captioningponsored by wpbt >> paul: over 6 miion jobs go in the recession and the latest forecasts shothere's more joboss to come. so how long until those americans get backo work. we get some answers. >> sie: the treasury's been working ovtime preparing moun of new debt for auction, $75-billion rth of treasuries hit the market next week. a look at what thameans for interest rates. >> paul: tonight's "street itique" guest says the technicals aret looking so hot r tech stocks. he's todd harrison foundernd c.e.o. of minyville. >>usie: cisco systems' latest results beat expections despite a thirstraight quarter falling sales. our guest tonight, chairman d ceo john chambers says t tech slump may ve reached a tipping point. >> paul: i'm paul ngas. >> susie: and i'm susie ghar. this is "night business reportfor wednesday, august 5. "nhtly business report" is made possible by:

this program was me possible by contributns to your pbs station fr viewers like you. thank you. 7//& >> susie: good eveni, everyone. the big question aut the economicecovery is when will american businesses start hing again? more than 6.5 milln people have lost jobs sincehe recession bega onriday, the labor department reports on unemploent for july. and today payroll processoadp said the nion's businesses cut 371,000 jobs lasmonth the 18th straight month of declines

as darn gersh reports, it's going toake a lot longer than 18 months to get things backo normal. >> reporter: the great recsion has torn through the amerin workrce at an alarming rate. 6.5 milliojobs lost so far. but economist heidi shierhz says the pain es even deeper. >> over those months of the recession, we shouldave added 2.3 miion jobs to keep up with population growth. sohen you sum those two together, 3 million we should have added, plus the 6 million we lost, we're 8.8 milon jobs in the hole. and we are still diggi. >> reporr: by the end of the year, shierholz figures th economy will bshort ten milliojobs. and the united states wot see robust jobrowth until the end ofext year. >> and that's when pple in the real economy will start to fl like, okay, we've enred recovery. >> reporter: so whenill we recover thjobs we've lost? just do the ma. the private adp forecast sws thu.s. economy lost 371,000

jobs last month. to keep upith population growth, economistsigure the u.s. nee to create 130,000 jobs a month. in a recovy, the u.s. should create somhing like 300,000 to 400,00a month, enough to begin reducing unemployment significantly. that means t country won't recor the jobs lost to this ressiotier the year 24 at the earliest. economist an baker says it won't be easy to replace t jobsost because the recession has slammed housing and auto manufacturing, t sectors that usually ive the recovery in hiring. >> in the case of residentia constructionwe have enormous er-capacity. it's very difficult tomagine any significt increase in employment in that sectofor years to com in the case of autos, we canee increased dema, we probably will s increased demand, but a lot of that demand igoing to be for forgn cars right now. reporter: of course, the economy will entually create

enough jobs to make up for tse lost in the grt recession. but those jobs maylso be in diffent industries and many of the spific jobs that went away, may never come back. darren gersh, "nhtly business rert", washington. >> paul: sellers took mmand on wall street from the starts nervouinvestors took profits amid a mix of od and bad reporton the economy. an hour into trang, the dow was off 90 points wi the nasdaq down points. thselling was linked to a cautious outlook from procr & gamble, sizable job loes in that adp jobs forest and a contraion of activity in the serve sector. but an unexpecd rise in ctory orders helped cushion the selloff and cut the maet's losses by the final ll.

>> susie: the governme's hefty appete for capital was whetted today as the treasury annound plans to ation a record $75 billion in nes and bonds next week. bond pricefell on the news while yielon the benchmark 10- year rose to 3.75%. suzanne pratt explai what soaring sales of u.streasuries could meanor you and the inrest rates you pay. >> reporter: on hot summer day you might easily argue there no such thing too much ice crm. when it comes to treasy debt however, too much is ner good no mattewhat the weather.

e u.s. will be flooding the bond market wi a wave of treasuriesn the coming months the likes of which we' never seen. the issuance of de goes to fund our federal budget defit projected at about $1.5 trlion th fiscal year, the biggest ever. treasury market strategi gary pollack says remembethe mortgageurchases, bank bailouts anded liquidity progms. we have to pay for all of th. >> in order stimulate the economy, they crted programs to cate economic activity. in order to nance these prrams, the government must go into the bd market and borrow money from the public. >>eporter: how much money? barclays capitalstimates the trsury will sell more than $2 trilon in debt this year, more than double last ye. and, like any otr marketplace, thbond market reacts to supply and demand. overwhelmi supply without enough demand, mns bond prices wi fall. and yids, which move in the opposite direction, willo up. millerabak's dan greenhaus

