captioning sponsor by wpbt >> paul: weekly jobless befits claimsise unexpectedly, but you might be surprisedo learn those benefits an't for everyone. over half of the nation's unempled aren't covered. >>usie: trucking stocks are facing multiple headwind dema for shipping is down, while costs and competition e up. and analys are split on whether now's e time to pick up shas. >> paul: our guest tight sees oil pres heading back to the $100 a barl level by the end of the year. he's john kilduff,nergy alyst at m.f. global. >> susie: if y're looking to trade in your old gas guzzle you'd better do so soon. the government is slammi the brakes othe popular cash for clunkers program. >> paul: i'm paul kang. >> susie: and i'm susigharib. this is "night business rert" for wednesday, august 19. "nightly business report" is made possib by:

this programas made possible contributions to your pbs station om viewers like you. thank you.

susie: good evening, everyone. an unwelcome surise for the u.s. ecomy today, as more americans filed for jobls benefits. the numberf claims jumped by 15,000 to a seasonal adjusted 576,000. mostconomists had expected a drop. the report raises questions about the econic outlook and thstrength of the recovery. >> susie: while thos employment claims rose last week, not every ouof-work person ieligible to receive benefits. as sphanie dhue explains, there are ny categories of who can and cannot get financial help. >> thank you. >> reporter:ut of work since june, james phillips is w watchingis sister's kids to lp make ends meet. after working for a churchor o years, he found he wasn't eligible f unemployment benefits, en though he had worked in thprivate sector for almost 2years.

>> the last two years, chose to work for a church-- didn' painto it, now i don't have it when i need it t most, and that's kind of dappointing morehan anything. >> reporter: pllips is feverily hunting for a job. he's alscutting his budget, and dipping into savin. he's not alone. currently, 56% of thjobless arnot collecting or don't qualify founemployment benefits. falling into the no-benet category: w entrants to the workforc like recent college graduates, most seonal woers, and the self employed. ro eisenbrey of the economic pocy institute says those workers simply an't counted. >> for unemploymt purposes, th are not employees, no one has id unemployment insurance taxes on their behalf,hey don't get benefitsso when they can't fi work, they are out of luck. >> reporter: another sooto be out-ofuck group, the long-term unemploy. as of last mth, 15% of the unemployed had been out work for a year or mo. and betwn september and the end of the yea an estimated one and half million people

will see the unemployment benefitsun out. >> for emple, in new jersey in one we in september, they will have 33,000 ople who will exhaust all ofheir entitlement to benefits. there's a move in coress to extendnemployment by an additional 1weeks in states with hh jobless rates. but that won help people like james phillips. >> you live day to day, no knowing what's arounthe corner, you live in a realort ofear that you may not make it finaially and as a father and a husband, probably one worst things to go through >> reporter: still, phlips is hopeful he'll find a job quickly, even though the nbers don't support th optimism. nationwide, there are nely six unemployed people for ever available job. stephae dhue, "nightly business report," washington paul: wall street headed

higher today athat surprise rise ijobless benefit claims was offset by rebounds in st global marke. by 10:00.m. the dow posted a 38 poi gain with the nasdaq up 15 points. stocks extended theigains on a survey showi a rise in mid- atlantic facto activity and a 10% increase in the july leading econom indicators, a fourth straight monty gain. stea buying persisted and stocks closed near the day's best levels. e dow ended the day up 70.89 at 9350.05. e nasdaq added 19.98 to 1989.22. the s&p 500 gained 191 to 1007.37. in the bond market, e 10 year note rose 8/32 to 1021/32 putting the yield at.43%.

>> susie: those higherobless claims numbers also trigged a drop ioil prices today. in new york tradin october crude futures fell 92 ces to $72.91 a barrel. joining us n to talk more out the outlook for prices, john kilduff energy analt at m.f. global. hi, john. hi, good evening, susie. >> so you' predictin $100 oil by the e of the year. that's a big mo from where we are rig now. give us your analysis? >> well, it's a very real possibility. because all the elents that a at work rht now in the various markets, the recovery youee in the stock market n a way f right now it's good news for us l that oil pces are where they are because it a real validation that economic activity is back in th calculus of evything, particularly in china and certaiy in what we are seeing in europe.

as you mentionedoday about the earlier ithe show about the leading economic indicators, showing ather potive reading today. l combining to help push these oil prices up. >> is real demand, john? because we alway here about -- heaabout eculations in the markets, manipulation in the oil market is this real economic activity? >> it's a combinatn of real enomic activity. it's also combinationof dend -- inflation fea that are in this market that are being driven by budget and monetar policies around the world. al the falling dollar is driving this prospect as well. so it's a mbination of that and constrained supply. udi arabia is chief among opec membs inomplying with theiruota by $110% s they really cut bac as have our nations refiners in terms of their n rates. the amount of gasoline and dies fuel they are producing. also vermuch constraed, running at below 85%, really all ye to try toeep a

lid on burgeoning supplies. >> well, n that you brin up opec, they di have meeting coming up september 9t do you expec ope ministers to increase output, cut output okeep it right where is. >> it will be price dependent to a degre but to the extent we are below $85 a barrel they wl do nothing. hower they are in a very activist mod v been now fo a couple of years. prices continue to go higher, would loo for moves quickly by sdi abia, they got more oil on the market and fo them to convene vi telephone if not in a special mting to up all theroduction quotas to gethe price under control. they don't want it to run away again a to trip us back into anotheround of a recession or economic contraction. >> let me back up a lile bit again o your $1 o predicon. what does that translate to at the pump? at would that mean for gasolinerices? >> muchhigher obviously. i do want to say, i'm not saying it a viral lock.

