today on u-s farm report... questions about south american production made this we south american production made this week's supply and demand report hot news. kansas farmers welcome possibilities with new regulations to reserve press/public precious water resources. and our roundtable market trouble to north dakota to debate commodity price trends. us farm report is brought to you by the endless weed control system, and by the 2012 chevy silverado hd. hello and welcome to us farm report.

i'm john pitts. while most farmers were puzzling out the friday world supply and demand numbers there was an even bigger report released. after oblong slow, job creation seems to be gaining steam. to me the most interesting statistic was the number that could change, the unemployment number at 8.3%. that was strangely good news because it indicates him discouraged workers are looking for jobs again. unemployment depresses demand for farm products, especially proteins. more people also working needs more tax revenue which is good for the deficit. so after you've given up trying to figure out the numbers, celebrate the job report. >> thank you john, antelope. the usda world supply and demand numbers released friday had a few surprises. the brazilian corn crop was tweaked upward by 1 m illion tons. most analysts had expected baseball dropped. beloved brazilian production was cut more than expected.

for us numbers only weak carryover changed dropping 20 million bushels on increased beating and exports. here are the world ending stock numbers. corn 124.5 million tons. soy 57.3 million tons, down 3 million, and weak, down 16.5. in all it was another head scratching for analysts whose expectations were far more damage to the south american corn crop and lust to soybean no numbers. us economic data from the food institute shows net farm income declined this year. they produced their annual baseline report to congress monday. they protect net farm income will hit 95 billion in 2012 which is down 3 billion from the year ago. the group says it is normal whether the us corn crop could lead to lower prices this fall. they protect planted corn acres at 95 and the half-million

acres. it says, to return to normal yield would result in an average cast prius for $4.81 per bushel down from $5.96 for the current year. water is the most limiting factor in it for culture today but two bosses signed this week that will help to kansas farmers conserve water. one state kept the user or visit policy. the other gives water rights holders more flexibility in how they use their water. those are the headlines. now back to john for crop watch. >> crop watch is brought to you by sfp. putting revolutionary technology to work in the field and helping producers get more from their

fertilizer dollar and their crops. >> crop watch this week is the two-stage swing beginning in the sunflower state. in kansas, the drop known under just the southwestern part of the state is under an extreme drought. the northern half is in better shape. they had 60 degrees and overwhelmed on tuesday and is that it was the great day to start the 2012 crop year. when we come back we are off to the great state of north dakota as our roundtable talks markets with the group of growers. we will be right back.

help! someone help! shut up, you old bag. north this week -

way north - for our marketing round-table. we are headed north this week, way north, while marketing roundtable. it's been an generally mild winter in north dakota.

the national weather service in grand forks said they have 27 inches of snow, half of last year's snow totals. ch is actual's oldest convention this week and that's where our team of experts gathered. >> here in grand forks north dakota, chs agriculture industry day and we have an interesting group of producers that are watching. we are going to be talking about the things that our audience has told us that we need to be talking about. the first thing i think, and what i think is on everyone's mind, not just here, but that's the acreage. what are we going to be planting this year looks. >> well, as you drive around the country, there have been a lot of preparations made to put the horn in this fall and winter. we've had very conducive winter

season ticket fieldwork done. we will get the 94 m illion acres, and i think we will go north about. >> i would agree with that. we see pretty strong corn acres. beans have made our run of it as the bladesof late, and i think we may be north of 94 million acres already. i think if the spring goes well, you can see about that and and like the june crop report i would say. >> jim, i was talking to you earlier about soybeans and there would be shorter carry out. bean and corn acres can do the same places. they don't eat into that 94 million bucks two. >> at the market has been saying to mr. and mrs. producer, not just saying, screaming. listen, take to look at me. we will reward you if you plan this acreage. you have taken too many acres

out of corn, probably -- were poured scorn, you have acres coming out of rice, oats, cotton and hey, and the bean market is desperate looking out to the 2012 and 2013 carry out to get more acres in place before the planters go. and it doesn't have much time to do that, but certainly the table for soybeans versus the table for corn protected is much more in favor of soybeans. we have to be careful here that they don't plan to soybean acres this year. >> would have any crop report coming out -- actually it came out. how effective are crop reports? we've been watching this for some time. andy, i no you have an opinion of crop reports and how they come up with that information. >> i think they do their surveys and stuff like that and they are as accurate as they can be as far as that kind of reporting. but there are better ways to do