says higher bond yield particularly on the bencark 10-yr note, will a have ripple effect throughout theconomy. >>s that interest rate moves upwards it puts upwa pressure on everying from mortgage rates to t amount it costs you to borrow from your bank, anit arguably one of the st important things youhould be aware of >> reporter: worri about too much sply have already nearly doubled thyield on the 10-year this year. but, bond markettrategist michael pond says the's also a good side to the bad sry on higher rat. >> we could also see aincrease in demanfrom individuals as sangs rate rise. at money could go into treasuries if yields go significantly high. here's the scoopn what this means for alamericans includg ice cream lovers. with so much debt slosng around, expertsay we're heading for higher ierest rates. and they'll probly stick around. zanne pratt, "nightly busine report", new yor

paul: now, let's take a lo at some stocks ithe news tonight.

and those arthe stocks in the news tonight, susie. >> susie: paul, thfallout continues to mnt over big wall reet paydays. w regulators want to know mo about bonuses pa to goldman sach employees. in filing with the securities and exchange commiion today, the firm says 's cooperating. ldman also said its board ha goen letters from shareholders, demanding it instigate compensation and consider refming how employees are paid. the governnt also wants informion about goldman's use of credit derivatives. those riskderivative contracts

caused lman brothers to collse and almost took down a.i.g. >> paul:onight's "street itique" guest says the tech market's at a crital point. 's todd harrison, founder an ceo ofinyanville.com. dd welcome back to nbr. >> it's great to be he, paul, thank yo >> paul: you're vetan trader. wh are you seeing tt has you so kerned about the ch. stock? >> well, a a trader i more concerd, i'm lessoncerned withhe destinatio we arrive

at, versus thepath we take to get there. so i'm looking for risk reward constantly in the marketplac and i think thate're at a ncture right now for the technology sect that is critical. it is confluence of technil levels that i'm lookg at, theown trend lines for 200 and also t pot that the tech. market broke from in this past support as future resisnce in the marketplace, the two lines arerossing precisely where were now,which haens to coincide with the 50%etradesman of the ente technology declinerom the top o 2007. s i'm looki at this lel as a critic infltion point. i'm short tenology stocks. if they can pop through to e up side i'm giving melf about 2%, in whichase i'll cut bait but until proven otherwise m shortechnology here for a trade. >> paul: s you're lking at it a carefully every day, i ould imagine. >> i'm staring at it a youay, s, th's basically what i

do. >> paul:kay. what aut the broader market? we've gone tough some major milestones. are we due for a pullback there? >> that's consistent withhat we talked about las time. i do sll believe that wre gog to see aormation, and i thought 950, 950ish o the s&p would have been the middle peak. i was wrong in that. but i sll think that we're going through a process rig now where ter the government effectively boht the cancer and ld the car crash, or put off the crisis, we're going throh a recovery period. and it's tough to run a marathon with canr. so i think it's going to be a prolonged ocess. i'm in noay on board the shaped recovery up u and away. i ink we need to learn fm r mistakes, least risk repeating them. >>aul: what do you make of the potenal ban on flash orderssed by high frequency traders? >> i think the las thing ts market nee and the social od needs and just like

ecology needs righnow is another blacbox or opae financial instrument right now. i think the me transparency the better. i think there wil be a long trail, so t speak, wi rega to high frequency trading anjust who benefit, and i thk that jeffll right now the speer of coetitive disadvange for the public on the mgin, very negative. >> paul: so for t public, be very careful ofwhat you're doing in the way of trading? >> i think that the more transparency in thmarket, i thk trust and truth are mmodities going forward. >> paul: very interesting, and thanks vy much for joining us again, todd. >> tha you, paul. >> paul: my guest,edto harrison >> susie: tomoow, a first look "windows 7" the latest version of microsoft'sconic operating stem. >>usie: the obama ministration says it won't b a back seat driv when it comes to runni general motors and chrysler. auto task force advisor n

bloom says theovernment will not use its stake in t automakers to ma social policy. in fact, bloom saythe administrationants to sell its stake in g.m. and chrysl as soon as possle. but he predicts rysler won't go public unl 2011, at the eaiest. >> paul: for the fst time ever, the securiti and exchge commission is enforcing rules to limitaked short sellin that where an investor sells stock that has not yeteen borrowed. two trads and their firms have agreed to settle the chaes that they violed rules without mitting or denying guilt. hazan catal will pay $3 llion. tjm proprietary ading will pay ha a million dollars.

