today on us farm report. the drought eases in oklahoma, but what if it's just looking for i knew i dressed? the marketplace are best for the much anticipated planning and inventory reports later this week. and, could herd expansion be starting as cattle producers see better times ahead? us farm report is brought to you by the endless weed control system, and by the 2012 chevy silverado hd. hello and welcome. i'm john phipps. we could sit and swap

astounding stories of the record smashing much heat, but within weeks still to go we are already tired of that news. left undercovered i think is the story of the soil moisture. high temperatures coupled with low humidity has made fieldwork a few light but now threatens to deplete an already dwindling soil musher reserved. more than a few of us regret breaking open fields of the entire tillage profile is now parched. our analysts will have more soon but even without the drought designation there are many of us starting to scan the forecast not for (-open-paren whether by poirier soaking rain. >> thank you. even after some much-needed rain last year's drought is still making quite an impact on the state of texas. texas agri life extension updated the 2011 culture losses at $8 million, up from the 5.2 billion estimate of last august.

on livestock estimates are that $3 billion, up from the 2 billion estimate last fall. cotton losses were pushed up the half million to over 2 billion in losses. and in neighboring oklahoma, widespread rains helping to end the drought. the slow-moving storm produced 6 inches of rain across much of the eastern half of the state. 63% of the state is now considered drug-free. there are signs that the producers who called herds during the drought may have started the early stages of expansion. economist chris hurd says strong prices and moderating the cost are helping. milk production in the top 23 states in february totaled just over 15 billion pounds at 5% bump from the year before. i'll put what actually out more than 8% figure was adjusted after factoring in last months

of additional leap year day. california led the way with production up nearly 11%. coming up this week the usda releases as much perspective planning report. as farmers start rolling their planters this spring it's expected they will plan one of the largest corn crop since world war ii. the usda forecast 94 million acres and allendale incorporated expects 95 million. those are the headlines. now back to john for the crop watch. >> okay. crop watch this week as the cross-country adventure. in oklahoma, 70% of the winter we is good to excellent and more than half is joining well

ahead of the average pace. there was also improvement in the texas crop. the third is more than excellent and more than half of the kansas wheat is good or better. of parma just couldn't resist pointing them to did sweetcorn. and in georgia to office says most of the blueberry crop is booming and mo is in good shape and 65% of the states named peach crop is booming as well. up next, al is joined by chris hurd and bill peterman for this week's market wrap. that begins in just two minutes. is your hair holding you back?

budget-friendly haircuus just ffrr >> roundtable guests this week we have chris hurd, the economist from the university and bill peterman. i'm going to start with you because i know that, i week ago they came up and released what they thought in terms of acres. let's talk about acres first and stocks in the moment. >> we did 26 states, pretty

extensive, and about 63% of the area that's planted. we are seeing increases in corn in southern missouri, southern illinois, southern indiana and ohio. so that whole south-midwest build. and then up in north dakota we see every chunk. now, we are seeing the decline in central illinois and write up along route 26 near south dakota where we had all the blood, we saw declining corn acres there so i don't know what it takes couple years to do the couple crops but that's where we saw decline. but overall, it will be the largest acreage since 1944 in corn. and in beans, we are seeing the make or is the second highest ever and acres on the came in at 74 and the house. >> okay. is that kind of what you are thinking quick.

>> i would say just to hear what bill has to say on that report but i think we've been looking around the 95 and the 70 76 on these, media touch higher. i think being fought their way back in this market since the first of february, and we were ready to discount them up until the first of february but they really let the market higher. >> the survey was taken a few weeks ago so there could be some response time there. >> well and that was before the weather turned to summer. >> yes, we would have to look at that early corn planting. if this weather gives them the chance they will put more corn in. >> an interesting thing, on the 28 crops we will see about the 5 million increase from last year on total acres. so we are pulling some may be out of crp or prevent plan or something like that. >> while the government knows how much you've pull out of

