farmers who have wondered what might happen if all the outside moppy decided to leave may have seen the answer. the fundamentals are still not showing over supply but demand rationing is happening. our market experts will have more on this in a moment but to me it looks like a significant opportunity for grain users to snap up bargins at the expension of nervous commodity traders. >> facing the pressure of a cost cutting congress a variety of ideas on how to best write the next farm bill are rolling in. the american soybean association release its proposal this week. asa called it is risk management for america's farmers program or rmaf. the asa president who farms in indiana said it is commodity specific with revenue and yield bench mark for individual farmers. those marks are based on historical yields and prices and not on yields found at

county, district or state levels. asa said it would cost significantly less than existing acre, share and direct payment programs. the national corn grower association revealed its plans two weeks ago. it would change and replace the existing acre program. it also replaces the existing direct payment programs. last week i was in illinois at a farm where harvest is in high gear. effective this weekend they are a new president of ncga. we discussed his new role and the importance of shepparding the next farm bill. >> upcoming farm bill will be so important. the budget concerns we are facing if -- we need to make sure we have a strong crop insurance policy and on top of that a revenue insurance policy called adap which we are working on. that is my number one primary

goal because that affects not only corn farmers but a lot of farmers. >> in case are you wondering he is quite pleased with his yield yield so far considering the growing season. rice harvest is more than half done. most of the nation's rice is grown in arkansas. during an average year they plant about 300,000 acres. we talked to growers in cross county arkansas. they said yields will be about average at best. in most cases they are down 25%. >> we started out, we got the very small window for rice in march and then we got wet and didn't get another window for a lot of guys until the end of may. stayed well for april and most of may and when it dried up we stayed -- we had record heat and went through a bad drought through the month of june and july. >> he said the soybean crop

looks better. the soy crop will be good but not a record. those are the headlines, now back to john for crop watch. >> . >> okay. crop watch this week. in barber county kansas a grower said wheat drilling has barely started. he said conventional tillers and no tillers alike are both facing is no subsoil moisture to carry the crop in to the winter months. a producer in walsh county north dakota said weather moved in that made for beautiful harvest days. he said the wheat lost test weight but moisture levels down. in jefferson county georgia the fsa office said recent showers been benefited the count yes. cattle men were rushing to plant winter grazing crops and peanut growers said the moisture helped make peanut digging easier. when we come back al

returns to talk market was bob and mike. our up to the myanmar quiet wrap begins in just two minutes. please stay with us.

. our round table guest. gentlemen, fridays report was really a report, give us a quick summary, what happened? >> the report came in 166 million more than trade expectations and the market was already fragile, bean number was -- it was drug down by beans. wheat was okay but was drug down by corn. the market was in free fall. in the last 23 days we have taken corn from $7.77 to $6.92

i think was the low today. we have now -- pretty much wiped out the last six months and the bulls heads are ringing, the cash flow is hurt. >> the farmers in the middle of harvest. seems like it's a surprise. i don't think anybody thought it would go this low. in term --. >> when you get into the number itself looks like the u.s.d.a. over estimated last year's crop, ethanol and they played with the feed uses but -- this was an -- reports back in the balance. now you have the october report next week in two weeks as well --. >> seven trading days. >> the market will be close that monday. the bears -- then taking money goes sideline and wait for the report. >> don't know what will happen. you hang on, i will talk to this man. you are a technical trader. did you see this coming?

>> no. i didn't catch the down. the markets -- this past summer, this is the 4th one. every time him on the show we have a crash. it does tend to come backn. liquidation is at a point where -- about as low as it gets, over the past summer. i would say that most of the selling is probably behind us. you can't count on it and i don't think the market is as negative as it appears to be at the close of this friday. >> when -- i was going to call you a positive trader. bob has been on the bear side. how can you -- how can what you look at in terms of technical, say what you are saying, there will be feeling there. >> the funds have been the big pusher up also. they buy a lot and they -- the market goes up, they sell a lot and it comes down.

when they sell a lot they get to a level about -- 100,000 contracts and that's about as much as they tear back the positions. that's about where they are at now. they are probably not going to pare back much. on the one side probably a bulk of the celling behind us. does that mean the market will take off to the upside? no not necessarily. i just don't think you have the big liquidation. it's behind. >> we talk about black swan, looks like we had two. was it -- six weeks ago or less we started having trouble in europe and that's still not really settled yet and we blamed all the problems on the funds bob and what was happening in europe, it was the prices and -- with little about our yield and what we were going to have as supply. now we are talking about supply. >> the report -- friday wasn't really a pessimistic as the 40- cent. we start looking at the carry

all. progress -- i was a bear and was kind of yelled at. 2012, just -- the numbers down. the producer like a feed buyer. he can buy corn almost at the cost production. why buy the land when you can buy it at the cost production. eat either it has to come down or i think the feed buyer should start getting prepared to by a buyer over the next two to three weeks. >> all end users will be in that situation. that's what you are talking about. when we come back i will talk about when the guys will stop planting corn and plant something else when we return with more in just a moment.

