>> what do you think a tree can be? can it be stronger than steel? can treat the biodegradable plastic? can it be fuel for our cars? or clothing, or medicine that fights cancer? but our tree cell technology, we think it can. weyerhaeuser, growing ideas. >> i am running for president, so remember the name mitt romney. >> this week on "inside washington," the republican showdown in iowa, where polls

indicate better numbers for romney, paul, santorum, as gingrich support weakens. >> how long do we have to stay in korea? we have been there since i was in high school. >> ron paul gets a boost from an unlikely battlefield conversion -- namely, michele bachmann's iowa campaign chair. >> i believe ron paul is in the top tier and i'm here to help. withe new york times a season of primaries -- a new year comes with a season of primaries. captioned by the national captioning institute --www.ncicap.org-- thanks for joining us. i'm mark shields. gordon peterson will be back next week. things have changed since last

we were together. newt gingrich's slide in the polls was not helped by his campaign's failure to qualify for the virginia republican primary. >> it was just a mistake. we hired somebody who turned in false -- turned in it 11,100 -- 1500 of them were -- [unintelligible] >> i think he compared that to pearl harbor? it is more like lucille ball at the chocolate factory. [laughter] you have got to get it organized. >> gingrich's problems provided an opening for other campaigns, especially that of ron paul and mitt romney, followed closely by rick santorum, who jumped into double digits. jeanne cummings, what wound, self-inflicted or otherwise,

most led to gingrich's fall from grace? >> there is much in his background that was going to come up. his work with nancy pelosi in that ad on the environment, his work with freddie mac, an organization that conservatives hate because of its role in the collapse of the housing market, and the millions of taxpayer money that had to go to bail out. but i think what really hurt him the most was when conservative opinion leaders, calls here at table, -- like charles here at the table, glenn beck, and others, when those people came out and said whoa, this sunday we cannot support, those are people that iowa voters really listen to. that gave credence to what became an avalanche of attack

ads that ran against him. 45% at the attack ads in iowa have been aimed at gingrich. $2.5 million in versus his $250,000 in positive ads. he has been just pummeled with ads that tell people about the baggage he carries. >> charles, have you been complicit in his downfall? >> i would like to believe everything jeanne has said. kingslayer is a nice title, but i don't think i deserve it, although the team which campaign has implied as much -- the gingrich campaign has implied as much. the reason he has fallen is that there are things and his background, particularly the pelosi ad and freddie mac stock, that i think the vast majority of people in iowa didn't know. until about three months ago, i didn't know it either, and i am in the business, so i am sure that ordinary iowans who don't

have to follow news as obsessively as i do, for my sins, learning about this were as surprised as i was about the pelosi ad and a $1.6 million he had taken in. of course, leveled all the fire against him in. -- his opponents level of fire against him. and now president of that -- an unprecedented amount of money on negative at ads, the most impressive of which from ron paul, of all people. it was an accumulation of new knowledge. >> the system works. over a long period of time, you find out what people are really like. newt is admirable in many ways, but he is just not a credible president of the united states. there are real questions about his leadership ability. someone said he cannot organize a two-car funeral. he has never been a good

leader, never been a good manager, and now the public knows that. >> it struck me, colby, that the criticism up so many former colleagues, of the same philosophical bent as gingrich, took a toll on him. >> this started within the beltway, people in the house and senate who just do not want him at the top of the ticket. they think it hurts the republican efforts in the senate and house. also, what we've learned about newt gingrich is that he is not a good organizer. the fact that he got whacked out there in iowa is because he doesn't have the money to respond to the criticism. he does not have much in the tv at all. he doesn't have the ground troops out there. plus, there is his own baggage, newt gingrich himself.

what they are putting fingers at is his record, who he is, what he has done, and that is taking him down. >> mitt romney does have to make more contemporary his analogies and metaphors. i mean, lucille ball in the chocolate factory? that is going back to the korean war. >> marie antoinette he compared obama -- >> that is historical, but i mean, lucille ball? there has been a lot of television since then. >> a lot of people want to bring back the 1950's and he is like a 1950's sort of guy. >> reformed don draper is what mitt romney is. >> mark, it was a classic episode. [laughter] >> the battle is on for the hearts of true conservatives. >> i am an insider in the sense of being able to get things done, but an outsider in being able to do what i have done, which is performed congress, and throw bombs when they need to be

thrown. >> there is rick santorum, a trumpet in his credentials as an insider-outsider willing to throw bombs when necessary. why, after all these months, is rick santorum cadging now, charles krauthammer? >> a lot of reasons. eight years ago on the democratic side, a gephardt and howard dean were in front. they attack each other relentlessly. kerry and edwards slipped by, won iowa, and of course were on the ticket. a lot of the candidates whose heads were about that it's got a lot of our to the incoming as a result, except said tora. p -- except santorum. paul attacking bachmann, bachmann attacking gingrich, etc. -- the only one who is not

