she adds much needed expertise to our lineup. welcome aboard, tyne. >> thanks. the labor department is having second thoughts on proposed changes to child labor laws. the department says it will take more time to consider changes to the so call parental exception. critics say the original rules would impact how children learn a business from their parents and relatives. the winter wheat crop is holding strong in most areas but not all. the ag department says about half the crop in both kansas and oklahoma is rated good to excellent. scattered showers have pushed the crop along. in texas it's another rough start. just a quarter of the crop is in the top category. changes in an order for texas

cotton crop, agents predict there will be more cotton in dry land versus irrigated acres. with hundreds of producers on hand, attendance hit a new high at the "top producer" seminar held this week. greg halverson was named the top producer of the year. the family-owned business, black gold farms, farms 20,000 acres in 11 states. those are the headlines. now back to john for crop watch. >> crop watch begins in allen county, kansas, where wheat

growers say they're way behind in winter precipitation. in dover, missouri, one of our viewers say, with above normal temperatures farmers are in the field with tiling and terrace work on the way. up next, we're headed back to the "top producer" senator to talk to bob utterback and greg gold. please stay with us. >> building equality for 100 years... turn to morton to make your dreams come true.

top producer seminar this week, >> with three veteran market experts at the "top producer" seminar this week, i began by asking bab utterback about the -- bob utterback about the nearly unthinkable possibility of another disappointing corn crop in 2012. >> what happens is prices will stay in the upper $6 range. maybe even $7. i would challenge you -- i will revert back to that we have kind of fallen in love with the high profit levels we'd seen in the marketplace. >> what's not to love, bob? >> it's not normal. it's abnormal to have all this over production costs. i would say if you look at historical averages, 50 to 70

dollars is more the norm. so... and i think we're on a supply growth curve over the next three to five years, where the demand curve is starting to flatten out. ethanol usage is not going to explode. i would suggest to you exports are going to be good but not at a heavy rate. so we're coming to a time period where the profit margin will have a period of being squeezed in the 2013-2014 time period. i don't have to say you have to have low prices. i think the profit margins are going to be squeezed and this is something we have to address. >> what about you, mark? are you concerned about the demand side of it? >> i'm certainly concerned about demand out here. greg is kind of an expert out

here, on china, but from what i see, we see them backing off the last couple months, so that concerns me. it's been -- we've never in this down there i had three years of increasing trend-line yield, so it would be unprecedented to have the third year. if we do something in these markets that's unprecedented, we could have an unprecedented reaction and price. i would say that we might have to go a little higher. but i believe that -- i was taught in the university of illinois, in ag school, many of you might remember tom and he always used to say, mother nature takes care of excesses and mother nature takes care of deficits. i hope mother nature takes care of the deficits. >> what about china, greg? what's your outlook? we're talking about a percent

off of 10% growth. >> i think the chinese leadership is more interested in control. they just announced the other day that they'll increase crushing capacity another 12 million metric tons. so their biggest thing will be civil unrest and having their food inflation, keeping that at bay, that will be the no. 1 task for them. but the control factor is starting to ring loud and clear. people that have been selling in china, i think they're going to be squeezed out and you'll see the state-run grain companies probably expand in a tremendous way over the next three to five years. >> we talked this career how there used to be a famed battle for acres. if it is a battle, it's one of

the quietest ones i've ever seen. new crop does not seem to be reflecting a whole lot of urgency compared to old crop. how are you reading it? >> i've heard statements in the past couple of days showing new profits going to about 2.2, but that's going to draw acres out of corn back into beans. i think that's nonsense. i think if you can plant the corn, if you get the weather, you're going to plant the corn. until we get that corn-bean ratio somewhere north of 2.5 we're not really going to have a strong incentive to switch acres. you guys love corn. i really believe we're going to see somewhere between 95, 96 million acres of corn planted if mother nature cooperates. >> give me a number real quick. 95, 96? >> i'm more 96.35 officially. i think if there's any error to

be erred, it's more acres than less, if mother nature cooperates. but also, i think there's an argument that trend line is probably too high. probably 161 is probably -- because of the expansion in the corn belt. >> well, we'll have to leave it there. we'll be back in a moment.