. our guest today, bob, and mike flores, i told bob i will go right to you and -- when will producers get their pencils together on determining how much they can afford to plant next year? >> already two things, its cash rents very been hearing this before the break were very high, bids coming in by landlords, cash rents and fertilizer prices have to come down now because the cost production for a lot is going to be in the $5.25 production. either the cash rents have to come down or -- they are seeing a lot of corn after corn. i see a lot of guys wanting to go to 1-4, 1-5 rotation. those years where they row indicate they see a positive bounce. >> yeah, 40, 50, bushels sometimes. >> we are heading the direction where guys not going

to change their mixes because of the rotation and we are not going to buy acres like we thought we could in april and may. so that spread between corn and bed beans could get blown up but i don't think you can take corn to much below $5.50 and get 94 million acres next year. >> let's go -- does what he is saying make sense? you said off camera you thought we were probably going to be in the five dollar range. >> i think -- i think we will be at a higher range but we -- really since around april, may, we have had this big drop in the market. you know -- $1.50 swings back and forth. to me, that is just the markets just -- rejected 7, 8-dollar corp. but also 6-dollar corn. it's trying to find a space. i think this is a multiyear bull market. even when we come down like we have we are still making higher

loads. we never go as well as we did before and then we go make new highs. >> we are still in the pattern. i think six months from now we are be in another up trend. huge demand, you can make a lot of money, livestock prices at all time highs here, exports pick up as prices come down. the use for corn is not going away, it's justin creasing, we have a small storage and i don't see -- borrowing that -- any long term downside. >> if live stock price is higher it's positive for livestock. >> and especially the chicken people are expert buyers, like i have heard from a good trend, east coast the high corn prices, this summer caused the wheat -- the chicken producers to get wheat. we are getting wheat from

russia. we are getting -- high price, best year for high price prices is high prices. when corn gets back to eight dollars again which i think will happen -- here is the problem -- the black sea area increase in wheat production, china wants morrissey verse ty in the feed supply and i think they will rely on wheat. we have to watch it. wheat will be the biggest competing for corn because of all the global wheat supplies. overall i don't -- the market below five, wheat can't compete above 7. we will raining bound in this new range. >> every year in the middle of the harvest we look to harvests go down. when that happens our international buyers look to the united states. china and the other country that need the products will they be buying as much at these

low prices in. >> they did last time. they bought a lot of corn this summer on the last break we had, i would think that would show up again. i haven't heard they bought anything, that's usually what happens though. so -- yeah, demand shows up at lower prices. >> china, there is a lot of stories, china will be up between four to five million metric tons above expectations. i think over the next three weeks you will hear a lot of unknown sales and a lot of will be back to china. we have to watch -- the feet rate. a lot will come out of ar gentina. yes, it's going to happen. that is what -- will lead us out of the bottom and the bin door is shutting. farmers at this point if you have grain in the bin unsold have you to focus on put in the bin and forget about it. you know -- now is not the time to panic and sell everything. >> thank you.

both of you for being here. we will be back with more in just a moment . mike hoffman with weather. good thing you told me about that storm that wouldn't move. i thought there was a rip in space time and i was in a time loop. same then over and over. >> week before it started moving.

>> and didn't even get much rain. >> some did. we are be lookinga at the drought monitor. the area that really needed rain didn't get it. obviously from that storm system. it did help parts of the great lakes but from southern iowa into southern illinois and indiana those areas got smaller amounts generally out of that. the real bad areas obviously are from southern kansas down to the mexican border. those areas just continue to basically have a horrible situation and unless we get a change in the weather pattern which we don't expect, you know it's real yes just going to turn into a disaster into next year. we can always hope. here is the jet stream into monday. pretty good cut off though this one won't sit there to long. ridge builds into the plains and the great lakes and that will give you a nice warm up for several days the way it

