>> rose: welcome to the program, we begin this evening with syria, day 2, and dennis ross. >> if he thinks that the balance is fundamentally against him, then he is going to -- he is going to leave. the question is, you have to realize right now as you put it this is day 2, yesterday, he inteernlsed a shock, a profound shock. the brain center of his regime, of those who are responsible for running his security, either were killed or wounded, and now the shock effect as it wear off he then has to sit back and think, where am i? what is going to happen to me now. >> rose: also this evening, egypt and the future of the arab spring, throughout the middle east with david kirkpatrick. new york times bureau chief in

cairo. >> among the people who think about how to write a constitution for a new republic rule number one is get the civilians in control. because when the military is controlling the government, that gives them a lot of different ways to influence the writing of the new constitution and that could have deleterious impacts down the road. it is clear in this case the military wants to be in charge when the constitution is written, probably because they want to protect themselves. they want to protect their privileges, they want to protect themselves from criminal prosecution, paragraphs for past corruption or other misdeeds. >> rose: finally this evening, mexico where they have a new president recently elected, we talk about the future of that country and also narcoterrorism with randal c. archibold of "the new york times", william finnegan of the new yorker magazine and ioan grillo, author of el narco, inside mexico tease criminal ininsurgency. >> every year, they make about $30 billion as they send drugs to american consumers. over ten years we are talking

more than a quarter of a trillion dollars that's why these organizations have got so terrifying, it has been pumped full of money again and again,. >> rose: syria, egypt, the arab spring, and mexico when we with continue. >> funding for charlie rose was provided by the following.

>> rose: additional funding provided by these funders. and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide. captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> rose: we continue our look at the events in syria on day 2, with dennis ross, he has had long experience in the middle east, has been at the top level of negotiations and also a participant of the national security council and at the state department and we want to begin, he is now the counselor at the institute for near east policy with this question, dennis, thank you for joining us, nice to be with you, thank you. >> suppose you are at the top

levels of government, what questions are you asking on day 2 about the events in syria? >> well, i would probably ask the following questions. number one, are we seeing anything change in terms of status of the chemical and biological weapons stocks. number 2, are we seeing any signs that the make-up of the security forces themselves are beginning to change. are we seeing some disruptions in what looks like the chain of command? number 3, i am going to ask, are we seeing increasing moves around the country, for example, are we seeing some signs of the military around the country maybe withdrawing from places where it has been? again because you see the kind of stability of the leadership somehow in question. so those are the three questions i would start with. and i would be focused not only on that but focused as well on is there an opportunity now to try to accelerate the departure

of assad is there an opportunity to be reaching out to those around him, whom i realize this is a time to get the transition moving. >> rose: would you assume at this moment that the russians are in touch with assad and there is a dialogue going on? >> yes. and i think the real question is, even though the russians vetoed the security council resolution today, the question is, are the russians themselves as confident as they were before that assad's staying power is as strong as it was previously? are the russians themselves beginning to think about are there alternates to assad they need to start reaching out to. >> would you also assume he is not going to simply to use an expression that perhaps is inappropriate, go down in flames? >> i do not believe that is who he is. this guy is not going to man the barricades. he is not going to go underground and not find him in a drainage ditch the way you did with qaddafi, that's not the way he is.

if he thinks the balance is fundamentally against him, then he is going to leave. the question is, you have to realize right now as you put it, this is day 2, yesterday he experience add shock, a profound shock, the brain center of his regime, of those who are responsible for running his security, either were killed or wounded, and now the shock effect as it wears off, he then has to sit back and think, where am i? what is going to happen to me now? now, he is bound to still have some people around him who are going to say, you are the key to being able to sustain the -- you are the symbol of it. but the question is, is there somebody else talking to him and does that therefore have an effect on what he is thinking? he has been living in a world of his own and lives in a bubble. the question is, can somebody punpuncture that bubble? >> rose: would you assume somebody from outside had a role in what happened yesterday? >> the short answer is i don't know. my guess is that it was somebody

