good news for bag exports is more demand continues to drive prices. along the way, trade agreement is poised to smooth the path were even more farm exports. and mild winter has cattle producers cautious about relief. hello, and welcome to us farm report. i'd jump it. it's increasingly doubtful that future meet demand in the us will match consumption rates of the recent past for over 80 of reasons. between the demographic shifts, consumer preferences and what alternatives, but domestic demand for protein will likely not fully utilize our ability to produce. being while there are customers around the globe to need more protein and finally have enough

income to enter the market. it is clear our act future will be linked to global and not just local demand. it's hard to develop the marketing plan for, say, mozambique, if you don't have any idea what part of france it is in. >> us agriculture exports hit record $137 billion in 2011 but the trend for 2012 is not as strong. it puts experts, exports about 141 million. it also raised its imports projection. added up and i trade surpluses is pegged at $24 billion, about half of last year. it's been years in the making and now i trade between the us and south korea has the go date of march 15. exaggeration to the free trade agreement started more than five years ago.

president obama signed the trade deal back in october, however it's taken several months to figure out the fine print of the deal. when the fda goes into effect on march 15, almost two thirds of exports will become duty- free including we, corn, soybeans for crushing, cotton and variety of fruit crops. in the southern planes were cattlemen hope to recover from the year of record drought, mild winter has brought an early spring. we pastors in many parts of oklahoma have started maturing to first hollow stem, which means many cattle will need to find forage elsewhere. protesters have been good while they lasted. >> we have had very good conditions, moisture and good weather. the wheat has grown and the cattle that we have out, even though the total number we have out is less than normal, the cattle we have had out has

done better than normal. we have had some blow the macbook problems, and, it will work out. >> those are the headlines. now back to john for crop watch. >> crop watch this week examines the impact of bizarre season. we heard from the farmer in livingston illinois. and soil moisture is adequate. he put down nitrogen 10 days ago. the louisiana growers as they have had 16 inches of rain in february and because of that very little or no burn down has been done. inform new york state, of farmers that they have 3 feet of snow this winter. normally it's 10 feet or

better. no snow cover right now and temps have been in the 40s. when we come back, it's time to talk markets. our farm director is joined by jason mouth and show about. discussion begins in just two minutes. stay with us.

roundtable guests this week, we have jason maas from rock associates, and show from straight financial. bring us up-to-date on what the market did on friday. >> friday was kind of eight

choppy trade. old contract and soybeans ended up firm, of little lower in the session and came back strong. new crop corn has been the big issue lately, really done nothing but kind of weakened over the week. we are not done enough by 50's into the deep corn contract which is not attracted to producers at this point. >> a lot of the producers down there at the show were asking me about the usda outlook meeting that was coming up and what that was going to do and if that would make the difference. give me some information. >> sure. thursday and friday this week, the act outlook forum took place this week which is really an update meeting and what it does is space on the outlook forecasts and they constructed them back in november. but what they do and not form is come up with new balance sheets and that's the first one again until may when the official

numbers come out. >> so was the information positive or negative or did it make any difference at all? >> the market to trade with them to be the beginning of the session today, but the way finished on friday underscores why it did ñ april. whether it's the acre of the yields were the focus shift to the ground directing that we get back for the acreage support at the end of march, etc. so what is actually affecting the market now? based on this report you would think there would be some movement somewhere. so what is affecting the market? outside money, if that involved? >> i don't think it's so much outside money but there's a lot of variables in the market right now. there are too many unknowns going forward with this new crop and corn soybean

association. the numbers are hardly set in stone right now, 94 million acres will be tough to achieve especially when you consider the move that the corn versus soybean spreads have made. i think there is a lot of money out there just waiting. and when you talk about outside money coming in, if you go back to the mf global, volumes have dropped off significantly since then, so there may be pigmented waiting on the sidelines to see what happens next. >> so an interesting highlight is that the combined forecast for corn and beans of 94 and 75 million acres is not all that different from what was intended to be planted last year. so in absence of the drastic planting acres that happened in corn and soybeans, what the usda came out with is not all that different. >> they were talking all crops,

