today on u.s. farm report. it's all ahead on harvest and the finish line is fast approaching. our market experts try to unravel a puzzling grain stocks report and mike hoffman looks for precipitation as many farms dry out. >> hello and welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm john phipps. i think we can talk at the round table about the grain stocks report. normally this check is not a

headline grabber, but this week the corn counters found a few bins of old crop corn that nobody knew were there. in fact, they reported a $350 million-bushels than the trade expected. linda smith has an excellent interview. he was noticeably defensive. confidence is reports is eroding. such indifference could be a liability. time now for the headlines. here's al pell. >> thanks, john. 2009 was a miserable harvest season on many farms, but 2010 is shaping up to be a much different story. let's begin with corn. 27% of the crop had been harvested, up 9 points from the week before and 0 points ahead of last year's pace. growers in indiana and kentucky are leading the charge. at the same time ticking is just getting going in

minnesota, iowa and wisconsin. soybean is moving ahead also. up four points from the week before. southern states are reporting significant progress. harvest season is also progressing nicely in cotton country. as of last week, 19% of the crop had been harvested. 5 points ahead of five-year average. in louisiana, cotton appears to be bouncing back after a number of forgettable years. acreage is up about 250,000 acres this year and yields are coming in strong w. the prices on the upswing, cotton is making a comeback in the bayou state. >> we haven't seen cotton prices like in this a long time. the last three years that the farmers have taken, we need a good yield and a good price.

>> crop watchers say high temperatures throughout the summer helped the crop mature early. harvest should be wrapped up by the middle of october. in southern michigan this week, temperatures were perfect for picking potatoes. with operations in ten states, they're used to make lays potato chips. the company also raises sweet potato, green beans and soybeans. now back to john for crop watch. two very different parts >> crop watch this week takes us to different parts of farm country. usda crop watchers in maine report conditions are very good for potato harvest.

that's in the extreme tip of maine. grains are all harvested, but broccoli picking continues. and in alabama, the lack of rainfall is becoming quite evident. the u.s. drought monitor says every county in the state is classified in some type of drought condition and over a third are called severe or worse. just three monthsing a there was no drought in alabama. when u.s. farm report returns, it's time to talk market. two minutes...please

round table guests today, brian and andy. andy, i know you and brian both were looking at the report. give us what the report did on friday. >> well, pretty much they came up with their stock numbers for the last quarter and they took their stock numbers to 1700. that's a lot more than anyone in the trade expected. that was pretty close to the realm of expectations. the stock reports and what the government does is just a mystery to me. >> so what happened to the prices then? what happened to corn prices? >> well, yesterday corn went down pretty hard, but it was really the next day after. the corn limit went down to finish the week and beans down

50 cents as well. pretty rough day, but the market was leaning supper, super long and did not get the kind of news they wanted. there will be margin calls on monday and liquidation. >> let's go to brian and find out what he thinks about this. >> the market had been quite long with the funds adding positions daily for several weeks. now we have a big surprise in the corn stocks. it was enough to fuel that liquidation and ahead, looks like a busy harvest weekend. we saw things kick in today. i think there's going to be some margin call this weekend and i wouldn't be surprised to see follow through next week. >> next week we're going to -- well, a week ago we were a quarter harvested on corn and with the weather, we've got most of the midwest done by that point in time. so some of the farmers had to

take advantage of those prices close to $5 if not over. >> we heard that farmers did a terrific job of moving their early corn harvest right across the scale, between 5.5-bushels. prices that have never been seen before. >> let's go back to where the government found that extra 300,000-bushels of corn. now, we weren't really happy with the early report that came out earlier this year. we had a big carryover and then all of sand it was gone and we got a big bolt of what we were going to do, and now they found it again. what's going on? i'm not accusing, but it's unusual it goes that much. >> these stock reports have