because there wi be price resience at points such as 80 and $85 a barrel there will be consumer pushback a galine retail priceslimb well above that $3 bevel leve hast year didn't see the consumer pull back until gasoline prices g over $4 a gallon. this year theonsumer here pecially in the united states,much more impoverished doesn't have thebility at all to wittand that those kind of numbers. so the push up towards $1 -- wi be felt and reacted to but i do think we're goi to see it because of the various factors thatwe talked about the u.s. dolla abouting down, inftion pssures anredemand pticularly t of china and the rest of the world where they use a lot of diesel fuel ther say big ll for it. and look for it to be, the stocks that we do have on hand to be dwindd quickly. >> a lot has en made of the econists that we talked to on our progr that the econom recery may t be a very srp recovery, may t be a very robust recery. it could be mild. if that were the case, what

does that mean for the price of oil. maybe china is boomi but if the u.s. economy isn't coul that keep a lid on oil ices? what we have is a bit of a suctural desil in terms of crude production obally and refining capacity as we approach near normal refining activity were in a tight energy supply situatioas it relatesto fossil fuels or crude oil based fuels. so china jusast month import another record amount of crude oil rivaling last year's stellar number that is fear. that is why y are seeing energy pces really run ahead of every other asset class in terms it of pricing in the recovery. >> all right, we wl have to leave it there. john, thank yoso much for coming on thprogram toght. >> thank you my guest tonight john kilduff of mf global. >> paul: home foreclosur and mortge delinquencies are hitting w highs. the mortga bankers association today reporting a record 13%f mortgages were iforeclosure or

at least one payment pt due during the second arter. and the mix of problem loa is changing foreclosures on subprime adjustable-rate mogages actually fl this spring, while the numberf prime fixed-rate foreclosures rose. prime loans accounted for e in three forecloses in q-2. the mortgage bankers s that reflec the toll of job losses onome loan defaults. >> paul: there's a saying ong investors:o goes trucking, so goes the economy at's because trucks carry 70 of the manufactud and retail gos around the country.

thindustry is typically among the first to benit from a pick-up in consur demand. erika miller looks at ether the road ahead ibumpy or bright. >> peoe now are moving into bigg places, finally. and they're moving into mes again finally and even businessesre finding bigr office spaceecause they're geing good deals, so why not? >> reporr: if you want to feel good about the economic recovery, talk with n katz at flat rate ving. new york's lgest mover says business has been proving steadily this ar. ditto for profits. >> we're dn slightly from wherwe were last year. but we feel od about the rest of this year. and weeel we're really going to even out. >> reporter:ut plenty of other tranortation companies are suffering,specially freight carriers. shipnts are down, because nsumers and businesses are bung fewer things. the total weht of truck shments has dropped 15% nationde over the past year and a half. transportation economi paul biham says many truckers are battling forurvival.

>> the bigge constraint right nois just a lack of demand. they just don't havenough eight-- enough customers out there generating enough renue cover their sunk costs in terms of the assets th've got. the trucks and the yards a the eqpment that they've invested in. >> reporter: andthis year, relatively few freight comnies have gone out of busess. transportaon analyst chris ceraso says that because fuel ices are cheaper than they were a year ag >> this time last year, hi el prices were accelerating the mise of some truckers, then fl prices collapsed earlier this year. that has kept some truers in business-- exacerbating the supply/dand imbalance and ding to the fact that prices are depressed. >> rorter: despite the challenging environmt, trucking stocks ve been trucking higr on hopes an economic recoveris finally underway. the dojones u.s. trucking index has zoomed 58% frothe march 9 lows bting the overall stock market. >> reporter: but alysts say be careful about buying truing

stocks now. after all, there's sll no prooof a turnaround in shipment volum >> i think the worstf the declines a behind us... cently behind us. i think we're at an inflecti point here. i think we will still see ar over year deines for the next few quarrs. but ose declines will be getting smaller. >> reporter: butf you believe flatrate moving, tngs may be pickg up. the company hid 50 new workers in may, in order to meet rising demand. erikmiller, "nightly business report," nework >> susie: it'she end of the roador the popular cash for clkers program. the obama administration wl pull the plug on the $3 biion rebate program a8:00 p.m. eastn time monday evening. buyers can sll trade their gas-guzzlers this ekend for rebates on new fueefficient models of up to $4,5 dollars. e department of transptation is still tryinto get a read on how much money is left ithe program and w soon it can pay back dealers. meanwhile, general mots and chryer said they will help their dealers with the ch

crunch creed by the clunkers program. they'll give cash advanc to dealers still waitinfor uncle sam to pay clunkerlaims. dealeracross the country have be complaining about the slow and difficult imbursement procs. the department of transptation says the pment process is picking upith 37% of claims now paid. >> pau on the positive side, susie, the program haseen a success with rough half a million sales the books. now let's take a look some stocks in the news tonig.