looks, this does start to develop and move into the northern plains. that will start to cool things down and bring a little moisture into those areas as well. we see a weak cool front in to the northern plain states, probably stalling out. i don't see a lot coming to far south. it'll continue to warm up, be mild across the great lakes even on monday. kind of chilly where it's raining in new england. scattered showers and thunderstorms, south florida but that's because the cold front hit and miss afternoon variety, the thunderstorms in the southwest and the cold front out west will bring rain. that front moves in to the central and northern rockies, areas of showers then. the northern two thirds of the rockies, shower activity in to the western great lake was the warm front and comes back north. it tries to keep it on the chilly side in new england. then even you folks start to warm up as high pressure dominates in the southern

mississippi valley into the northeast. this next cold front, some models bring it a little faster but looks like it'll head in to the plains as we head toward the latter parts of the week. more in the long term in the next half hour

. increasingly hypped tell te no, ma'am guilty has created problems, simple straight forward solutions yield the wrong results this is in part boss because of more forces than we can see. i think it mostly is due to reluctance to do the hard work necessary to understand the causes of complex problem that now face us. one of these is the idea of food miles. how far food is transported from the producer to consumer.

common sense would say nearby producer dear sir produce food but more efficiently. in several studies this is anything but obvious. for example it's more efficient for people in britain to eat lamb from new zealand than from their own country. this is mostly due to the method of raids raising lamb and how efficient far off transport is. it's why cars made in mexico and why we can take corn to china cheaper chinese farmers. food miles are indicated in the price. that said we are big fans of our local farmers market. the advantages there are freshness and flavor, not necessarily a lower carbon foot print and rather than counting food miles, i support more accurate energy pricing. let us know what you think.

send e-mails to mailbag at united states farm report.com or call and leave us a vote mail. coming up in the next half hour, how an olive tree helped a farm family build it's legacy. stay with us, the second half is coming right up. . united state . today on united states farm

report a unique wisconsin program aims to train the next generation of dairy producers. food prices continue to climb. and a remarkable family farm helps bring america's growing olive oil industry up to speed. . >> united states farm report brought to you by the enlist weed control system and by chevy and their award winning cars, trucks and crossovers. . hello, welcome to united states farm report. i have noticed in the last few years how increased concentration of agriculture production local eyes the impact of bad events. this week the canteloupe contamination program has devastated one colorado community. also remember the pumpkin

famine. for all the about to be efficient the risk of huge loss due to a local problem with weather or disease is large. i don't know if this risk is worth worrying about but i suspect spot shortages will make our lives more complicated. let's get started al and the headlines. >> outbreak of lysteria associated canteloupe is considered the worst in the united states in a decade and federal health firms say it's not over. the head of the cdc said the outbreak has caused 16 deaths and 72 ill in this, it came from jensen farms in colorado. they shipped out more than 300,000 crates which contained from five to 15melons. the last was on september 20. the fda said this was the first known case in the fruit.

a. a vegan group is suing saying organized dairy herd buy outs are price fixing. at issue is them working together which is run by the national milk producer federation. the buy outs took 500,000 cows out of production. the group filed a class action suit this week, alleging that the cow culling lets dairy farmers earn $9 billion more in revenue. it alleges cwt targeted smaller farmers to cull their herds and lets business giants to unfairly increase profits. food prices will continue to rise next year but not as fasts this year. that's according to the latest data from the agriculture department. u.s.d.a.'s economic research service said there is mixed news when it comes to next year's food prices. the bad news, store prices will go up. in 2011 the consumer prize index showed prices up three

and a half to 4.5%, next year it won't be as steep. >> it's good news in that consumers shouldn't expect prices to increase with the same spike. >> 2012 we are looking for food price inflation to continue but we are projecting the overall rate of food price inflation to slow down in 2012 and to approach more normal rates. >> and he said those normal rates are between three and 4%. he said ers is watching the meats section which led the charge among food categories. he expects bread and cereal price also rise more than had been expected. mike hoffman with the national forecast. >> well that cold shot of air that came in late last week and into the weekend and the great lake social security now into

new england with showers in that area. look at that ridge which means we will have a dramatic warm up gena cross the plain states, eventually into the great lakes and the ohio valley. mildler air coming in. showers in out west again with another cold front and that will be a pretty good trough. may take a little while to get going. the chilly air starts to come in for the northern did central rockies. stays dry across most of the plain states, that's bad news for most of the southern plains, i don't see any mouse talk might be hit and miss in south texas. you can see there and parts of new mexico the ridge builds in to the great lakes, that warms things up there and by friday it's over the great lakes, it looks like a very warm day for most of that area down to the gulf. scattered showers and thunderstorms for florida, parts of south and west texas and into new mexico. there is some hope for a few spots there but not a drought