from the inside, and that is what has to shake him up more than anything else. this was presumably in his mind the one invulnerable part of the regime, how could somebody penetrate that and what does it mean about who else he can trust? and suddenly in a regime that is based on coercion, based on a sense of conspiracy, based on us versus he them mentality suddenly ifñi you can't count on the us then the question is, what does he do? >> rose: the groups that are in opposition have been coming out and having conversations with the range of people and they have representatives around the world and europe, andçldñi but how much do we really know about them and how much power each holds in a competition among them? >> it is very hard to give you an answer that anyone certainly i can have a high degree of confidence in. you have people who are on the outside, who are obviously capable of articulating something but you don't know how

representative they are. you have people on the inside from an opposition that is highly localized, because it is highly localized, these local coordination councils, it is really almost town and city oriented and the question is going to be, can they coalesce and when they speak what kinds of followings do they have? and i think right now, you know, if i were to divide the opposition i would divide it into certain broad categories. those who are operating from the outside, those who are operating from the inside, militarily against the regime in a kind of localized fashion, and those who are maybe coming in from the outside and who are engaging in terrorist acts, i don't think they represent the opposition, but they represent an element of the opposition that the opposition itself if it is going to succeed is going to have to suppress at some point, they have no interest in doing it now because all those who are fighting the regime have a certain common bond, but i think

the real issue is, are there those who we believe can begin to create a mobilization of support around a focal point? are there those who have sufficient credibility on the outside they can then take part in what could become a political transition. as i said, no political transition is going to begin as long as assad is there. that's the problem. >> rose: what does it mean for iran and hezbollah? >> let me divide it into different parts. number one, for syria, the longer he is there, the worse it gets because the ability to try to put something together becomes more and more difficult because it is not just the level of violence goes up, it is that is central institutions of the state will break down. the sectarian divided self will maybe become so deep it is unbridgeable. you may see increasing pulses toward partition in the state, the impulse toward bloodletting and retribution will go up, not down, so the ability to hold syria together as a country is

much more threatened the longer he is there, the sooner he leaves the easier to put together a transition, it doesn't mean it is easy but easier. now what i just said also relates i think to the iranians, for iran, syria has been the one constant in the arab world, the one ally they have had. under bashar's father, they were also an ally during the iran iraq war they were the only arab ally, syrians have been the conduit for providing support to hezbollah, it changed under bashar from his father, because under bashar, they have actually given weapons, their own weapons directly under his father, it was only allowing iranians weapons to go to them. it is a strategic loss for iran if bashar goes, it is a strategic loss for hezbollah, and the truth is that hezbollah runs the risk of being much more cut off within lebanon itself without a guaranteed supply from the outside.

>> rose: i want you to shift gears now to iran and this attack that took place in bulgaria. >> yes. >> what is going on? >> i think that the united states is saying israel, we are with you, you know. this is -- this kind of terrorist terrorism is simply intolerable and we are with you and support you. and, you know, it is not -- i don't think the united states is saying to israel you should be cautious in terms of what you. do i just don't think that is the message right now. i think israel for its own part will make its own judgment based on a larger calculation that is going to guide it. in the first instance israel has to determine for sure who is responsible forñiçzrçó this. is it the iranians who have been threatening and have beenqto car against different israeli targets around the world and largely have been failing, whether it hazerbaijan or indiaa bomb that went off in india that wounded somebody and had a failed effort in bangkok, there

have been a lot of differentñiñi efforts by the iranians around the globe so first things first determine if it was the iranians was it hezbollah? iran and hezbollah together? i think this is the 18th anniversary of blowing up the jewish community center in argentinaçói] and so y the first instance you have to think pretty hard there is a hezbollah connection here. very interesting thatñrçó necesy rolla secretary and leader of the hezbollah yesterday gave a speech inçóñ%i which he bemoanee consequences of the killing of the key syrian security officials because of the role they played with hezbollah then he immediately launched into how .. hezbollah can surprise israer if israel does anything against hezbollah. now, that suggests that he was anticipating that israel might be prepared to do something against hezbollah and in his own way he was trying to suggest that his in easy has more means to deal with what the israelis

