the most dependable, longest lasting full-size pickup on the road. >> most of the trauma of the current drought has been centered on the corn crop and rightly so. they will know in just a few days with the maximum yield is going to be. but as our marketing experts are trying to tell us, it's the soy crop that could be the true catastrophe. and unlike corn, we can't just shut down ethanol plants to free up the supplies. increasing ethanol could increase oil demand by decreasing the dg supplies. the summers commodity fireworks show will have at least two acts, so don't leave early.

>> a rapid and continuing decline of major crops in the corn belt are now showing up in the usda supply ledger. the usda lowered its corn meal production by 20 bushels to the act acre after six straight weeks of crap decline. production estimates were lowered by 1.8 billion bushels from last month. >> there was huge uncertainty about what the usda would do but i think if one took a poll of where you would like to see the usda come out, i think 146 is probably in that range. maybe a few bushels high that on some level there was a bit of a sigh of relief that the usda is at least in the market's perception playing it safe on this report. >> ending stocks for 20122013 are projected at 1.2 billion bushels, down 96 billion from last

month's projection. the usda projects soybean production at just over 1 billion bushels. the harvested 1.3 billion acres just higher than the projection. the book ahead is down 40 bushels. the usda slightly lowered it's winter we projections compared to its june forecast. the act apartments at it at 1.6 billion bushels. that's up about half a bushels from last month. the 2012 farm bill is moving onto its next step. the committee approved its permission this week. the committee rejected an amendment that would have eliminated supply management from the dairy price support. they say it will save three and a half billion dollars for each of the last 10 years. this way is the political consequences of bringing it to

9s#vthey're is a package of changes that could deliver faster assistance to farmers and ranchers. one change his view that the timeframe of disaster declarations from his office. as a result more than 1000 counties received at declaration. the secretary also lowered interest rates on loans by a point and a half. those are the headlines. now back to john for crop watch. >> (-left-parenthesis the cannes jersey county illinois. anything planted after april 20th movie about a 10. the fields are knee-high and tasseled and rolled up like a

cigarette. in montana, more than half the winter we crop is good to excellent and 15% are in good to excellent shape. we will be back in just two minutes.

>> just at the roundtable today, we have jim bauer from power training, and it took dillinger. i would like you to give us a summary of how the market close on friday. >> i thought the market reacted reasonably well. beans were up about $0.23, or didn't fare quite as well come

up about a nickel. we've got about nine, and certainly both the corn and soybean markets have been quite dynamic this week. and i will tell you that all these years that i have been trading and in this business, this has been a very active week. and we have a night session now and there's a lot of activity and pay attention. but the industry has moved toward that. >> is mostly the weather looks or was it the report doesn't this market going skyhigh? >> that huge drop from the usda on corn acreage, it's

unquestionable that you have to cut it but, but i think this month, it's where do they go by the january report. but it can also be the upper 120's before is said and done. >> so, i think it's just too hot and too long. even areas that have gotten better rings as we are out walking those fields, the yields are slipping on a daily basis. >> while we may have less corn because our corn prices will go up but how high can we go until they start seriously russian in the supply? >> well, that's the question. that's a function of the market, to get high enough to start rationing that the

amount. so that's unknown and i think probably we are already in the process going to demand down on the corn better than we have on beans. i think we need to put an eight on the corn. >> we have such a good crop and the yield will be fair, and now they don't have it. let's look at what happened in 2002. in 2002 with the soybean crop, the final yield with 36.5 bpa. right now we are at 40.6. if you look at the crossbreeding compared to the crop ratings in 2002, our overall crop ratings are actually lower. when you take that into consideration, that tells me that the final yield in the us

can move lower. particularly at this pattern doesn't change quickly. and at that number would have to rush out probably at least another 150 million bushels of us soybeans because we will be the woman is the player from basically fall through april. this market, if the weather pattern continues to be as a process that has been, and we drop to bushels, to me, the russian process will be very severe. and i would call that a protein shortage phenomenon happening right now and that's evident by the world market, not just the us market. >> while we only say, do what china does and not as they say.

they have a big export sales number to them, again this morning it was another 150,000 tons. >> when we come back, this is such a big thing that we are going to talk about that i'm going to talk to you about what a producer can do to protect whatever profit may have been there before they found out they didn't have the crop this ç year. return with more us army port in just a moment. us farm report in just a moment.

