thank you for joining us. i'm beejal patel. >> and i'm paul eggers. >> and today we're taking a look at what could shape the headlines in 2010. >> certainly government intervention was a big story in 2009. will that continue in 2010 in quell we will talk about -- we'll talk about climate change and what impact government regulation will have in that area. >> and front and center in 2010, americans are hoping this will be a writer year for jobs. >> and -- a brighter year nor jobs. >> and antitrust outlook, some big merger cases, what impact will regulation have in that space. >> after a blow out year for stocks and some commodities in 2009, what can investors expect in 2010? jack ablin with harris private bank is here with some ideas. jack, where can investors expect the biggest return in 2010. stocks, bonds or other commodities? >> 2010 is going to be in many respect as mirror image of 2009. they have a dominant asset class, is going to be kind of

tricky. my sense is 2010 is going to be a tale of two different markets where the first half of the year we get a lot of momentum, a lot of growth, a continuation of the momentum we enjoyed in 2009. but at some point, we're going to run out 6 valuation. that the market will no longer reflect reality. in fact, once we start to see a pull back in some of the stimulus, i think that investors will start to get concerned and we could see a pull back in stocks some of to answer your question, i will say probably the first half of the year is more equity oriented and the second half of the year is more bond or fixed income oriented. >> talk about specific sectors in the stock market or within equities you think could stand out in 2010. >> sure. at least in the spirit of the first half bullishness i would go with more economically cyclical sectors, like basic materials, consumer

discretionary and industrials. perhaps the second portion of the year we'll want to move into more of a defensive stance, telecome, utilities and health care. >> what investments should we stay away from completely in 2010? >> i think u.s. treasury securities are probably overdone on the yield and we could see continued rate rises there and clearly that will erode principal, but that doesn't necessarily mean we have to count out bonds completely. in fact, i would argue that credit oriented bonds are those maybe with investment grade or even lower credit ratings could actually throve as we start to see some progress brest in the first in the first half of the year. >> since interest rates could rise in 2010, what is your forecast for rates on cds and money markets, when is a good time to start investing in those again? >> cds and money markets clearly have offered no yield and i'm going to say that for

the most part of 2010, we're not going to see too many big increases in yield. the fed certainly does not want to take the punch bowl way early and i think given the fact that our stimulus is starting to wind down on the fiscal side, i do think the fed going to continue to keep the pedal to the metal on the monetary side which means short-term rates will likely stay close to zero for the course of 2010. >> and considering gold has been a really strong performer in 2009, do you think it could continue to gain in 2010? >> now that you mention it, gold is another area i would avoid in 2007. we've had a nice run here, but some of the underpinnings justifying gold are starting to reverse. the fact is that the dollar will likely continue to strengthen, given that is roughly 10% undervalued relative to some of our major trading partners, and also inflation isn't going to be a main concern, at least near

term. >> all right. >> those two could weigh heavily on gold in 2010. >> all right, thank you so much for your insight, jack ablin with harris private bank. >> thank you. >> and coming up on the show in 2010 we could see some developments take place in the climate change debate. we have two opposing viewpoints on how that could take shape. but first, will the new year bring better news in the job market? renee: diabetes scared me to death. there's so much to learn. i just shut down. but liberty walked me through it all ...like when i test ...at night or after i eat ...makes a big difference. vo: a good diet and testing your blood sugar regularly can help you manage-even reduce-the risk of complications. vo: that's why liberty offers accu-chek aviva meter, that lets you test right the first time. vo: if you're over 65, have diabetes and are on medicare... vo: ...call now and we'll send you a free meter. vo: it offers alternate site testing, so you can

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he was no stranger to stardom and the gossip that came with it. "it's very easy for

tabloids to grab onto that and say,'what's the best way we can spin this into a front page story? i know - kirk cameron goes off the religious deep end!' when in actualty it was nothing more than 17-year-old old kid finding something that was worth more tha >> welcome back, everybody. in 2010, americans are hoping the job outlook will be brighter, especially after two years of continuous layoffs, 7 million americans have lost their jobs since the recession started. and john challenger of challenger, gray and christmas is here to talk about his outlook for the year ahead. welcome back. >> nice to be here. >> talk about the unemployment rate at 10%, are we expecting it to peak in 2010 and how much high kur it go? >> i think we will see the peak in 2010. we've gone through a period of quickly-rising unemployment but we're now at the point where the are session is probably over, unemployment is a lagging indicator but it is starting to