not just corn and soybeans. we will plant more acres than we did in 1944 which is the largest number of acres that we ever had planted. that means we will raise some crop somewhere along the line and i would think that would get us into the market. but you are saying that's not really in the market? >> i think what the usda came up with an outlook form was largely built into the market. the 94 million-acre figure has been around since last fall. and what form should be considering right now is, what if the acreage is larger? because as he alluded to, it is very early and it's time to start looking at the what if's in either direction from that. >> well, we either need to protect ourselves to keep ticket vintage. and that's probably what i producers should do?

>> at this time company of producer has to go off the notion that anything is possible. 94million is possible, 95 or 96. on the flipside we might have the weather issue or prices have switched things around. so you have to be protected one way or the other whether it's using cash sales for other strategies, i think it's too much on the table this year especially with breakeven as high as they are. >> when we come back, i'd like to talk to you and get some ideas what could, although we hope doesn't come up into us when we returned to us farm report in just a few minutes. you have just a few chances

roundtable guests this week, we have the couple of guests. jason, what is something that either could be positive for agriculture or maybe negative

for agriculture, that we all need to be concerned about or just think about? >> one of the more immediate logical things that could happen is the usda revising some of our south american production forecasts in brazil and argentina. some of those south american agencies in those two countries have already started lowering the usda in march, the world supply and demand will probably lower those further and probably in the lower scope of trade and the way that commodities flow -- that's really what helped set the stage for how many acres we need here. >> so you are thinking needed assessments will be lowered for brazil and argentina? >> yes, and that would be the usda catching up. now there has been some recharge type things in those countries that have already taken place, but right now that's an assessment of trying to figure out how much damage has been done.

>> you have something that you think about also? >> south american production estimates continue to be ratcheted down. every time new estimate comes out, it seems to be lower than the one that preceded it. i think that's an issue and you have to think in your head, where will the markets be? and i think that going forward, i would go for the same thing in my opinion. i don't estimates get a lot lower. we take the chunk off the top. going forward, we have to follow or decide whether to follow the reports. if the usda would come up with the 95 or 96 million corn acre in march, it will probably be too late to do the marketing. so you have to look forward to say was possible between that

report. >> well higher or lower, i would encourage producers to shift higher or lower to what you think your producers will do. don't stop at how high or low the perspective crops might go. planting is coming up pretty soon and it's time to get to that present so it minimizes risk. and, what you are telling me is, i need to know where i'm going and i need to cover my costs already. >> there is the minimum% sold that every farmer has that dictates what's the maximum amount of risk that they should be able to take right now. we would say that getting to that 20% sold on new crops and beans would be the minimum

ticket to as high as 50 or 60% depending on the risk tolerance and ñrother specific factors. >> basically what we are saying, the crops will go down to the basis is very high in the country, and producers have corn and beans that are still being stored out there, and maybe they ought to hang onto little bit and take advantage of çthe base is? >> the producer historically has more storage than ever. and from the historical relative standpoint has more cash than they have had endless tears right now, so i guess no one is in the big rush to sell the stuff. we have seen $7 corn and $8 corn, they will either walk in

the basis for us all some cash, one way or the other, they will take in some strong cash market. >> if you date back to early december, a lot of people in industry, market advisors and the commercials all had the short-term outlook. and come mid-january we would start to see this often. so i think in the strong term short-term basis, some would say that farmers might be reluctant to sell, but as long as it has persistent, it's worth reevaluating something that says more about the actual supply. >> the supply might be shorter than we think it is mkçat this point. >> corn made new highs today in the spreads, so i think the market is telling us something. >> okay. we will be backusus farm report in just a moment.