>> jim bauer from power trading and chip knowledge or. i said we would ask questions about what a producer needs to do at this time company and each producer is individual and has a different set of situations, and we know that. but what should a producer too? >> i think there's a couple big things. first and foremost, don't get

down. it's unbelievably hard. i think a really important thing, do it now, doublecheck coverages and doublecheck the social security numbers and names are right on them and that you have the harvest item. crop insurance -- it's not going to make everyone hole, but it will not help with yield reductions. the crop is dragging the prices higher. start looking at what inputs are doing out there and keep a close eye. i'm not saying get a super aggressive yet, but every bump higher that the 12 takes, that

will drag the 13 higher as well. >> we will lock in profit for them. >> absolutely. >> i think -- of course i was in the 1980's situation and i think we are not quite as bad overall as 1988 overall. but i think you could probably get worse. keep in mind in 1988 we had a bigger reserve particularly with corn and the demand has doubled since that time. i think corn has pretty much been the market leader but i start to shift our thought processes and strategies towards the soy context. i think it will be the leader up or down. and that's monitoring the news

every day. if it's the same size, if it's smaller, keep on buying. we have had an unbelievably high degree of success at least so far. there is risk, and we have been underwriting the put options on both corn and soybeans as the market goes up, stripping those premiums off and that has been a good strategy. the other thing is, if the market gets to the point where we could sell my daughter calls and the producer knows he has the yield, that's an indirect way of hedging the crop off. our staff at power trading as much focused towards learning and underwriting options depending on the situation on a daily basis. >> this really doesn't fit into this show but everyone out there wants to know how hot the prices are going to get. i no you don't want to get the numbers -- >> in this type of market, try

to stay away from looking at the price. watch the open markets and if china keeps on buying, they don't make a whole lot of mistakes when they are trading. i watch that every day to see which position they are taking. >> is impossible to give numbers but i agree with jim that i think the corn market has been doing a good job in digesting what is out there. we are probably further along in digesting the dryness and yield loss and corn that we are indeed because as jim mentioned, two or three weeks and that being yield will keep dropping. so at this stage beans probably have more upside potential than corn but it really is impossible to put a number out there. >> al, what we are both saying

essentially is, the market has to get to a level high enough and long enough to put the supply and demand people back into the context. until the market feels comfortable with that, it will probably keep adding premiums. but the situation was soybeans, it could be a disaster if we don't get copious rains coming in to fulfill the soybean situation because they are in

>> let's talk to meteorologist mike hoffman about the weather. i asked you to find some information about the deficit problem we are having. not just a national debt but a water debt. >> you can see the brighter red is 40% less rain than you would normally see. you get into that dark red and you are looking at 60% less. a good chunk of the eastern

corn belt testing half the amount of moisture that they typically would since the first of a year and you can see almost none of the corn belt has more rain than it typically would at this point except the northern plains, parts of texas and parts of florida. this is a dramatic map and in some places, in the southwest and even a couple of spots further east, you are talking 80% less than normal for this time of year so far since january first. this just shows you how bad it is and a drop monitor mimics that because we did the driest areas from northeast indiana all the way down into most of arkansas in an extreme drought. a few pockets showing up with an exceptional drought. parts of georgia and east alabama, you are already in that. it has improved, is still drive for much of texas but it has improved in that area.