breaker by any stretch. showers along with a cold front come across in to the northwest eastern plain states through the etched of the week and into the weekend. the forecast for next week, from the 9th of october through the 15th. still above normal fort eastern two thirds. florida should be near normal. be lue for the northwest eastern portions, from central california northward up to along the west coast. as far as precipitation, below normal from the southeast right across the drought areas of southern kansas, oklahoma, texas into the desert southwest, above normal for the norther central great lakes back into the northwest eastern parts of the country. as far as the 30 day outlook, we are looking at above normal for texas, all the way through the tennessee valley, ohio valley in to the great lakes, same thing across the northern plains in to the desert southwest. ly go below normal along the eastern seaboard over the next

30 days, most of the country expected to be warm and dry. that is not good for the drought areas, as well as the great lakes, it's -- the parts of those area that didn't get the rain in the storm last week are probably going to be dry as well. looks above normal in the southeast and of course you have -- the tropical storm and hurricane potential those areas. >> its been disappointing the tropical storms, didn't see much from them. >> and we need it into texas. >> spirit of the heart land is next.

american agriculture comes in all shapes in agriculture comes in all shapes in sizes...esp . american agriculture comes in all shapes and sizes, especially in a state like california. it's there that you will find a 4th generation farm that can thank a tiny fruit for its success. clinton takes us there. >> reporter: tucked in to the northern california countryside is the town of corning.

generations have made their living off the fruit of the land, more specifically, the fruit of the olive tree. olive city is now home to the lucero olive company. it's bile age business on the branching of a family legacy. >> my grandfather on my mom's side had a nursery for 26 years, a lot of them here are from his nursery which is kind of funny. >> reporter: in fact both sides of the founder's family have an olive connection. as the 4th generation in the boys he comes by his passion naturally. >> my dad's dad, my grandfather tony got us all in. if he hadn't started doing that 47 years ago we wouldn't be doing it today. >> reporter: today they are taking the industry by surprise from traditional extra virgin. >> this is the most unique

one. we got an award over in israel door this. >> reporter: to citrus, even chocolate flavored. >> it's flavoring inside the olive oil so it's no extra calories and you get the benefit of the extra virgin. >> reporter: yet this business is a second career. he started in the working world with a degree from cal poly in engineering. >> right before my first year was supposed to come to a close, about a week they said we will lay you off. we don't have -- we don't have the room, the money and everything went back that -- i was going back to japan because it was a japan based company. >> reporter: that life changing event pushed him back into the comfort of the family business. six years later he has taken one family's passion and is bottling into a successl business. >> we grow and produce a bit of our own. we have become one of the

biggest buyers for it. >> reporter: he is already planning for growth. business partners adding 300 acres which would increase production by 15 to 30,000 gallons a year. production capacity he has already planned for and a big change from where he started. >> we started in his garage, i would go out. they would go out in the middle of the night and have to bottle up cases and ship it out. >> reporter: it's that family support he holds up as the reason his trip has gone this far. >> we have been out picking them, dumping boxes, knocking trees. i try to stay away from here because it means work. >> joking or not this father and family are doing what it takes to see the next generation

find it's nich. >> i fought in at the right time with the industry just taking off. it's something that is a passion of mine and i love what i do and i can't control myself because i still -- i'm compelled to continue pushing this thing forward. >> for the united states farm report. >> they are routinely honored by the industry. the oil has take inin 120 statewide and international awards since 2005. gardening season is coming to a close for many but when you want a way to get attention next year you may get help from the post office. that story next weekend on united states farm report. >> still to come on-the-job training for the next generation of dairy producers. we are off to wisconsin next. . >> miss any of the show in head to united states farm report.com to watch the program online. united states farm report, the spirit of the countryside. graduates

eventually learn, its hard to find a job without real . as most young graduates learn it's hard to find a job without real world experience . that's why internships so valuable. the same is true for licensed cheese work in wisconsin. in this report from wisconsin dairy news how one family is taking on interns and helping train the next generation of cheese makers. >> becoming a licensed wisconsin cheese maker is a long procease. aside from all the course work, it can be a bit daunting. >> it was really hard, people willing to hire a temporary worker. >> they offer the chance to hone skills. >> the future is depend

president on new people entering. >> reporter: in 2000 the family went on a value rather than volume model for the farm. they decided to buy a cheese plant. >> struck me that where do they come from and how do they get the license and then become employed in a setting like ours? >> so they started offering internships to help people fill their hours and gain experience. for francis it was the right fit. >> we always had fresh milk and i wanted to learn how to make cheese. >> two years ago he started making cheese. on a friend's suggestion he went to the united states championship cheese contest in green bay where his passion for cheese was i go setoff. >> that's where my passion really is. >> reporter: because of the family he is well on his way.