come down, it is certainly now at the peak and it is not going to go much higher, maybe a little bit. >> you don't see 11% at all? >> i don't think we're getting there, unless the recession reoccurred and we went back into a double dip, it is not going to happen. >> talk about the string of job losses. in 2009 we saw heavy job losses in january of '09. they continue to eels up significantly, november losing only 11,000 jobs compared to the 700,000 jobs lost in january of 2009. what is the outlook for the pace of the layoffs in 2010? >> i think we're going to continue to see those layoffs also begin to abate or stay down. now this last month, this one in december that, was probably an anomaly, that came down way below expectations, so maybe it will come back up a bit but layoffs are slowing, the pace of job creation is now beginning to offset the layoffs to a much greater degree. >> when do you think we will see better job creation and how robust do you think it would be? like month after month jobs

being created in. >> employers going to be very careful creating jobs. they have 9.2 million people right now in part time jobs who would like full time so they will give more hours to those people first before they really start to create jobs and they've got see the recovery is for real before they do that. i don't think we will see sustained job creation that way outpaces the job losses until at least the second half of 2010. >> okay. let's talk about some positive signs of improvement that we are seeing right now. since july, temporary worker employment has raisen by 117,000. is that trend likely to continue? >> i think so. that is really the key signal that employers are beginning to need workers. they are very thinly staffed, they're cut to the bone so now as the orders start to return they bring on temporary workers first, that is kind 6 like the part time workers, giving them more hours, they are neat going go out and create -- not going to go out and create full-time

jobs until they know it is for real. >> and health care adding 16,000 jobs since the recession starts what, else is like three add jobs. >> we will see growth in education, that has been strong but also in areas like energy, technology and then just global business. you know, the global economy starts to recover, that is not a particular sector because it covers a wide array of businesses but it does help those businesses that have positioned themselves to take advantage of the global market. >> and the worse sectors for jobs in 2010? >> well, it is always hard to say. probably manufacturing continues to take it on the chin. automotive has been hit so hard, it got a little boost from the cash for clunkers program but we know that automotive is still really suffering through deep lows. >> real quick, talk about the trend in wages over the past 12 months. the average hourly earnings have

raisen by 2% system this likely to continue? are we going so see wages continue to rise or flatten out? >> they'll probably rise at that kind of pace, near inflation pace. employees in the driver seat with the number 6 unemployed people so they can strike bargains with people. >> thank you, john challenger with challenger, gray and christmas. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> and still ahead here on "first business", talks continue on capitol hill over the green house gas emissions debate will lawmakers take action in 2010. but first, important antitrust cases that are likely to be decided in the year ahead. it's a revolution in pain relief.

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act daily. >> as 2009 comes to a close, there are some big antitrust cases yet ton to be resolved involving the biggest names in technology and entertainment sectors. spencer waller is with loyola university chicago and he joins us with how these cases could take shape in the next year. spencer, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> start with intel, obviously no stranger to antitrust cases. take a look here, a $1.25 billion settlement in amd in november and fine from the european commission and not ftc is taking aim at intel for anti-competitive practices. what is new with this case in. >> they're one of the leading technology firms it shows renewed interest in monday opization cases involving -- monopoly cases involving united states and europe. we have intel settling with

competitors, appealing the fine in europe, fighting off both state antitrust officials in new york and other states that may join and now the ftc with an administration complaint. >> so administration complaint means it will not be going to a jury, it is just decided within the system, correct? >> first step is, ftc has brought a case under section five of the federal trade commission act alleging allegint intel does is an unfair method of competition it goes an administration law judge and either side can appeal at the federal level. >> looking ahead to between is there a likelihood this will be settled or this case will drag throughout the year? >> it is hard to say, the case has just started but intel looks like they're trying to resolve all of their legal issues by settling with competitors, depends if they can settle with the european union. if they can, they should be able to settle with the federal trade commission. they're not seeking a fine, it is not permitted under the ftc

act, there is no jail time, it is not a criminal case or anything like that and the ftc is not seeking to break up the company, they're seeking to change their business practices. if that is acceptable or an acceptable compromise can be figured out, it could be settle bud i wouldn't effect any time soon. >> and thecom cath, nbc, -- the comcast, nc, unversal, it co federal trade commission or the department of justice. what impact does two reviewers have on this merger? >> first of all, we don't know who the antitrust reviewer is yet, it could be either one of those agencies, although the law doesn't change, it is just which team of lawyers and economists look at the deal. >> a turf battle between the two? >> a little bit that should be resolved fairly quickly and the agency vas timetable under the merger laws to complete the investigation or go to court.