crp, but i'm trying to figure out where that excess acreage is that has been laid and nobody will give me answers. >> well there is some flexible acreage and we don't think about that in the prime midwest but you get to the western edge of the corn belt, and the media couple million acres that could float in the cookout. some of that might be land that has idled because of lack of water in the far western corn belt. >> yes. but this is the small amount. the flooded out of acres last year especially, and then we were nearly down 2 million on the crp so we will see how much of that when i get back. >> i think the thing that might be at game changer is that you're when we find out how many people will double crop. i have the guy call me and say, what do i sell $15 $15 he

intended the price stays here, if it goes down i will take the profit on my position. >> do you think that will happen next. >> i think the people who have we, there is a lot of we in the market this year. well i remember you were talking about those guys planting we identity beans after that. >> while up to half of the sweeping acres have been double crop acres. so i think there is 2 million acres that could come back and double crop. and again, those hike the prices withdraw it quickly and weather would be the other factor. >> how high will soybean prices have to go in order to beat the need and, that kind of gets over to where our stocks are, and some people are telling me that that the wraparound.

now, i will ask you first, will that have been quick. >> well, i don't have been that high. this particular go-round of 13 or $14 range is certainly an possibility. but i think every time ago from 14 to go on to $16. >> but you were talking about volatility a while ago and you only said what quick. >> well unless there is bad weather. but let me tell you this. the five-year average high close in november beans average is $13 and $0.50. we are about that now. and we don't have the shortage. >> especially with shortages. >> will talk about some opportunities when we come

back.

she had man hands. man hands? the hands of a man. it's like a creature out of greek mythology. part horrible beast.

next on the panel we have chris hurd and bill peterman. we were talking off camera and it was interesting. i asked you what the odds were that prices were going up and you gave me some historic odds. >> well if you know what they are going to do this year, i want to know before you tell anyone else. but historically we went back 25 or 30 years and before we really knew the growing season and only one out of six years will soybean prices higher august first than they were june first. so that's five out of six years and you don't end up with the horribly bad crop. i try to encourage producers to play the odds, but five out of six, and it's impressing them with the spring opportunity. >> this conversation began because no one knows what the weather will do. it is early planning going to help? and we also talked about what

he could do and what we need to watch for? >> well there are several studies about this. we can get it planted early. we have potential increased odds of the 2-bushel over trendy yield. though at the very least we should be arguing, what should mean my marketing plan if we have attended one -year-old? because all we here about now is, where will the market goes there will be an yield? well it could be of what's the marketing plan going to be? >> that brings us to the question which we really never have answered and what is the stocks going to be? >> well, here's what i believe. i believe we are about 800 or maybe 750. but if we have an normal crop

are carryover estimates are -- the range is 13 and 16 in the industry, and that's double what we have today. >> that's right. >> up on corn. >> so two times the carryover, i don't think end-users are going to chase this market unless there is the weather problem. >> what about dean's? >> well either one of you. >> i think the carryover numbers will be about to get the depending on where we are. i think the beads look at drug down the little bit but backed down to an normal price. $13 is not normal. >> this year we see the tale of two crops. the old crop on corn is very tight and you haven't seen already a lot of pressure out there with the new crop basically hardly doing anything. so we are looking at inverses

of that dollar $0.25 in some places from summer over to the fall and i'm not sure that producers have really recognized how low these new crop bids are. i'm with bill, i think we will see a lot of corn price down in the $5 cash range or below. those will be down in the $4 range. and the usda as early as may, their first testament, they do statistically look at early planning and they will add 2 bushels. they started up based on 164 on corn and if you go up death of 14 and half billion dollar corn crop. >> we were talking off camera about the fact that perhaps could have been sold much and are holding back more because they haven't had that immediate need that they had before and are waiting for higher prices. do you think there's more corn or beans about there? guess there is? we only have one minute to

discuss it. >> well basis levels across the country have been tremendous on corn at record levels. this leads people to say there just isn't much point. on the other hand we have seen garments will very tight. it could be this summer, with the oblique ethanol demand market in the corn comes out and no-space bubbles won't be as strong. i think that's why the stock report is so important because we don't know what sure. it could be dynamite or not. >> is there anything the producer needs to do. >> we are almost out of time to do that. i think you guys should be selling some cash because it's based still wants to be bullish, bio call for $0.15. >> will be back in just the moment.