might do than the israelis think. i think that is more brave talk than anythingñi else but the reality he thinks israel may do something against hezbollah, i don't think the israelis do anything until they satisfy themselves they know who is responsible. i no at the prime minister has said he believes that it is iran and hezbollah but i suspect that they are probably taking a very close look at everything they know about this before they make a judgment and then think about what their choices are and the choices will relate to what does israel need to do to enhance its deterrent? that people need to understand when you kill israelis there is a consequence and how does it relate to other strategic interests israel has right now vis-a-vis iran and the nuclear issue and the like. >> rose: going back to syria for one quick question, finally, how much coordination has there been, i mean, clearly the people opposing assad have been getting arms from outside, some suggest from turkey, some suggest from saudi arabia, some suggest from qatar, i don't know any of those are true or not true, but

clearly they are more effective than we thought they might be at an earlier time. >> i think that is true. and i think they are probably getting more material than has been the case before, but i think the more telling thing is that they are able to reach parts of the regime orw3 effectively than has been the case before. now this speaks to greater organization, better intelligence, better communication, and that, that may be less a function of the kind of material they are betting from the outside and more a function of them congealing more effectively as an opposition. the fact is, i am at the washington institution for near east policy and we have a number of analyst whose keep a very close watch on the organization of the syrian free army and one of the things that has been interesting is to see the increasing number of organized battalions that now exist that can be identified. so it may be it is not just a question of materials that they are getting from the outside, it

may be more a function of their more effectiveness in terms of how they operate and to carry out particular attacks which is much a function of organization and intelligence and information and leadership as it is anything else and that could again speak more to what happens on the political front if you see greater coherence even in terms of those who are carrying out the military actions. >> dennis ross, thank you as always for joining us this evening. >> my pleasure. >> rose: we look tonight at egypt more than a year has passed since the ouster of hoz any mubarek, in that time the future of the arab nation has remained in question, in may egyptian citizens participated in the first democratic election in the country's history, mohammed morsi, a long time member of the muslim brotherhood was declared the winner, but the government transition has been marred by longstanding feud between islamist party and the egyptian military, secretary of state hillary clinton met with both morsi and military leaders

in cairo last week to emphasize u.s. help in a democratic transition i am pleased to have david kirkpatrick here, i thank you because with we want to focus on egypt, you and i got to know each other when i was in cairo inner the we are square, where is egypt at this moment .. there is quite a bit of uncertainty as you say about the military and about elected president mohammed morsi, i mean, it would not be an exaggeration to say that egypt today has two heads of state, and no one really knows who is running the country. there is the elected president, morsi and on the eve of his election, just as they were about to start counting the votes the military issued a decree that deprived him of almost all of his power, and so the real power remains in the hands of the generals, and it appears that they are determined to continue to hold on to the

essential state apparatus until a constitution is written, until they can lay the ground work for egypt's future. >> rose: and who will write the constitution? >> who will write the as soo constitution, that's a very good question, right now the islamist dominated parliament reached an agreement with a variety of other more secular forces to put together a panel of people who are hard at work writing the constitution. will they if tote finish? we don't know. the courts are considering a challenge to the structure of that body, the courts who remain the old courts appointed by president mubarek and hostile to the new islamist powers, so it is possible they will cast aside that panel and a new one will be picked by the military. so that remains to be seen. but, you know, among the people who think about how to write a constitution for a new republic, rule number one is, get the civilians in control. because when the military is controlling the government, that gives them a lot of different ways to influence the writing of the new constitution, and that

could have deleterious impacts down the road. it is clear in this case the military wants to be in charge when the constitution is written. probably because they want to protect themselves, they want to protect their privileges, they want to protect themselves from criminal prosecution, perhaps for past corruption or other misdeeds, and they probably want to retain some sort of a voice in egypt's future like the turkish military did after their country's revolution. >> rose: so where is hosni mubarek and what is his health and what has happened in those trials to both him and his sons? >> you know, you are asking a lot of good questions today. mr. mubarek has apparently returned to military hospital, so the alarms raised recently by the state media and others that he was on death's door or even, according to some reports, actually clinically dead, were exaggerated. consideringably exaggerated. i think he is doing fine. he is old and he is not in the health he once was but the

