captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions it's a long night at the iowa caucuses now reporting in iowa with indemnity romney in a virtual tie. ron paul is a close third. then it's newt gingrich back in fourth. with michele bachmann. >> so judy, what are you hearing tonight from people down there

about how close this is. it's such a tight race? >> well everybody had]çcd+j?z p, not everybody but many people had predicted that this was going to be a tight race. no one had predicted it was together to be this tightly bunched with the three of them. and now we're seeing very tight request almost 90 percent -- with almost 90% of the precept of the vote counted. very tight between rick santorum, the former senator from pennsylvania and mitt romney the former governor of massachusetts. ron paul is still hanging in there with almost 22% of the vote. but you have to say the three of them are considered so close that it could end up anywhere between now and when they end up the counting. what is clear from these r xso far is that the other three candidates who are far back in the numbers are going to end up with a pretty tough night. that's newt gingrich, governor rick perry and michele bachmann. perry -- beginning wich rich

with 13%, perry about 10% and michele bachmann about 5%. not a particularly promising night for them but we're still watching the numbers come in. >> one of the things i find most interesting about this, judy how we have very clearly two tears now. among those top three with 90% of the vote this we're talking about less than 100,000 voters, caucus goers tonight combining those three top candidates. and then some distance behind them are the three bottom candidates, two of whom say they're not going to be to new hampshire, straight ahead to south carolina and try to survive, if they do;n/w that. and the third, rick perry, and michele bachmann are going to south carolina. but third newt gingrich saying he's going to put on his boxing gloves and go after mitt rule knee. it looks like with mitt romney, rick santorum and ron mal ron pl duking it out there at the top is something like a grudge

match. >> all the conversation about iowa may not pause determine who the winner is it does play a role. materiamichele bachmann is goino south carolina line and you quoted newt gingrich saying he's still in the fight. this has to be a blow to their campaigns and when they're going to havesome momentum coming outf here. gwen, one other point i want to make is for all the attention on these caucuses, for all the media coverage, i think one would have thought that the tissueouturnout this year wouldp better than 2008 when it wasfsh5 under 120,000 iowans who turned out for the republicanyeqmnñ ca. far fewer than turned out for the democrat caucuses. but they had a 120,000, it was a record turnout. this year's turnout looks to be, if not much lower, certainly not much greater than what they had four years ago.

and i think, we have to scratch our heads and wonder what is going on in the minds of these voters. did they just not think it was worth turning out and casting their vote. >> among those who did turn out, we're talking, i mean this time four years ago we had already declared the winners, both barack obama and mike huckabee. now we're on the cusp of 11:00 eastern time some hours after the caucus began and we still don't know the outcome. i'm going to let you go and gett this as we stand by here in washington. >> gwen thanks, we're going to turn now to newshour regulars, david brooks and mark shields. of course that's mark shields syndicated columnness david brooks columnnes columnist for w york times." mark when you look at these numbers that have santorum and romney bunched so closely at the top and ron paul right on their

heels. >> it says among other things that they had a great weekend. that's the way they called it going into the final days. much to the surprise. they caught the santorum surge. but the point you were making in your conversation with gwen is the salient, judy and that is rick perry and newt gingrich together, together probably scraped together to get maybe as many votes as ron paul and fewer votes than rick santorum. so they have to be staring into their hold card tonight. it's a long long time from the 3rd of january to the 21st in south carolina and the world's going to turn many times. the toughest decircumstance is newt gingrich. me has new gingrich newb?does hd say no more mr. nice guy. calling mitt romney a liar and just go scorch to earth for the

next week. if so that could certainly change the dynamic of this race. >> david what do these numbers say to you and particularly i'm interested in what happened to mitt romney. he got this% of th in 24% of thd mike hum be who had 37 percent pemplets hiand yet he's runningn one would assume to iowa republicans. >> demography is destiny. what wewwn%ó saw four years agon the clinton/obama race, there were more educated people obama did well. none of the campaigns really changed that basic dynamic. i think we're seeing something similar here. we've got a establishment wing of the republican party if you will and that's 24%, 25%. romney's been locked in that range almost everywhere forever. he's locked in that range tonight. you've got a libertarian wing with probably a little inflated

here in iowa, paul doing reasonably well in third and then you got a social conservative wing. so the common view is this is great for romney because he's got these two other candidates who are probably not going to go to the distance. but the bad news for romney he can't crash out of his wing to get votes from the other wings. when you go to south carolina if perry or gingrich or bachman drop out there are more conservatives that romney can't apparently reach so. these danger ahead for romney. this is in general a negative night for him. pretty good night for barack obama, if you can see anything that there's going to be a long republican race this will be probably good for the democrat. >> judy, i just want to say. >> sure. >> excuse me. now just -- >> go ahead. >> i'm saying winning is coming in first. mitt romney does win here and there isn't an upset or upheaval and obviously we saw that in

2008 after barack obama rode out of here and hillary clinton came back in new hampshire. if you put it together back to back sick tree victories in newe and iowa these a formidable candidate. the candidate for the potential for the national candidacy, they're not seriously wounded here in iowa. if anything, new hampshire is moresaãsy hospitable ground fore kind of libertarianism that ron paul represents. rather than that which santorum represents. i don't know if -- santorum had an incredible performance by him and turn out. no question about it. i don't mean to pave the way. i'm not sure where his campaign goes from here.