untouched its central rate he is getting his moment now, but the timing is perfect, because it is at the end. there was one attack on him a day or two ago, but it is not going to work. he now, if he emerges in the top three, will be the non-romney. ron paul is not a plausible presidential candidate in the end. we will see how he stands up to it. every other candidate who has had his moment in the sun has come down. >> it is more than just not being attacked. he has some positives that have not been notice as much outside of iowa. the evangelical conservatives in iowa, a big part of the constituency, have been the ones who have been shifting and shifting trying to find their candidate, and have been scattered among candidates. they are starting to coalesce behind santorum. he received a very important endorsement from evangelicals leader in iowa, mr. vander

plaats. that is what is giving him some momentum as well. it is positive energy as well as a void -- >> whatever is driving it, romney ought to be paying a santorum, because he is the perfect blocking guy did a much bigger threat would be if rick perry made a comeback. he as a ton of money, and aside from this horrible it debates, he is a fairly plausible national candidate. it is a lucky thing for romney -- >> perry's numbers are rising. >> i know that, but if it were not for santorum, his numbers would be really rising. >> colby king, the emergence of rick santorum and the success of ron paul is a great argument for keeping the caucuses as far as iowa is concerned, because both of them have followed the

traditional role, the root of going to 99 counties, meeting upon meeting, we tell voting. is that going to pay off? >> it is helpful. whether it is a primary or caucus, it forces and allows us to have a good look at the candidates and know who they are, what they are all about. the iowa caucus is important. i don't think people ought to disparage it at all. what we are seeing that is interesting is the real version that evangelicals have to mitt romney. i don't think that is just an iowa phenomenon. we will see that throughout the primaries as well. romney still needs to make inroads with the social conservatives. >> is that because of his faith or his ideology? >> it is a come8 a nation of people thinking -- it is a combination of people thinking he is more moderate than he

pretends to be carried out the key i -- that he pretends to be. i don't it is his faith as a mormon but the fact that he is not an evangelical like the governor of arkansas -- >> mike huckabee. >> oh, i think the fact that he is mormon is a liability with this constituency. >> we did a poll on that, a bloomberg poll, and try to get at the question differently -- >> "are you a bigot?" >> do you think that mormonism is part of the christian tradition, yes or no? it was about a 50-50 split. the people thought that mormonism was part of the christian tradition had romney as their no. 1 candidate. the people who viewed it as

something different at had him t fourth. it was republican likely caucus attendees. just to add to evan's thought about rick perry, romney's camp has been most afraid of perry, because he has the money any very good life story to tell. had he not collapsed in the debates, that was the candidate they feared by far the most. >> santorum appeals said the three -- appeals to the thre reagan leggs republican is a bit on social issues, he is the most reliable. on foreign issues, he went after ron paul for isolationism. on economics, he is a down-the- line conservative treaty does not have the baggage and the

apostasies on issues. >> ron paul is running one-two out of every poll in iowa. heresy, apostasy, what does he have going for him, evan? >> more good news for romney, because he cannot get elected. what is hisuse h appeal? >> isolationism place well in the midwest. they don't want to be in afghanistan, iraq. isolationism does not play well nationally but it does in iowa. also, he has been there a long time, has an on-the-ground network, and that the difference. >> i saw him at speak before a veterans group this week. a number of young people went up to him and said, "dr. paul --" they refer to him as dr. paul -- "i am honored to be in your

presence." he is almost like a cult figure for some young people out there, and veterans as well. veterans will support him. >> he has the biggest veterans' support of anybody in this state at the moment. to follow up on what colby king had to say, are we making too much of iowa? it is one of the few places where we still seek retail politics, where candidates are forced to answer questions from real-life people like truck drivers. but not everyone is sold on its continuing significance in the nominating process. gail collins in "the new york times" poked fun at the state for being unrepresentative. does iowa deserve all this criticism, evan thomas? >> yes and no. [laughter] >> there is a bold statement. >> it is not representative in

that it is isolationist, extremely far right, and it has not picked presidents. but one great thing is the retail business, that you have to go out there and meet folks. because it is a long process, we do get to know them, and their colleagues and values are shown -- and failures are shown. >> that tradition has been really eroded this cycle. we know that santorum went to all 99 counties, bachmann wants to do the same thing. but romney barely went there, and he is closing strong. >> he did campaign four years ago there. >> he did and lost. this time he was too afraid to commit and put himself out there. what we're seeing in iowa this cycle is more of what we're seeing nationally, lots of

television advertising, instead of a lot of the town hall sorts of things. we have had debates and tv ads, but we're not seeing the same kind of retail politicking that we had seen in cycles past. >> let me give figures on the representativeness. in 2008, barack obama about 54% in iowa, 53% nationally. george bush got 52% in iowa, 50.7% nationally. that is pretty damn representative of the nation if you are talking politically and away eight votes -- and the weighted votes. i went back to 1996 -- >> but why does it have to be? if you wanted a representative at stake, we would have one primary election in missouri, and then called off. if you look at it in context, it works. we have arrived by pure accident