>> when we continued the questions on this week's round table, i turned to gregg hunt to update the developments in the mf global bankruptcy. >> i know when they went to trading publicly, they obviously, you know... i think a lot of people didn't realize they changed. but i keep it real simple. they apparently stated they audited mf global on thursday and friday was the day before they went bankrupt that monday morning. i can't wrap my arms around why it's taken this long to find this money, with the vast amount of resources they're using right now. it's just incomprehensible to me. that said, a lot of people,

when this happened, you know, knew that a lot of the money came with a small amount of the margin, and for about two weeks, everybody was on pins and needles thinking, well, they're going to blow this guy out, or that guy out. we had that report coming up two days later that could have really caused a lot of pain to some clearing firms on top of it that were financially right. but i think it's settled down now. there's other issues out there that are driving the way money flows that are far more apparent than what's happened in mf global. >> it hasn't changed the attitude all up and down the market, didn't it? >> what i see, the main flux of news has certainly settled down. some guys are even saying that 100% of the money as of last

night, that the two trustees are fighting over releasing the information and it's a mess. i think what's important for you as american farmers is, what is the impact on you? you have to make a decision in your life, do you want to use the markets, even though maybe money and funds aren't guaranteed anymore, that just the transactions are guaranteed? is the money safe? i'm doing a breakout session in a little bit on the whole lessons of this global situation but i think the key thing you have to ask yourself is, do you have more risk in not using the market or using them? i would say clearly the risk for the american farmer is far greater if you don't use these markets than if you use them. when we see in years past, with ethanol plants going out of business, when a local grain elevator may go out of business, that was a shock to you, the farmer.

you didn't get paid. the bankrupts hit. did that stop you from being in the grain business? no. it made you look more closely at who you're doing business with. we'll get into specifics later on, but i believe there's far greater risks in not using these markets than using them. >> i think the risk now is a lot more clear-cut than we saw before. we haven't talked much about soybeans. is there a possibility that we could reach a soybean -- you know, if no more rain happens for the rest of february in brazil, that we could reach a soybean that could truly threaten growth, notwithstanding what mark said? >> i think soybean acres are going to drift up, not as much as corn. the high was 77.04 in the last

few years. i think you're probably drifting toward 76. i think in areas you're going to see soybean growth increase, i've been hearing a lot of yield response, in the missouri area, arkansas, the dryer areas, you're going to see those areas shift more to beans and that's my response. also, i would want to build upon the comment, one other thing on mf global, is the third-party agreement risk, that farmers now assume, if we do see the european bank crisis continue and we have a monetary crisis, the third-party agreements are increasing. when the ethanol plants imploaded, these are risks that you're going to have to manage. >> you mentioned a new risk. is there a new risk on the horizon that we simply have not been covering?

because it seems like another one pops up. is there anything we need to check up? we just have a few seconds here. >> there's always the potential of a black swan out there. if any of us had a clue what it was -- we could certainly tell you. >> they're unpredictable. >> manage the risk today to be in position today for whatever happens tomorrow. i think that's something that has held our customers pretty well. >> that's it, from the "top producer" seminar in 2012. we'll be right back.

>> mike joins us now with the weather. we still don't know what a cold- wester super bowl would be like. >> people are coming in, they're thinking, is this all winter is like in the midwest? that's kind of amazing but we

do see changes coming as we head through this week. you can see the southern part of the jet stream. we start to be zonal. we are starting to see trophyness developing. we have that second shot coming in to the northern plain states. you'll notice the southern part of the jet kind of stays and that will keep that cold front from taking the real cold air very far south. but it definitely looks like a very cold trend for the north eastern plain states and the northeast, because that is very cold air from canada. it's definitely going to be turning colder. of course the jet stream so far has stayed mainly up. there is the arctic front just

starting to come in to northern minnesota. really, most of the country is mild as we start the week. pretty wet, though. good news for the drought areas. now, as we head toward wednesday, we'll see that arctic front blasting southward into the tennessee river valley. very cold air into the great lakes. showers and thunderstorms in florida. snow in parts of new england, scattered showers along that arctic front. a little snow over the eastern edge of the rockies. that's typical as that cold air comes southward. the really cold stuff doesn't get way into the southeast, it looks like, but that second cold front is even stronger. that will be into the ohio river valley by friday with lake effect snows starting to accumulate for a change. scattered showers through the

southeast and also parts of texas. again, good news for some of those drought areas. we'll be back with the longer- range forecast next.