>> david, what is clarified coming out of iowa? we don't know of course the final results i'm looking down, i don't see any later numbers than what we saw just a few minutes ago with 24%, 25% shared by romney and santorum. what is clarified if the results are pretty much like what we see right now. >> i think it's a valuable exercise. we don't have a clear winner but we do know who has been tested. rick perry -- let me read you some numbers. the amount of dollars spent per vote. rick santorum spent $1.65 per vote. mitt romney spent $116, and rick perry spent -- these are not the super packs. they're just not working for them. the same is true for newt gingrich. this is a test of people. we've seen the frantic energy,

the last final days some people like mittdisciplined and pretty, some people are not. >> we're going to come back to the two of you david brooks and mark shields in a few minutes but for right now let's go back to washington and to gwen. >> thanks judy. congressman ron paul speaking to some of his supporters in the courtyard in iowa. >> jay mentioned one of three tickets out which is obviously true. and one of two that can actually run a national campaign and raise the money. but there's nobody else to have people like you working hard and enthusiastic and believe in something. [cheers and applause] >> here with me is the annuity hours political editor and editor of the rothberg political report. very tight night, very tight race. we see maybe mitt romney edging ahead but just a couple hundred votes we're seeing as a margin. stu, what are you taking there

it are. >> i think i'm going to disagree with david brooks. probably something i shouldn't do. he referred to this as a negative night for romney. if we had said six months ago that romney was either going to win iowa or finish second in a squeak behind rick santorum and ahead of ron paul we'd say that sounds like a right good night for mitt romney. it is true he continues to have a ceiling problem in the republican party and he's gotje. because conservatives will start dropping out of this race and that vote won't be divided. he's got to get some of that. at this point we clearly have a three-person race and we have some wild cards. what kind campaign does newt gingrich run over the next week or two. when he looks at these numbers and talks to people, does he decide that he still wants to engage in the if fist cuffs the says he does. right now we have the two tiers and we know the first three in the top tier are. >> now that we have the beryling

of the votes in and we still don't know who the winner is and the losers are, let's fake a look at the map and -- take a look at the map dispiend out where the votesrowh f o from, wo met expectations and who didn't. >> one interesting thing is recall kneyromnewh is all over . no all of of these are completed counties. what's interesting is those two orange counties there in the southern portion of the state. rick perry won t those counti. that's taylor county andio unn country. at s's uurprising given he's coming in fifth here and gingrich certainly all over the map as well. then there are six countiesur where there are none happening yet. of thosetes in and o o 3t&s. one that remn roey won sty on the wesrn part of the state. this numbers aregooing ta contingue to just edge her andn there. i will point out inichele bachmann's homeo t wn of wau,terliewn all of rlose presis have been counted and bachman only captured 262 votes in her

home town where she grew up. ron paul won that county. >> how about in a county like aims county. we say ron paul r won and that'u where i satate univertya is. did he do really well in university town. >> he did much better with younger voters than the other candidates did which we were sort of expecting. he got a lot of first-time quaw cusquaw -- caucus goers. ig#nzvk fascinated by the clip e listened to because he took a shot at rick santorum saying i'm the one of the three candidates, i'm the one that can run a national campaign. that's suggesting that santorum wasn't able to really raise the money or havehe has. >> david brooks just+how much m. one way of looking at it is he made a good investment and got a lot of votes. the other is he doesn't have more money on the bank. >> mall will focus his attention on santorum instead of romney which again means perhaps it was a better night for romney. >> do we have any sense what the

issues are once we drove these caucus voters. they didn't come out strongly and enthusiastically for any one person. romney doesn't look like he's going to crack that 25% ceiling at least not in iowa. >> the entrance paul asked about the most important issue and combined budget deficit. economy in general was number one. and romney did very well there. the budget deficit was number two. ron paul did well. and a very distantébfgs third wo santorum did very well among those people. finally, just a very few people identified healthcare which was interesting if you consider how healthcare -- >> the obamacare -- >> it was in the last couple years. so it looks like 9 voter the voe focusing on the economy but depends on what their focus is. is it broadly on jobs and the economy or on the budget deficit. those caucus attendees are dividing between paul and romney on those two issues. >> republicans weren't the only ones caucusing tonight.