been treacherous territory for a while. they have a hard time getting a handle on the cattle feeding and the way they put things together. there was a lot of thing things going on in august. i think a lot of the old crop stocks and the new crop got mixed. i think you will see in the december stocks report, it will be bullish, the way this one was bearish. it's going to keep rotating that way. it's hard for them to figure this out. that's the big problem. >> it's hard to figure out where it came from. it was leftover, but it looked like the usage was steady. ethanol was steady. we've actually had increase in exports. i was surprised because i didn't think they could find. >> i you make a real good point. i did the calculation now, based off the stocks report that came out this week and for

corn, it's close to what it was in '80, '09. so we've had residual stabilize or flatten out. you make a good point. the exports are going up and the ethanol is going up, but feeding now, you could argue it has certainly flattened out with the deficiencies. >> well, i haven't noticed that more and more countries around the world are getting -- too. it used to be some of those ethanol plants tried to give them away and now they have value. >> i think the big market is china. i would imagine they would by five times more than last year. >> really? >> at least that. that market, they can combine soybeans and djokovic gs, and it works better than buying corn on water. that's the market that they're very interested in over here. i think that's going to expand

a lot. you look back at that stocks report, it was our lowest since 1950. that doesn't work. >> you don't think that works. >> not so much. >> well, i'll tell you when we come back with our next segment, i'm going to talk about soybeans. we've been talking about corn and wheat, but something i think we should address, and that's what farmers are going to plant next year and how we get to where we need to plant in order to make a profit. we'll be back with more u.s. farm report in just a moment.

this week brian and andy, we were talking about corn

primarily and the fact that the government put out this report and they found 300 million- bushels more and there may be question about the report, but you that's what the market is dealing with at this point in time. let's talk about beans and wheat. beans were always on friday bigtime. wheat was down, but not to the limit. beans were down. anything unusual in the bean report? >> not really in the report, al. it's right along the lines of expectation. what we're hearing on beans is record yields. now, that's not universal across all areas, but most areas are seeing near or above the best bean yields we've seen. i think the combination of the overloaded position, plus the harvest, plus the yield was enough to have a snowball effect. >> anything in the report to reflect wheat?

>> i think the wheat is what it is. we know that. >> following corn, maybe? >> well, we had our big blowout and the carry out in 900 and the next year in 900. we looked at beans and everybody assumed this bad carryout was going to be a problem for price, and they overperformed like they always do. i think part of it is china is was on the hook, you need to buy a bunch of corn and then they thought maybe we should buy more beans that. 's what you're going to see. you're going to see a larger bean demand. i think that's one of the reasons these beans have been so firm. even with the big yields. the market should have been going down. >> let's talk about other crops we normally don't talk about. cotton. cotton is up to the highest in several years. that mean that a lot of those

cotton producers are going to be thinking about maybe planting more cotton and not soybeans next year. >> we haven't talked about this in a couple of years, but to the degree that tight stocks and beans, oak ra, there's a tighter supply for corns. there's an acreage battle brewing for 2011. there's all sorts of things, dynamics that are playing into the 2011 growing season. we think that presents opportunities for farmers and good opportunities to look at a selection, if you will, of what you want to plant. >> you mentioned that sugar prices are going through the roof. >> with sugar, the reason it's gone up so much is the south china drought earlier this year. so they're essentially ready to

run out of sugar this year, and the same thing with cotton. they need brazil to help them out and produce a bunch of sugar and cotton this year. i think that's helped the price and it's been to our benefit if you have anybody that's dealing with those two markets. >> just kind of a quick question at this point in time. do you think the funds are involved in all of these markets and helped prop them up or is it the end users that are making these prices go that high? >> i think there's a larger amount of participation in all of these markets rite markets -- right now. >> i think if they funneled it into corn and we're not even at the highest price. they're looking at the things, like gold, that's at the highest price ever, like corn, that's been building and stuff it into that. >> we have a minute. how can a producer take advantage of these prices when

they go higher than he ever thought they would go. >> if you're looking at pricing your 2011 crops, make sure you lock down all sides of the equation. that's not only the price, but the input costs. there's incidents in the past where they're on one side or the other. it's important to lock down both sides because the one side you don't lock down can work against you and blow up. >> can you do the same thing for 2012? >> no. it's harder to do there. i think you can buy calls for 2011 and sit on those for the sum yes. for being here today. , we'll be back with u.s. farm report.