verdict of the medical establishment there is that he can go back to prison and that is where he remains. >> rose: is it like house arrest or is it -- >> no he is in a real prison, prison, you know, he is in the same prison where he used to lock up many of the leaders of the muslim brotherhood who are now egypt's government. >> rose: so in the cell and all the rest? >> yes. >> rose: and his two sons who were on trial? >> his two sons are on a new trial. they are on trial for -- they were acquitted in the original trial of mr. mubarek and his sons and on a huh trial for stock manipulation. >> rose: so the first trial had to do with what actions were taken during the revolution? >> yes. and there were some past corruption charges that were kicked out because essentially the statute of limitations had passed. >> rose: so they are awaiting new trial? >> they are await waiting new trial, yes. >> rose: now to the government, what do we know about what morsi's intentions are? >> you know, that is -- the big question the or egypt's future,

and the problem is, a few months ago i would have said, well look here is what the muslim brotherhood says and i have no reason to disbelieve them. what they say is we are concerned first and foremost with setting up a constitutional government, rotation of power, free democratic elections and fixing the economy, and if those are your starting points, then you are basically going to end up with a pretty tolerant pluralistic democracy, if you want the kind of western support you need for the economy you talking about a tolerant, pleural-lific western democracy, .. they are sounding all the right themes about protecting the rights of egypt's christian minority, of women, of individuals, but hovering over all of that is some questions that the muslim brotherhood may yet be more complicated than it seems. you know, during the course of the presidential election, the brotherhood started out saying all of these things i just described, then they found themselves in a pretty tight race against some other islamists i think

unexpectedly they found themselves challenged for the right to say what islamic governance should mean in egypt and during that pays, they shifted back to an older kind of politics using slogans like islam islam is the solution, talking more expliciting about islamic law and there have been some things that you just -- you wonder what their -- where they are really going because they have broken a few promises, they said we are not going to take more than a third of the parliament and took half, they said we are not going to run a presidential candidate they did and won so, you know, there are some caveats, but that is -- that is the stated direction, and there is nothing really to impeach that at this point. >> rose: and the judiciary remains independent? >> you know, it is another good question. he wript is a fun at this place because the independent you dish area has been kind of a civil religion, under the mubarek years that was the kind of -- the cradle of people's hopes for

the future, was the faith that they would have in an independent judiciary there would be a rule of law, unlike some other countries like libya or even syria, i mean there was a real, belief in the idea of the rule of law all along, even through the autocracy in egypt and yet at the same time when they meet their individual judges, they are very cynical about them because they are by and large or substantially a food number of them are politicized, mubarek cronies, appointees of the mubarek regime put in to protect the mubarek regime and broadly, culturally the legal establishment has a fear of the islamists, which puts them in tension with the democratic in egypt right now. >> rose: yes. it is an ill notion that believes in free elections one time. there is also this. the notion of whether there is some sense that we want to show that we can govern. >> yeah, i in i that is right. they have been preparing a long time and, you know,, the thing about the muslim brotherhood

that i find a lot of americans don't appreciate is that it is a middle class movement, it is a movement of businessmen and professionals. their top bureau, their board of directors so to speak, they are not clerics, they are lawyers and doctors and men of science with advanced degrees, mohammed morsi the new president studied engineering at the university of southern california. >> rose: right. >> their supreme guy i believe is a veterinarian. >> rose: what kind of role do they want to play in the world community? >> there is a profound sense that they are the natural leader of the arab world and the muslim world and they have lost that. >> rose: right. >> they fell astray in the mubarek era and want it back. you know, they want to show -- they want to show the world a new way, much as, you know, the 2 miss i can't is a much smaller country but their islamists are really convinced that they are not just changing tear own country but changing the islamist world. >> rose: do you say to your readers and to my audience that, you know, islamists means

different things in different countries? >> i say they mean different things even in the same country. >> rose: yes. >> i think the interesting debate right now is not secular versus islamist. the secular pokes are going to be the minority in the middle east, in a democratic middle east the interesting debate is what does islam pick governance mean? and you are seeing it played out again and again, most notably in the recent presidential election where you had three different, very strong presidential candidates running under the banner, banner of islamic governance and all meant rad economy different things. >> rose: what should the united states do as it watched this sort of arab spring change governments and make -- bring to power people that they might have been fearful of coming to power but now they have no choice but to deal with? >> in egypt, the american government has worked very briskly to develop a rapport with the muslim brotherhood a