there were actually democrats out casting their votes for their incumbent president. they were not being quiet about this, the president was out there speaking about them. >> he's using an organizing tool to say we still have a lot of support, iowa is after all a swing state in the general election. it was a live telecast to some of his supporters. a little bit of choreographed moments from the campaign where they had him take questions and he basically told them it's obvious that the republicans do have a lot of enthusiasm right now. it's going to be a big battle. i really hope you guys are geared up. it's sort of that reprized fire up ready to go method. >> one thing for sure it's a big battle within the republican party coming out of iowa tonight obviously with the democrats as well. we'll go basket to judy now who has a guest in des moines. >> thanks gwen. i'm here with debbie wasserman schultz, congress woman from the state of florida. beshe is the chairman of the

democratic national committee. what brings you to des moines? >> well, we thought it was important that we demonstrate the dramatic contrast that exists between the direction that president obama has been taking with this country standing up and fighting for the middle class and working families and beginning to get this economy turned personal. the entire republican field which is embrace extreme and embrace the tea party and fake back the republican mom sees has brought usz&:;2ceconomic disast. >> every one of these republican candidates has been saying he or she would be a better president than barack obama and they talk about the economy. they talk about the fact that so many americans feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. how does the president begin to chip away at that perception which the republicans just relentlessly hammered out. >> try as they might to create that deception is it seems that most voters aren't buying that argument. that's why in iowa, for example, there isn't a single republican

candidate that would beat the president at this point in any moll head to head. that's because iowa voters, american voters know that president obama has been standing up and fighting for them and has brought us from the jobs when he took office now 22 months of private sector jobs has begun to turn things around. the affordable care act and the war in iraq. the american automobile industry. they know president obama has delivered and he's been fighting for them. >> what's your take on these results tonight? we're watching them come in almost 90% of the vote in. very tightly. at this point it's practically a tie between mitt romney and rick santorum with ron paul close behind. whatst that say to you? >> well if you're mitt romney you have to be pretty devastated that someone like him who is outspent rick santorum 50 to 1 ended up with just, so far just a handful more votes than rick

santorum had at this point. the romney vote is alive and well here and will be alive and well after tonight's caucus. and it's pretty clear given that they haven't gotten any better turnout, in fact they're likely to have less of a turn out than they did in the caucus four years ago. if there were enthusiasm or a hunger to go after president obama, it wasn't reflected in their turnout tonight. >> at the same time you've got the three, you're right, the three wings, parts of the republican party were not able to agree on a scanne capped can. i've been talking to people and there's pretty fierce feelings about the president some who say they proat videoedvoted for brw. how do you get to those people who won't give it another look. >> we have a dramatic contest

whether it's the person on the other side or president obama. the republicans for president want to end medicare as we know it. want to change social security so they can privatize it, allow seniors to invest in the stock market. that wouldn't have worked out so well for the seniors preserving the safety net for the last few years. they all want to make sure she can focus our tax policy on millionaires and billion years instead of like president obama has in the middle class and working families. there is such a dramatic contrast it will be very clear on election day if we want to continue to move in the direction president obama has been taking us for the middle class and working families that he will be re-elected. >> can the president run on his record on the economy. >> i believe he absolutely can because he took an economy that was on the precipice of disaster because of republican policies and began to turn things around. now we have a long way to go but we are now no longer declining. we have an unemployment rate that is dropping. we've got steady private sector job growth and things are

beginning to improve. the american people understand that president obama is fighting for everybody to have an opportunity to have a piece of the american dream for everyone to be able to essentially be treated fairly. the republicans want to keep their wind at the back for the wealthiest americans. >> debly wasserman schultz who is the chairperson of the democratic national committee. thank you very much for coming to talk with us. >> any time, thank you. >> gwen we heard a democratic voice tonight. back to you. >> thank you, judy. boy we're back here with stuart and christina. the last numbers we're seeing are the top two finishers rick santorum and mit romney separated by 13 votes. that's with more than 90% of the vote in. thoothis is crazy christina. >> this is not what we expected. annuitnewt gingrich spoke in ioa

saying this is the beginning of the campaign. sometimes we might laugh at that. we all remember what happened in 2008 with the democrats, everybody thought that would be over after new hampshire and certainly it kept going. >> yes. what do you think about this incredibly tight race? >> i don't know what to think. i'm speechless. i'm speechless. you know, i think we, the candidates who did not do well are going to have to take 48 hours to reassess. and i think romney would want everybody to stay in the ce. i think that romney looking out, looking forward has the advantage of the breadth of the campaign, the depth of the campaign and the financial resources but he has a problem he's unable to broaden his appeal. one thing that's interesting if you look at the next three contests, new hampshire, south carolina and florida, the rest of the month, all three of them are going to be losing half their delegates because they're holding contests outside of the

