decision 2016 super tuesday update. >> hello, the polls have now closed in three states on this super tuesday. let's walk you through what we know at this hour. let's start with the republicans in georgia. nbc news projects donald trump wins in georgia. in virginia, republican side the race is too close to call but

and rubio are vying for first place. again, that's virginia. in vermont, republican race too early to call. let's look at the democrats now. in georgia, nbc news projects hillary clinton is the winner in georgia. in virginia, nbc news again projects hillary clinton will win. vermont, bernie sanders' home state, we project he will win in vermont. bernie sanders wins the vermont democratic primary. chuck todd is with me right now. your first thoughts as the evening begins? >> i think the bill surprise is virginia republicans, too close to call, good news for marco rubio. if there was a state that he had a shot at winning it was virginia. moderate electorate. anybody can vote in the primary and there's a lot of evidence a lot of democrats may have turned out to help rubio in virginia. so a big deal. if you're ted cruz and marco rubio you're not happy about that georgia result.

poll closed that's a big win for trump, a premonition of what arkansas and alabama could look like. >> we'll be looking at four more states. we'll have closings coming up at 8:00 eastern time. and of course we'll be back on as we characterize those races for you. you see alabama, massachusetts, oklahoma, tennessee will be up next. i'm lester holt at nbc news election headquarters. we'll see you a bit later on. we are back with our continue ing "nightly news" coverage of this super tuesday. the polls have closed in georgia, vermont, virginia. you've seen the results. let's get to nbc's kristen

in miami. what's the latest from there? >> reporter: the crowd erupting into cheers as they have learned secretary clinton has won georgia and virginia. it as strong start for this campaign, hoping to build on its momentum in order to claim victory tonight she needs her entire southern firewall to hold. that includes states like arkansas, alabama, and tennessee. still, the campaign says the earliest it could put the race out of reach mathematically is march 15th. that's when florida votes. and one of the reasons she's holding her watch party here. clinton is already starting to set her sights on the general, taking increasing aim at donald trump, criticizing him for being a divisive candidate. democratic strategist and campaign officials are signaling, if clinton makes it to the general and faces trump, she'll stress his divisive and offensive comments and his controversial policies like building a wall. meanwhile, one democratic strategist tells me if clinton makes it to the general and

she shouldn't get personal unless and until he does. and also says trump makes democrats nervous because while he energizes the base, he could also bring a lot of new voters into the polls. >> all right, from the democratic side let's move to the republican side. katy tur live with the trump campaign in palm beach. he wins georgia, what are you hearing from there? is happy about this win. trump tweeting just now, thank you to georgia. certainly surprise is though to find out he is neck and neck for first place with marco rubio right now. also competing for first in vermont with kasich. now, if you're going to believe the polls, trump was supposed to run away with the majority of the delegates tonight and that could still happen. keep in mind there's been a lot of drama the past few days. trump refusing to immediately condemn the kkk. that got a lot of headlines. rubio has also been going after him hard. but it would take a major upset for him not to win the majority of delegates tonight.

looking forward to states that vote in the next few days, states that vote in the next few weeks. they're also looking ahead to the general election, promising to go after hillary clinton hard, to bring up her e-mail scandal every single day. they think she is a flawed candidate. to put this in a little bit of perspective, this is a campaign that started out with very little organization, a campaign that started out with no backing from the republican establishment, a campaign that still is getting a lot of hostility from the republican establishment, a campaign that was often called a joke. but now donald trump is poised to potentially win big. certainly close races in virginia and vermont have got to be a little worrying for the campaign at this moment. >> all right, katy, thank yous. chuck todd is with us, let's continue that thought. what's happening in virginia right now? trump and rubio vying for first place. does that give anyone pause? >> it's more important for rubio to win than it is for trump to win. trump's going to win a lot tonight. he's the guy if he's not winning he's in second.

place guys, maybe cruz somewhere in the southwest, maybe rubio in virginia, maybe john kasich in vermont. ultimately it's always trump is the other guy. so look, rubio desperately needs his first victory. virginia is his best shot tonight. they've got to feel very good that we can't call this yet. it does mean that we've got to wait for more sots to come in. virginia'sn early counting state, we should know. trump is poised to have a big delegate night and we can't underscore that. the virginia win here is what should really scare ted cruz and marco rubio. because he did it with such ease. >> this is still a period where we're looking at proportional delegates. >> it is except winning isn't everything, but georgia, we think it's going to be a substantial donald trump win, well, that means we're going to have -- he's going to get a lion's share of those delegates and it could mean cruz and rubio barely make the threshold necessary to get delegates and may not even get delegates in every congressional district. we know trump is going to get

so that's what makes that -- if alabama and arkansas and tennessee look more like georgia than it does in virginia, that's why donald trump could be poised to have a big delegate lead after the night's over. >> clinton getting off to a good start, her firewall strategy looking like it could play out. >> totally holding, i don't understand why bernie sanders didn't play in a state like virginia, very perplexing to me, tennessee in particular. he's going for that northern strategy. we'll find out if the strategy works in less than an hour. what's massachusetts look like when polls close? a very important state to bernie sanders and the difference between clintons having a good night and a great night. >> chuck todd, thank you very much. it's rare to see so much importance placed on a race for runner-up. as we do tonight in the battle for republican nomination. both marco rubio and ted cruz see themselves as we've explained as viable alternatives to trump. but do voters? as nbc's gabe gutierrez explains the road to the nomination is a tough one for both candidates. >> reporter: for marco rubio,

