captioning spoored by wpbt >> paul: weekly joblesbenefits clms rise unexpectedly, but you might be surpred to learn those benefits aret for everyone. over half of the nation's unemploy aren't covered. >> sie: trucking stocks are facing multiple headwinds. demandor shipping is down, ile costs and competition ar . and analystsre split on whether now's thtime to pick up share >> paul: our guest tonht sees oil pric heading back to the $100 a barrelevel by the end of the year. he's john kildf, energy analyst at m.f. global. >> susie: if youe looking to ade in your old gas guzzler, you'd better do so soo the government is slming the brak on the popular cash for clunkers program. >> paul: i'm paul ngas. >> susie: and i'm sie gharib. this is "nhtly business report" for wednesday, augus 19. "nightly business repo" is made poible by:

this program w made possible byontributions to your pbs station fr viewers like you. thank you.

>> susie: good evening, everyone. an unwelcomeurprise for the u.s.conomy today, as more americans filed for bless benefits. the nuer of claims jumped by 15,000 to a seasally adjusted 576,000. st economists had expected a drop. the report raises questis about the onomic outlook and the strength of the recovery >> susie: while ose unemployment claims rose lt week, not everout-of-work pers is eligible to receive benefits. stephanie dhue explains, there e many categories of who can and cannot get financial help. >> thank you. >> reporter: o of work since june, james phillips is no watcng his sister's kids to help make ends meet. after working for a chch for two years, he found he wast eligib for unemployment benefits, ev though he had worked in the ivate sector for almost 20 ars.

>> the last two years, ihose work for a church-- didn't pay to it, now i don't have it when i need it theost, and that's kind disappointing re than anything. >> reporte phillips is ferishly hunting for a job. he'slso cutting his budget, and dipping into sings. he's not alone. currently, 56% othe jobless are not collecting or don't qualiffor unemployment benefits. falling into the no-nefit catego: new entrants to the workrce, like recent college graduates, mosseasonal workers, and the self employ. ross eisenbrey of the econom policy institute says those workers simp aren't counted. >> for unempyment purposes, they are not employees, no o s paid unemployment insuranc taxes on their behf, they don't get benets, so when they can'find work, they are out of luck. >> reporter: anotheroon to be ouof-luck group, the long-term unemoyed. as of la month, 15% of the unemployed had been t of work for a year omore. and tween september and the end of theear, an estimated one d a half million people

will seeheir unemployment benets run out. >> f example, in new jersey in one weekn september, they will have 33,000 pele who will exhaust all of tir entitlement to benefits. there's a move in congss to extend umployment by an additional 13 eks in states wi high jobless rates. but thaton't help people like james phillips >> you live day to daynot knowing what's aund the corner, you live in a al sort of fear that you may not makit nancially and as a father an a husband, probably e of worst things to go thrgh. >> reporter: stillphillips is hopeful he'll find a job quickly, even though t numbers don't supporthat optimism. nationwide, there arnearly six unemployed people for ery available job. sthanie dhue, "nightly business report," washinon. >> paul: wall street heade

higher tod as that surprise ri in jobless benefit claims was offset by reboundsn most global mkets. by 100 a.m. the dow posted a 38oint gain with the nasdaq up 15 points. stocks extended eir gains on a survey swing a rise in mid- atlantic ftory activity and a 6/10% increase in the july leading ecomic indicators, a fourth straight nthly gain. eady buying persisted and stocks closed near the d's best level the dow ended the day up 789 at 9350.05 the nasdaq added 19.98 to 1989.22. the s&p 500 gain 10.91 to 1007.37. in the bond mark, the 10 year note rose 8/32 t101-21/32 putting the yielat 3.43%.

>> susie: those hier jobless claims numbers also trgered a dr in oil prices today. in new york tring, october crude futures fell 9cents to $72.91 a barrel. joining now to talk more about the outlook for pric, john kilduff energy alyst at m.f. globa hi, john. >> hi, good evening, susie >> so u're prediing $100 oil by the endf the year. that's a big moverom where we are rightow. give us yournalysis? >> well, it's a very real possibility. because ofll the elemes that aret work rig now in the various markets, the recovery you s in the stock market n a way for right now it's good news for us al that oil pris are where they are because it is a real validation that economic activity is back in the calculus of everhing, rticularly in china and certainlin what we are seeing in europe.