window established by the republican national committee. but as i once pointed out to you, itself does not nearly matter as much as a sense of inevitability, momentum and the person who established himself as likely republican null knee. >> i don't sense any momentum for any of these candidates, do you. >> if there was more than one ticket out of iowa. there isn't seem that. >> if the race goes on long enough then the dell gates do matter again as we saw in the contest four years ago. it's an interesting race where i think all the insiders will say romney has everything going for him. and yet other people will see yes but he hasn't gone anywhere yet. >> looter stu we'l all right stk to judy. >> thank you, gwen. i'll bring back in mark shields and david brooks with us from iowa public television. david, we've just been hearing the conversation about who has é2qú um.is there such a thing thoughs coming out of iowa with the opposite of momentum?

>> well, michele bachmann's got that. whatever it is. it's no mean momentum i guess yu would call it. one thing i would like to you a dress the blood feud about whether there was a good night for perry. he has a ceiling problem -- romney. he has the ceiling problem. the question is whether it's good weakness or bad weakness. it's good weakness if his policies are too moderate for the party which will be good for independentents after assuming you get the nomination. it's back weakness in it's not about possibility but the personality. people are not warming to him. that would be for independents or conservatives. we'll find out what kind of ceiling it is. is it the kind that will benefit in the fall or is it not. >> mark, do you have a thought on that, on what's behindor beneath this kind of response that mitt romney was able to get in this state that he campaigned

so hard in four years ago and here tend campaign hard again in 2012. >> well, in fairness to mitt romney, he only spent 18 days in iowa this time. i mean, there was nothing compared to his effort here four years ago. and if a week is a lifetime in politics and four years is a long time. i'm not minimizing the fact the republicans do like candidates who have run before. witnessed the nomination of bob dole in 1996, some 16 years after it first run. but i do think that romney cannot be dismissed in the sense that he's coming out of iowa with two opponents trailing him or competing with him who nobody really regarded as serious national candidates. i mean, the fact that it is not perry expls no and is not gingra real plus for romney at this point. i think the real question is going to be for the republicans, how do they deal with ron paul

if in fact he does do well in new hampshire again and has two back to back and shows he has a constituency to raise money and mit romney i think should be so far by not going after ron paul and others have. rick santorum certainly has and will because you don't want ron paul to run the third party candidate. so i do think that romney is null in as bad shape as some wise and thoughtful people. >> very quickly to you david. 20 seconds. what do we look for coming out of eye was. all eyes on new hampshire, south carolina, both, beyond? >> yes, the only thing i would say i assume a week or so that mall anmall andmall anpauland af wurntdz.

they might go on. >> we'll hear more from you later this week. david brooks and mark shields, thank you both for joining us. and that wraps up our special coverage of the iowa cause kussmentsz i'm jud --caucuses. i'm use judy woodruff. gwen. >> you can check out our interactive map all night for the final results plus we'll post videos of all the candidate speeches. all that and more you'll find on our website newshour dot pbs.org. thank you and good night.

. >> rose: funding for charlie rose was provided by the llowing. captioning sponsored by rose communications >> additional funding provided by these funers.

funders. and by bloomberg. a provider of multimedia news and informion services worldwide. tonight the special edition of charlie rose, live analysis of the iowa caucus. >> rose: welcome to our coverage of the iowa caucuses at the time of this taping 11:00 p.m. eastern tonight tonight's results are too close to call. mitt romney and rk santorum tied for first place, ron paul is a cle third. whoever emerges as the winner this could be onof the closest contests in iowan recent memory, newt gingrich and rick santorum battling for fourth and fifth place, michellbachmann appears to be last, hunt man did not compete this evening, there are many questions the candidates will have to answer, for rom any the front runner why can't he close the deal with

voters? for santorum can he emerge as a conservative anti-romney, for paul, what are his long-term prospects? for gingrich and perry, can they change theirame in new hampshire and south carolina which vote next? and for bachmann, how long can she ng on. >> joining me from december rs moins is halperin. >> and al hunt, a washington editor in charge of bloomberg election coverage here in new york is rich lowry editor of the "national review" and joe klein, he is the columnist for time magazine i am pleased to have each of them this evening, so we go first to iowa. mark halperin, tell me, i want the answers to four questions, who are the winners and losers? which seems to be clear, what happened? what does it mean for each of them and who does what now? so let's just beginith an overview of what happened this evening. >> well, we don't know the final result and i think it is pretty clear now that the winner, the numerical winner will be either