lot of congressmen coming in and state officials to meet with the top leaders, some of them i talked to afterwards and they have come away very impressed, republican congressmen have said to me, you know, these muslim brotherhood guys they are talking about religion in governance but not so much different than our christian coalition and by the way they are keen on free market we republicans can work with that, and i think that is the -- that is what the u.s. is doing. i think they have apprehended in a democratic egypt that is who you are going to have to talk to. >> rose: right. >> and so far, it looks like they are the people u.s. can work with, with hillary clinton's most recent visit there seemed to me to be a little hedging of the bets, she arrived in the middle of this power struggle between the islamist and the military council, i wondering, i think some people in the state department were encouraging her to speak out strongly on behalf of the elected civilian. she did not do that.

you know, and my sense, she really said, you know, we are for democracy, let's see how it goes, but in a very loose way she said, you know, we leave it up to the egyptians and i think, i take away from that two things. i think the administration correctly am prehendz that the u.s. is not very popular, so whoever they hug is going to be hurt by that. >> rose: right. >> but i also think that more cynically they are waiting to see who really wins. what is the military's role. >> rose: then the question becomes, and what about the new powers in the region? what about, a, iran and how they see their future? and what about turkey? which has emerged as a power in the region, and what about qatar? >> everything is up for grabs. the whole -- somebody is taking the tablecloth and thrown it in the air and we are still waiting to see how it all shakes out. i mean, i think the diplomatic establishment in egypt who i spent some time with has the idea that they emerge as a regional power, that the regional powers will be egypt,

turkey, and iran, and that seems not so wrong. i think, you know, saudi arabia is going to be kind of an anchor, a conservative side pushing as best they can in a conservative direction around the region. and but the interesting thing is, these new islamist powers, this world that goes there turkey and the moderate islamicish government ther there tunisia and the very moderate islamist government there, whatever the brotherhood becomes and stretches over to qatar, is there a kind of a new moderate islamist voice that is going to act in concert in the region and have an impact and what is that going to look like? that is the real question. >> rose: want the relationship of all of these governments to israel? because israel has had relationships with ought democrats? >> auto democrats? >> before the revolution, the

nobel prize winning diplomat .. he was prophetic about the revolution in many ways and he used to say, the only lasting peace is between two democracies, so israel may like dealing with mubarek, but that is always going to be an unstable peace because his people are not with him. the only way you can have a long-term sustainable peace is make peace with the egyptian people through elected democrats. so if you want to take a positive outlook, right now, we have elected officials who are saying we want to support the treaty,, you know,, will there been more tensions between those two governments? for sure. but it is not -- .. it doesn't look like it is going to be open war pair my time soon because the treaty has worked out, between israel and egypt worked out pretty well for both sides, egypt is the weaker country so to be honest, they actually stand to gain more from the peace. >> rose: fascinating. thank you, david, great to see you. >> thank you. i hope i didn't run on too long.

>> rose: you were great. >> mexico went to the polls earlier this month and elected its new real estate, he is a member of the pri which ruled mexico uh uninterrupted from 2. >> it is a referendum on felipe calderon's war on drugs, the war reportedly claimed 55,000 lives since cal calderon came to power will the new president be able to bring the violence under control and be able to shake off allegations of corruption and how will his victory affect regs between mexico and the united states? joining me now randal c. archibold, he is "the new york times" bureau chief for mexico, central america and the caribbean, william finnegan staff writer of the new yorker magazine and ioan grillo, author of el narco, inside mexico's criminal insurgency and i am glad to have all of them here at this table. so tell me what this new president stands for and what he means and is he sort of the face of the pri, and somebody else is calling the shots behind him or

is he the real deal? >> well, there is clearly a lot of debate in mexico over that very question. it is a question of old pre and old pre he is a cipher for the old guard behind him? but a lot of people believe mexico has changed considerably since the 90s the last time the pre held the presidency there is a lot more scrutiny, a lot more freedom of the press, their social media and you saw some of this during the election, when there were allegations of vote buying and irregularities that were reported all over you tube and twitter, so i think pending the new president coming in whether the new or old pre it is certainly a new era in mexico. >> rose: and what happens to calderon? >> that is an open question. there is a lot of rumors as to what his next post would be. he hasn't said anything publicly. mexican presidents lately, one