as you mentioned tay about the earlier in e show about the leading economic indicators, showing anoer posive reang today. all combining to help push these oil pric up. >>s it real demand, joh because we aays here about --ear about speculations in the market, manipulation in the l market is thiseal economic activity? it's a combinatioof real ecomic activity. it's also aombination dema -- inflation fears that are in this market that e beingdriven by budget and monetary policiesround the world. alsohe fallingdollar is driving this prospect as well. it's a coinationof that and constrained supply. sai arabia is chief among opec members in cplying with their qta by $110% so they really cut back as have our nations refiners in terms of their ru rates. e amount of gasoline and dieseluel they are producing. also very ch constrain, nning at below 85%, really all year to try to kp a

lid on burgeoning supplies. >> well, nowhat you bring up opec, they do have meeting coming up on september 9th. do you expect opec ministers to increase output, cut output or ep it right where its. >> it will berice dependent to degree but to the extent we are below $85 a barrel they wil do nothing. howevethey are in a very activist modev been now for a couple of years. ifrices continue to go higher, i would look for moves qukly by sau aria, they got more oil on the market and for them to convene via telephone if not in a special meeng to up all the pduction quotas to get e price under control. theyon't want it to ru away aga and to trip us back into another round of a recession o economic contraction. >> let me back up little bit again on your$100 oil priction. what does that translate to at the pump? what would that mean for gasone prices? >> much higher obviously. i do want say, i'm not saying itirtual lock.

because therwill be price sistence at points such as 80 and $8 a barrel there will be consumer pushback as gasoline retail prices climb well above tt $3 bevel vel. hast yr we didn't see the consumer pull ba until gasoli prices got over $4 a gallon. this year the consumer here especially in the united states, much more impoveried. doesn't havehe ability at all toithstand that those kind of numbs. so the push up towards $1 -- will be felt and reacted to but i do think we'reoing to see it because ofhe various factors that we talked aut. the u.s. dlar abouting down,nflation pressures and redemand particularly out of china and the rest of the world whe they use a lot of diesel fuel ere say big ca for it. and look for it to be, the ocks that we do have on hand to be dwindle quickly. >> a lot has be made of the economts that we talked to on our program that the economic recovy may no be a very sha recovery, may no beery robust recovy. it could be mild. if that were the case, what

does that mean for the price of oil. maybe chinas booming but if the u.s. economy isn't, couldhat keep a lid on oil pres? what weave is a bit of a strtural desilt in terms of crude production glally and refining capacity. as we approach near normal refining activity we a in tight energy supply situation it relates fossil fuels or crude oil based fuels. so china just lt month importednother record amount ofcrudeoil rivaling last year's stellar numbers. sohat is fear. that is why you are seeing energy pris really run ahead of every other asset ass in terms it of pricing in the recovery. >> all right, will have to leave it the. john, thanyou so much for coming othe program tonight. >> thankou. >> my guest tonight jo kilduff of mf global. >> paul: home foreclures and rtgage delinquencies are hittg new highs. the mogage bankers association today reporting a record3% of mortgages we in foreclosure or

at least one payme past due during the secd quarter. and the mix of problemoans is channg. foreclosures on subpri adjustable-ratmortgages actual fell this spring, while the nuer of prime fixed-rate foreclosures re. prime loans accounted r one in three foreosures in q-2. the mortgage banke say that reects the toll of job losses on home loan defaults. >> paul: there's a sayg among invests: so goes trucking, so goes the ecomy. that's because trucks carr70% of the manuftured and retail goods around the country.

the industry is typically amg the first toenefit from a pick-up in csumer demand. erika miller lookst whether the road ahe is bumpy or bright. >>eople now are moving into gger places, finally. and they're moving io homes again finally and en businees are finding bigger office sce because they're getting good deals, so why n? >> rorter: if you want to feel good about the economi recovery, talk wh jon katz at flat re moving. new york largest mover says business has bn improving steadily ts year. ditto for profits. >> we' down slightly from ere we were last year. but we feel go about the rest of this year. and we fl we're really going to even out. >> reporter: b plenty of other transptation companies are suffering, eecially freight carriers. shipmes are down, because coumers and businesses are buyi fewer things. the total weig of truck shipnts has dropped 15% nationwi over the past year and a half. transportation economistaul bingm says many truckers are battling for svival.

>> the biggestonstraint right now just a lack of demand. they just don't have eugh frght-- enough customers out there generating enough revee toover their sunk costs in terms of the assets theye got. the trucks and the yards andhe equient that they've invested in. >> reporter: and, is year, relatively few freightompanies have gone out ofusiness. transptation analyst chris ceraso says at's because fuel prices are cheaper than th were a yeaago. >> this time last yearhigh fuel prices were acceleratg e demise of some truckers, th fuel prices collapsed earlier this year. that has kept someruckers in business-- exacerbating the supply/demd imbalance and adng to the fact that prices are depressed. >> repter: despite the challenging environmen trucking stocks ha been trucking higheon hopes an economic recovery finally underway. the dow nes u.s. trucking index has zoomed 58% from e march 9 lows beang the overall stock market. >> reporter: but anasts say be careful about buying truckg

stocks now. after all, there's sti no proof a turnaround in shipment volume. >> i think the worst othe declines areehind us... rently behind us. think we're at an inflection int here. i think we will still see ye over year decles for the next few quarte. but the declines will be getting smaller. >> reporter: but iyou believe flatrate moving, this may be pickinup. the company hire50 new workers may, in order to meet risin demand. ika miller, "nightly busines report,"ew york >> susie: 's the end of the ad for the popular cash for clunkers program. the obama administrati will pull the plug on the $billion rebate program at 00 p.m. eastertime monday evening. buyers can sti trade their gas-guzzlers ts weekend for rebates on new fuel ficient models of up to $4,500ollars. thdepartment of transportion is still trying get a read on how much money is left in e program and hosoon it can pay back dealers. meanwhile, general motorand chrysl said they will help their dealers with the cas

crunch creat by the clunkers program. they'll give cash advanceso dealers still waiting r uncle sam to pay clunker cims. dealers ross the country have beenomplaining about the slow and difficult rebursement proces the department of transportion says the paynt process is picking up wh 37% of claims now paid. >> paul:n the positive side, susie, the program has bn a success with roughlyalf a million sales onhe books. now let's take a look atome stocks in the news tonight

