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. today on united states farm report. the 2011 corn crop continues to shrink but so does demand movement watered down livestock marketing rules. and our market a sift look at a sluggish grain market performance. >> its farm report is brought to you by the enlist weed control system. by nationwide agro business, the number one farm insurance in the united states. by yamaha, real world tough.

and by the 2012 chevy silv era do hd. >> hello. welcome to united states farm report. it's not like math. they have had a fun year today. nearly every major comedy report has provoked a skeptical reception. now budget cuts have prompted them to stop producing several reports all together. it remains to be seen if the cuts come to pass, it only adds to the dissatisfaction with their performance. we have only ourselves to blame as agencies like they do only what the pertinent laws say. the world often moves faster than constitutional legislation writers. time for the news. here isal. >> thank you. production figures in the major crops were all reduced in the u.s.d.a. november 9th report and those

dipped below average trade expectations. the corn crop is down 1% from the october forecast. yields are down nearly a bushel and a half from october. the national average yield is 6- bushels lower than last year. soybean crop is down slightly, by two tenths of a bushel. that pegs production at just over three billion bushels. u.s.d.a. also made adjustments to carry over for corn. it's projecting year ending stocks at 843 million-bushels. >> overall i think the key message on the ending stocks side of things is supplies remain tight for corn and soybeans and are projected to do so through the marketing year the bigger story yesterday as a rereports -- aside from them is the macro economics situation and europe. while attention has shifted

from greece which was a relative small fish in the pond it's now moved to italy the third largest economy in the euro zone and that's causing a lot of trouble that. caused a huge spike in the united states dollar index and a sharp drop in commodities in general and the stock market as traders ran from risk. i think that moving forward is probably the bigger issue in terms of how much macro economy head winds the market has to face. >> for the editors of profarmer. >> other news it looks like meses of u.s.d.a. gipsa rule are going to the office of management and budget though without some of the most controversial parts. industry reports says the rue has been split three ways and what's left will have little impact on beef or hog producers. chicken may see changes to things like suspension of delivery, breach of contract and capitol invest critria.

those are the headlines, now back to john for crop watch. >> . >> and in crop watch this week in southwest oklahoma a tornado touched down near the town of tip ton on monday. this may look like an empty lot but the oklahoma state university had an extension office here. now it's gone. a grow america henry county said he should just throw the calendar out the window. beans planted on june 7th yielded 77-bushels to the acre but those planted on may 30th yielded 30. the corn planted in june is 50 to 70-bushels better than the may corn. and christmas tree harvest is underway in washington. growers in thurston are finding nearly ideal conditions. in watkim they are tagging them

for export. no when we return, al is back to talk market. the discussions started in just two minutes. please stay with us. 123450 round table guests this week, we have tom and mark. tom to you, how did the market wind up today. it's the first time over here i will give you a right chance. >> it didn't end up well for

me. i trade grain markets off the outside markets and the outside market has a wonderful day where the stocks were up, they were still up when we came down here. crude up, the dollar was really weak. everything green on the board but for what i decided to buy and that was corn. corn closed down seven, beans were up seven and wheat rallied toward the end but closed down three. grain just didn't want to participate in the outside market. they don't have to. sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. as we talked before the show that didn't work today. >> the outside markets you find it true? >> you know we have seen the markets following all the developments in greece and italy, that -- has the effect on the market early on. the most important thin was the report. they had lower corn production. knocked the yields down but also feed use by 100 million- bushels, putting the carry out over 100 million. that was a surprise for the

market. we -- moved away from that kind of 6:50 midpoint we had been at and started to close significantly under that. that's not a healthy sign for the market. beans took it on the chin. we -- the demand is the big fear issue out there coupled with the problems in europe. >> you say demand is a big fear issue. nobody knows. >> we are concerned we aren't seeing the china exports, into china over soybean. >> they aren't buying as much. >> they are slowing down and we are seeing problems, certainly if greece and italy fall and he with have more problems in the european union that will be a real knock for our demand for grains around the world. it's one world pot when it comes to grain. if the europeans aren't buying australian or german or whatever they can get chances are they aren't buying ours

either. it's all playing into one big pot and that pot is the demand pot and that looks like it's lower. >> hear you talking act supply and demand. talking about grain, about use and that kind of thing. i know you -- you are talking account what happens to the outside. we probably should point out you are a speculator and don't represent other people in this but yourself. >> yes. i fund my own account. trade my own account and when i have an idea i put the trade on and seems like more times than not -- by the end of the year it usually works and the opportunity for a speculator have never been so great. it's just a very confusing time. >> thing you would be concerned and i'm thinking, know you are -- what goes on in europe? you are interested in other places, maybe not related to grain, dollars and metals and thing. >> i look at the grain market on a 24 hour level and look at my big thing in grain -- we