>> anyone who votes for donald trump today in these caucuses is voting for hillary clinton in november. >> reporter: today his campaign's hoping for a surprise finish in minnesota. but he could go 0 for 15 so far, possibly failing to win a single primary or caucus. tonight he's trying to crack 20% of the vote in states like georgia to pick up delegates. >> right now the strategy seems to be coming in second everywhere. how long is not winning going to be a winning strategy? >> reporter: after a weekend full of personal attacks -- >> he should sue whoever did that to his face -- >> reporter: the florida senator now toning down jokes about donald trump, telling nbc news rubio wants to make a more dire closing argument on super tuesday, calling trump dangerous. >> get him out of here! >> donald trump has been bullying people for a year, insulting people. every now and then a bully needs a taste of his own medicine but that's not going to be what my campaign is. >> trump refuses to denounce the kkk. >> reporter: the pro-rubio super

florida, his home state, ahead of the key primary in two weeks. >> if rubio doesn't win florida his campaign is essentially done. >> reporter: ted cruz betting on a crucial win in his home state of texas. >> the only campaign that is in a position to beat donald trump on super tuesday is our campaign. >> reporter: john kasich banking on winning ohio on march 15th. ben carson ignoring calls to leave the race, instead calling the other candidates, urging civility. >> these trump voters believe fundamentally that the country is no longer great. and that it is at its last hour to be great again. >> reporter: with the billionaire front-runner dominating in national polls, the gop is split on any alternative. rubio is running neck and neck with donald trump right now in virginia. now today both trump and cruz called on rubio to drop out of the race if he underperforms tonight. late this afternoon, rubio said that's not going to happen. and he's promising to win his home state of florida here in

>> gabe gutierrez, let's ping-pong over to the democratic side again. let's go to nbc's casey hunt with the sanders campaign in vermont. he has won his home state, loses in georgia and virginia, what's the mood of the crowd? >> reporter: amazingly the crowd here still has not learned that bernie sanders has won his home state of vermont. of course neither have they learned about clinton's wins in those two major states. of course underscoring the fact that this is likely to be an overall rough night for sanders. he himself reiterating when he went to vote today in burlington that he's in this for the long haul, no matter what. potentially all the way to the convention, saying the only 15 states have voted so far and he wants to give more democrats a say in the process. the fund-raising numbers suggest that he may be able to do that. he's raised more than $35 million in the month of february after he asked his online donors

threshold. they raised over $5 million in 24 hours. and that could help power them further on than other challengers. still they're keeping an eye on oklahoma, feeling good about that. they're watching massachusetts very critically and carefully, it's still very close they believe, and that's going to be a key bellwether for some of these other states against hillary clinton. the reality is still they're going to come under enormous pressure for him to ratchet back this campaign or potentially drop out. if he doesn't have a decent showing tonight so that hillary clinton has a chance to run directly against donald trump, lester. >> casey, thank you. we're joined by savannah guthrie. these primaries are taking place against the backdrop of a contentious fight over a vacant seat in the supreme court. the president met with senators, republican senators trying to find a case for filling justice scalia's seat, how high are the

>> incredibly high. three branches of government essentially on the ballot. not just the congress and white house but the supreme court as well because of the passing of justice scalia, a once in a generation chance for president obama or his successor to name someone that would tip that ideological balance on some of the most divisive issues. you see that 5-4 split eighther way on the court. that's why the stakes are so high. it's lime a game of three-dimensional chess for senate republicans. right now their posture is, don't bother to nominate anyone, president obama, we're not giving a vote, we don't want to meet with them, nothing. however, if they're starting to realize it's trump who may be their nominee, does that change the calculus? do they think, maybe he's not as electable against hillary clinton, do we want to roll the dice that hillary clinton wins and she's the one who gets to appoint the new justice? everything very complicated. and the stakes are very, very high. >> some raise the questions about trump's credentials in terms of his republican credibles where he would go with that choice. >> a lot of people have asked that question. he has said he would appoint a

but we've seen in the past how sometimes he'll appoint a justice that doesn't necessarily turn out to be what the president had hoped. >> savannah, we'll be talking with you throughout the evening, thank you. still ahead the name-calling, the schoolyard taunts, the harpest attacks and controversial comments of this presidential race. is this the meanest campaign ever? we're going to take a look. constitute republican race come down to a contested convention? you've probably heard that come up from time to time. we'll explain why it could happen and how it could end up choosing the e introducing longhorn' s big, bold, steaks. the only way to make em' better was to make em' bigger. our new center cut 10 ounce filet.

