get! [horse neighing] loose horse! [man yelling] someone give me a hand! whoa, whoa, easy, boy! easy! [distant shouting] [horse whinnies]

[horse snorting] thirsty, buddy? how's that? [piano playing] wow. that was incredible. i didn't know a cowboy could play classical music. well, actually, this thing plays pretty good now that you've got it tuned up. have to admit, i'm kind of embarrassed. [piano playing] oh, clay, just because our kids don't follow exactly in our footsteps-- ah, nah, it ain't that. you know why my kid never told me?

'cause he thought i wouldn't approve. hell, if i could play like that, i wouldn't want to swing a rope either. [piano playing "maple leaf rag"] thanks. can you grab that, mallory? did i, uh, did i tell you that piano is a family heirloom? my grandmother played it. and, believe me, they do not make 'em like that anymore. so what you're saying is, uh, it's old, it's used, and i can forget about spare parts. just give him the piano, grandpa. it's not doing anything here but taking up space. hey, ty. how'd it go last night? no problems. good. so...you ready to leave those other guys in the dust, champ? [chuckles] yeah, right. lucky number 4.

announcer: the current odds on number 4... lightning dexter is your favorite at 3 to 1. number 2, alberta comet is the long-shot at 12 to 1 odds. number 1... hello, folks. well, it's a beautiful day for a horse race. we'll see how beautiful it is when they cross the finish line. yes, we will. bet on number 2, alberta comet. jack, i have a tip for you. lightning dexter, number 4. the bookies even have him pegged as a winner. i've gambled enough of my hard-earned money on you already. [trumpet sounds] announcer: they are at the post of the 15th annual running of the hudson stakes. a mile and a quarter for a $15,000 purse. [gunshot] and they're off! [bell ringing] first out of the gate... [indistinct] lightning dexter is fighting for third. [crowd yelling and cheering] let's go! alberta comet moves ahead of lightning dexter. [crowd cheering] ...with alberta comet really coming on!

[continuing indistinctly] alberta comet is really moving! [indistinct] alberta comet is holding strong in first place. go, comet, let's go! look at alberta comet go! [indistinct] come on, lightning! alberta comet is coming around as they move into the final turn. and it's alberta comet taking a commanding lead, come on, let's go! alberta comet is pulling away from lightning dexter. come on, let's go! alberta comet, let's go! let's go! alberta comet wins! whoo! [indistinct] and lightning dexter comes in a disappointing last place. maybe next time, tim, hmm? dad, he did great at the start. maybe he's just having an off day. announcer: so, the winner of your 15th annual hudson stakes is alberta comet!

a great catch and sauce made with french's dijon with chardonnay. then i warm things up with the story of how we met. the real story of how we met. and that's how new friends are made.

oh, there's a prize, all right. [ male announcer ] inside every box of cheerios are those great-tasting little o's made from carefully selected oats that can help lower cholesterol. is it a superhero? kinda. ♪ is the pain reliever orthopedic doctors recommend most for arthritis pain, think again. and take aleve. it's the one doctors recommend most for arthritis pain... two pills can last all day. ♪

two pills can last all day. get teeted for heart disease.. for free... plus- what to wear to get 20 percent off at a

well, good news. there's nothing wrong with your horse. he's just been waterlogged. waterlogged? yeah, his belly's full of water. well, his water bucket's completely empty. he must've drank it all before the race. salt. somebody put salt in his hay. [throws bucket on ground] thank you very much. woman: have a good day. you, too. lily, hey. whew. [chuckles] what happened to "i've changed"? what happened to "i quit gambling"? ah, no, it's not like that. nah, this--this, uh... this was a sure thing. 100 percent, no risk involved. i've heard that before. yeah, but, lily, this time it's different. i mean, i got a clear vision. i got a clear mind. i know where i'm going.