rick santorum forum or mitt romney, more likely based on the vote as we talked at this moment, that santorum winds or we have a dead heat, the winner clearly is -- the two bi bigg winners are santorum and romney. >> santorum has a chance to be the long awaited alternative to mitt romney, he has a long of challenges to live up to that task but he does have the potential he will have to raise money and build an organization and define his message ande is going to have to contrast himself more with mitt romney, mitt romney believes as they can beat santorum pretty handilyne on one and the two candidates they fear the most, who they thought had a theoretical possibility of beating them, newt gingrich and the rick perry, on the other handthe other reason romney is a winner is i don't think either rick perry or newt gingrich will get out of this race which means even if michele bachmann does romney goes into iowa and new hampshire and south carolina as the only establishment candidate

with three more conservative candidates to try to divide up, most likely will divide up the vote and could win south carolina with theame kind of percentage or even a lower one than he got, than he got a victory or second place in iowa. >> albert hunt, welcome. >> hey, charles. i agree with part of what mark said but i vehemently disagree when he said mitt romney is a winner, he is not, mark, they thought they would win iowa and totally convinced of that and he got a smaller percentage of t vote against a demonstrably weaker field than he did four years ago. he is going to be the nominee, almost certainly but i think this was a very weak showing on his part, doubt ry much that santorum ca become the -- a viable alternative candida, every time somebod becomes the anti-romney they then have the spotlight focused on them and we find there are all kinds of defects, it is not a very strong field, i think the same thing is

likely to happen to rick santorum. i was with john huntsman and i was with him because he is the only candidate in new hampshire and he had a line when he was asked what message would you give to those people in iowa today? he said welcome to new hampshire, who cares? and i think that really is the bottom line of what happened in iowa. >> rose: so gingrich will go into new hampshire. >> bitter and mad. >> bitter and mad and ready to take on mitt romney, can that hurt romney, is is romney vulnerable to anything gingrich can throw at him he has not yet heard. >> if you are asking me, charlie, i think, in fact, if you look at the last month or two, romney has escaped a great deal of criticism and attack, 45 percent of the ads in the state of iowa over the last month were negative gingrich ads, ireally is remarkable and clearly took a toll. i think romney will be a target of santorum, he will be a targe of newt for sure, he will be a

target of huntsman and that is saturday night sunday morning debate, i think mitch is going to get, they think they are in great shape and can't lose and even going to south carolina for a y and a half, i have never seen a new hampshire candidate do that before. this state has a funny way of not liking people who are foreordained orr daind to be the win sores certainly he is going, he is in a commanding position but i don't think -- i think he could have some trouble in the next six days. >> they may go to barack obama for some lessons on that. >> yes, yes. or george w. bush. >> charlie, one thing we didn't learn anything new. a weak front runner with a divided field that is unclear is going to produce anyone who is really a viable alternative. and i think there are two ways to look at romney's number tonight and we have seen it reflected in both mark and al's communities comments, on the one hand you can compare it to '08 and a flat line with that or a little worse. on thether hand, he didn't run the same kind of campaign he did

in iowa in '08 where he really banked everything on iowa. he was there constantly, he was leading most of the time until towards the end when he was over taken by huckabee, and this was -- he laid some groundwork for it but it was more an opportunistic kind of play at the end, so i think they have to be pretty happy with where they are coming out and one big ing. >> rose: could still win this thing? >> correct. so one big thing we learned that is really important. >> rose: i mean in the state of iowa. >> the big thing we learned that is really important to romney is that perry and gingrich were not as formidable as we thought. perry fundamentally irreparably harmed himself in the debates and newt gingrich was hurt by the ads but also has been hurt by his horrific performance over the last two weeks or so, when he surged and came back there are just three things he had to do in terms of his own conduct as a predicate for everything

else, don't seem grandiose, don't be erratic and don't get rattled and he is 0 for 3 and seems to be determined to continue to be 0 for 3 going into new hampshire. >> rose: can -- is the genius of what happened to rick santorum form in all the time there, is that he put together the huckabee coalition, evangelicals and others? >> yes, the evangelicals -- >> rose: this season. >> the evangelical turnout held up pretty close to what it was in '08, not quite 60, but close, and didn't get huckabee's number which was 40 or above, he got about 30. but was still good, he was rewarded by being there a long time, traveling almost as much as joe klein in the state of iowa, and -- >> far more, far more than me. >> and benefitted from being the last mantanding. and i will say this about him. he is -- he knows more and is more formidable i think than other iowa surprises like pat

buchanan who wasn't an officeholder, mike huckabee who was an officeholder but really didn't know much about national issues, bu now we will see how he performs when he really is on the big stage. >> rose: so before you come in with your overview, tell me what is going to haen to rick santorum between now and next tuesday? >> well, between now and next tuesday, he is going to start. >> rose: raising a lot of money. >> on the internet. >> rose: and a lo of people coming to to him that he didn't expect to be there. >> and of the candidates in the top tier he is only one who has room for growth as we have seen romney can't seen to get above one quarter of the republican electorate, and so you have the perry voters who are sympathetic to santorum, you have michele bachmann voters who are sympathetic to santorum and many of the newt voters and that is like nearly one-third of the vote tonight so a lot of that could go to santor, depending on how he behaves himself. now, he also has a newt gingrich problem, he does tend to say