former president is at yale, president fox has his own center there, so i am sure he will enter the think tank world of some sort, whether in mexico or the united states. >> rose: here is an interview i did in 2011, talking about an issue i want to raise with each of you. roll the tape. >> of course i am talking about felipe, it is absolutely absurd. why? because mexico is a country which is working, and it is a very functional country. we have a vie grant democracy. we have three branches of power, executive, legislative, judicial, we are independent, with each other but beyond that we are able to reach agreement in the congress, like antitrust litigation. we have an educational system with 36 million students attending school every single year. we are -- we have a health system this which we are almost

to reach universal health coverage in mexico. so we will attempt, attend to more than 100 million people with medical services. a goal that is not reached for a lot of countries, including the united states. we have a system in which we have business community, we have an economy growing, five percent, creating more than 800,000 jobs a year. so is that a failed state? not. is mexico a failed state? >> wrong it is a failed state. i think it is true that, you know, it is a country with, where schools are working, electricity is moving, you have got 12 billionaires, a large middle class but there is in mexico an extraordinary criminal threat, something very strange is happening, has happened in mexico in recent years we have to try to understand. now felipe calderon himself is confused about the language to describe this criminal threat, when he first took government he

dressed up in a military uniform, and he said, i will give no quarter to the enemies of the father land, patria he said in spanish and later, no, no it is not really a war here, it is just a criminal let in some neighborhoods. and hillary clinton as well is very confused, the united states is very confused about trying to make sense of what is happening in mexico. hillary clinton first went to mexico as secretary o secretaryd said, it is a problem like the u.s. had in the 19eighties, you know, a few gangs fighting in the ghettos and then she suddenly said oh, my god there are car bombs going off, this is some kind of criminal insurgency, so people are confused but when you look on the ground at the most hard hit communities you see absolutely extraordinary things happening, you see a situation where groups of 50 guys with ak 47s and rpgs can a attack police bases and

military bases day after day, who can leave 49 decapitated bodies on a road. just think about the logistics of capturing, kidnapping 49 people. keeping them hostage. >> rose: random simply to make the case of terrorism. >> in some cases, maybe chosen at random one has been dumping 14 bodies in, maybe part of some code, 14 now how they select those victims, some victims ann, one victim they found was a waiter turning up for his shift, taken off the street, and murdered. but the 49 bodies i mentioned who i went up to cover the story, these 49 victims have not been identified. 49 bodies, and if this happens in the united states, 49 headless bodies dumped on a road, the outcry would be -- and this was in mexico's most developed part of the country, close to the border.

in calderon's administration more than 3,000 policemen and soldiers and judges have been murdered. now, this is an extraordinary threat to government for whatever reason those people were killed. so one, it is not a failed state, as the state with problems that have gone way beyond what we can understand by organized crime. how, people say organized crime, al capone, al capone in his worst massacre killed seven people. in a single massacre in mexico, they killed 72 people. we are talking about low intensity war. >> rose: and why did calderon fail? >> calderon failed for various reasons but the most fundamental reason for his failure was he sent a rotten government apparatus after these cartels. he sent corrupt police, and a very questionable military to

take on these cartels. so what happened? we looked to certain conflict areas, you see hit squads connected to the sinaloa (sp) cartel, hit squads connected to the setas, marines, federal police, state police, local police and they are all like different armed groups fighting each other .. he sent military began to create different massacres with instructions just to bust drugs or arrest people and often ended up committing human rights abuses. >> rose: is this a national security issue for the united states? >> i would say that it is sort of a first order of concern, the stability of mexico. but i don't subscribe to sort of the scare stories about this sort of flood of violence lapping over the border. most of the southwestern border in the united states, the border cities are very safe, very low

crime, but the question of a failed state in mexico is sort of a melodramatic formulation. because you can -- you do have to look at places in mexico, you know, it is a big country. and you can certainly talk about maces, including places near the border, where state capture is a good description of the situation, where people are very well aware that whatever problems, whatever they may be you don't go to the police they can't do anything. >> rose: so what is next? >> well, i think we are going to see if the new president can fulfill the promises he made in this campaign, which include resurrecting the my, which in that clip calderon said it is growing 5.5 percent. it is lower. it is down to four percent. but it is growing. i mean the thing about the mexican economy is the growth is from the lackluster, it is kind of lackluster and allowed them on an international stage to