there's only one thing holding me back. you know, if i had you by my side, there'd be nothing to stop us. whaddya say, lily? i--i can't. i promised ty. but you promised me, too, remember? huh? till death do us part. come on, lily. i can work things out with ty. i know i can. just give me a shot to do that. this--this could be our fresh start right here. wade. wade, you know that never worked with us. yeah, but this time it could. it could. i love you. let's go home. ty. you stayed with my horse last night... the whole night? uh, yeah. except, uh... i had to go see my mom so amy covered for me. so who am i talking to, you or my daughter?

dad, what is the big deal? the big deal? the big deal is that somebody salted lightning's hay to throw the race. i--i don't get it. what... they put salt in the hay. it makes them drink too much water. and he was so full of water that he came waddling out of the gate like a beached whale. so, you--you're telling me that one of you stayed with him last night? uh, well, actually, um, one of the horses got out in the middle of the night and i had to help round him up. you picked a great night to be a good samaritan. i was only gone for a couple of seconds. he--i--i didn't think-- you didn't think, ty! you didn't think. it wasn't ty's fault. but dad's talking like it was him who salted the hay. well, dad had a lot riding on that horse. yeah, but come on, lou. a loose horse in the middle of the night? it had to be a set-up. you think someone's trying to frame ty? well, i don't know. what i don't get is why anyone would want to make sure dad's horse lost. well, lightning was the favorite, so if you want to make a lot of money, bet on the long shot. like comet. lisa's horse. you want to be the one to tell grandpa

that his girlfriend rigged the race? lou, this isn't funny. ty could lose his job at the track. and anyone could've rigged that. yeah, anyone looking to make a big payday. a sure thing. no risk involved. come on, lily, answer your phone. i know who did it at the track... with the salt. wade. ty...ty, please, you've got to believe me. i just went to see him yesterday so i could clear things up once and for all. there he was at the track. and he...he starts talking. he makes everything sound so reasonable. like we can just put the bad stuff behind us and have a real future. so, what are you doing here, mom?

go. go be with him if you want to. no. i made a mistake. we both know i'm not perfect. bringing you into the world was the best thing that i ever did. so if i have to choose between you and anything else, i choose you.

wade. get in the house, mom. ty, you don't have to do this. get in the house now, mom! you know, ty, i've been thinking. if it wasn't for you, my wife there, she'd be home with me where she belongs. now, maybe you haven't figured it out yet, but she's going to choose me every time. so why don't you just give it up, buddy? do yourself a favor, wade, and leave. right now. why's that? you gonna hit me, ty? you gonna hit me like you did last time? whaddya gonna do, ty? i got news for you, man. this time i'm sober and my back's not turned to you. what the hell? let's make it even-steven. [clank] come on, give me your best shot. come on, tough guy. come on, you got it in you, don't you? come on, let's go.

you got it in ya, let's go, come on. come on. yeah. now, ok. ready? let's go. ty, no! uh. ty! uh, come on, man. do it. show these people your true colors, man. hit me. no, wade. you're not worth it. you never were. that's some tough talk. too bad that's all it is. you're trespassing on my property. you best be moving on. yeah, i get it. you coming, lily? let's go. come on, lily, this has nothing to do with you. let's go. i forgive you. i'm not mad at you anymore. let's go. you're not mad at me? you're not mad at me?

stay with your son then. have a good life. hey! you forgot this. in case you have a flat on the way out of here.

then kick it up a notch with french's spicy brown. hey, rookies. not bad for your first game.

3q well, not what i expected to be bringing home, but i'll tell you what. it feels just about as heavy as a horse. [chuckles] i really appreciate this, jack. i'm glad your son's gonna get some use out of this old piano. yeah. i don't know how to thank you, though. how about a free copy of your first cd? all right. i'll see you. [sighs] you know, ty, i'm so sorry my coming here caused so many problems.

i'm still glad you came. i want you to have this. what is it? it's the money you gave me. yeah, i gave it to you. i know. and it was so sweet of you. but you told me you want to go to university, and you're going to need this. are you ok, mom? yeah. i'm just so proud of you. have a safe trip, mom. ♪ you and i tried to bridge the space between us ♪ ♪ the longest road i walk alone ♪ ♪ the hardest part is letting go... ♪ what's going on, lou?