thing that are embarrassing from time to time. you kno he talked about throwing money at black people, you know, the other day in sioux city. you know, he once claimed that the sexual scandal in t catholic church broke out in boston because of the liberal values in boston. i mean, these are silly things to say. but one thing you can say about santorum is that he is an extremist but someone who is a mainstream extremist, he is someone who comes out of the congress and has a base of knowledge, he also really lks his walk. she an honorable man who sometimes saysishonorable things, but the biggest point to be madabout this, about this caucus is that four years ago the republicans were completely demoralized by george w. bush. and about 120,000 peopl turned

out. now, four years later, they are all excited and ramped up to run against barack obama, who is the anti-christ, and 120,000 people show up. they don't like this field. and of that 120,000, i would venture to say it was probably fewer republicans than last time, because ron paul brought in a lot of independents. >> rose: mark, is it going to be either santorum or mitt romney now? >> one of those two is going to be the nominee of the republican party? >> no. i think -- i don't count on newt gingrich of john huntsman at this point, because if romney comes out of here weak and if al is right he has another sumable in new hampshire is party is going to look closely at alternatives to romney, the conservative movement has not been able to settle on a candidate, it is still the best thing romney has going for him as a weak front runner one of the weakest front runners in either parties in the modern e.r.a. all of these candidates in the race through florida or

at least south carolina but i think, i think at ispoint, santorum does have the second best chance, but i don't think he has much of a better chance, all thing considered than gingrich and we will have zero see about huntsman he has to perform in new hampshire, if he does then i think he would be right thereupon with the other two. >> rose: a lot has been made of the momentum that rick santorum form has and i think it was george h.w. bush who coined the turn the big mo coming out of iowa. can that momentum make a difference for him in new hampshire, al? >> yeah, of course it can, but i tell you what is different in those earlier days, even if the george w days and certainly certainly the gary hart days, it took place because that dominated everything, the big mo, and now -- i am certain without any data that the vast majority opeople who turned out in that iowa caucus today don't really know much about rick santorum form, he was as someone said earlier the last man standing they will know a

lot more about him in the next four or five days and i think it is a real question how he will withstand that, i am not sure he is going to prove as genuine as joe suggested, one thing i totally agree with joe on i think it is stunning only 120,000 people turned out. last time the democrats had two 50,000 people turn out for a caucus, the republicans this time said they are more energized than ever than they were last time, registration has gone up, there is no democratic contest and for them to only equal what they turned outlast time, it raises questions at least in that state about whether that enthusiasm everyone has been talking about i really there. >> rose: go ahead, joe. >> there is a secret weapon that rick santorum has in new hampshire, and that is that he is a roman catholic and there are an awful lot of conservative roman catholics in that state, and so i wouldn't be surprised on saturday night to hear rick santorum say, as a roman catholic i believe, you know, or

put up ads to that effect between now and then, because al is right, they don't know very much about him. >> the more ethnic and more social conservatives, that vote is there for him to go get. i think there are couple of vulnerabilities with santorum, one is he engaged in sort of 3:00 a.m. dorm room style discourse on hot button social issues which helped him make a radioactive figure in pennsylvan and lead to that devastating loss. >> 18-point loss. the other thing i think will be more potentially cut more with the republican electorate is they will come after him on earmarks and on his association with the buscher are a republican consensus in washington. he was one of the original compassion conservatives. >>ose: right. >> so-called, and that is not a brand of conservativism that is in vogue with republicans at the moment. >> what about ron paul? >> well, i mean, i think if he ends up with a fifth of the vote

it said a lot about the republican party and the mood of the party and not just republicans but independents in some states upcoming, in caucuses and primaries they can participate, i don't tnk he showed a capacity here to, despite some trimming of his sails in the last few days to reach beyond the people who currently support him. i have been surprised at how little effort the other candidates have made to try too diagnose what the doctor is doing that is working and trying to do opt him and appropriate some of his message, but i think he will be a forth gathering delegates on proportional rules for quite some time, i can't imagine him getting out of the race and i would be surprised if we didn't sethe candidates going forward and doing a better job of reaching out. >> if i could say quickly about santorum, i think he is more temperamentally suited to take the attacks that will come from mitt romney's campaign very shortly than sor some o the other people like perry and gingrich that were virtually eliminated by those attacks but there is a lot coming and he