>> sie: cisco's c.e.o. gave today anpbeat outlook for tenology spending even though e tech titan reported a big dropn quarterly revenues and profits. the stock surged as muchs 3% in after hou trading. excluding arges cisco earned 31 cents a sre in its fiscal fourth quarter2-cents ahead of alysts estimates. revenues fell 18% $8.5 billion, but still in ne with estimate oking ahead cisco expects revenues to fall as ch as 17% in the curre quarter, even thgh orders are picking up.

joining us now, cisco chairm and c.e.o. john ambers. , john. >> hey goodto see you again, ease call me johnf you will. >>usie: john, y sounded prty positive andpbeat on e call withnalysts this afternoon, you were taing about a tippingpoint for te. spending and you said that oers are beginning to take omore of a normal pattern. so is th the beginningf an upturn inech. spending? >> i think there's a good chancet is. during, one-quarr ago our orders for the first me begato level out. they were sll down from the prior quarter 10% or so. dung this last quarter i w our normal quarter in terms of e -- it'sery likely we'll loo back t to three qrters om now and say th was the tippg point on the up turn. not the bottom. it's all right starting up. but i'd like to see the data for two more quarters before i

uld say that. >> susie: what a your custers and c.e.o.s lling you out how much they want to commit to tech. spendg? how robust the pickup so far? >> i thk the pickup will be gradual. it wl be leadg customers by industry. but we saw the balan pricgly across four of our five theaters,he u.s. asia pacific, latin america, emerging markets. the onlyection that was more chlenging was in europe, in europe see saw the quential growth oy up about5%. in the rest of the world it was double dits in every theater. so it s a good start, bu it uld berresponsible to call it a definite tipping point yet. but it's very positive. and we hada great quarter. susie: john, do you have a sense of overalltech. spending outside of cis? what is your take on the mood or what you'reearing of tech. spending across the board overhe next 12 months let's say? >> well, i think whatyou're seeing is customers beginning to take their foot off the

brake and starting to spend gradlly. the opinion of my peers is pretty diverse from various companies in terms of what they're seeing. i tend to be a little more optimistic based on the customers at i talk with, and part of can be the network is playing a different role with text pending and lays a role ineverything from the data cenr to the homes. so at the se time we're not growing off ofur traditional products, we're growing i areas like a flip camer into the home, allhe way through security and adata center or new server technology. >> susie: many people, i'm sure you've heard thisare sayinghe recession is over and th the recovery has begun. is that what you're seeing? >> well, i think it's t early toall it forsure. t if you wat what occurred going back a quarter ago, it felt like it leveled out. thisuarter in terms of o trend from o-quarter to other was the first normal quarter wee seen. so if we see oneto twomore quarters of thisi think that

data will not onl be accurat that's what we'll callit and it's very likely will look back and say this was the tipping int on the up trend, not the bottom, but alrea turning up. >> susie: duri this recession you' got a lot of bs jobs, as have so many other amican companies. do you see doing mor job cuts or are you going to bin ring? >> wel, wre going to begin to hire as o business continues to gro we did very little retruck touring or j layoffshrough e last economic challenge, we've only done one broad rayoffn our history in 2001, i impacted 25% of our cisco family. this time it was relativel small, the 15 to 2,000 range ask th w manyl through restructuring y organizatis. i'm prouto be an american around the world and ouroal is tgrow our hea count as our busiss grows. we sent in the call that we were through with structuring hughs, and now our focus is -

susie: weust have 30 seconds. cisco has a big financial cushion, 33 billion in cash. >> it'sactually 35 billion. you use that aggressively, about 6 billion of it is in the u.s., 29 billion outside the u.s.. we'll use itn everything fromnvestments to financing capability, to acquisitions and you will see us do that over the next to months. >> susie: all right, john, we'll ave it there. thank you so much for coming on the program, a pleasure as always. >>y pleasure as well. >> susie: my gst tonight: john ambers, chairman and c.e.o. cisco. >> paul: he's a look at what's happening tomorrow. susie: that's "nightl business report"or wednesday, aust 5. we want toemind you this is the time of year your public television stationeeks your suppor >> paul: supporthat makes progra like "nightly business report" possible. >> susie: thanks f joining us.

and don't forgeto support your puic television station. i'm sue gharib. goodnit everyone. you o, paul. >> paul: goodnight susie. i'm paul kangas wishg all of you the st of good buys. pose t business report" is

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