this is my half. and that is your half. but now it's organized. so, you put everything back? i guess i'd rather share this space with 6 generations of junk than be the kind of person who can... put their whole life into a couple suitcases. so, what--you're saying we're...roommates? sure. but if any of your stuff crosses this line, i'm throwing it out. ♪ your star, it shines ♪ you know it burns so bright without me ♪ ty. ♪ through the night hey. hey. ♪ lying next to the space where you'd be ♪ it turns out my mom did have a baby picture of me after all. ♪ looking for forgiveness in your eyes... ♪ look at those chubby cheeks. [chuckles]

i was pretty adorable, wasn't i? yeah. you still are. ♪ i'm crawling from the wreckage and the static between ♪ isn't just a great way to clean wood. pledge is also gentle on leather. safe on stainless. missed a spot. great for shining motorcycles... wood? come on. it's pledge. car seats and dashboards. hey there! it cleans laminate furniture...

or whatever that was. even granite. today, pledge shines a whole lot more than just end tables. [ male announcer ] for a quick dusting, try pledge wipes. [ female announcer ] sc johnson, a family company. can you enjoy vegetables with for a sauce dusting, try pledge wipes. and still reach your weight loss goals? you can with green giant frozen vegetables. over twenty delicious varieties have sixty calories or less per serving and are now weight watchers-endorsed. try green giant frozen vegetables with sauce.

the best in nutrition... just got better. high in vitamins d, e, and b12. plus omega 3's. [ female announcer ] eggland's best. the better egg. ♪ every time i'm down up against the wall ♪s. ♪ i keep on holding on, you know, embrace it all ♪ ♪ every time ♪ every time this world crashes down on me ♪

♪ i'm crawling from the wreckage and the static between ♪

problems, milk production continues to climb meanwhile, drought and feed costs keep shrinking the u-s herd and oklahomans try out one today, even with private problems production can use to climb. and oklahoma's trail one of the most beautiful crops in hopes of the more profitable rotation. us one report, brought to you by the 2012 chevy silverado. the most dependable, longest lasting full-size pickups on the road. hello and welcome to us farm report. i'm john pitts. producers in corn country have been watching the weather in south america almost more closely than our own but there's a lot of crop area to monitor and the rains fall where they will. the world continues to operate within the supplies of all types of ag products making every production pickup market mover. our developers will have more to say on that soon, but many

of the farmers i talk to this winter are still trying to adjust to life without enormous surpluses. good news for prices but also making more of us aware of how important every crop, everywhere, every year has become. >> we begin with the word of any record year for us dairy production. according to the numbers, during an built just over 196 billion pounds in 2011. overall production per cow's climbed to more than 21,000 pounds, and the usda says the total number of dairy cows is up by about 80,000 head, less than 1% from the previous year. harvard said it expects increasing production and lower exports to price dominick push prices lower.

for the sixth time in the month, future prices have topped there previous best. signs continue to show shrinking inventories but consumers can expect to pay 5% more for their favorite cuts by the end of the year. prices rose buy about 10% in 2011. more winter we growers are turning to avert additional crop for weed control. canola acres may reach 200,000 for the first time. areas in northern texas, oklahoma and kansas are adopting the plant because broadleaved we farmers have found it useful to combat wheat. the acreage has doubled nearly every year. agronomist say even in the midst of drought the rains have helped his devilish this year's drought. >> obviously we will need more moisture. it had enough to get the crop up and established, had good

rude, crude development to survive the cold winter is coming up here shortly. but so far it's looking good. we are able to get off and get across established, but we will need more ratings as it reaches reproductive, especially once it starts bolting. >> local markets and strong prices are helping persuade producers to get to know what i try. now back to john for the crop watch. >> the crop watch this week as the three state swing beginning in texas. and, the rain will help build stock ponds and water tanks which is lot of folks needs in

texas. growers will need to scout to seasonal diseases by mild winter in the south. he's the anti- stripe rust. the fungi will overwinter in the deep south. he expects ross will show up earlier this year as well. ended the lucie county florida, barbers were started to plant vegetables despite the surface soil moisture that was mostly depleted. when we return, al is back to talk markets with andy schussler and prime basting. that is coming up in just a few moments.