should have demand. we just crossed a -- 7 billion mark more people and who knows how many pigs are out there. we knead to feed them and with crude at $99 and gold close to $1,800 again, i just don't see grain tapering off to much but they can. they can break away from the outside and that's how people loose a lot of money. they watch the outside and say grains can't go down and when you think something can't do it usually does. >> are you kind of smiling. >> never tell me what a market can't do. a market will do whatever it wants. one of my fears is that i just got back from the american bankers conference and they are saying the same thing, we are hearing from around the country and they are holding a lot grain. they have sold a lot and will protect it but a -- are saying their neighbors holding it,

storing t a lot of the guys figure we haven't done the marketing for two years and it's paid off. now they don't want to do this year. in any -- two out of ten years not being a marketer may pay off. in the other eight out of ten years we feel you can do a lot better by being a consistent marketer. with the farmer holding much grain, they normally sell in the bottom third. that's a problem. >> when we come back i want to get into what some of the producer dear sir do, the traders in order to make a profit. i'm profit focused though i don't make it that often. we will be back with more in just a moment.

. our guest, tom and mark, come toffies mark, i have a question -- i will ask you

both. what are two key things that we need to watch to determine what is going to happen to the grain markets for 2012? >> the demand side is number one. we know the crop side, for the most part. there are plenty of professionals out there. we both know a scott's man that's a good trader, thinks it's a little lower and i don't doubt we may see them come down more. the fact of the matter is without the demand the numbers can belower. six and a half dollar corn, $6.30 corn isn't cheap and with it being held with the high input prices of crude almost a hundred dollars, land prices, cash rent, farmers can't afford to be raising corn with all the inputs, and sell the crop at 3 and a half dollars. >> demand is number one and there is just to much grain in

the farmer's hands in my opinion. they have to shake it out. >> one way or the other. what are the two things you will watch because are you watching some of the same things. >> touching that -- 2012, one of the things on the market was the 2012 corn traded lower than the down 17-cents. i want to say 12 crop -- that's not as good as the prices we are talking forefront month corn. into next year the farmer next to me they are optimistic but as we talk about the high erin put cost we know the feed cost goes up, the fertilizer cost, a higher energy cost. they have to run the numbers again and make sure the profitable is still there. i don't think -- three dollar corn is coming back but five dollar corn may not be as profitable as they think so they need to run the numbers and make sure with the input costs the profit will be there.

>> i'm -- are you both sinned kind of talking about maybe we won't have this seven, eight dollar corn next year. >> you know one of the things we have to talk about today is -- the global situation. how that may affect the american farmer. with all that speculative money frozen or out of the market and the funds being pulled in by some of the french banks that lending, what we have seen is you to have feed it every day. without some of the speculative money it'll be harder to sustain any kind of rally without a lot of the speculatist buying. the other point is that yes, a farm can do something in my opinion that was criminal but you can't stop using the markets because of one bad apple. it's like the guy who is delivered grain to the elevator and went bantrupt, does that

mean stop selling or being a farmer? , no you have to find a good firm. all the firms -- have you to know who you are dealing and i think it's critical that you don't give up on using the markets because they have been around for 150 years. we had one bad apple. >> i guess i need to -- we only have a minute, what a producer should be doing now and i'm concerned about next year and maybe that grain in the bin. you know there is at a lot. >> no secret the farmer has been building more storage and taking their profit and building storage and it's a great thing to do. one of the things in my career i have switched to options and -- i find it difficult not to trade the options and you can go to bed knowing what you can loose and that's what --. >> option trading you put the money there and it's there. >> if you buy a premium. you can also loose if you sell

premium. i i like that when i think the market is going do you i buy puts and when i have that speculative bug that's it going up i will be a call buyer again and where we are right now we are in limbo and -- ms global has changed the game. >> i will say we should take advantage of the high basis. what do you say? >> it's a gift. one of the things that farmers saying the basis is high because the grain isn't out there. it's high because there is no incentive for the cell evacuator to storet. they are moving it out. the farmer still remaining the grain. it's a great opportunity. >> we will be back with more in just a moment.