it. i work in the insurance industry too and recertify our yields and are acres and the information is out there. there are probably better ways to do it as far as the stock situation, that's the whole deal is the stock reports. and that's the whole deal, how much are we feeding and we see these upper limit, down moves, because the 300 this way or 300 top way on every report and if i was to venture to guess i would say the next report would be bullish on the stocks because i think it's time for them to swing that way. i feel like there's been in a few demands that you could not see of friendly stock report. >> you think it will be friendly. do you think this will be another good year for producers? >> if you look at where the probability that, there is money to be made. it's not gigantic but it's profitable and if you look at the cyclical nature of

agriculture, if you have profit, you take it. it will be of good year. >> i remember a few years ago we thought it would be very good and then we couldn't get anything planted. >> allowed to that comment a lot of it. i think last year was an easy year to market. everybody was good, everyone was very hot shot. everyone bragged about what they did. i don't think it will be that way this year. i think this year will be much more difficult to analyze the market and analyze it correctly because the situation is much different today than it was. be ready for more volatility, a lot more movement and you better have your input costs covered before you get too stretched out because i think this year will be tougher on marketing. >> but the profit substantial

is there? >> you have to be an imposition to take advantage of it. >> will hear more about that when we come back. we will talk about china and the farm bill when the us farm report returns. [applause] ,3

we're waking you p... after you "spring forwarr."where you can go to get a free cup

>> one of the questions from our audience that came earlier needs to be discussed i think by her group here today, and that is what is happening between israel and iran and how that will affect basically agriculture prices, but it won't be limited there. >> i was listening to an interview about warren buffett about two or three weeks ago on

the major network and he said something that i thought was very important. he said, what would change the marketplace that we've seen over the past year, including the stock market and that caused the shakeout. it's not really the banks in europe going under or at the debt structure of the united states, it's i'm major nuclear incident, biological warfare or chemical incidents. that's something that changes the political framework throughout the world. that's between israel, iran and of course the united states is right in the middle. and, that would be what i would call it black swan. it's kind of like 9/11, some of the structural situations we saw in europe, they came out of nowhere and slammed the markets very quick. i'm hoping the situation will

turn into something escalating, but certainly if israel does take up preemptive attack and iran retaliates, oil would probably shoot immediately to 150 or $200. gas goes immediately over five and guess what happens to agriculture prices? if the dangerous situation and it would not take it lightly that they will work it through. maybe, maybe not, but it certainly escalated yesterday. >> we also had another issue that was brought up and that's what's happening to china. apparently the economy is not growing as much? >> i think that's an understatement that the economy is not growing as much over there. what i have seen over the past six months, it's like, they are retail sales are lower than what's been put out. i would say the crude oil price has been hired for over year and everything you do is created with crude oil, your material prices

are too high. so the us is very interested in having that inflation go over there and try to bring him out of the market. it's kind of working to an extent. i'm seeing stuff similar to oa in china and the profitability has been zapped. to say that gdp will be positive is even the stretch right now. i think things are very tough over there. i saw the same stuff about six months ahead before the whole market got really weird on us. >> these are to world issues that are affecting us. we have something here in the united states that will affect us all, the farm bill. >> ultimately you just came out off of eight very good year and as we go into the discussion about trying to cut our spending and balance our budget and solve our debt issues, we

are looking for any place but they can find savings. unfortunately because of any good year in 2011, we are prime target. you saw things trying to get slipped into the budget repair bill that the super committee was trying to put together in august of 2011. basically as we go forward, i would suspect there will be a lot of trimming of payments. your voice needs to be heard, you need to be talking to your representatives and bringing them actual material that they can act on and helping them along in this process. because now the target is on them to cut spending and i believe they will be turning the program. >> i pretty much agree with mike's comment, but as you just said there is a lot of cost

cutting now especially with the election coming up. election years are easy to trade into and as soon as that election is over, the careful for the next two or three months because that's very dangerous time. >> 10 or 15 seconds to give some suggestions? >> i think you need to price up going into the summer. i don't think you can trust anything. i think we are in as uncertain territory as we have ever been. >> i will follow-up with, it will be it good year but you have to take action to make good year because there are plenty of things that can destroy that. >> we will be back with more us farm report in just the moment. [applause]