what is complicated is the fcc, federal communications commission, also weighs in on a broader public interest standard that includes antitrust concerns and broader issues about media diversity and anything else they consider to be public interest so it could take a little bit longer, they have two different legal standards to satisfy, and i expect that deal to eventually be cleared as long as the parties are willing to take into account the regulatory concerns that each agency will bring to the table. >> okay. and then finally another antitrust case in the entertainment industry, the ticketmaster-live nation deal, announced in february, now 50 members of congress have written the doj about the deal and there is a new website protesting or involving concerns about the deal, ticketdisaster.org. what impact is this deal having on antitrust behavior? >> this is, i consider them to be probably public enemy number

one now at the justice department. we have a new administration that is looking for a big case to bring. i believe this is going to be the one. it is not their only antitrust concern, they have concerns in the united kingdom, concerns in the european union. they have to make everybody happy or make concessions and somehow still keep this deal alive. what i would guess is, unless they are prepared to make substantial concessions, one might be getting rid of one of their two primary ticketing agencies with direct overlap. plus other thing about the behavior and vertical structure. unless next do this, i believe either the european union will black it in europe or the justice department will go to court and ask a judge to block it. >> very active 2010 for antitrust regulators then. >> very much, and we haven't even talk about the cartel cases with criminal price fixing where the agencies if they can find them, they bring them and put them in jail. >> we will get into that in 2010. spencer waller is a law professor with loyola university

chicago. thanks. >> thank. >> climate change will be a big issue congress will take on in the new year and we'll hear from both sides of the debate coming up. t>ñóñc

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the bill clearly was cobbled together, making sure this interest group got its share and it this one got its share so it is a bill headed for a lot of amendments. on the senate side, subsequent to the house bill passing, the discovery that much of the science underlying the united nations international panel on climate change with the alarmist view of the environment was shown to be misrepresented, doctored, and it just really, a credibility problem has sunk in here that is going to undermine everything in the debate in the senate. i don't think so anything is going to happen in the senate. there is a bill, it hasn't gotten out 6 committee and in spite of president obama's assurances something will happen, i will get doesn't. >> senator john kerry is trying to push this through the senate. >> funs are built on what are president obama's least-sung successes this year. he is on the 11th yard line of

his presidency if he run worse full terms. hiss success in energy and environmental policy is substantial. stimulus put a lot of money in clean technology. >> enormous -- >> let me finish please. the legislation, the waxman-marky legislation. the president in this week year will pass legislation in the senate, he will sign and i think in this next, relatively early in the first six months, and i think it is going to set the u.s. business on a court of unprecedented innovation that i think is going to be, i think the prospects are very good because i think in the first term or the first year he laid the ground work for significant success in this area. >> there are so many big questions surrounding the cap and trade system that is being supported by some lawmakers and that is how to price carbon

emissions and that is something that seems impossible at this point. >> you're exactly right. there is no way to put a price on it until the government comes in and says you may not emit any more carbon than you already have, anything you produce over that you will pay a fine. suddenly carbon does have a value and that is what they want to trade. but all the trading going on in the european union has been fraudulent, misrepresentation. because you can misrepresent what you going to buy, i can misrepresent what i'm going to sell and everybody benefits except the government and taxpayers because they have to pay to subsidize. >> there are a handful of lawmakers in the senate and the house against trade, this system, cap and trade system, against trading the actual carbon emissions permits. how do you think that is going to work in. >> like in the health care bill now, there are certain things that seem sack sacrosanct that y

not be at the end of the day. when you have interested from nike to starbucks, google, saying we want strong senate leadership in action, those corpses are looking for direction -- corporations are looking for direction on a national energy policy that addresses green house gas emissions. what they specifically look like we will find out. but any time you've got large business interest and lots of people looking for a deal, something for something to be done, my assessment is we're going to see change happen. >> what they're looking for is some way to keep competitors at a distance and not allowing new competitors into the market. that is what they're looking for. >> and also the other big issue at the center of this is american jobs. and -- >> jobs to be created. >> but the risk, though that under the cap and trade system could there be a risk that american jobs could leave. >> of course it could. if there is incentive to move your factorty from the united

states to china where they've got supposedly a more -- underneath the cap for emissions, then that factory is indeed going go there. >> why do you believe there will be jobs created. >> fundamentally will is an unprecedented opportunity from eliminating waste in terms of energy efficiency improvements in the building stock and transportation infrastructure, investments in new technology, clean energy technologies, rebuilding our infrastructure built over the last 100, 150 years so it uses as little resource as possible to be productive. i think this is a tremendous opportunity. and the legislation will help in my view. >> we will be watching this issue very closely. thank you so much, dan miller the heartland institute and craig sieben with sieben energy associates, we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> good to be with you. >> thank you so much for watching, everybody. we hope you enjoyed this show and we also hope you stick with us here at "first business" throughout the new year. have a great day.