the drought monitor shows we continue to be dry in the southern half of the mississippi valley. you can see indiana with an

extreme drought. also up in georgia and even though it still shows dry on the drought monitor, i suspect this will change next week after all the rain that's fallen through this area. some areas have become dryer and dryer over the past few weeks. let's check things out on the jet stream. we're going to have a pretty good trough over new england. that will cause scattered showers. it's still going to be pretty chilly from the great lakes into new england and pretty cool all the way into northern florida with this type of jet stream. wes move through time, you can see the ridge builds back up through the ohio ohio valley and great lakes. you can see a model over the southwest, that will be slow to move, but it will also cause scattered showers. let's check the maps.

on monday we'll see a storm system headed up the eastern seaboard again. some showers, not like last week, though. most of the rain is going to be out west. there will be areas of showers, maybe a thunder shower in some areas. cool conditions through the middle of the country, although warmer than you're going to see as we head through the west of this weekend. threw the rest of the great lakes, there's still a chance of showers as the storm system gets caught up in that area. another cold front that causes showers through new england and that stalls in the southwest with still some energy that way. it means you're still going to be seeing some scattered showers from texas into this region.

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guess what the hot new trend in grain farming is around my part of the world. tillage. after several years of using less tillage, farmers in my area are finding soil is compacted. it hurt corn yields this year. at the same time, an early harvest had allowed ripping up of those fields. so deep tillage is all the rage. i had a chance to see the compaction firsthand. i'm joining my neighbors to try and remove some of the structural damage from extremely wet seasons. we often forget how several inches of water standing for a week can compress soil. all this tillage runs count tore the trend of -- in the last few years. farmers have often pointed out

that no till has reduced soil erosion. but not all soil in all places growing all crops work with this technique n. illinois, no till seems to level off at 15% and can be dropping now. but the evidence on my farm is clear. the the boulders we're pulling up confirm it. there are ways to do tillage that minimize the erosion problem as well. no till will remain a strategy to soils at the right sometime. but we must consider a wide range of production practices. please let us know what you think. send e-mails to usfarmreport.com or call and leave us a voice mail. coming up in our next half hour, how a grain bin became a tourist attraction. stay with us. the 2nd half of farm report is coming right up

did you, uh, get a call from coach about those kids who were caught drinking? not our guys. they know better. yeah. they know better. heads up, sport! today on u.s. farm report. new legislation extends and

expands mandatory price reporting for livestock. a micro farm in the nation's capital tells the story of wheat production. hello and welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm john phipps. the relentless stress of warm, dry weather is helping many producers finish harvest in record time. in fact, some of my neighbors have parked the combine and will soon be finish with fall tillage as well, which leads to the interesting question. what to do for the next six months? winter will be unusually long if we define it between the end of harvest and beginning of

planting. this is remarkable because last year the gap between harvest and planting was the shortest we had ever known. i'm afraid we're losing our sense of rhythm. let's get started with the headlines and al pell. >> president obama puts his signature on a mandatory price bill. it's intended to make sure producers are getting fair market value for their livestock. it requires usda to establish a price report system for the dairy industry. it also includes a standard of pressure reporting. it extends it through september of 2015. now while it regularly hosts rallies and lots of tourists, the national mall has never been primed as crop land. they recently brought a quarter acre of the amber waves to the state capitol.