does have a temper and i think understaffed and underfinanced and very difficult for him to fight back when those attacks star >> he is pbably exhausted because he has been working so hard too. >> rose: al, what about perry and the money he has and look at the music and say it is not my time? >> i think he will probably stay in at least through south carolina, maybe through florida, but he is yesterday. there is no way he can come back from those devastating setbacks of a few months ago. i have always hesitate to disagree with mark halperin because he always reminds me when i am wrong but i can't see any scenario by which newt gingrich comes -- you have done that twice tonight, watch out. the. >> rose: and you were in new hampshire. what, mk? >> i can't see anyway that newt gingrich -- >> rose: mark? >> how do you know where he is in south carolina? there hasablen't been any good polling there. >> i just think newt gingrich and i'm sorry, he had his moment and it was negative ads to be

sure, but there was a case to be made, and as richard, someone says he acquitted himself so poorly he tends not to do well when will is pressure. i think newt gingrich is history, and perry is history, and so is michele bachmann. >> your timing is perfect i think newt gingrich is going to the podium in iowa as we speak let's take a look and what he says. >> it is about jobs and the economy. we know that americans demand candidates with ideas and solutions to rebuild the america we love. [ apause ] there is only one reagan ite conservative in in election, and we just punched his ticket for new hampshire. applause ] ..

>> well, thank you, and i want to thank linda the majority leader in the house and greg my former colleague in the congress who really all summer held this together, when really it could have fallen apart. i want to thank everybody who worked all fall, particularly during the avalanche of negative ads, we want to hang the people of iowa, all through being drowned in negativity, everywhere we went, people were positive, they were receptive and willing to ask questions, they would listen, and they really wanted to get to the truth rather than the latest 30 second distortion and it really gave us a feeling that this process does work. i am delighted to be here tonight, and i think that we are at the beginning of an extraordinarily important campaign. a. applause ] the ultimate goal

of this campaign has to be to replace barack obama and get america back on the right track. bulet's be clear. one of the things that became obvious in the last few weeks in iowa is that there will be a great debate in the republican party before we are prepared to have a great debate with barack obama. and i think it is very important to understand that. and i want to take just a minute and congratulate a good fend of ours, somebody whose family we admire is rick santorum, he waged a great, positive campaign. and i served with rick, we had a great relationship over the years, and i admire the courage, the discipline, the way he

focused and i also admire how positive he was. i wish i could say that for all of the candidates. but here is the key thing to ask. it is not just about beating obama asmportant as that is. it is about what do we need to do as a country to get back on the right tra? and that is bigger than just replacing one person in the white house. that is fixing the congress. fixing the bureaucracy, fixing the courts, resetting the culture, getting the judges to understand that they operate within the constitution, not above it. there are tremendous steps we have to take and we he are to restabsh the work ethic and recognize we want to reward work, not redistribution, that we want to reward paychecks, not food stamps, and this is going to be a very important national conversation, but it is not just about here at home. we all have to understand, this will be a major debate with congressman paul, who had a very good night and i congratulate

him having done very well. the fact is, his views on foreign policy, i think are stunningly dangerous for the survival of the united states. and i think it is a very simple question, which i would be glad in the next debate to ask congressman paul, if you have a terroriswho is prepared to put a bomb and wear it as a vest, and walk into a grocery store or a mall or a bus and blow themselves up as long as they can kill you, why would you think that if they could get access to a nuclear weapon they wouldn't use it? and iranian nuclear weapon is one of the mostrightening things we have to confront for the future of every young person up here, and everyone out there, if they are going to live in safety they have to live in the world in which there is no iranian nuclear weapon, period.

>> so -- so there you are. that is part of what newt gingrich is sing, summarize where you think he is going with this. first of all he likes santorum. >> this is one very angry dude right now. i mean, you know, newt gingrich at this moment is a kamikaze airplane headed for the ss romney on saturday night, he just wants to take romney apart. and. >> rose: he is going to praise everybody but romney, but paul -- >> three times in the first four sentences he talked about the negative ads that romney, you know, womped him with over the last months, some of the most devastating ads that havei seen. but i think that newt has the capacity here to hurt romney more than romney thinks he can be hurt. i do not think, i disagree with mark, i don't think he has the capacity to be the mom knee.