roundtable guests this week at us-born, armed report. i want to know what you think farmers want to know about this week's trade and what we should talk about today. >> we are seeing historically strong cash corn basis levels throughout the west. but concentrated, everywhere including the gulf of mexico. some of the strongest cash basis for other porn we have ever seen. >> andy, what do you think we ought to talk about the. >> i think we should talk about the weather of argentina and changes in crop size there, and then some of the world we stocks and

things like that. >> let's talk about the world situation. we've been talking about europe for i don't know how long. >> i'd like to take the week off, because we didn't end of the world in europe this week. so if we could take over the costs that would be cool. >> so where are we at what is causing these high prices? because i guess we need delivery of corn. >> the pipeline is extremely tight for corn. producers are very strong holders of corn. cash flow is not out of concern for most producers now, they had good yields westfall and good prices. don't need to generate any more cash flow at the moment. it tightened up the cash corn pipeline and as the result, even though we don't have extraordinarily strong demand for exports, there is enough there to talk on very few heads starships and, basis levels are up.

>> i no you have to have some basis points for where they are so where are they running? >> i heard 60 or 70 or 80 over at the golf was exceptionally strong corn. some of. some of the processors are at levels not seen in the 15 or 20 years of the domestic part of the midwest. it varies but is universal across the entire midwest. >> and you're nodding your head also? >> well for me that tells me that we are probably going to come close to running out of corn. you see it faces number like that and you trade plus birdies during harvest with a lot of green men, we carry almost nothing into the year and in the back unicycle when it gets tight and he used the first quarter of which was the easiest grain to die. i just -- i really think corn

stocks will be much less than last year. either we have the yield wrong or that the law but we are using basic dumbed down levels of demand. i think that this is to show that at all. >> well the government came along with this report and why is it changing now and then coming back at the basis is up and we know there is the shortage in there. if there is the shortage than the government report showed somehow reflected that. so where is the error and who made it in this whole concept? >> i think there is a lot of moving parts, but whether you save the earth speed weed or she beat thes, if you are going to walk 8 million bushels and then start to find substitutes, i think the numbers are too high for that to happen. i don't think that will be what

happens. i think it might be trading close to the puck over. you go build your first and then find the next day. and what if you can't find the? and what happens. that's what drives the prices up. >> we are talking about guys and export business. not just feed usage, not just ethanol. >> if you have any vote leading up the gulf port and you have to have it shipped, you have to pay what you have to pay. but i think that perhaps underestimated or bought they would improve the first 30 days and it hasn't happened. >> when we get back we'll talk about corn usage and then about all of the crops here on u.s.

farm report.

roundtable guests this

week, and during our break we were talking about corn along with other things. but you gave very good example. i'd like you to get the example that you have just shared people who came back. >> i think i good way to look at it, the producer is holding corn on the farm in eight games. say you have of fair amount of onboard storage, 100,0 00 bushels, and the price maybe 650 cash. it's sitting their resting in the bin and what i would encourage you are used to think about is, that prices will be the price today. it might be hired tomorrow but it could be lower tomorrow and we encourage users to manage that risk. it could be a lot lower only from now. or it could be hype. the key thing is to manage the risk that leave the upside open and protect the downside.