cindi claussen is the guest star this week. oh i need is just the simple guarantee that i can start on monday, just an ironclad guarantee, that's all i'm asking for. >> well, where your farm is the weather should be decent. but the problem is, did you have enough moisture and are you worried about cold air coming in after you plan? window that's on the mind of an lot of producers around. >> yes. and i think a lot of us will take the chance. >> i've been driving around northern indiana and seen that happening as well. >> we do continue to see some pretty bad conditions in the western part of texas and oklahoma, but where reduce the

increasing dryness is in the upper midwest. parts of minnesota and northern iowa, we are starting to see the dryness in greece. and with the record temperatures plus wins it's not really helping anyone, and we don't have a lot of reserves or moisture available which could potentially be of problem that we don't get the moisture in the next few weeks. let's take collect them at what what our jet stream is telling us. we have seen cooler temperatures in the eastern part of the country. we have an nice dropout west as well. we will see some cooler air across the northwestern tier states, but overall the main jet stream, the cooler air starts to push further north. so we will allow warmer temperatures to return as we get to the week but not those record-breaking temperatures like we saw over the past week. as we take the look of the week ahead day by day, monday

we will see an cold front through the great lakes but most of the rain will be closer to the low and maybe a few flakes on the north side. we will have wet weather in parts of the plains states. the little bit of snow in the upper mount's list. i pressure keeping the southeast on the dry side and warm. now as we head into wednesday we see another front that will swing through. so if you get your planted on wednesday he might see some things to support that wednesday. but that brings showers and maybe some snow on the north side, so there is some cool air out there. and as we get into friday, we will try it out for a lot of the corn belt, and we have more wet weather for parts of the southeast. stay tuned, we will have more weather coming up in the next hour.

asterisk i spent far too much time comparing my thermometer and my calendar. if i had known exactly which day of the year it was my senses would have let me to think it was late may, not mid-march. adding to the tensions are stern warnings that any replay and see it is either nonexistent or plodding through security at some south american airport. i'm not the first farmer to have this planting paradox. consider our ancient predecessor. consider that we didn't have calendars. losing end this planted crop to frost wasn't just bad business,

it was brutal population control. no wonder the guy who discovered how to tell where we were in the solar year was immediately promoted to, smartest guy in the cave. connecting the dots between the stars and the sun and when to plant was very important. i've been lucky enough to see will buy in ruins and i have written off astronomy as an extra superstitious mumbo- jumbo and just not much else to do when the sun went down. the idea of lugging huge stones to justify the equinox looked to me like extremism but it was actually good agricultural research in progress. maybe i will stay up late today. stock up some rocks and see where the sun rises. send us an e-mail or call and leave us the voicemail. coming up in the next half- hour, why under the hood is it dangerous place for baxter black. stay with us the second half of us farm report is coming right up.

>> today on us farm report. some discouraging words are heard as the buffalo begin to rome. and all eyes on the weather map

as moisture begins to be absent. and we share the story of the special entertainer of special books. us farm report is brought to you by the inmost weed control system and by the 2012 chevy silverado hd. >> hello and welcome to the us farm report. i am john pitts. i'm not allowed to endorse products but i can't help but be reminded of the steak and shake model frequently. written in script of the top of the menu, it proclaims, insight, it must be right. up until now i've considered it pretty lame commercial doggerel but it's coming to its own. look at who disputes we've been following, from pink slime to cage tends to gestation crates. appearance has tramped over the

arguments of economy, safety and jurisdiction. how practices look to the public now overrides all. you don't have to like it but you do have to respect it. let's get started with the headlines. >> bison are now roaming an indian reservation with these of montana, but the court ruling will block any further relocation of the herd. this week indian tribes on fort peck reservation celebrated the arrival of 63 buffalo. the animals came from yellowstone national park. the day after the arrival of montana judge granted of blocks. >> just like the elk they were not raised to be living in the mountains all the time, they are of plains animal. but for the last 150 years they have been pushed into the mountains and now we are giving them the chance to come back. >> ranchers and property owners have been at odds with the indian government with the plan to reintroduce them to the