>> paul: and those a the stocks tonight. sue? >> susie: morgan stanley ionce agaihiring, thanks to the mark rebound. e wall street investment fir is looking to ll 400 trading and sales positions. morgan stanley cutts trading staff last year as it grappl withhe credit crisis. t with its rivals pulling in big ofits on fixed income and equity trang in recent quters. morgan is movi to beef up those operations. >> paul: tomorrow, our friy market monit guest is mark skousen, editor of thenvesting newsletter "recasts and strategies >> susie: yourorning caffeine fix could soon ct a little more, as starbucks aounced price changes toda in some citi, the coffee chain is charging upo 25 cents more for its most complex coffe

concoctions li frappacinos. buit's trimming prices on some basic drinks by a niel to ten cents. starbucks says the changes wl go nationwide over the nexfew months. >>aul: no signs of the recessn at jet blue. the airline has sold o of its $5 "all you can jet" passes. the company saidt received overelming demand for the deal, ich allows unlimited travel between stember 8 and october 8 on jet blue plan. the sellout comes a week aer the de was launched and two days bore the offer was scheduled to end.

>> susie: here's a look at what's happeng tomorrow. federal reserve chairman ben bernanke gives his reflectns on year in crisis at a fed conferencen jackson hole, wyoming. also tomorrow, existing home sales are released and quartly resultfrom j.m. smucker and ann taor stores. if the recession is windin down, why are consumers an businessesaving a hard time getting bank fincing. toght's "two ways to play" looks at the reasons behinthe slow cdit flow. here's kevin depew of "minyanville" and "minyanville's" kevin dew. >> access to credit isetting tighte banks are not onlyutting credit les for more consumers, they're also becing more

aggressive in eir cuts. nventional wisdom says the economcan't recover without access to credit. but a recent studyf all nine post-worldar ii recessions by barclaysapital, says this thinki may be wrong. according to thetudy, in the firsyear of recovery net new borrowing almost alws lags the economy. the study also points out th, storically, borrowing by householdsnd corporations always falls in the firsyear of recery, which is precisely what is happeng today. >> as yove pointed out, the supply of cred is certainly falling, a that's typical of how most recessionunfold, but there are two sides to the credit cn. availability ocredit on the one side, demand f credit on e other. dung prior recessions, credit availabity was a short-term prlem, largely because the undeying demand for it was still present. no however, both availability and demand for credit are declining. that's key, beuse credit demand is the side of the in the feral reserve cannot control. a central bank canake credit ailable, but there must be demand for it or it's li throwing aarty where no one shows up.

>> susie: more now, on o top stor unemployment. as more people fd themselves lookinfor work, many are attending job fairs. today, more than 350 job candidates camface to face with recruiters, but thiwas no ordinary job fai it wasesigned specifically to help those whoe served their country. they describe the event, i their n words. >> anybody's got a resume. i'd apprecte getting a copy of it. >> the purpo of today's event is kind of basally for a way for veterans to coect with companies. because companies just c't just walonto a base and say i'here to hire veterans and veteransan't walk into any corporatamerica building and say, "hey i'm a veteran, pase hire me." so this is a way for them to come together-- on one accd and get to what's ually the st step, which is face to fa meeting. >> wdo see a better quality of candidate it seems at e cruit military job fairs. then, i would say than the average job fair tt we go to. just bause the military core values are so tightly inteoven

with wt we have at bank of america. >> my job search igoing real well. they fou at a table down there... navdefense contractors. becae i have my license, they said i found a hard to fill position and they're tryg to get past.r. right now anget meired, so is going real we. but to some, have supp chain exrience that translates very well into r supply chain environmen contra negotiation type "o" experience, rporate security, inrmation security, business continty that disaster management bkground in preparing for things to happ that you can imagine ithe banking business translatevery well. >> take my card to our webse and see what's on there. i'm hearing a lo some obviously are ting time and lking, but there are some also that are just givinthat information and that's almt a daily ritual. next step is tcontinue this process on a daily basis, d search every avenue at 's ailable for job recruitment, whether it's onlin or through

an agency... whatever, tt's critical. just stayi out there and being exposed to as manypportunities as posble. that's prettmuch it. susie: that's "nightly business rort" for thursday, august 2 i'm susie ghib goodnight, eryone and good nighto you, paul. >> paul: goodnightsusie. i'paul kangas wishing all of you the st of good buys. "nightly business report" made possiblby:

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