at the most recent meeting of the federal reserve open market committee >> at the most recent meeting in the federal reserve open market committee, a decision was announced to leave interest rates at effectively zero until late 2014. not only was this a new policy of disclosure, but it marks an historic duration for any federate policy. in case you've forgotten, the fed first dropped the rate in december of 2008. ever since then, those of us who borrow money to operate businesses have rejoiced at rates of as low as 3 to 4%. this policy has now gone on long enough for it to seem normal. it is anything but. in fact because of the time delay in savings deposits, the full effect of a zero interest rate is now just being felt, as

longer-term saving certificates mature, investors are watching five or six% yields, for exampling being replaced with rates under 1%. even with no payoff, the world cannot seem to get enough u.s. government debt. investors are actually paying 1 to 2% to loan the u.s. money. one of the reasons for this has been hard for me to grasp. there is simply enormous wealth available to invest and fewer safe assets to buy. despite warnings of skyrocketing rates any time now, it is clear we have entered a time when cash is not king. let us know what you think. send us e-mail or call and leave us a voice mail. coming up in our next half hour, baxter black. plus, a visit to an award- winning dairy in maryland. stay with us. plan

today on u-s farm report... the links between food and obesity prompt a >> today on u.s. farm report, the links between food and obesity prompt actions to upgrade our choices and food content. meteorologist mike hoffman issues his own february outlook on the end of winter. and we meet an award-winning dairy farm family in maryland. u.s. farm report is brought to you by the enlist weed control system and by the 2012 chevy silverado hd. >> hello and welcome to u.s.

farm report. i'm john phipps. the growing attention in the medical community on obesity is certainly providing ample news fodder. but it's also prompting industry reactions. our gigantic food industry is beginning to send financial signals to meet those consumer expectations. this is trickier than it sounds, since we often say one thing and eat another. it is at such moments of change that opportunities arrive along the food chain to anticipate and exploit long-term payoffs. we'll try to spotlight those pioneers as we see them emerge. let's get started with the headlines. the newest member of our team is tyne morgan. >> thank you. florida lawmakers are taking steps to prevent people on food stamps from buying junk food. this week a florida state

senate committee passed a bill that would make snacks and fast food off limits to people on these programs. it would also prohibit the use of food stamps at fast food restaurants. meanwhile, colorado is taking aim at junk foods in school cafeterias. state lawmakers are considering a ban on all foods with transfats. the measure would ban transfats found in vending machines also. several states already limit transfats in school cafeterias. the desire -- toby tells us people are working on ways to up the nutrition content on many popular foods. >> many people may have

abandoned their resolutions to live healthier by late january. they are trying to make foods more healthier by reducing sodium and fat and increasing fiber. >> we're trying to do it in foods that people like that taste good rather than telling people they've got to eat more fruits and vegetables and they ignore you. we're trying to find ways to put the healthier components in foods that people actually eat. >> and people eat plenty of hamburgers. they're adding beans to beef burgers. >> these patties can be incorporated into school lunch programs and sold as an alternative to fattier hamburgers. they are also working on ways to make these healthful foods fresher. they are conducting research on

rapid freezing of foods. in a matter of minutes, this method can freeze fish filets. it also can make food safer. >> by looking at the effect of the freezing on the food, it can be moisture feet. >> the research shows it's quicker, takes up less space and reduces labor costs. this is toby blanchard reporting. >> and that's it for news. meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with the national forecast. >> and unlike most of this winter, we now have a split jet stream. what i mean by that is the very mild air through the southern tier of states for this time of year. the northern jet is what's been

holding back the very cold air in canada. looks like that, as we head through this week, is going to be changing. a little bit of a trough as we start next week, so a lot of rain through the appalachians all the way down to the gulf coast. in the drought areas, that's very good news. any moisture is fantastic news. looks like very little coming into the west point at this point, because the ridge builds up in western canada. that forces the trough through the northeast. so the first shot will come to the great lakes but the southern jet is going to keep that front from going too far south. as we head toward friday, we'll see that drop a little bit but we're still talking a situation where these fronts are going to start to stall out. good news again, more showers and thunderstorms for the southeast, also parts of texas