kind of goat a little bit as europe has spun out of control and brazil is now slowing down, and mexico lo and behold because of various reforms they put in place after their own peso crisis back in the 90s is able to kind of mulled through, but there is a lot of anxiety in mexico over, especially among the young people about jobs. their joblessness is pretty widespread. >> rose: is the fight between cartels or between the government and cartels? >> between both, many sided conflict. you have pot these cartels and the criminal cartels, not just cartels, drug cartels because they are also involved the other crimes, particularly shaking down businesses. for extortion payments but also involved in stealing crude oil. they now say the cartels steal between 1 and 2 billion dollars of crude oil every year. just this past week. >> by breaking into the pipelines. >> they bake break into the pipelines and some of the oil was actually sold in texas in

houston as legitimate oil. oil that has been stolen by drug gangs the zetas, they are selling this oil in houston. now, the story came outlast week where gas stations in seven mexican states complained to say they are being forced to sell oil by these cartels. so you have these cartels, which are like criminal paramilitary political complexes fighting each other and the federal government trying to impose its will and trying to put order on all of these cartels. so a checks war. now when the new president comes in, i don't think he has pot a simple master plan. you know, he said -- he said he wants to reduce the antisocial violence, the collateral that has come out of this conflict and that's a good objective. the objective of calderon was i am going to declare war and destroy the

cartels. which didn't work. he couldn't defeat them. he couldn't eliminate or annihilate cartels. >> rose: because of the corruption that exists within? >> because of the corruption and also because of the nature of these cartels. i mean you take one cartel in michoacan, state, and there, you have this cartel la familia, ververy, very powerful cartel rn by a guy who had written his own bible, the maddest one, now the federal government hit very, very hard this cartel, and they succeeded in killing this guy, we have, on a federal police strike but what happened is, the cartel has carried on because they have like a brand name and an identity beyond their leader. so they just decapitated the cartel and taking out the leader doesn't necessarily work. these organizations are resistant beyond just one powerful warlord.

>> rose: one of the things that the new president said was you can create a new relationship with respect to the united states, did he not? >> well, i think what you are going to -- >> rose: certain code words? >> yes, i think for the most part he is trying to placate washington right now, which as was pointed out in the campaign he saidly focus on the violence that is affecting mexicans, and there were some people in washington who took that as a sign he is not going to be serious about fighting the drug trafficking, which is of course the number one concern for the united states. so he is playing this balancing act of wanting to have strong relations with the u.s., wanting to, wanting to maintain to a certain degree the cooperation with the u.s. drug enforcement -- >> and what do they expect from the united states that they are not get something. >> i think they expect a lot of technical help, they have gotten a fair amount of that through the initiative, helicopters and so forth. i think they expect a lot of the

expertise and intelligence from the united states, but i don't think that they the new president told us as much that they don't want american troops there, they don't want armed federal agents u.s. federal agents doing operations. >> rose: no drones. >> right. they have the drones. they don't have drone strikes. in the and the u.s. was a big supporter of the colombian government as they sort of turned the corner. the model can't really apply to mexico, although the new real estate has been trumpeting his new security advisor, colombian general, retired i guess. >> rose: right. >> who worked closely with the u.s. on plan column, i can't but there is no simple model that i would agree that the answer if you can begin to talk about an answer to the organized crime problem in mexico is not blackhawk helicopters, tha thatt is very much, you know, a sort

of political will and reform, political and the judiciary again in the clip you made president calderon ex-told the judiciary in mexico, you dish area in mexico is a mess, you know. something like 98 percent of serious crime is unpunished in mexico and the dysfunction is very, very deep in law enforcement and the judiciary and that's where you have to begin, i think. and i think, bill hit it on the head. i think the police and court system is really very much in tatters and i think what the new president will find is executing his promise of reducing the violence, you can't do it solely with the federal police. you need -- you need the state police forces, mexico actually has more common in the united states than it has in columbia in that there are 31 states, each one has their own police force and there are local police forces below them. so this very fragmented system, it is very difficult to control