mike joins us now with the weather, and i haven't seen anything given up on winter. tell me about the big warm-up coming for spring? >> well, and what that means, a lot of rain and snow over the next couple weeks as the storms continue to trek eastward. a lot of cold air cooled in canada and it will become southward for short period of times and it warms up continuously in the southland, and you folks down in the south of the educational goal down. we have one little talk there as we start the week coming into the western great lakes, another into the northwest. that one tracks across the northwest, and another one into montana thursday, friday, on

into saturday and another when diving into the northwest on saturday. that's four different props over the seven day period of time. they just keep coming and each one will bring an area of rain. there is her fair amount of moisture. i think we will see an storm system in the upper great lakes as we start the work week on the day with snow up that way, but southward into the ohio valley, of the pit of the disturbance in the northeastern gulf will be spreading showers in the far southeast. oyster down there, especially in southern georgia, and, pacific storm system diving into the northwest, and this dives into the southeast by wednesday. it might be further north than we have shown here but there will be an area of snow in the

northern section with rain further to the south. this will be away system through the middle of the week as it moves through areas from the mississippi valley to the east coast. the next storm system coming into the pacific northwest was not zealous and rain across the coast. the air is cold enough in the pacific northwest that even the ballads are seeing the fair amount of snow buggy systems. but that system is coming into the pacific northwest and two sections as we head into friday and that will be causing brain and much of the northwest, but another system coming into the pacific northwest as you can see. friday will be the dry day up and down the eastern seaboard. we will check in with their forecasts coming up in the next half-hour.

it was almost obligatory that i drone on about gasoline prices for days about the topic of the moment. but strangely enough i find there's much to be optimistic about despite the looming increases. first off, many of us have sung this song before and know full well that the world does not end with oil prices spike. because of previous run-up to our consumption patterns are much more flexible. i'll partly due to the economy, innovations have helped decrease demand an intensity not seen since 1977. in the mean time technology and the same high oil prices have encouraged the boom in exportation from domestic sources. i have friends in kansas and southern illinois who have been surprised by so-called booze hounds offering lucrative leases. i do not dispute the impact of much higher gas prices, but i suggest we have more tools to

enable us to mitigate them. shopping online has even been cited as the major factor in lower demand. we are using more mass transit especially new paint the buses between bigger cities, and even on our farm, we have been blown away by the efficiency of new diesel engines which cover far more acres with fewer gallons. the dollar increase in fuel is not that it is tv. i air gas prices are not good news but we are better positioned than ever to manage the latest increase. they, let us know what you think. send us e-mails or call and leave us up voicemail. coming up in the next half- hour, classic car takes the spotlight in tractor tales. all that and more coming up

next.

today on us farm report. the raw milk and medicine to biological reality as consumers discover the risks are real. just as we saw with the new us

chinese president, links between foreign exchange students and american funds can have surprising future reports. and baxter black puts new technology to the ultimate test. us farm report is brought to you by the less we control system and by the 2012 chevy silverado hd. hello and welcome to us farm report. i'm john phipps. we have the story in the moment which i hope might be the first of many such announcements. several of our current health scourges including cancer may be amenable to control vaccines. microbiology is making procedures advances and right now it appears that some of humankind's biggest medical challenges may be encountered by boosting our own immune systems. it's my dream that my grandchildren will view most forms of cancer the way we do polio or smallpox, of sad

affliction of the past. >> thank you and hello. the result of new government studies will enjoy the unpasteurized product. the center for disease control with the study of 13 year-long review. it shows the majority of all dairy related illnesses are related to consumer raw milk. unlike what you buy at the grocery store, raw milk has not been pasteurized. right now, 30 of the 50 states allow the sale of raw milk for human consumption. in this new report, the cdc says the rate of outbreaks caused by pasteurized milk is 100 times greater than outbreaks to pasteurized milk. the study looked at 121. related disease outbreaks which cost 4400 illnesses and three deaths. of those 60% were linked to raw