>> you have indicated to her feeling was there is a lot of corn a lot of corn in the den on the farm because agriculture has been pretty good the last few years? >> i can't say that there hasn't been challenges with some droughts and flooding, but in general a lot of producers have the best balance sheets ever and we are encouraging our customers to defend that balance sheet against the unexpected. defend it and give yourself the upside but defend the downside. >> let's talk about usage of the corn or where it's going. we were talking primarily about exports, but it looks like the cattle in the report we won't have as many cattle this year, and there was some discussion of changing things around there, so we can to usage? >> i think it will continue like this.

you have your old crop deal is about to run out, you have your new crop deal, and you use a lot more great next year if we produce it. i think the demand for corn states really high that i think a lot of the traders are banking on better weather, having bigger yields and more acres, the situation for the 12 corn is not as bullish as the new corn, and it will get back to the normal exports because you have more to south. and the median is probably the better price for corn. >> let's talk about south american weather and it's really affecting our prices. soybeans and corn. >> correct. we have one dot la nina, and

the biggest effect for the corn whiskey. we got to be back similar to this year and for me to damage is done in argentina and parts of brazil for the corn. the balance sheets are shaking down there and if you thought you were going to get extra comfortable outside of the us for some of this corn supply, it's not going to be easy now. then he looked over into russia where everybody talks about moving we didn't come everywhere. >> russia indicated they might add eight therefore not ship any at all. it could give us some opportunities to sell corn, is what i think. we might have gotten higher price than you would have gotten the month or two ago. >> do you think we will continue to be bullish on corn prices, and tell when?

>> i keep coming back to the notion of protecting the downside risk at these levels. you could certainly go lower, and the week went a lot lower. it's just -- corn went up to $8 and it's coming back to little bit here but we could raise the water of the 2012 corn crop if we get better weather this year. >> will be back with more u.s. farm report and just the moment.

meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now. i have good news for you young guys. when you get older, you get tougher. but this winter, no problem. >> it could have been the weather. >> we have looked at worldwide temperatures in the last couple days. the only two places that have had eight mild winter. everyone else, we are half of degree below normal now. so strange indeed, no question about that. here's the jet stream and we have one more blast of cold air

comes through the great lakes. the ohio valley and northeast and that's delivering. this is another quick blast of cold air because all of the state is bottled up in candidate besides an occasional blast into the united states. but you can see as we put this into motion planes flattened out about that. we do see the heads of the trough developing as we head towards next weekend again into the great lakes and northeast. at some period of time i do believe this drop will stay for a while because we are seeing the situation in the north atlantic, the north atlantic oscillation, those are two things that we look at which are going towards the cold face. it just hasn't happened yet. so that's something we will be watching by late next week or weekend. will have of weeks of coming across the northern

plains. mainly light snow up here but as the gulf moisture gets involved there will be rain developing. the brain along the coast in the pacific northwest. snow inland in many parts of the northern and central rockies. lingering snow flurries as frigid air comes into the great lakes and northeast. by wednesday we are looking at this frontal system moving off to the east, quick little shot of cold air behind the scene so this will be mainly rain ahead of the system as you can see on the part of northern. and again with another system coming into the pacific northwest, that will be moving through the great lakes next friday at producing some areas of snow there, but from the ohio valley southwestward we are talking mainly rain showers and another system coming into the pacific northwest. just one after another. we will check the longer range

forecast coming up in the next half-hour.

there was another government report about climate change released a few days ago. top climate scientists outlined in clear terms the grim consequences on the horizon for people and agriculture. the changes in crop production will be significant. rice production will move north and east to cope with drugs. corn production to shift northward of seasons, especially winters, get warmer. total crop production for the nation could decrease even with higher yields. most alarming are the projections for municipal water supplies. cities will face severe water

shortages by 2050 at the same time the east coast will struggle with higher sea level areas. rainfall will be increasingly concentrated with summer and autumn with long and dry winters with more frequent flooding during growing season. the reports authors left no doubt about the governments need to begin adapting to those planning planning. the politics of climate change won't be the driving issue. you see, this would report was issued by the chinese of academic and cheaper there national future. it may be that the us is the only country who sees through the alleged kind climate change hoax. or it could be another area like textiles, cars or computers where we will be of follower. let us know what you think. send e-mails to mailbag at u.s. farm report.com or call and leave us the voicemail. coming up, i young couple makes friends and build the business on the north pennsylvania are

performed. stay with us. the second half of u.s. farm report is coming up.