time homebuyers looking to take advantage of uncle sam's tax credit...the impact it's having on home sales and why some are pushing to extend it...and others pushing to end it. plus...credit rating agencies fall under the microscope as their role in the financial meltdown comes into question. and...we're joined by the rock band kiss...it's more than the make-up. kiss is teaming up with the world's largest retailer wal-mart. it's ahead on this edition of first business. off and running ahead of tools they market action coddle important week for investors with other federal reserve talking about interest rates we have plenty of new housing data as well as on tuesday the market is picking themselves up after the biggest percentage loss since the first of september unless it over to the cme group which ellis is along with us he is with the lynn group and joined frenkel be on the program quicken as you join us here after actually you've been bearish for some time but the selling pressure is continuously been met by buying interest. right there seems to be a huge buying interest we actually saw volume pickup crude is very much trouble side of things last week to a pretty significant fashion when they trade was a little bit lighter and thus the back side of the

jewish holiday but there seems to be a fair amount of interest in these pools scenario where people are technically trading the market higher based on the assumption that you have a significant rebound off the bottom of the recession edition #. it will continue to be case in become such a fundamental what end up driving a technical trade we wouldn't be surprised to see this market move on the to to percent higher. initially in the last couple of weeks we saw the federal reserve very slowly began to withdraw the program is put into place the money market guarantee program has expired were beginning to see little bit less borrowing between the treasury and federal reserve and the market's been and will to take this to push higher. obviously, all eyes are be focused on the fed announcement on wednesday and whether or not they began to hint at what exactly their exit strategy is that what it will look like. there are a couple of interesting things that could spark a be a catalyst to a sell-off in the war really, in october in a technical factor again and a half to do with the marking of third quarter multiform report cards poultry's have to be in and settled friday or monday and after that buying interest is in an old portfolios are marked to market for the third quarter report cards people are going to have to

find a new impetus to get to the market to show returns. you want to talk more about the tax credit for home buyers speaking of october and november and december will have more lincoln intruder talk in a matter of moments. health care reform isn't the only issue on the docket for congress right now, as legislators also face a decision on whether or not to extend a tax incentive that's been key in bringing buyers back to the housing market. earlier this year, congress passed an 8-thousand dollar tax credit for first-time home buyers. it has cost the government 15-billion dollars, more than twice original projections. "its been huge absolutely its made my year." nick libert of axis realty is a proponent of the tax incentive that's set to expire at the end of november. he credits it for helping his business "this year, about 50% of my buyers have qualified for it." and for getting first-time buyers to help kickstart the overall real estate market.

"if you don't have first time home buyers buying those low to mid-end homes, people that want to move out of those homes and upsize can't because they have to find buyers for their home first. roughly 40% of homebuyers this year will qualify for the credit and the national association of realtors believes its contributed to 350-thousand sales that wouldn't have happened otherwise. "rather than using government funds to stimulate the housing market, the government should get out of the housing market all together. instead of leting the economy decide how resources are allocated by the public, its being done by politics." pointing to the past failures of washington's intervention in the housing market with government sponsored entities fannie mae and freddie mac, brian costin of the heartland institute argues against continuing the tax incentive beyond its novemeber deadline. "a stimulus to correct another stimulus is not going to solve your problem. to solve the problem, admit the mistake, get

out of the housing market, and over time, the market will correct itself." to qualify for the full 8- thousand dollar credit, homebuyers must not have owned a home within the past 3 years, and an income below 75-thousand dollars or 150-thousand dollars for a couple. and the transaction itself must close before december 1, that deadline has buyers and realtors scrambling to be under contract by the first or second week of october. "the next 30 days are going to be very busy." a bill currently in the senate would nearly double the credit to 15-thousand dollars, eliminate all income caps and expand it to include all homebuyers, not just firt timers. it is sponsored by a republican and has several democratic cosponsors.

it's only september, yet retailers are already thinking of how to get consumers spending this holiday season. however, a recent study by deloitte finds this year's holiday sales are expected to remain flat compared to last year...around 800-billion dollars. that's still below 2007 spending levels. experts attribute the flat forecast to the bad economy...and though there have been some signs pointing to an economic turnaround...consumers are still dealing with the pressures of unemployment and tightening credit. according to the survey...retailers are preparing for the challenging holiday season by adjusting inventory and closely managing expenses. some are even using the power of technology to help drum of profits by targeting consumers via mobile applications and social networks. by the way, just 93 days left before christmas, which falls on a firday this year. always a mix of fear and greed there is a perennial fear about missing on this rally feeding degree of lincoln ellis of the lynn group back with us or at

the cme group claimed in her last to be left at the top of the show talking about the technical factor the close of the fiscal year from neutral for the bank holding companies question becomes as you mentioned was the catalyst to continue into the fourth quarter for the market? a lot of people are pointing to the continued trouble of proposed billion dollars stimulus package clearly the white house has been on a point there. the continued potential extension last week of the first-time home credit through november perhaps into 2010. there are a lot of government food programs and that are out there that can continue to move this market higher. the question is how this is fundamentally back to the fundamental point out of this means bottom-line growth for u.s. corporations and investors? at the bottom line #we're looking at the 2010 try to compete as a pr #if the topline number to we're coming up with are from the in the low 70's. at the moment the market has priced into something like