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disrespect and nasty put-downs are par for the course. it's led a lot of people to wonder if this might be the meanest modern campaign we've seen yet. here's abs's andrea mitchell. >> reporter: from the ethnic insults -- >> they're bringing drugs, they're bringing crime, they're rapists -- >> reporter: to schoolyard taunts. >> biggest ears i've ever seen. >> a guy with the worst spray tan in america is attacking me. >> reporter: the attacks this year have gone from plain old nasty to flat-out crude. >> little rubio, he's a very nasty guy. >> his hands are the size of someone who's 5'2". you know what they say about men with small hands. >> reporter: even those who least expected got in on it. >> i've got to get this off my chest, donald trump is a jerk. >> it's hard to think of any campaign in modern times where you've had the language and the debate be so raw and angry and getting personal. >> reporter: undeniably it is donald trump, the most controversial candidate in

>> jeb is a low-energy person. she said he's a [ bleep ]. they're losers. >> reporter: his sharpest tool, twitter. social media rants sparking a new phrase. >> donald is throwing yet another temper tantrum, if you like trumper tantrum. >> reporter: the personal attacks exploded ahead of today's big contest. possibly marco rubio's last chance. >> maybe make sure his pants weren't wet. >> little mouth on him. bing bing bing bing bing. >> he's flying around on hair force one and tweeting. >> it's rubio! >> reporter: is it the first modern campaign to hit below the belt? in 1992 it was george h.w. bush attacking bill clinton and al gore on foreign policy. >> my dog millie knows more about foreign affairs than these two bow zos. >> reporter: in 2008 about

biggest fairy tale i've seen. >> reporter: but this election has hit a new low. >> there has been nastiness in the past but it was over issues, not personal insults against each other. >> reporter: does nasty campaigning work? we'll find out tonight. andrea mitchell, nbc news back in a moment with other news. they've been kept secret till now. private papers seized from osama

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votes are still being counted. the political experts like our chuck todd say there are only two scenarios left on the republican side, either trump will become the nominee or we're headed for a contested convention. something that hasn't happened

nbc's peter alexander explains. >> reporter: it's a political junkie's dream and a political party's nightmare. a brokered or more accurately contested convention, where no candidates won a majority of delegates before this summer's republican convention. the delegates you keep hearing about -- >> the man that will lead our party to victory -- >> reporter: yeah, those guys. the republican party will assign more than 2,400 of them. right now donald trump has the momentum but less than 100 of the 1237 delegates needed to secure a simple majority. if trump's showing over the next two weeks isn't as strong as some polls might suggest, it gets tougher for him to reach the magic number he'd need to win the nomination outright. beginning march 15th, states will shift from assigning their delegates based on vote counts to winner take all. which could help a candidate like marco rubio catch up quickly. a win in florida, his home state, is worth 99 delegates. but that still might not be

the rubio campaign's reportedly already drafted plans to overtake trump in a contested convention. but ted cruz says it won't come to that. >> a contested convention is the great hope of the republican establishment. that's not going to happen. >> reporter: the last one was decades ago where adlai stevenson got the nod. >> i accept your nomination -- >> reporter: here's how it works. in the first round, most delegates are bound to vote for the candidate they represent. but if there's no clear winner they keep voting and delegates are freed up to pick whoever they want. that's when things get messy. >> having to bend the will of the majority to back one candidate is a large task. >> reporter: and get this, the party's delegates get to create additional rules one week before the convention. there's nothing to stop them from making it easy for a new name to be added to mix, say the 2012 nominee mitt romney, or

an astounding race now potentially on track for a chaotic conclusion. clearly a contested convention is rare and it's very unlikely it would happen this summer. but with a growing movement inside the republican party to support a nominee other than donald trump, tonight several top republicans tell me the odds of a floor fight this sumner cleveland are getting bigger. lester? >> it's a fascinating discussion, peter, thank you. u.s. intelligence has released a treasure trove of documents seized from osama bin laden's compound, including a handwritten will in which he says he's leaving $29 million to be used for waging jihad. also personal letters including one suggesting that bin laden and his aides plan to reach out to news outlets for a media blitz on the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

brokaw joins us with f for some final thoughts on this super tuesday we're joined by tom brokaw. tom, historically speaking, looking at the disarray in the republican party, is it a one-off or fundamental change in that party? >> we're yet to find out. look at history on the other side. democrats 1968 had lyndon johnson forced to step down, bobby kennedy assassinated in los angeles, dr. king killed as well. riots in chicago. vietnam war is going on. the nomination after a contested convention there as well. 72 is george mcgovern for the democrats playing hard left. he only wins one state. after that younger democrats like bill clinton decided there had to be a third way so they reinvented the party.

speaker ryan and others of that generation are now thinking about what do we do with the republican party if trump continues the momentum that he has? i'm going to be looking tonight to see if there are fault lines in what appears to be the juggernaut of donald trump and who at the end of the night is no longer a candidate. >> all right, tom brokaw, thanks very much. that's going to do it for us on a tuesday night, super tuesday. we're back on the air throughout the evening with breaking news and the latest results and our primetime special across the country begins at 10:00 eastern, 9:00 central time. i'm lester holt for all of us at nbc news, thank you for watching

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