. weather on united states farm report is brought to you by nationwide agro business, nationwide adro business the number one farm insurance in the united states. >> let's talk weather with mike hoffman. mike i was going to complain isn't my drive up here going by south bend and the lake effect snows but alaska, that's a storm. >> yeah and it's a unusual storm and does happen sometimes like you said about every 40 years. the models don't catch it. >> not coming here? >> you would think a big trough would form but we will have to wait and see. we will sue you that in the

next half hour. in the meantime we have to how you the drought monitor. the just extreme drought continues in many parts of the area across texas, western oklahoma, southern kansas into parts of the southwest. it's dry in the southeast and that's been getting dry late in the growing season. on up into iowa and southeastern minnesota as well. not a good situation this area i don't see a big hope for you this winter either. maybe i will be wrong on that. here is the jet stream into that week. we have a kind of cut off trough in the southwest that will spread moisture in to the areas. you have at least some chances for scattered showers. you can see how that kind of folds in to the main trouga that's sitting up here. this is what i talked about the storm system itself is probably the remnant of that right there, it's not really diving and coming eastward. we will have to wait and see. this is very cold air and i think the northern tier you

will continue to see shots that, despite the fact it looks zonal. presses farther south than you think it'll. here are the maps as we head into monday and the first system, mainly rain showers with this, down in to the ohio valley, bit of snow on the back side. next system coming through the northern portions of the rockies and that will push more early season now and that area of low pressure in from the southwest coast is going to produce some rain in parts of the southwest and parts of texas as well. that falls apart as it comes east and you can see the storm system, the one over the west moves on in to the great lakes already, kind of fast movers here with the rain and snow, another system out west. that will be in to the great lakes into friday and that's going to continue to cause another batch of rain and snow showers through that area and another storm in through the pacific northwest. a fast moving weather pattern

this week. we will check the longer range in the next half hour

. this weekend was marked which a curious veteran's day observe advance, 11, 11, 11, the great war, or world war i for americans, it was the first time humanity had experienced what history calls total war. as a veteran i often wonder what the armistance meant for those remaining in 1918, but i'm sure it's beyond my imagining. this day the appropriate attitude should be leavened with news, human kind is continuing a decade long

retreat from armed hostility. since the 90s both civil and international conflicts gone done. it's similar to the level of the 60s and below its peak. given the wide coverage it would be easy to assume it's more popular than ever and in fairness it is perhaps this over exposure that helps end conflict. just as the iraq war ended with little fanfare wars seem to start with a bang and end with a whim per. perhaps we are just moving our conflicts to economic or cultural arenas but regardless laying down arms in favor of words or finance is a step forward. i can't help but think those great war veterans would wonder what took us so long. let us know what you think. e-mail or call and leave us a

voicemail. in the next half hour how less water can equal more profit for texas producers. stay with us. the second half of united states farm report is coming up. . . today on united states farm report, the downer cattle issue is a federal powers court case. pecans to the list of crops destroyed by the drought. and the christmas tree tax

problem putting a unwanted light on check off programs. >> united states farm report brought to you by nationwide agro business, the number one farm insurance in the united states, by yamaha, real world tough, and by the 2012 chevy silv era do hd. hello and welcome to united states farm report. because of a check off program to help promote fresh trees has fallen victim to tax rhetoric. the outcome may have implications for other commodity organizations like corn, dairy or soybeans. it's fair to argue that the programs don't provide value for the money but i will leave that defense to the program backers. one thing is clear, that is

every effort should be made to separate check off from taxes. easiest way may be one i have worked for for years, make check offs fully refundable. let's the get . >> good morning. it appears the supreme court will block a law that would require meat packers to pleadly put down livestock that can't walk to slaughter. in 2009 voter its approved a law that bars the purchase and vaughting of animals that can't walk. the meat association filed suit saying the state law would violate a federal statute that sets national standards for meat safety. a judge agreed but it was overturned by a federal appeals court. the federal standards give the u.s.d.a. approved inspectors the final word on what to do about livestock that can't walk. if you plan on p era n apply you may paying more that

year. the nuts in tight supply because of drought in the southern states, there is also been a jump in demand from china. the prices expected to hit $11 a pound, that's up 22% from last year. according to u.s.d.a. data georgia, texas and new mexico are the top three producers. the agriculture department is backing off on its plan to put in a checkoff program for real christmas trees. that decision after the story went viral on the internet about the christmas tax. earlier this week the u.s.d.a. said it would mandate a 15-cent tax entrees to help pay for promoting the industry. it would go to a board like a check off program that we see in dairy, pork and beef. the 15-cent tax was only for the big guys, producers of trees that cell or import more than 500 a year. now after outside criticism and despite grower support the u.s.d.a.