milk products. the study also shows that children are more likely to get seriously ill from the bacteria and raw milk. meanwhile researchers say they are getting close to developing vaccine for salmonella. according to the usda, salmonella is the most frequent case of foodborne illnesses. scientists at the university of california davis are using mice to develop the vaccine. it's been three years in making that researchers think they are on the right track. salmonella illnesses are often connected to undercooked beef, poultry and eggs. regulation that will change how ends our house may be running into roadblocks. next week to propose the bill that would move into enriched pages. it was based on the proposal written by the humane society of the united states and the united egg producers. two leaders in congress have

resisted moving to the committee. these groups are opposed to the legislation during it will go beyond the egg industry. the person who let the immigrant who is an independent producer. it's been criticized by many for sitting down at the humane society and writing this mandate. i also talked to bob krauss about being in this tough spot. >> as part of the united egg t( producers and someone running my own family farm, i think it's outstanding. i wish there was the way to get where we wanted to go without legislation, but because of the ballot initiative process and the way states are broken up into individual packages, it would be extremely hard for any egg producers to decide what he was going to invest and how he was going to

move his family farm forward into the next generation. >> we will have the complete story next weekend. that is it for news, mike hoffman joins us now with the national forecasts. >> are couple of tries coming to the upper midwest and great lakes as we start the week. but the better trough coming into the rockies and the northwest as we head through monday. several areas of precipitation and the disturbance in the southeast, and, we are changing around at the coastline. the northern rockies causing snow even into the interior valleys which is unusual at this time of year because it has turned colder that way. but pretty good trot coming into the west now and we move

into the mississippi valley as we go to wednesday. that means snow to the north and rain to the south, not sure where the line will be but it depends on the track of the storm as they come west to east. the next trot coming in on the pacific northwest and another is the lingering offshore. it looks like friday, snowboards, rape center and south. let's go further out. we go to next week, and this will take us to march fourth through march tenth. i still think we will be in the similar weather pattern and with the jet stream moving from the southeast, you will see generally warmer temperatures to the north and generally warmer pictures to the south. and the northern planes and northern rockies was not below normal, mid-atlantic and tennessee

valley back in texas. and as the storm systems come into the pacific northwest, that will be wet through the rockies and what they pick up golf moisture it will be above normal as well. now, the 30 day outlook for temperatures, we will stick that up for little further into the ohio valley and missouri valley, and temperatures all the way to the gulf coast. temperatures to the northern part of new england and back into the pacific northwest. as far as precipitation, above normal continues, also into the pacific northwest. and i think some of the things that we have been lucky about this winter that didn't turn out really the way we thought is this area. because it had more rain than we thought it would.

>> yes. this is good news. this is the same thing we have had the last two weeks, or two months. >> thank you mike. the spirit of the heartland is ç next. halfway around

the world is getting the full farm experience here in america. an exchange acid the kid from halfway around the world is getting the full porn screens here in america. an exchange student in south korea, against hispanic couple months and tennessee. in this report, check penny edits to the show ring. >> experiencing tennessee culture and tennessee agriculture. jim lee is pretty much like any 15 -year-old who just happens to be 7000 miles and 14 time

zones from home. he's an exchange student from korea and getting it introduces introduction to southern farm life. >> i think at the very good experience for me. >> he is now up full-fledged tennessee for each person and taking part in livestock shows like this one help him. >> i work with, pigs and sheep. maybe i will show the cows also. >> he has owned papers are actually pretty smart and don't require as much hands-on care as sheep and horses, but all animals need attention. >> when i come here i can learn about a lot of things like, how to feed the animals and cleaning. i like it. >> he is an urban kid, he's from so, one of the world's largest cities with more than 25 million people in its metro region. just come into overall area was

an adjustment. one thing he has noticed about tennessee is it's not as congested. >> when i look around, there are pigs and cows walking on the ground. and it's in the country, so it's very called. >> he is at hand, of good worker. >> john is using this opportunity to teach june all about animals. >> wanted to in the same thing that we try to teach our four h. kids. we used the handle and put it on the stick and then, all it takes to raise the hog. >> june will be here through spring and will attend more four h. events and raise more animals. he's making the most of his tennessee experience which means lots of other kids and

learning what life is like for them down on the farm. as the kid but now with the country view. >> june plans to attend, turn to the us to go to college. next week we will travel to the bluegrass is paid for some first-time stirrup hunters. the heaviest landowners are enjoying the sweet rewards of not having an maple tree. up next, what happens when baxter black gets lost clicks will be back with the answer. welcome back.