>> paul: and thosere the stocks tonight. sie? >> susie: morgan stanleys once agn hiring, thanks to the maet rebound. the wall street investment fm is looking tfill 400 trading and sales positions. morgan stanley c its trading staff last year as it graped wi the credit crisis. but with its rivals pulling biprofits on fixed income and equity tding in recent arters. morgan is mong to beef up those operations. >> paul: tomorrow, our fday market monor guest is mark skousen, editor of t investing newsletterforecasts and strategi." >> susie: yo morning caffeine fix could soonost a little more, as starbucksnnounced price changes toy. in some cities, e coffee chain is charging up to cents more for its most complex cofe

concoctions ke frappacinos. t it's trimming prices on so basic drinks by a ckel to ten cents. starbucks says the changesill go nationwide over the nt few months. paul: no signs of the receion at jet blue. the airline has soldut of its 99 "all you can jet" passes. the company sa it received ovwhelming demand for the dealwhich allows unlimited travel betweeneptember 8 and october 8 on jet blue ples. the sellout comes a weekfter the al was launched and two daysefore the offer was scheduled to end.

>> susie: here's a look at what's hapning tomorrow. federal reserve chairman b bernanke gives his refleions a year in crisis at a fed conferen in jackson hole, wyoming. also tomorrow, existing ho sas are released and quarterly results fr j.m. smucker and ann taylortores. the recession is winding wn, why are consumers and businesses havg a hard time getting bank financi. tonighs "two ways to play" oks at the reasons behind th slow crediflow. he's kevin depew of "minyanville" and "minyanville's" kevin depew. >> access to credit is getng tighter. banks are not only cutng credit linesor more consumers, they're also becominmore

aggressive in theicuts. convtional wisdom says the economy cat recover without access to credit. but a recent study of l nine post-world wari recessions by barclays capal, says this thinking m be wrong. according to the stu, in the first ye of recovery net new borrowing almost always gs the economy. thstudy also points out that, histically, borrowing by households andorporations always falls in the first ye of recover which is precisely what is happening day. >> as you'veointed out, the supply of credit icertainly falling, and tt's typical of how most recessions unld, but the are two sides to the credit coin. availability of crit on the one side, demand for cdit on the her. duringrior recessions, credit availabilityas a short-term proble largely because the underlyi demand for it was still present. now, hever, both availability d demandor credit are declining. that's key, becauscredit mand is the side of the coin the federareserve cannot control. a central bank can makcredit avaible, but there must be demand for it or it's like throwing a par where no one shows up.

>> susie: more now, on our t story: umployment. as more people find emselves looking fowork, many are tending job fairs. toy, more than 350 job candidates came fa to face with recruiters, but this wano ordinary job fair. it was desned specifically to help those who've rved their country. they describe the event,n theiown words. anybody's got a resume. i'd appreciateetting a copy of . >> the purpose otoday's event is kind of basical for a way for veterans to connecwith companies. because companies just can't just walk on a base and say i'm he to hire veterans and vetera can't walk into any corpore america building and say, "hey i'm a veteran,lease hire me." so this is a way for them come together-- on one aord and get to what'usually the last step, which is face to ce meeting. >>e do see a better quality of candidate it seems athe recruit military job fairs. then, i would say than the average job fairhat we go to. justecause the military core values are so tightly inrwoven

withhat we have at bank of america. >> my job searchs going real well. they fnd at a table down there... ny defense contractors. beuse i have my license, they said i found a hard to fil position and they're ting to get pa h.r. right now d get hired, so it's ing real well. but to some, have supply cin experice that translates very well into our pply chain environment. contract notiation type "o" experience, corpate security, informion security, business continuityhat disaster management backgund in preparing for things to haen that you can imaginen the banking business translas very well. >> take my cargo to our weite and see what's on there. i'm hearing a t. some obviously areaking time antalking, but there are some also that are just givg that information and that's aost a daily ritual. next step is to coinue this ocess on a daily basis, and search every avenue thats avaible for job recruitment, whether it's online, othrough

an agency... whatever, that's crical. just stang out there and being exposed to as ma opportunities as psible. that's prey much it. >> susie: that's "nightly businesseport" for thursday, august0. i'm susie arib goodnight,veryone and good nit to you, paul. >> paul: goodnig, susie. m paul kangas wishing all of you thbest of good buys. "nightly business reportis made possie by:

this programas made possible by contributions to your p station fromiewers like you. thank you. >> are pbs. captioning sponsoredy wpbt captioned by media cess group at wgbh access.wgbh.org