down into new mexico and with that frigid air coming southward. we are looking at lake-effect snow showers through the great lakes. let's go to next week. this is february 12 through the 18. below normal for the southeast and also below normal for most of the great lakes. but for the dakotas back through the west, looks above normal to me at this point. as far as precipitation is concerned, a lot of the country looks fairly dry. above normal for parts of the great lakes into the northeast. now the 90-day outlook, we're going to go above normal for the southeast. into the four corner region also. and as far as precipitation over the next 90 days, below normal for the southwest, texas, parts of the southeast. above normal, then, as you can  see for the northeast and parts

of the great lakes. so that's not real good news there as far as the southeast and texas but they've done a lot better than we thought they would. >> yeah. they've gotten some relief there. thank you, mike. spirit of the heartland is next.

heartland takes us to the rolling hills of maryland to meet a dairy >> spirit of the heartland takes us to the rolling hills of maryland to meet a dairy producer recognized as one of the nation's best. the dairy farm they run is not one of the biggest but their attention towards genetics makes the farm stand out. clinton has our story. >> reporter: you can hear it in the air and seep it on her

face. life is just about perfect for donna meyer. >> it's your occupation but it's your life too. it's what you do all the time. >> reporter: what she's running is a small dairy in maryland. it's an occupation that started shortly after saying "i do." >> we actually started farming with my father-in-law and mother-in-law after we got married. then we bought this place and went on our own. >> reporter: today, the family form is about 300 -- the family farm is about 300 acres. even though it's a relatively small operation, like the big guys, challenges remain. >> it's always about the milk prices. it fluctuates. now what we're getting paid is about 20. you need to get more just to break even. >> what's helped meyer and her family hold on is focusing on

quality genetics. >> we were lucky that we had opportunities that arose so that we could afford to just be able to milk 55 cows. and that gives us the extra base income that we can save, rather than put a lot of money out to get bigger. >> reporter: it's a management decision that's catching on at the world dairy expo in madison, wisconsin. in 2011, donna was named dairy woman of the year. >> to be singled out is... it's surprising but i'm very grateful and it's quite an honor. >> reporter: while the industry sings her praises, donna is simply thankful for the opportunity to make a living doing what she loves. >> it's a great place to raise our family. it was great to raise our two

girls. it doesn't get any better than the fact that my three grandchildren are here. they own animals. they're a part of it. it's just been very, very good to us and we've -- we feel very blessed. >> reporter: for the u.s. farm report, i'm clinton griffiths reporting. >> thanks, clinton. the expo is now accepting nominees for the 2012 rewards, which include dairyman and dairywoman of the year. the winners will be honored this october in madison, wisconsin. next week we're headed to the lone star state. the story next weekend of how they're ridding farms of hogs. >> u.s. farm report, the spirit

of the countryside...

>> i think it's always looking ahead at what may happen, just like what's happened with roundup. we thought -- and it was -- a godsend. so we have to keep looking at, in the future, as to what may happen to us and probably guard against it earlier than what we have at this time. we have to be very mindful of what is coming. >> i want to grow more bushels per acre. that's the goal of every producer, i think, out there, but how can you do it in a cost- effective way that's going to leave everything in a better situation in 10, 15 years than when you got it? we're just trying to grow more on the same acres.

>> baxter black on u.s. farm report is brought to you by your beef checkoff. to learn more about how you promote your product, visit mybeefcheckoff.com. >> baxter black has tips for taking care of your local bet. >> the number of rural veterinarians is diminishing, so if you have one, take care of him or her. i read an article recently by a rural dvm entitled, before you call your vet, i'll try and clear up any confusion you might have. suggestion no. 1, if you have no intention of

paying for the vet's services, do not call. on the surface this sounds self- explanatory, but to be more specific it definitely includes the spotted owl that flew into your picture window, the neighbor's dog that you hit with your truck trying to drive him off your sheep. suggestion no. 2, do not call your veterinarian if what you want is illegal. say you've been quarantined by the federal livestock department for tb, having poor facilities or misplacing your last vet bill. suggestion no. 3, always capture and identify the animal in question before calling the doctor. capture means in something smaller than 40 acres. the one just left of the red cow, or is that the mule?