because once -- >> rose: you don't think newt does. >> i don't think newt does, because once you start going off into this anger and negativity mode, it becomes very much harder for you to sell yourself as a positive politician. i think mark once said -- >> it is a major paradox there, when the positive candidate wants to riphe face-off of mitt romney, and this is one of the problems, he has had the last two weeks, he made his message about ads, right? that is what he snt the top of his remarks talking about. then he pot to his message which actually might sell but he is obsessed with this attack against him and he also really can't get out of this mode of being a pundit, we saw it a day or two ago and he commented on his own campaign. i don't think i am going to win. that is something you say when you are an analyst, it is not something you say wh you are a candidate and of course of course he a had to immediately reverse off one of his precinct captains saying we are work are

for you, but charlie, one step back -- >> rose: go ahead. >> i think reading up on margaret thatcher because the movie just came out and if you look at her, she had two sets of qualities, one, she was a principled as a desert monk, her rhetoric was excoriating and she had a great urgency about saving her country, that is the first set of qualities, experience, knowledge and great discipline. and i think wh we have seen in the republican electorate, they are attracted to people who have some version of that first set of qualities and when they realize they don't have the second set of qualities, they backed off them, so that's why we have seen cain, perry and newt rise and fall. >> rose: is that why the republican establishment most wants to see romney get the nomination? >> i think that is where eventually perhaps the republican electorate will work itself around to saying, you know what? we are going to settle for someone who has foremost this second set of qualities, and is weaker on the first set, that kind of urgency

and principle. >> rose: mark, what do you think romney will say to conservatives he hasn't already said now? is there anything else he can say? go ahead. >> that i am going on the nominee, that i am electable and that i have been endorsed by some conservatives and the i predict he will be endorsed by more after this result, i think the conservative governor of iowa will endorse him, if i could say because i have such respect for al and joe and i want to be clear, i don't think we disagree all that much, i think the reason gingrich still has a chance and some way the best chance i can see him winning some states, unlikely i thought before this result romney was overwhelmingly likely to be the nominee, i think that is the case more so whatever the final act is here but i think gingrich could win south carolina, it is very hard for me to see a state in which john huntsman or the rick santorum actually weats rom beats romney and eventually you have to beat him in a state. >> romy has been a mess, he

has tons of flaws but tough enough and smart enough and a series of debate this is month where he excelled. rough this weekend, one ends at 11:00 p.m., the next one starts at 9:00 a.m., i propose they debate all night on telethonhannel. >> rose: so these debates, al dash. >> well, charlie, let me run through quickly the candidates in new hampshire, because it is interesting. bachmann and perry won't be a factor, they will show up in the debate and that is all. >> i think that is sort of where he is now, he is not going to be a factor in the nomination, but he is going to get more votes than he got last time so when you calculate, he is there. john huntsman, who is about 12, 13 percent in the polls here, i think has the capacity to double that, he may not, he gets those mccain minded independents type voters here. mitt romney has to win here and he probably has to win fairly impressively. he has been in the 40s if he

goes down into the 20s, high 20s i think that is a terrible thing. the most interesting contrast is, the man chess search union leader, joe klein and i are the only ones to remember the days of william rowe. >> and it was an incredible force in the state under lowe and still has a lot of influence among those, we talked earlier about the conservativethnicks up here, i think joe mcquaid the editor probably made a huge mistake in endorsing newt gingrich, santorum would have been a more natural candidate. may not have been apparent at the time, it willbe interesting to see how that plays out over e next five or six days. if the union leader really goes all after gingrich which i am not sure they wilbecause i just think it is not there for him, that would hurt santorum a little bi if on t other hand they play it neutral santorum does va the capacity to get in the 20s here, the i think. >> i will disagree with al on one point, i think ron paul is going to continue to be a major factor in this race because you now have proportional voting.

>> i do too, joe. >> mitt romney has to get 51 percent of the vote between here and the convention if he wants to be the nominee. we haven't seen him go above 25 yet anywhere. so coming out of sou carolina, i imagine you are going to have a romney, you are going have an anti-romney and you are going to have ron paul, and then we will see whether romney can do it. >> rose: mark, do we know more about what the results look like this evening as more precinct or more caucuses are reporting in? >> .. >> the votes come in a percentage at a time, romney and santorum have gone back and, back and forth, separated by fewer than 1,000 votes. >> based on the reporting i have done, while i have no have not n talking, they are going to have are close l is not a whole lot of vote out in places that will shift dramatically, i have talked to both campaigns and both are cautiously optimistic that they can win t neither is

claiming based on their analysis of where the votes are that they will for sure, that is unusual, usually i find campaigns whethe they a being honest or not, suggest th they think they are going to win, both campaigns say they can win but have no confidence that they will. >> rose: any surprises here in this iowa results other than the surge for santorum in the last two weeks? >> the other biggest surprise. >> one of astonishment is the turnout factor. >> thats is not higher? >> yes. and also ron paul, he really did a version for years, conservatives have complained ron paul has gone into the cpac this event in washington where there is a straw poll and ruin the straw poll, quote unquote by bringing in all of his own support whores don't belong there. this is basically what hdid to e iowa caucuses, if you look at the entrance polls, where the -- in '08, something about 90 percent of the caucus goers who were republicans which you would expect, this year it is more like three quarts and among those independents ron paul just