you can see northern states are doing the best of anyone. now let's check the weather and see what the jet stream is going to do. see a little bit of a drop in the great lakes and ipods out. we are still talking trying to form a trough in the northeast for next weekend but the bulk of the bridge and the hottest area will continue to be from the central plains back into the southwest with slight cooling further north along the jet stream. that's the situation. we don't see any of that rail high heat back into the corn belt like we saw a week and a half ago, but especially when you are dry, that happens. now, this goes into the mid-

atlantic afternoon, and storms moving through the northern tier of states with our pool going through the great lakes, we will have a band of showers and thunderstorms. again, as we head through the timeframe, then that will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. that could be some good news for a lot of areas part of the country. back with a longer range forecast in the next half-hour.

>> i have been reluctant to pile on with additional bad news from farmers but what we have been knowing our fingernails hoping for rain or gnashing our teeth while congress fiddles with the farm bill, one of the most appalling financial scandals in human history continues to unfold.

if you are just tuning in, here's the story. why borg, the london bank offered rate is used to pay mortgages. and that's about 800 trillion worth of assets are active. and that's largely a handful of banks who report what they think the going rate is. it's like doing a crop report by asking 25 farmers what they think they yield will be and i think we all know which way we would beat the numbers. we all know that bankers have been whispering amongst themselves to pledge it. they have lowered the figures of their own banks would appear healthier during financial planning. this in turn decrease your four o. one k. or savings rate.

if the mother of all financial scams and reinforces the conclusion i had reached years ago. it is foolish to germany in any way to wall street and expect a square deal. maybe the old bumper sticker is true. give a man a gun and he can rob a bank. giving them a bank and he can rob the world. let us know what you think. coming up, the next 10 panoramic view of the wheat harvest. stay with us, the next half- hour of us farm report is i was having trouble getting out of bed in the morning because my back hurt so bad. the sleep number bed conforms to you. i wake up in the morning with no back pain. do you toss and turn? wake up with back pain? if so, call us now.

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toda >> today on us farm report, that were disaster is becoming common as drought spreads across the midwest. and a double play me at the the cost and pastor failure presents a grim future. and egg producers set up safeguards to reduce salmonella outbreaks.

>> hello and welcome to us farm report. economists marcus gladwell achieved instant fame with his book tipping point which developed the idea of how tends to gradually shift that brake suddenly in one direction. it seems an apt way of looking at current crops. the point of no return is passing in cornfields across the midwest. pollination is unsuccessful or the plant reserves are depleted which now begs the question, how many acres are past the tipping point and will be abandoned. so while the market focus will center on bushels per acre, more observers are beginning to question the acre number. bottom line, we probably won't know the exact size of this crop until january, it then. >> the department of agriculture has declared its largest agriculture disaster ever as a result of the persistent drought and other

calamities. more than a thousand counties in 26 states received the disaster declaration this week. most of the area is in the southwest and it also extends in the southern areas of the corn belt. most of the corn belt was left off the list and it's been under severe drought conditions for several weeks. one third of the nation's corn crop is rated as very poor conditions. >> the early corn is pretty much toast. meanwhile it's trying to passel unsuccessfully. >> this week it reduces average yield down 2146 bushels per acre. the usda has not made such a drastic revisions of the 1988 rout. 15% of the lower 48 grazing

land is called poor or very poor and only 21% is good or excellent. conditions are slightly better this year but the summer is now turning off any improvements. >> we have had 13-60 days right in a row of triple digits and the wind is blowing hard and it's hard to find a place that's not sunburnt and cracked. my pastors are maintaining relatively well but a lot of people who don't have topsoil are struggling. >> in some states where corn crops and pasture is faltering farmers are selling portions of their beef herds. >> the new exit pupil went into effect on july ninth. and it sounds like there's work to do. according to the fda in 2011 inspectors on safety violations