$83 of earnings per share. there is a disconnect them with the top earnings trend actual forecast numbers i think the real issue that traders as well as the investors are going to be attuned to hear can be seamlessly passed on to private demand in is just not clear to us that the levels of the market is pricing the renowned will be unattainable in 2010. we will leave it there will lincoln ellis over at the cme group thank you pal. you bet. still to come the rock band kiss and wal-mart teams up...we'll tell you what they're doing. but first...the newest villian in the credit collapse...the credit rating agencies. they're work is under the spotlight...as their stocks are

under pressure.,

one of the many villains in the credit crisis are three companies with the ability to pass judgment on the creditworthiness. standard and poors, moody's and fitch ratings are the three biggest firms that slap ratings on bonds and other securities which are supposed to give investors an idea of how risky the loans are. but as the housing market collapsed, highly rated bonds backed by risky mortgages crashed, bringing the spotlight to the role of these credit rating agencies and the key role they play in the supply of credit. everybody is still trying to find somebody who is really at fault in their credit crisis fiasco. david ruder used to head up the securities and exchange commission under president reagan. that same agency now is trying to reel in these credit rating companies by proposing new disclosure, conflicts of interest and if a ratings company should be more liable for their ratings when the bonds go bad. the propblem is that these agencies gave out very high ratings to securities that should not have had these ratings. we're quite sure they did not have good systems in

place, probably did not do adequate investigation, many have been...with conflicts of interest and were doing shodding work. that's bad but it doesn't...criminal or civil liabilities unless they can show they lied. ruder is referring to a state investigation launched last week by the attorney general of california. the focus of the california probe is to - quote - determine how these agencies could get it so wrong and whether they violated california law in the process - end quote. ruder, the former s- e-c chairman, thinks the california investigation could be an uphill battle to pin anything on the agencies. in this credit crisis the credit rating agencies didn't do a good job. the regulators didn't do a good job. the participants didn't do a good job and by not doing a good job i mean they did not anticipate the housing crisis being as big and broad and as damaging as it was. the shift of focus to the role of the credit rating agencies

has taken a toll on their stock. moody's share price is down 14 percent since the california investigation was launched. the stock of s&p's parent company, mcgraw hill, which includes businessweek magazine is down seven percent over the same three days. online items after the show, head to our website firstbusinessx.com and type in charity to see how one non-profit organization that helps teens is weathering the recession. plus, why uncle sam may help out of work americans receiving unemployment benefits for an additional three months. and...hear why one viewer thinks unemployed parents may be setting a bad example for their children...you can find it all on our website, first businessx.com. and coming up on the show.... we catch up with rock band kiss to discuss music and money and their new venture with the world's biggest retailer...that's coming up next after this in-the-know message.

for 35 years, the rock band kiss has redefined music and money.

the band is best known for its make-up, but it also is a booming business with more than 25-hundred licensed products ranging from video games to board games. and the group is still making music...with its first studio album in 11 years due out next month, exclusively through wal-mart. we spoke with gene simmons, paul stanley and the rest of kiss about its exclusive deal with wal-mart and the business of music and money.

x still on the way in chart talk bit chips have been at or above take a look at the semiconductor sector is been leading the way higher import technology called yearlong and this, office highs the rest of the market has moved lower as well will take a look at semiconductor stocks coming up after this.

the chips have been of little bit talking about semiconductor stocks and won the talk more about this at the chicago board options exchange we have been damaged along with us here as we dive right in your to the chart of the semiconductor

exchange traded fund. what strikes you most about this chart which will be has been a market being sector. customize the tech areas let us down a hole in march and again to push the catalyst in late july to pull the market up even higher and i think this chart looking at the close yesterday at 2546 is really in the middle of the raid if you look at the chart you can see if they're planning sideways for the last month or so routine that 2615 double about one month ago. it peaked my interest because you see in the broad market outpaced is now as the russell the s&p 500 index is going to highs so it's like the city's leading indicator of letting us out of the hole in march and i see it playing out now in training sideways is still an uptrend still seen higher highs and higher lows but however it does look like its feet here and i hate to see it go below the 50 day moving

average coming in around 0.477. that's a line in the same for you to watch old blow that could tell you a short term reversal as long as a whole set of these the momentum of the trend since margins and higher. that's right as long as and host their if you look at around 2477 i think is significant i think a lot of the total from the back- office 2460 here break below their biggest little bit curious particularly because i said i'd like to think of it as a leading indicator number to the largest component of the estimate this on september lows in may be rolling over a little bit too sad to keep an eye on. corporate below 2460 i think we cover that gap at 2250. the move we appreciate it over the chicago board options exchange. we want to hear from you the address comments at first business x. c o m or voiced no wrinkles up at 312660 route 8397. we'll see you online or back here next time thank you for watching everybody. s