seen one before or know what the inside looks like. they have a chance to see that. they've also learned how to learn a lot of different tools like a torque wrench, different tools we had to have to get this project put back together. >> tickets were sold for this tractor to help raise money for the local fha tractor. the winning ticket was purchased by guy particulary of stewart, illinois. we travel to mirs for our first country church salute. the church of christ began worship services in the early 1930s following gospel meetings in the community church biological building n1961, they built their own home chump across the road. attendance is about 40 for weekly services. our thanks to greta webb.

our second church is celebrating their 150th anniversary this year. the first united melt difficulty church of good afternoon net, kansas, has its meetings with a circuit writen preacher. the first church was constructed in 1870 after attendance recovered after the civil war t seated about 500 people that. building was replaced in 1911 with the current church home. addition the were made in 1965 and '74 and improvements continue today. one of the oldest methodist congregations in kansas. we thank joe sample for the information. as always, we'd like to learn about your home church as well. salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. please stay with us. mailbag is next.

closed captioning brought to you by optimum brand innovations from pioneer hybrid. science with service success. time now for a weekly look inside the old "u.s. farm report" mailbag. dennis tucker asks why prices are so low for commodities. correct me if i'm wrong, but it seems to me that low price force grain is due in part to over production. your statement is 100% correct, but reminds me of the old joke

about what caused the downfall of the roman empire. answer, carelessness. economists love commodities because the only characteristics they have in the marketplace is price. corn is corn is corn. the market for supply and demand but simply blaming over production leaves out half the equation. we would not have overproduced if demand for some products have not fallen off a cliff when recession decreased discretionyincome. it has been impacted by financial blundering in theethanol industry and efforts to support farmers which encouraging production and suddenly we went from worrying about enough graif grain for food and fuel to storage problems from a farmer's perspective, it's hard to predict your own crop size let alone global supplies. overproducing can happen because conditions are better than usual as is the case this

year it seems. the somewhat good news about commodities is they will all get used. prices need to drop to where demand again needz meets supply. however, that painful process has many of us thinking about producing less of some crops for 2010. please, let us know what you think. feel free to contact us directly. send e-mails to info@usfarmreport.com or call 800-792-4329 and leave as you voice mail. for al and mike, i'm john phipps saying thank you for watching "u.s. farm report". be sure to join us again next week. we'll be working to do even better.