said it'll delay the tax and revisit the action later. that's it for news. mike hoffman now with the forecast. >> weather on united states farm report is brought to you by nation wide agro business, the number one farm insurance in the united states. >> i will show a split jet stream because we have southern energy coming in and this time of year that starts to happen but we have a trough in the southwest. that will spread much needed rain, at least it'll help a little bit. we start to -- now the northern jet stream is mainly going to be zonal that would tend to bottle up the really cold air over canada. the storm system, the big one in alaska last week concerns me that maybe the models didn't catch it and maybe we will see a bigger crop develop from that northern jet stream. we will have to watch that

through this week. the things may come farther south than be think. as of now we will show a trough many to the plains and the great lakes, on wednesday in that northern stream and that will spread from snow and rain showers across the great lakes in to the northeast. scattered thunderstorms in to florida. the trough over the southwest, getting absorbed and moves through the southeast. another storm system, that one into the great lakes, already by friday so things move along quick here. should stay mild in the southland unless we get a bigger trough later this week from the remnants of that storm in alaska. the temperatures for next weekend. this would take us through the week of thanksgiving. above normal temperatures for most of the southeast from southern missouri through texas, below normal. new england, great lakes, northern plains in to the

northwest and into the inner mountain area. precipitation, great lakes, down to the tennessee valley as well as the northern rockies, the drought areas, texas on up into the kansas, southeast new mexico more than likely below normal. now out the 90 days, my winter outlook. below normal temperatures from eastern montana all the way down to northern portions of florida and right up through the great lakes in the northeast. i think it'll be a fairly cold winter. above normal from the southern and western text exinto the southwest. precipitation for the next 90 days above normal, the great lakes, northern mississippi valley in to the tennessee valley below normal florida, texas and the desert southwest. that forecast a little different than some of the official ones out there but i do think another la n," na year will lead to a cold erwin interest. >> another interesting spring.

>> yes. >> spirit of the heart land is next. > ♪

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fall is in the air. and at rocky . spirit of the heart land. brought to you by yamaha the first name in motor sports. >> fall in the air and that rocky mountain national park you can hear the calls of elk. september through october is mating season. ann gives you a look at love from the horned giants. >> just blown away by the beauty up here. this is great. >> look how the water is glistening, look at the water. >> just getting a chance to be out of the city and really experience some wildlife. we are watching a bull elk that is i think trying to court the

laid ladies over here. the elk are one of the icon animals, especially at this time of year. the bulls putting on quite a display trying to show the cows they are the healthiest, the biggest, the fittest, and so the bugle is part of it. he is letting everybody know he is large and in charge. as we watch them and they are kind of watching us, what they -- they must really think we are a funny species to watch. nobody has ever screamed at me like that. i don't know if i would be attracted to that or not. >> i did find some sort of interesting -- as a singer and songwriter i said it was like crooning. some of those females may think that's like the singer of the

elk population and they are probably excited about it. he looked at me. he just looked at me. how does that make you feel? when i do that? >> pretty hot. >> yeah. nice. >> i think seeing one of nature's great love stories firsthand is such a huge attraction. there he goes again. . >> according to the rocky mountain elk foundation colorado has the largest elk herd in the nation. next week how this custom chopper with its unique flair is helping put adopted children

inside loving homes. that is next week on spirit of the heart land. up next new tools help texas producers save water and increase profit. we will be right back. . >> miss any of the show? head to united states farm report.com to watch the program online. united states farm report the spirit of the countryside.

while the lack of grazing has been a key driver is t 123450 the lack of grazing has been a key driver in the herd liquidation it appears the lack of water is the next big issue. more than 90% of texas is under extreme drought, nearly a thousand public water systems have put in water restrictions meaning ranchers can't hall water. during a texas senate committee meeting last week official its said there are dozens of water systems with in six months of drying up. managing water resources is becoming very important on farms and ranches across the

nation. . looking for ways to help producers maximize profits while minimizing the need for irrigation. >> due this year's drought glenn had to irrigate more than normal just to make a crop. this time around he is using two different tooling to help manage the water. the irrigation schedule tool and the resource allocation analyzer. >> it works, it's a bit time consumer, takes time to look at all the factor that go into water management but it's like i have always said, anytime tie you can stop a p ivot that's a benefit. >> both of the tools available to produce he is for free on the internet. they were developed by the alliance for water conversation with the goal of helping