on roughly 40% of farms. only about 3% were serious enough to require any agency action. the new exit pupil is designed to prevent domino poisoning. that's it for news and meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now for the forecast. >> most of the lower 48 continuous hot and the jet stream is anomalous and tear of states. a little bit of a trough in the north west and great lakes into northeast. most of the area south of the jet stream, we are talking it and this afternoon brady thunderstorms. just so you no doubt one of these widespread range situations like we saw in much of this past week. and a little bit more activity going to the northern tier of

states and that will go to the northern tier of plains states with a trough trying to stay in the northern great lakes. and that it can't solve out once the jet stream to start tomorrow, you won't see that front go too much further south. and that these complexes of showers and storms as the head through the end of the week. now let's check out the forecast. for next week, july 20 second through the 20 eighth. below normal temperatures for the southeast and that's mainly because we are seen as a brain in your area and we will tend to keep it that way. and most of the western plains below normal except along the coastline.

we expect that to see about above normal pictures. now precipitation, above normal for the great lakes. near-normal for the southern great lakes and above normal for most of the southeastern parts of the country. below normal precipitation for the plains states from nebraska through texas and we continue to see the monsoon moisture which is not technically a monsoon but nonetheless afternoon for the desert southwest and corner region. above normal for the southwestern great lakes and most areas down into the tennessee valley, oklahoma and northern texas, back into the plains and the northwest. you can see a large part of the lower 48 with a lower temperatures. unfortunately i'm still going below normal for central

mississippi valley. and mid-atlantic states, on into the northeast. but that doesn't bode well. >> we will hope for the best and we appreciate that information, especially the graphic about the deficit we are starting to run. >> well because out we are starting to worry about next year. >> spirit of the heartland is next.

winter wheat harvest has a nearly wrapped up across the u-s. for months harvester >> the winter we harvest has nearly wrapped up across the midwest. vermont's harvesters work their way north following the ripening crop from texas merely to canada.

clinton group of texas to the southern plains for the harvest of beauty. >> the wheat crop showed up dressed for harvest. that's ahead of schedule. >> they are usually starting right now and hoping to be finished by tomorrow. >> two weeks early. that pushed maturity along and poor farmers like jimmy it was hot and dry conditions that make them think they may not get a crop that all this year. >> we had over 100 days of 100- degree weather. >> last year was a complete disaster. we did our best about 1100 acres of we out of 1500. >> mike rosen of weaver brothers grain company is

satisfied. business is good. >> we are probably looking at around 845 or 426-bushel average. >> today is our 30th wedding anniversary. >> what else would you rather be doing quite dot mac? at. >> did he do anything special but. >> a vacuum out my combine and cleaned the windows. >> this will be better than we've had in the last 15 years. >> and by all accounts, as harvest is one for the record books. >> we have the perfect amount of rain at the perfect time. we didn't get too much or too little, just like irrigated we basically. >> with yields coming in

anywhere from 50-70 bushels to the acre and a test with tipping the scales, complaints are few and far between. >> the fifth-generation farmers get the team rounded up and gets them started near their farm at chase kansas. we weren't really sure where it was and where it wasn't. >> a massive half mile wide enough ef4 tornado took a pass to his farm. >> the grain bins i'd impacted the house. >> baltimore combines were inside show the public totals, so the machine shows were

either completely removed around them or, in one case, one of the machines, the building had collapsed on top of the machine. >> now as the harvest rolls on, he's dodging debris, round bales and equipment. a constant reminder of the light he had in how easily it could be disassembled. >> thank you. coming up, would travel to arizona to see why celebrating independence is nothing unusual for baxter black. celebrated its

independence...f or baxter black, that celebration of freedom is an >> earlier this month our nation celebrated its independence. for baxter black, a celebration of freedom is an everyday affair. >> we were watching the history channel and grandmas house and it was a story about a navy ship being attacked in 1945. stories that never made the paper but we're remembered only by those brave souls who talk titled in the ways next to a burning ship 3 miles above the seafloor. it was one of those moments where my son and i were engrossed. we said, isn't it funny that the only person in this house who really understands what we're watching is asleep in his chair? grandpa, kansas farm boy and junior petty officer, three years three months and 21 days on a cruise ship in the pacific