mike hoffman joins us now

with the weather. i've noticed that even though we are supposed to be getting rain in eastern corn belt, we got storms but not a lot of rain. >> the last two or three can't seem to moisten up as it comes east. we are starting to see that with the drought situation looking worse and worse in parts of western iowa and southern minnesota. even though those areas have gotten a lot of rain, nothing substantial. the big improvement has come in parts of alabama and georgia. even though it's still an extreme drought it's not as nearly as an extreme drought as it was. you can also see western portions of the plane, west texas and eastern new mexico and let's check things out then as far as the jet stream is concerned. we having trouble going through the great lakes, and it will be

pretty warm week, at least through most of it for the corn belt and most of the midwest. you can see the top starting to come eastwards slowly as we head to the weekend. it is very very slow mover as it makes its way onto these. that will be chilly air and the northern rockies by the time we had saturday. day by day, we will see weak systems moving from the east to west across the northern terrorist states. this will be hit and miss showers and thunderstorms from the gulf to the tennessee and ohio river valleys, the better chance of rain through the north there. the next system coming in and out west that stalling out. by wednesday we will see that system not moving very far. some waves along the frontier but a lot of it will be meandering as it moves through the southeast. this is almost summer like weather patterns as it moves through the gulf coast area with just hit

and miss pop-up thunderstorms. there is awake front in the great lakes which may cause the shower. the front is slowly making its way to the southeast and you can see some pretty good snows across the northern portions of the rockies and central rockies as well. we will have the longer range forecast coming up in the next half-hour.

one of the annual rites of spring on our farm is to take old, unused equipment to the local consignment went at the annual rates to spring as the local consignment sale run by our young farmers organization. it's easier than hauling the stuff off to the salvage yard. lately we've been surprised and sometime shocked by the fires that will pay for machinery we

estimate as worthless. we climbed to the back of an old jet, shed and drug of the tool we have been used for i don't know how long. but i'm struggling with the decision to hold it away. the tool in question is an ih 725 eighteenths fullbore file. if there is any bit of technology left it would be the mold board plow. being able to turn that thought was appointed magi dear. this goes all the way back to the fabled deep plow that was the key to agriculture and enhance economic growth in northern europe and the early middle ages. it was vernacular of our profession. in my really apartment if i don't only 12 bucks then i realize i have been through this experience before. deep in my desk drawer is my engineers slide rule which i cannot bring myself to throw away. it seems that for too many of us it was hard to tell where the tool ends and the tool user

begins. let us know what you think. send e-mails to mail back at us farm report.com or call and we must have voicemail. coming up in the next half- hour, opera and family at washington state works together to build the legacy. stay with us, the second half of us farm report is coming right up. today on u-s farm

report... high-prices at the

meat counter are changing american consumption patterns the usda turn to social media to today on us farm report. high prices at the counter are changing american consumption patterns. the usda turns to social media to improve food safety. and, we visit up running operation in washington were the most important crop is inside the hold. us farm report is brought to you by the end must weed control system, and by the 2012 chevy silverado hd. hello and welcome to us farm report. i'm john bit. we are all captive to our recent past. what occurred yesterday of pixar thinking more than events last year. so it is that many farmers, myself included, are more anxious than usual about what weather

patterns this year. the non- winter that many of us saw black trained for months in the western corn belt and the freakishly powerful storms don't reassure much. i think it's likely this mindset will prompt the growing strategies this year. our perception has just become more unpredictable i think. that ought to calm down the market. let's get started with headlines. >> thank you john. consumers are not only pay more at the pump this year but also the grocery store. this causes americans to eat less meat. this creates the price tag on it that's too much for consumers to bear. as american vote to cut corners in their budget, house and the car payment is not negotiable. but what they buy at the store is. the us the contention this year will drop 12.2% compared to five years ago but the biggest tipping that these consumption. tight supply is being blamed

for high prices. >> 40% of the corn produced in the united states goes to ethanol production. must be available for livestock and poultry and with less speed that comes to reduced production. >> this converts pastureland into corn acres which contributes to higher meat prices. government regulations on farmers could cost you in the wallet. the board has done research on what it calls excessive reparations and ever culture. this could raise costs by as much as 25%. the soybean board says those increases could mean consumers paid nearly $17 billion more i fear for meat, milk and eggs. teach free housing for laying hens would increase the cost from $1.68 to $2.10 more per

dozen which would be accosted $2.6 billion to us consumers. last year at producers in the aisle agreed to phase and in which kid is in agreement for activists and customer demands. if you want the latest in food recalls in the state, log onto twitter. usda admitted it was turned into social media. the department says it plans to create any new twitter account for each state. they will post consumer alerts about recalls of meat, poultry and processed egg products. they have created accounts for eight states including texas and new jersey. they say this provides another way for consumers to get critical information passed. that's it for news and meteorologists mike hoffman joins us now with the national forecast. will start the week with the little ripple in the jet stream across the great lakes and that will be producing some rain showers across many parts of the great lakes eventually into the northeast later in the day.