anyway, which cow did you say had... well, the doctor's article included many more useful tips on how to better use your rural veterinarian, but it all boiled down to this, take care of your local cow vet. treat him like visiting royalty. pay him like you do your bookie. share your pig sausage with him. and it's always nice to offer to cosign his note for his house, car or boat... because remember, he can always desert you for a comfortable cat and dog process in some place like orlando. a rancher called to say that his bull had broken his leg. i told him he'd probably better shoot him. he called back to say now he had a bull with a broken leg and a bullet wound.

this is baxter black. >> baxter will join us again in two weeks. when we come back, tractor tales will be next. please stay with us.

welcome back...tractor tales comes to us this week from northern illinois. this minneapolis >> welcome back. tractor tales comes to us this week from northern illinois. this was one of the tractors created by the moline company. the first tractor was

manufactured in 1937 as the model z. >> we have a 1954 ube. this tractor, we worked on it. it's kind of one of the workhorses we use. we have done a lot of field work with it, but it's a '54. the farmer actually sits up so he can look down at his crops. vision line actually started about '51 or '52. this is '54. this is one of the last uv's because the next year they came out with what they called a special. it had power steering, which this does not have. this was owned by a farmer south of town. my dad sold this new to a farmer south of town and he passed away quite a few years

ago, and he had three or four of these. his son-in-law became ill and he wanted one of the tractors to work, so we did some work for him, and in trade, he gave this one to us for the bill. and so this has been totally redone. we took it down to nothing. there was no paint. this one took just about a year. during the wintertime. we can work mostly in the winter in the shop. this is one of the first one we painted ourselves. another painted this as a first try. we let him go with it. he did a good job. we do things for plow days and mostly shows. >> don't forget, if you'd like to watch tractor tales, head to our home page. you can find us on facebook and also download the shows on i-

tunes. >> the trinity united church of christ is celebrating it's 150th anniversary. when the congregation was formed, it was made up of mostly german immigrants. today many of the decentants from the original family still worship there. our thanks to tracy dresser for sharing the history of trinity united. as always, we'd like to learn about your home church as well. please stay with us. the mailbag is next. >> country church salute is brought to you by farmers feeding the world, agricultural leading the way in feeding a hungry planet. learn more. give generously. dream huge with us.

diimonds.. on a budget.this -y gifts.. that won't break the bank... monday on fox45 morning news. -3 inside the farm

report mailbag.... a viewer objects to my stand on >> time now for a weekly look inside the old farm report mailbag. a viewer objects to my stand on global warming because it fails a humility test. maybe humanity is simply arrogant enough to assume they have the power to be responsible for every good and bad thing that happens on the planet. tom, this is an attempt to

reframe a scientific debate as a philosophical or religious agreement. however, for me it fails on multiple grounds. first, belief in global warming does not automatically mean or even imply i think humans cause every good and bad thing on the planet, to use your words, nor did i say that. second, while it's easy to see one human as puny, multiplying that one person by several billion at the very least adds several zeros to the results. we have erased from the globe several species from woolly mammoths to passenger pigeons. trivializing human environmental impact also undercuts the relentless efforts of farmers around the

world to conserve pressure topsoils. it is not arrogant in my opinion to accept responsibility for our environmental impact. in fact, it is just the opposite. as always, we want to hear there you. send comments to mailbag@usfarmreport.com or leave us a voice mail at 1-800- 792-4329. for al, mike and tyne, i'm john phipps saying thank you for watching u.s. farm report. we'll be working next week to do even better.

♪ grew up in a small town and when the rain would fall down ♪ ♪ i'd just stare out my window ♪ ♪ dreaming of what could be and if i'd end up happy ♪ ♪ i would pray i could breakaway ♪ ♪ i'll spread my wings and i'll learn how to fly ♪ i'll do what it takes till i touch the sky ♪ ♪ i gotta make a wish, take a chance, make a change, and break away ♪ ♪ out of the darkness and into the sun ♪ ♪ i won't forget all the ones that i love ♪ ♪ i gotta take a risk, take a chance, make a change, and break away ♪