at a system where a is iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, nevada, and florida as leadoff states. that is a wonderful way to sample the country. it gives each state a chance. i don't see why it has to be a state that is exactly rep. in context together, it works -- if you put it in context and together, and works. >> it is a wonderful proving ground. we learn something about them as a result of the iowa caucuses -- their ability to organize, their ability to define issues. sure, it is the sort of a circular firing squad they have out there, but newt gingrich was firing blanks and everybody said he would be the heavyweight. this -- the first in the nation is always going to be helpful, whether it is a caucus or primary. it helps us focus our attention on something important. >> iowa will probably always

remain first, at least for the duration here, in part because who is going to change it? once you open it that can of worms, who is going to be no. 1 if 9 iowa? -- if not iowa? if you choose a large state, candidates like rick santorum cannot survive, because they are more dependent on money to get the message out. you would have a huge fight over who would replace iowa, and for both parties that is not worth having. >> that is the strongest argument, the david and goliath, that you can get the underfinanced, underdog candidate and at st. through sheer effort, personal charisma, whatever, message. >> and then he gets whacked in new hampshire. >> well, you win both of them and you are on the way.

>> chris dodd moved to iowa with his family four years ago and just -- his candidacy collapsed there. >> iowa has never elected a woman member of congress or a woman governor. hillary clinton lost their in 2008. michele bachmann -- is her problem, jeanne cummings, gender in iowa? >> no, it is not gender. michele bachmann has slipped in polls across the country, so this is not an iowa thing. michele bachmann got in the race, did a really good job in june to debate, her debut, and a lot of people said all right, i will give her a book to take part of the problem with the bachmann campaign is that her message never went further than that. she came in, she was going to repeal obamacare, she hit all

the right now it's, and then she just kept hitting the same notes. when a fresh face like rick perry entered the race in august, the people figured they had consumed as much bachmann and took a look at perry. she was never able to solidify that support she got early. now we see that her campaign is unraveling as well. this week we saw two high- profile members of her iowa campaign machinery, which is all she has left -- she has nothing going on in new hampshire -- both of them quit, one of them defecting to ron paul. she is in real trouble right now. >> ron paul, colby king, is the antithesis of what has been the republican orthodoxy, a muscular, even interventionist foreign policy, military policy. he asks why we are still in korea what we were there when he was in high school and he is 76 years old. >> going back to bachmann, she

has been very effective in the last couple of weeks, particularly in debates against mitt romney. she bit into him like a pit bull -- i'm sorry, newt gingrich -- and wouldn't let him go. likewise, with ron paul, she correctly calls him a very dangerous candidate with his foreign policy and his views towards iran and their ability to have nuclear weapons. she of all the member is is probably the best equipped from a foreign policy standpoint to talk about these issues in the middle east because of her membership on the intelligence committee. >> evan, i think is fair to say that if ron paul had said what he said on foreign policy a few years ago, he would have been booed out of the room. this time, whether it is a battle fatigue, wore fatigue, there is receptivity to those

remarks. >> there is an isolationist streak, but hanging over this is iran. if iran does develop a nuclear weapon, and the israelis go after eight and a close the strait of hormuz, ron paul or any isolationist is going to the irrelevant. the action will be back in the middle east. romney picked up on this. he made a comment that ron paul does not care if iran has a nuclear weapon, i do. it does matter. >> what is happening is that the iranians themselves are a dancing at the moment of truth, because they are now holding maneuvers to close the strait of hormuz as a reaction not to any israeli attack, or an american attack, but as a reaction to the fact that we are going to impose sanctions on the central bank and the europeans are about to impose a boycott. they are threatening acts which would be against international law. the u.s. navy would certainly

keep the strait open and we could have at the beginning of a war, without our intending it, with iran to doing a bluff that was actually called. >> on that optimistic note, let's go to mirror balls. they are testing confetti in times square for new year's eve. we will test our panelists' insight. what was the most significant political event of 2011, colby king? >> the fight over raising the debt limit, the ability of the republicans to connect that to budget cuts, and obama's inability to negotiate through that maelstrom. he came out as a much weaker person, and the congress came out is a much weaker institutions. >> jeanne cummings? >> twofer.

rick perry going blank in the third or fourth debate he was in was a huge moment from which he has yet to recover. secondly, the story that we had at bloomberg news, the $1.6 million that newt gingrich receive from freddie mac, has had an influence on the race. >> bonus to jeanne cummings and bloomberg. evan thomas? >> the fact that both parties are talking about entitlement cuts. now, they did not do or cut anything, so it was at that in a sense, but the fact that the political bodies talking about cutting entitlement programs is momentous. >> charles krauthammer? >>, maintaining his strength through a bad economy and the shellacking in the last -- obama mckenney his strength to a bad economy and the shellacking at the last election. it began at the beginning of the

year with the speech in tucson where he made himself the father of the nation for a night, and the end of the year, when he completes be outmaneuvered the republicans on the deal with the payroll tax cut. he stayed a lot higher than he should be in popularity. >> now, a little pressure. the republican ticket, 2012. >> romney-rubio. >> same. >> sounds good to me. >> i will tell you -- romney and rob portman of ohio. tune in next week. vo:geico, committed to providing service to

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