the strip gulf moisture coming with tp that system, a few hit and miss thunderstorms through the tennessee and iowa river valleys. more substantial trough and more substantial moisture in the northwest during this entire week actually. as the tropics and slowly we will see some rain and mountain snows as we start the week and head into wednesday. they will still see that with the truck not making a lot of progress, that eastern system moving east although there may be of the great front in the southern great lakes. parts of the mid-atlantic and southern new england with scattered showers. this looks more like the summertime pattern to me. no system, just hit and miss after the variety pop-up thunderstorms in those situations, and most area statements. the next system continues slowly in and for the first time in two or three weeks we don't see the systems running their way from west to east.

this will be at very slow mover at the fair amount of snow in the sierra nevada's and northern rockies. next week, the 18th through 20 fourth of march, moser is expected to be above normal except parts of florida and new england. precipitation next week from eastern texas through the mississippi river valley and i know what they're going above normal and a lot of this area at times this winter and it hasn't happened. hopefully in this case you care about moisture through the system. that's just south of the four corner region and as more systems come into the pacific northwest next week, i expected to be above normal. here is the 30 day outlook for temperatures. you can see almost the entire country is above normal, from the middle of the rockies to the east coast, and basically california, nevada, washington,

oregon and idaho expected to be below normal. as far as precipitation next 30 days, this is key i know, below normal and into the four corners region, above normal expected as you can see from mississippi and louisiana, into the ohio valley and son of the same areas have been getting a lot of the moisture this year. and above normal in the pacific northwest. >> but that expanse of above normal pictures, this could be an interesting spring. >> yes, warm and wet. spirit of the heartland is next. week takes us to

pomeroy washington - home to the dye spirit of the heartland takes us to pomeroy,

washington. this family's farm was the biggest blue grass seed producer in the country but after an untimely death the family sold the business. now the next generation is creating its own legacy. they are focused on mainly we production that despondent parents haven't forgotten about raising quality kids. -- but these parents haven't forgotten about raising quality kids. >> of family farm more than the century in the making. still fulfilling dreams for its future generations. >> every day is it teaching moment, and how we act and work is the reflection on what they will be. >> roger and mary and their three girls live and work this farm near pomeroy washington. from farming with horse-drawn combines at the turn of 20th century, to hauling hay, to the

early days of mechanization to becoming one of the largest bluegrass seed producers in the country, the family has been shaped and molded by this farm, much like time has molded the land it's on. roger was in college when he took over the operation in 1978 after his father unexpectedly passed away. >> i continue to go to school part time and i would fly back and forth to take classes. >> his passion was always here with the land. as he settled into running the operation, it wasn't long before his passion was met by another passionate farm girl. >> i started as the field man in a few industries, introducing, log into the region. >> look at the organic matter and consistency of our soil. >> together, they have never looked back. >> been motivated by staying on

this farm and making something beautiful out of it. >> roger and various daily focuses more than just passing down at business. >> when it's time for them to pay an eight armed activity and get them up at four or five in the morning, they get up and go with us to herd sheep or pig rocks, and i don't know how people cannot raise the child without those things. >> having hard work and taking on responsibility and following through and telling the truth, being honest, you want to carry that on. >> lessens the girls are also learning on the backs of their favorite courses. >> we made the conscious decision to limit it to one outside activity beyond school and they ride horses. >> is the success of their

girls, this husband and wife, business partners and friends, let read their daily decisions. >> they are what makes everything with everything. >> if i look back over the time and the times that we were marketing the lower cost of production, or the times when we went to the bank with an unstable balance sheet, and at times when our crops to produce and we had some problems, the success was, we are still here. and every year we are going to stronger balance sheet. and i think that our next 10 years are going to be figures where we consolidate our goals and consolidate our resources and really drive it forward to be in las las vegas before

abandoned. >> they say the girls are too young to work in the operation now that their succession plan will create an option for the girls to form if they want. next week, i took to scenic colorado to meet our world class which are creating his own legacy with his wife and two adoring daughters. their story next week. up next, story time with baxter black. he joins us in just two minutes.