with the help of technology, getting lost is

easier to avoid than ever before...but that doesn't mean it's impossible. baxter black joins us from welcome back. with the help of technology, getting lost is harder to do but not impossible. baxter black joins us from somewhere out there. source of pride amongst cowboys is knowing the lay of the land. many of poor fool gets lost and they figure you aren't much of the hand. they told me, we will meet up with old trick. and that up with me that the treaty. and i said, i'm on it. daylight poked in my windshield. i turned it to the grass

station and i should have shot myself like there because nothing was like they describe it. no-caps and standing out exposed, and where his various creek supposed to be clicks the map showed tourist attraction including, i swear, noah's ark. i crossed the wars in the cow creek and critics need for nickels and dimes, i called all of them asked 28 times. i drove them crazy and chase my tail at the dog. fighting back panic, i'm thinking, i could die and never be found. i'd like someone who can't find his way out of town. the rope was boss in the truck

driver, and i feared he might be right, so i called him up on the two-way and explained my desperate plight. he said, describing the standings. i looked for alleged mark somewhere. there isn't anything that rocks and mesquite trees out there. he said, sonny, you are almost there. this is baxter black, from out there. baxter joins us again inininininininininininininininin

al pell joins us now for tractor tales. i guess it's not even a tractor? that's right john. we're taking a i'll tell joins us now for track details but it's not attractive this time? we have at different path today. if the 1913 detroiter and it's going to find. individual production was shut

down by the end of the match from the ford assembly line, and the owner tells the story. >> there are some left on the board and there are two left to run. we inherited this from our adoptive grandfather, i believe he does it and eight days. we do to martin luther king and rodeo parade also. he used to drive this from south florida all the way up through michigan. he has a lot of issues with this car. it didn't just sit in the crotch, he used it. it's pretty much bare bones and if it runs, it's because you have to make it aside. you want your hair james -- to start it, you have to can't

crank up front, shift all of your gears and find every single detail. you just can't go to the department store and we had to the it where there is no diagram or place to set it all up, so my dad finally figured out what the plan was with it, and you can been so good. >> so halfway down is the clutch. it's unique, uncle kind of car to drive around. not everyone can say they've driven the 1913 detroiter. and younger kids, they think everything comes with the touchscreen and automatic windows. it's pretty cool, not everyone

can appreciate that. >> roberts grandfather or out of the car for more than 60 years which would have earned him the place in the guinness book of world records. since grandfather didn't pay for the entry. today's country church salute goes to the sun church of grover, north carolina. the first building was constructed in 1917 and four while he served as both the church and at the school that was replaced in 1951. church member randy peters said they had that church and it was from 1969. worship peaked with ç150 membe but now we are down to us or number of faithful. as always, we want to learn

about your home church as well. so we can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us, the mailbag is next. inside the farm

report mailbag... ardyth helmer fr time now to check with the hour mailbag. artist homer bob bell fork south dakota, where is the safety rules might heed the words work ethic. and that is not found in the general population today. but there is the connection between the hard work and work ethic we are found on farms.

but once they are found, they will disappear. but the appropriate test that remained like taking out the trash and mowing the lawn seemed to work as well for teaching. i also find up strong work ethic is missing in our children. children who go to college are stunned ué(kthe study habits o classroom competitors. we have more people working local jobs in our economy as well, and the hardest working people in the us are not farmers, but single mothers. they are virtually never off the job. we nonetheless don't perceive lesser forms of works of the overlooked the work ethic and service management or managers. it is the function of good. you can't be found all across america. and good parents and children

as safely as possible. as always, you can send comments to the mailbag. on junkets. thank you for watching us farm report. thank you for joining us, we'll see you next week and hopefully we will be doing better.