area. half of support pack animals were transported to another reservation but the hearing is set for next month. commercial beekeepers and environmental groups are taking action to stop the use of close eye and the dead, an insecticide thought to be went to the deaths of peace. in the petition at group state epa has failed to follow its own regulations by not conducting the poll study on the effect of the insecticide to be used. it is thought that the insecticide is lethal disease by waking in the insects immune system. more than two dozen beekeepers file the petition with the epa. we have all received those scam letters, faxes and e- mails, and it appears that the department of agriculture is not to do. the usda save fraudulent letters are being sent.

the letter comes from the procurement officer and asked for personal and financial information. it buries the agency's logo and steal it also includes the name frank rutenberg. the usda says these letters are false. so far the letters have shown up in nebraska, pennsylvania and wisconsin. the us price industry is raising questions of validity of waking life with diabetes. last week harvard university released the results of the study of associates being more rice with significantly higher risk of type two diabetes, especially for the asian populations''''. rice is grown worldwide and

feeds more than half of the globe. the us rice regulation is arguing the study and says it didn't take into effect the lack of activity, obesity and other risk factors. and while my more people are facing the threat of diabetes, coffee triggers may have the upper hand. i study showed that consuming at least four cups per day lowered the risk of diabetes 23- 40%. the study of 142,000 people also found no link between coffee consumption and heart disease nor the risk of cancer. now major rob just said the clawson joins us with the national forecast. >> welcome back to us farm report. things are different as we head through this week. we are not looking at record temperatures. maybe some snow to the north of the border. and it's not terribly cold. we will see dry conditions in the southeast, me somewhat weather and good chunk of the western part of the country.

as we head into wednesday, we see wet weather pushing into too much of the central and eastern corn belt. cooler area and some of the plains, great and upper elevations and snow in the west. we bring more wet weather into the gulf coast states in the southeast. another front comes through the plains states, and we will see no more rain in the pacific northwest and another wet day for the southeast. as we head into the following week. warm temperatures across the board. even into the four corners region we are looking at above normal temperatures for the week. as far as precipitation, the western makes all the way down into texas also for parts of

the west as we get into the northwest, we are getting into drier conditions along the east coast. they are getting further into the future, the 30 day temperatures are above normal for about the entire eastern half of the country and stretching through central and eastern plains. the cool air will remain in the pacific northwest. and as we look at the precipitation we will see above normal precipitation into the great lakes and pacific northwest. but we will look at dry conditions in texas and the four corners region and not something where we will be paying attention to the temperatures at present. some folks are getting ready to start planting, so i busily moisture, and temperatures are huge deal. >> the 30 day temperature was like the checkered flag. my thinking is, the longer

it stayed remarkably warm, the harder it becomes for an arctic air mass to come down. >> right, and with no snow pack. >> spirit of the heartland is next. those in their

golden years - is to remain active. that free piece >> one of the keys of life especially for those of us at our golden years is to remain active. that piece of advice comes from woolly and so view, an 94 -year-old south dakota resident who uses the keys to remain young at heart. as al jones tells us, lillian isn't ready to slow down at the keyboard or in life anytime

soon. >> when it comes to tackling the ivories, it comes naturally to lillian. she's only had three lessons and that was 82 years ago. >> i can't count the years that i started. i started when i was 12 and i played for quite a while and then after i got married, i didn't have the piano. >> but then when she retired from her job 27 years ago, she picked up where she left off without missing ap. and people have been tapping their toes ever said, enjoying the tunes with williams own personal flair. >> that's what they tell me in church. i played the prelude and then they feel like dancing down the aisle when they go out. >> she plays your one of month

and she's actually older than the majority of the people who live here. >> they can sing along and they tap their toes and have the great time. >> what are key to staying young? >> keep active. you have to keep active or else you are done. >> she doesn't read music, doesn't know what she is playing. >> shards and glad, i don't know any of that. >> we have recorded 44 songs. >> and at age 94, still hitting all the right notes.