the goal is to educate legislators on the u.s. economy. >> most americans are two generation away from the farm. they don't know where the food comes from. we want them to have a better appreciation and understanding of where we come from, all the intensive steps that it goes through to give the consumer great food. >> it really shows me how much wheat is used. i didn't know it's in toothpaste and shampoo. it's a lot. it takes most food and everything is made out of wheat. >> the event featured wheat production, milling, live baking demonstration and nutrition advice. a similar even was held in new york city in 2008. >> what's believed to be the first of its kind report, researchers at -- university are putting a price tag on

obesity in america. it's built on loss of productivity and medical expenditures, for women, it's $5,000 per year, about double the cost for men. obesity is linked to 150 billion health care costs annually. that's it for news. time now for the national forecast from meteorologist mike hoffman. well, big changes in the jet stream over the past couple of weeks. we're now seeing not a zonal flow, but as we move into this first full week of october, we're going to see a big trough out west, a trough to start the ridge in the east. for this time of year, even cooled down into the southeast because of that jet stream, you can see a lot of rain out west.

there's going to be areas of showers and because of that cut off low we're still going to see some scattered showers out that way, even into the western plains. ridgeville is back into the great lakes. we'll call it cool in those areas, but it will be warmer than you've seen this weekend. from the eastern great lakes and new england, some scattered showers there and as we head into the day, showers in texas and oklahoma. back in the four corner region. energy out there with a trough system and then minor weather. we'll go to october 10th october 10th through the 16 16th. from the ohio valley all the way to the gulf coast, texas, eastern kansas and much of the southwest and even up into oregon and southern idaho.

precipitation next week above normal from missouri, southward and eastward all the way to the eastern seaboard. let's go out through the next 30 days. there's the temperatures from texas to great lakes. precipitation, below normal in the middle of the country. john? >> the ultimate farm quest series is brought to you by combine during harvest, >> when you're running your combine during harvest, efficiently is critical. in today's farm quest update, we'll see how -- hired hand has enjoyed good conditions to run the combine this fall that i

mean to era testing an after market corn head. as part of the plan, doug wants to see if the combine can run for efficiently and improve the bottom line. >> we're running about five or six-tenths of an hour faster. when you're running five and a half miles an hour, you're talking about gain in efficiency as far as the speed. theoretically, we should be able to run about 10% more acres of corn through in one day. get fewer hours on our combine and we're running the combine at peak efficiency. the combine is set up -- they have systems for combines today and we use this system that keeps our combine at the optimum level. it actually speeds itself up and slows itself down to keep

completely full at all times. >> for more about the rupp ñiññ www.ultimatefarmquest.com. we're off to iowa spirit of the heartland is next. traveler who

likes to take the road less traveled in search of something different, have we got a stop for you. >> if you're a traveler who likes to try something different. next time you head to iowa, visit primgar. it's here you'll find a hotel like no other. we'll go for a tour.

>> had to have a fridge. keep the beverages cool. >> on the inside it has all the comforts of a high-end hotel, but take one step outside and it quickly becomes clear this isn't the hilton. >> as owners of the local co- op, they had a few spare grain bins around. they converted one of them into a hotel room. >> as you get older, you get tired of scooping them out. >> don't let the rust streaks on the roof fool you. from the high def tvs tvs to the heated hard wood floors, they've spare nod expense. >> it looks like five-star accommodations. >> it turned out nicer than we thought it would. >> you hate to cut corners, so to speak. >> there are no corners. >> the grain men hotel has a

shower, water softener. it used to hold corn and soybeans. >> people come in and say i scoopd scoopd this bin out a lot of times. >> it's luxury living inside these walls, but step outside and you're on a deck with a view. they call this hecklers deck. five bucks says you miss that putt. wow. double or nothing. >> do the golfers know this now when they tee off on 8 that there could be trouble. >> if there's people up there, they're hopeing they get a good shot. >> if you're look for a get away with a rustic twist, this barnyard bungalow may fit the

bill. and bring your clubs. >> the edwards brothers named the hotel bill's cabin after their late father who loved golf. it will cost you $130 for the first night and $100 for each night thereafter.

punching a time clock is common at many places of punching a time clock is common at many places of employment, but it's a different story on the farm.