lots of animals roam baxter black's place in arizona...includi ng a cat with an lots of animals roamed baxter black's place in arizona, including it cap with

an attitude. dexter tells us more. >> i was reading the paper to the cap last week. she likes to keep up -- but cap last week. she likes to keep up on current events. we got to the story where a few obscure animal rights groups called to the nation's 66 million pedicabs to be kept indoors for life. -- pet cats to be kept indoors for life. why, asked ms. kitty? this is the roaming cats kill 8 million-217 million birds per year in wisconsin alone. >> oh my, i have no idea there were that many birds in wisconsin. >> yes, and one person was quoted as saying, we don't want our house companions going up and

killing other animals. >> well what about minus? asked ms. kitty. >> while they don't say, but they are also worried about you been being eaten by coyotes. >> well why don't they keep coyotes inside for life? >> love good question, but they are wild animals and they don't want to appear anti- wildlife. >> bias our wildlife, and so are birds. it's all part of the food chain. >> at just two humans that want the cats to be outdoors, they do best in outdoor enclosures or work their cats on an harness. this kitty got it indignant. >> have you ever tried to walk

cats on harness? we are not dogs, you know. >> later minute i protested, it's just the story in the paper. >> shore, until someone will badger you into making me an house cat. the next thing i know you will be taking me for walks and eight cap harness. that's not for me, buckaroo. i'm leaving. and i said, where are you going? and she said, well, i've always wanted to see wisconsin. >> baxter joins us again in two weeks. up next we have tracked details and our country's church salute.

welcome back...tractor tales this week comes to us from the buckeye state. as charles friend tells us, he has quite a history with this class will. welcome back. tractor tales this week comes to us from the buckeye state. charles has quite an history of this classic silver king tractor. >> this is about the 1934 or 35 silver chain that i saw the shot of april in yard for $50. there was no good, no radiator and the tires were flat and part of the engine was missing. it took four years to find the parts. i had it built but not painted, i had to make any good and the new fuel tank. eight below from shelby, ohio, he wanted the tractor so bad, he could almost taste it. so i sold it to him.

and it was past three or four hands since then. well, we got this calliope about four or five years ago and i needed something to pull it around at these kind of shows, so i looked. and the guy had 36 silver kings and this was one of them. i took it home, i unloaded it and i took it into the shop and i thought, this thing looks familiar. after i pulled the cover off, i found the name in there and it was mine. i owned it before. so i have owned this one twice. >> you can find tractor tales online at us farm report.com and on facebook. you can also download the segment as podcasts. now, today's country church salute goes to the methodist

church salute. it is celebrating its centennial. it was originally the church of the united brethren in christ until the 1940s and since then several churches have come together to create cauvery united. the congregation has tumbled over the years. in the 70s there were under 20 members and now with 35, but that small number against patricia family feel. they still support numerous outreach ministries. we would like to learn about your home church as well. stay with us, mailbag is next. r

weekly look inside the farm

report mailbag.... my commentary a few weeks ago about h time now for our weekly look inside the farm report mailbag. my commentary about higher efficiency brought this response from my farm customers. fuel prices do not affect the end consumer, then why do growers continue to use it as an excuse among others for higher prices? that sounds like gouging to me. the honest answer is, yes. some rising fuel costs to provide pricing cover by dean at convenient excuse that seems reasonable. but it's important to keep in mind that while my farm is not particularly fuel intensive, many other crops are. porridge, which is what you may be buying is more energy price sensitive, especially delivering

bulky products like hey. to the old adage that your results may vary it applies here. but all sellers price whatever the market will bear unless there is enough competition to force them to the web merchants to maintain market share. when supplies are low, prices are bid up by desperate buyers. it's unreasonable to expect sellers to keep prices low without demand. this is the undeniable force with fuel prices as well. we complain that we keep buying. until we find ways to curb consumption, prices will stay high. that's not gouging, that's economy 101. as always, we want to hear from you. send comments to us farm report.com or the best voicemails. i'm john phipps saying, thank you for watching us farm report. be sure to join us again next week when we will be working to do even better.