ocean, now asleep in his chair at 90 years old. it doesn't have a scrapbook of his service and when the subject of the war comes up, his lighthearted response is, i save the world. that's his joke. but it comes and goes quickly and his opportunity to ponder the answer disappears which is unfortunate because he and countless thousands of others did save the world. and anyone who doubts that germany and japan had intentions of conquering us all is deluding themselves. ever have slavery or good and evil that so clearly defined. by the time he reluctantly joined the forces in 1942, it was not so clear. elected leaders make decisions of enormous consequence and put the war, peace, conflict resolution into motion. korea, soviet union, lebanon,

somalia, afghanistan, iraq, north korea, iran and china. elected leaders ride into battle, on the backs of men like grandpa tommy, who are lucky, come home to the welcoming arms of a single country. political leaders are honored on presidents' day, but grandpa tommy is honored on white day, july fourth, december 7, memorial day, and i guess every day i draw a rebirth. i'm proud and i will tell him that i'm thankful he saved the world, as soon as he wakes up. i'm baxter black from out there. >> baxter will join us again in two weeks. when we come back, a trip to michigan for cockatiels,

plus our country church salute. please

al joins us now with tractor tales...what do you have for us this week? john, time to check out an old ford. the owner of this 1946 ford classic >> al joins us for tractor tales. >> we are checking out a 1986 ford classic. the owner says that he had to part ways it would have to go to someone who would take care of it, but he says he's not ready to hand it over just yet. >> this is a 46 ford that i've had for 20 plus years. it's done a lot of work and i've restored at about 20 some years ago. it's a very dependable tractor. i played this one up, new tires

and a paint job. this one, i do a lot of mowing with this one. it has been in parades and goes to the tractor shows with the rest of them. it's a great tractor and for the age of it is nice. everyone has a memory of their dad or relatives of one of them. eventually, probably quite soon, it will be sold. i have too many to take care of. i'm getting to the age where it's time for something to go. i'd like to keep it forever. these trackers are 60 plus years already, they run great

and at and they will be good to have many more years. >> don't forget, you can find tractor tales online at us farm report .com or on facebook. this congregation is celebrating its 150th anniversary but it's roots go further back than that. in 1855 the presbyterian church gave it reverend cw bentley the ability to open a church in the part of the aisle. in june, 1862, a presbyterian church was approved for the committee of midway which is now known as the daily. the church was erected in use since 1953 when it was replaced by a new and current building. our thanks to julie wilson for sharing the news of midway

presbyterian church. and as always, but we want to learn more about your home church as well. send back to the address on the screen. stay with us, mailbag is next.

time now for our weekly look inside the farm >> time now to hear from you at the old barn report mailbag. eric lang has an interesting angle on the renewal benefits of natural gas in the us. i think it's possible that the speed of change from coal to natural gas and electricity could also be seen in the change of gasoline to compressed natural

gas for automobiles. eric, i've been following the use of compressed natural gas for the last few years and one big issue is the huge size of the tanks needed, but personally, i think that the bigger hurdle will be my wife. she does not enjoy filling her tank. many males notice how the car is always on empty when it's their turn to drive. now look at the apparatus and a learning curve needed to though those tanks and i think the popular acceptance will be slow. the only successful vehicles today are tanker trucks that transport from terminals. it's likewise a technological headache and an extensive infrastructure investment. finally, as natural gas displaces oil for heating and some industrial beef stocks, oil prices could soften making economic stop all as well.

in short, i think compressed natural gas can work as a fuel but it still came complete with petroleum. as always, we want to hear from you. send comments or leave us a voicemail at 800792 or 329. thanks for watching us farm report. be sure to watch us next week. we will be working to do even better.