baxter black tells us why. >> have you ever heard a farmer say, my gosh, i'm going to be late for work? not hardly. there's a different cadence to a farmer's life. they march to a different drummer. it's one of the distinctions between urban and country. it's 8-5 versus dawn to dusk. things revolve around a man maid schedule, 40 hour week, 8- 5, time and a half. those are alien concepts on the farm. cows are up at the crack of dawn. horses are in the passure grazing as soon as it's light. dogs may oversleep, but cats always do. they've had to adjust our times to ours. farmers set their body time on daylight and dark. now, we eat when it's noon, not

when we're hungry. we quit when it's five, not when we're tired. we don't trips around the neighborhood asking for candy. when nature is added to the equation, animals, weather, seasons, and the chaos that comes with it, the clock goes out the window. ask anybody who farms who wakes up at 6:00 a.m., checking the stock, getting the kids off to school and getting out by 7:30, anything can happen. the fence is down and the cows are grazing. the gate is open and the horse is in the grain barrel. there are two dead sheep in the lot surrounded by coyote tracks. somebody left the stock water

running. the feed truck has a flat tire and you don't have time for this, you will be late for work. in conclusion, if there is any blessing in living life on dawn to dusk schedule, it's the farmers never have to worry about overtime. this is baxter black from out there. >> baxter will join us again next week. check out www.baxterblack.com and you can find his work online. when we come back, tractor tales features a classic. tractor tales this week takes us to central we'll have the country church salute. michigan to meet

an avid international collector... tractor tales this week takes us to michigan to meet an avid collector. >> this is my wife's favorite tractor because it's hers. this is one of the more rare ones. it has an electric start and a generator. i heard about it being for sale and i went over and saw the guy. he was about 80 years old and was starting to reduce his collection and told me what he wanted for it. i could see it was in real good shape. i bought it and restored it and this is what you see today. in the '30s, this was used for row crop. they would cut hey and mow hey and that kind of stuff.

electric start was a big deal because most of them were hand cranks. the danger with that was if it kicked back on you, i could break your hand or arm. it was too expensive for a lot of guys in those days. it's 113 or 114 cubic inch. 14 horses is what they were rated at. it's not as good as the new tractors. it's one of my favorites. >> the f series tractors were built from 1932 to 1939. they were planted deep blue and gray and then the color was changed to farmal read. we travel to the lonestar state for our first country church

salute. today we honor the st. mary church. founded by several german and austrian people. the first church in 1969 and then 1876. it's known as the queen of the painted churches and is listed in the national regular industry of historic places. our second church is the united methodist church in melvin, iowa. john smith started in it -- that structure was replaced in 1960. membership is about 100 and the congregation is led by david finely. as always we would like to learn about your home church as well.

salutes can be sent to the address on screen. stay with us, the mail bag is next. coming home can be hard if you're a veteran of iraq or afghanistan. you may feel like you're all alone. but you're not alone. at iava.org, your fellow vets are all around you.

join our free online community. get the resources you need and connect to other vets who know where you're ng from. weekly look

inside the farm time now for weekly look inside the old farm report mail bag. dawn m has some advice for my commentaries. moron, the earth has been hit by asteroids many times. check your facts facts before you open up your big mouth again. thank you for writing. the statement is regarding my commentary about the ag bio terrorist threat. the threat you describe may be possible, but i rank it with the earth getting hit with an asteroid. you're correct. the earth has been hit before and because of the geologic record, we've been able to assess what that risk is. large aster roids which can cause significant damage are

over 1 kilometer in diameter. i was referring to large aster roids since smaller stuff is normally just called meteors. risk assessment is best done by comparison. the odds of devising a genetic soybean time bomb and deploying it across the fields of america is in the same general neighborhood of an asteroid impact, in my opinion, something that should be very far down on our worry list. in fact, since the lifetime odds of dieing in an airline crash are 1 in 10,000, and i fly without undue anxiety, i use that number for reference. the threat of bio terrorist beans or asteroids is smaller. pleat check out info on your website. send comments to info at

usfarmreport.com or -- for al and mike. thank you for watching u.s. farm report. watch us next week, we'll be working to do even better.