producers save water and maximize profit. >> only takes a few minutes to set up most of the programs, a few minutes to log in and it doesn't require a lot from the grower in terms of software application or down loading ability, it's completelyself sufficient on the internet, and the best part is it's free of charge. >> this is the analyzer. it lets growers look at different combinations of crops and acres and helps them determine which crop will make the most money given current irrigation abilities. >> if a grower is trying to pick between cotton and corn let's say on the 120 acres to generate that amount, the producer may enter in that he needs 20 inches of water on cotton to generate 1800-pounds and 25 inches of water to generate 200-bushels of corn. the expected price for this

upcoming year is going to be let's say 90-cents on cotton and $5.50 on corn. it analyzes and it comes back with several situations for the grower to look at. these are options generated in the program to give him the idea of various ooms he has for planting on the field. >> the other available resource is the irrigation scheduling tool. it's a register that helps the producer died when and how much water to apply during an irrigation event. >> let's say in a few days after he plants, he wants to do animation event. he put out one inch of water for example. we can see that now instead of declining all the way down to 1.6 below that we added in the one inch at an 85% effectiveness over here for the effective irrigation so it was eight and a half added back in.

>> the program is hypped enough to determine how much water the crop needs based on the development stage and using current weather data it is determine how much moisture it being pulled from the ground. >> a hard time meeting the crop demand, on water that even using the program we were able to stop the -- a couple days. >> the program has released last winter and texas tech officials say about 150 from deucers using it so far. in texas, united states farm report. >> to learn more about the resources head online. when we come tractor tales.

where we headed . al is back for tractor tales. >> john we are off to the lone star state. there is an old slogan power

when you want it, when you need it, that's the power you find in the oliver row crop 70 and the slogan still fits. >> 1937, oliver and -- merged in 36. they kept the name up until 1940. then they dropped that and it was straight oliver from then on. it would -- it's would pull three to four bottom clouds at a time. it was the biggest oliver at the time that's come out. you could -- probably three row equipment it would pull, three or four row planters and plugs, i rebuilt it but every part just about come from up north with the oliver wasn't big here in texas. only thing i don't have is the seat because it was a spring steel seat with a canvas cover and i can't find one of them.

other tan that it's all original. hard to find hart parts, down here if it's not a ford, or a john deere it's really hard. there aren't many in the wrecking yard and that's why i wanted it, it's oddball. had to have the side panels made bust most farmer when is they work on them they just threw the side panels down where they could get in and work on them and then they got lost. i found it in a wrecking yard in tyler and i never had worked on thel oliver and wanted to. it has a road gear in it. probably 25-mile an how on the road and the farmer like that so they could go from one field to another really fast. >> during the 30s and 40s the oliver 70 was among the finest. they are a beautiful stream lined machine. and now to today's country

church salute. it starts in iowa at saint mack's. it was started by a small group. the church was organized in december 1861 with 32 charter members. the same building is still used today. our thank you to marlene for sharing the news. she is chip flore's mother, the editor of our profarmer us in lease letter. the second salute is in tennessee. it was built in 1861. they metaphor years in an old log school house. the first building was built in 1886. unfortunately it was destroyed by fire in 1905. the present one was built in

1944. r edward said the 4th and 5th generation still attend there. congratulations on your 150 years of ministry. we want to learn about your home church as well. lists can be sent to the address on the screen. the mailbag is next. . >> country church saw absolute is brought to you by farmers feeding the world. leading the way and feeding a hungy planet.

. time for the weekly check of the mailbag. karen is a frustrated hay buyer. why are the growers exporting

all the hay when we can't find in the united states in? when will we start take car of our country first? almost no hay is eximportant ported and in that market only about 4% is exported. much of your problem comes the drought in the southern plains. the effect of the double whammy, pastures been made baren raising demand for hay but production in those area social security likely devastated. this creates an exbanding appetite for hay all the way to the northern border. it's not nutrient dense and it's a huge cost to move. meanwhile record prices for corn and soybeans have producers tearing up hay fields to get the higher profits. our major customers japan, and other eastern buyers. because of a huge shipping

imbalance it costs more to move hay in the country than touching a. the weak dollar makes the hay exports a bargin also. hay is expensive because of domestic supply and demand, not exports, curtailing them would have little effect. as always we want to hear from you. send comments to mailbag or leave us ace voicemail. for all of us, thank you for watching. be sure to join us next week. we will working to do even better. .

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