that is wisconsin darey news. >> also in wisconsin, the world dairy expo starts in madison this week. our partners at dairy today will have complete online coverage throughout the week. when we come back its time for tractor tales and the country church salute. please stay with us.

announcer: when you earn your ged diploma, the barriers in your life fall. take the first step and get free ged information in your area at 1-877-38-your-ged, or yourged.org. earn your ged diploma and begin your brighter future. birthday next

week. so happy birthday to you. . i you are celebrate age big birthday and i guess the tractor is marking an anniversary to. >> beck's seeds of atlanta indiana is celebrating it's 75th anniversary. beck's -- serves multiple states. last month they hosted their yearly day, the president was presented with aging iron, a gift from his children. it brought back memories, with talked to him and his son scott. >> we had this old farm f20 and is always sat in the old hog barn, never ran. it's the first that i learned to drive on. everybody has a memory of when they learned to drive something. i have a memory of that f20, my

grandfather let me drive. >> my dad said when i retire i might like to restore that. well, i knew that part of that was true. that he liked to have it restored but i don't think he -- is the type that was going to retire. >> i decided that wasn't a possibility because i like working so i may not retire and i don't know how to fix a tractor. i know how to drive and farm but not painting tractors. >> so he with had arranged for this tractor to be restored as a gift to him for our 75th anniversary and we were able to keep it a surprise, the employees kept it a surprise. it was a real special event. the first morning to be able to present that to him without him having any idea of what was happening. >> it's the original tractor. i learned drive it and it just happens to be the same as the

75th anniversary. we will keep that. it means a lot to us. >> also on tractor tale this is week we have some sad news to report. collector mark upa of belt lanes iowa was paralyzed after being struck by a tree limb. we had him on tractor tails in july of 2008. he loved his 1940 tractor. they had a fundraiser to help with expenses. they will have another event on the 19th of november. we will post a lining on our home page for more information. and now to today's country church salute. first we would like to say hello to ohio. this year the church is marking 150 years of ministry. in 1861, 25 families formed the church. services were done in german and continued until 1954. the present church is built

using ohio limestone and was dedicated in 1909. many the present pastor is pastor matthew. thank you to renee for the story. our second church is trinity lutheran. the church is celebrating 75 years. it was organized in 1936 as a member of the missouri senate. the church under the helm of ref ran e nordon. the next pastor retired after 43 years. pastor brian is the current pastor. as always we want to learn about your home church as well. salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us, mailbag is next. >> country church salute is brought to you by farmers feeding the world. agriculture leading the way and feeding a hungry planet. learn more, give, dream huge

with us.

. time for a weekly look inside the old farm report mailbag. bud palin has a question about farm subsides. i really appreciate your comments and who like to heary thoughts about the expense and value received from farm subsides. i have commented several times on subsides but your question is timely. the answer depends on your perspective. as a grain farmer what is not to love about farm subsides 70 now when i can send someone down to the fsa office to do the paperwork. i have about $23 an acre for having a temperature of 98 degrees and not doing stupid things to my farm like plowing up fragile soil. for the rest of america and most other farmers the picture is reversed.

to be sure the cost is small, a -- but over millions of taxpayers it's billions of dollars. what they get in return is vague. farm program payments no longer have much effect on how much or what is produced and despite efforts to link them there is no evidence they are safer or more abundant. economists are hard pressed to find any evidence they affect food prices. the bottom line for me is a perfect scam for my profession, a legal skimming of tax revenue in exchange for what i would be doing any way. despite this i amused to watch some knuckle under to the agriculture subsides lobby. as always we want to hear from you. send comments to mailbag at united states farm report.com. or leave us a voicemail at 800- 792-4329. for all of us, thank you

for watching, united states farm report. be sure to join us again next week. we will work to do even better. . united states

announcer: when you earn your ged diploma, the barriers in your life fall. take the first step and get free ged information in your area at 1-877-38-your-ged, or yourged.org. earn your ged diploma and begin your brighter future.