this is al jones reporting. >> thinks. is willing to leave the home and is president of her local seniors club. next week we will meet up our family with new england roots. it may well be the oldest family farm in the country. that's next week on spirit of the heartland. up next, storytime with baxter black. we will be right back. ranching

requires many farming and ranching requires many skill sets...unfortuna tely for baxter

black, master mechanic is not army and matching require many skill sets. unfortunately for baxter black that mechanic is not on his list. he joins us now from his arizona ranch. >> of bringing old towel can make me so mad that my skin gets out to the touch. but i did matter what i have of slipping clutch. there is something about mechanical things does worse than inventing life. they acquire some kind of annoying twitch and they seem to come to life. then it loses on handyman jack.

couple that doesn't quite fit. i can't vote out the weeds like this is, sprocket stock will hold the chain and trying to change your tire in your suit and going to church in the rain. i'd love to put in the prolapse or handle of biting dog. bloggers that won't fog and the motors that are dying, the sprayers that drizzle and trip. his goal breakers that sizzle and crack and clippers that are not clipped. unplumbed sick and tired of driving those things made out of plastic and steel, there's days i believe i might strangle the man, the one who invented the

wheel. i'm no good man, and there is no walking disaster that's worse to me with the wrench in my hand. i could trade places and never get relief. my wife good old leave, would need something fixed, and they probably have of sleep. this is baxter black from out there. under here. >> baxter joins us again in two weeks. until then, check out baxter black dcom. when we come back, our tractor tales -

where are we headed this week?

john, west central michigan is our destination... al is back with tractor tales. where are we headed this week? >> west central michigan as our stock this week. this one is one for our collector and he's particular about this make and model. >> the first tractor right here behind me is the 1949 n. i've only had it a few years. when i bought the tractor there was little to no paint on this particular tractor which is true with most of them. i went through everything mechanically that needed done and gave it up fresh coat of paint. i think this was the property of one owner and upon his passing was put up for sale at

auction. i use all of them for blowing purposes. you have to keep them running. they had half of the old v-8. they had the wheels all the way around and that was hard to come by with chloride in the tires, the rest are pretty bad. but everything is original on these. we try to get them out where they can be seen and draw attention. everyone has the memory of something similar. >> next week find out how new technology is connecting with old iron. >> i have the guy that has to tractor, and i think i might be interested in it. if it sounds good, i'll take

it. >> take it to the sunshine state to v"#çhear more about th unique purpose dot mac purchase. today's country church salute goes to the dewitt community church in dewitt new york. the colony is celebrating its bicentennial. john do that for religious services. in 1811 they organized the young society which eventually became the dewitt community church. then it was burned and the church was relocated. generations later the congregation had decided they had outgrown their little white church and in the 1950's and new church was constructed and still stands today. art thanks to the church member for sharing the story of dewitt community church. and we want to know about your home church as well so this can be sent to the address dot mac

address on the screen. stay with us, the mailbag is next.

time now for our weekly look inside the farm report mailbag.... jay gilbert provides some real time corroboration of comments from >> time to check the mailbag. jay gilbert provides realtime corroboration from comments on our market analyst best week. i have it. e-mail and for the last few months the cornmeal has been replaced by 35% wheat which we are steamrolling. >> thanks for the input. the idea here is to find out

how we will account for the substitution of the supply and demand reports. my thought is there is eroding confidence in the numbers. with the boom in on farm storage and declining participation rates, especially among large producers on farm stocks, it becomes more about bull. shift in consumption like feed to 10 and others as well. the procedures are essentially fixed by law, the agency who is involved has neither the incentive more latitude to get better at their job. this makes the usda report some of the very few examples of information products that have not gotten faster or better in the last 40 years. moreover i predict it could get worse. budget cuts anywhere close to the amounts unveiled by the ryan proposal for example could prompt farm bill negotiators to throw them and their counterparts

under the bus to save other programs. given the rather unimpressive aggregate reporting record, i don't blame them. as always, we want to hear from you. or you can leave as the voicemail at 87924329. i'm john to say thank you for watching us farm report. be sure to join us next week when we will be working to do even better.