from mexico city. the new president proposed this new sort of paramilitary police force, using elements of the marines, the may industry and army and the federal police to form like a strike force to go into the hard hit rural areas. but i think it doesn't really quite solve the foundational problem that you fundamentally when a crime is committed, the police respond and it looks like an american crime scene with crime tape and people are collecting bullets and -- but there is really nothing beyond that. you don't hear about a trial, you hear about arrests but you never hear whatever happens to those cases, people languish in jail, from is no sort of faith or confidence that there is any accountability so you can commit a crime and more or less get away with it. >> in the end i think i read some survey everybody agrees corruption is the problem? >> yes. organized crime has resources in mexico that absolutely gar the

states basically financially i think underneath this election result i am not the only one who thinks this, there is this kind of hope that is unlikely to be fulfilled that a kind of pre2000, really predemocracy stability might be restored which the cartels flourished, narco traffic was a big part of mexico, but the government was basically seen as being on top of it line the cartels could not cross and -- >> the idea is they may restore that? >> the hold is the police back in power programs my neighborhood, my town can be as safe as it used to be and i don't think the old pre structure of power, that really went town to the street and evolved, involved just about everybody, i don't think that can be recreated and it wasn't

democratic either. >> a good point you said about the money, i think it is fundamental, you know, people make $30 billion by selling drugs to american consumers, over ten years we are talking more than a quarter of a trillion-dollar, that's why these organizations have gotten so terrifying, it is being pumped full of money again and again, now i would say that they should be more work on drug policy reform that is part of a long-term solution, the president elect has said that he is not in favor of legalizing but he is in favor of the debate, now will is a change in rhetoric from before, which the president of guatemala, perez calling for debate. we saw in the summit of the americas. >> rose: and the debate will be legalizing and making drugs available and controlling the process or something else? >> i think the debate starts offer as being the current drug

policies are not working and how can we reduce the harm of these policies, now it may not necessarily -- we can discuss legalizing marijuana there are only programs about heroin can you stop heroin money providing, going to pay for these assassins? paying for these groups destabilizing mexico and doing a lot of harm. there are schemes, for example like methadone schemes, rehab schemes, which can start to reduce the harm of these drugs. but i think a debate to look at the policy to look and say, you know, right now 40 years on the war on drugs but right now we have drugs that are available, we have very destructive drug wars happening in latin america. >> rose: are the mexicans both in the establishment and in general disappointed in the united states and don't feel they get appropriate attention from the united states? >> i think there are a lot of people in mexico who believe

thathat it deserves more attentn than it has gotten. >> rose: and what would be done to improve it beyond the idea of lessening the demand for drugs. >> well, i think it depends on who you tal talk to from mexico there is a assessment assessment it is the u.s. consumption that is driving these traffickers and you need to do something about it. >> rose: that i is that is a huge idea. >> it goes down to what does that mean exactly? people are not taking into account the consumption in mexico which the as was noted the middle class is rising and with that rise in middle class, as everywhere, there is rising consumption within mexico itself. nobody really talks about that. there is this sort of blame the u.s., you know, throw it on their lap, and again, it is, you know, u.s. consumption tha thats the largest amount, but i do think people expect more from the u.s. but mexico is a funny country. they don't want the u.s. to sort of come in and step into

everything either. so it is this phone line that really has to be walked. >> rose: between need and pride? >> this is the latest article you have in the new yorker, this is july 2nd, how did mexico silicon valley become the front line between the cartels? william finnegan reports on corruption, billionaire king pip, 50,000 deaths and a presidential election in the balance. so what is this story? >> mainly reporting from guadalajara mexico's second city, which likes to think of itself as an oasis within the violence and has partly been -- >> rose: immune from the violence? >> yeah. i mean, the local myth has been that a lot of kapos, a lot of kingpins live there and therefore they want it quiet for their families and therefore guadalajara hasn't had serious drug related violence. not really true. there has been quite a lot of stuff over the years, if you spend time looking into local history you think where exactly does this oasis part comes? there are shoot-outs and more

recently it has really crumbled under the pressure from the zetas and they have been pushing west. the guadalajara area has been traditionally controlled by the sinaloa (sp) cartel and the zetas are pushing in and .., you know, they are calling head lesd bodies, piles of headless bodies, last month 26 bodies in the downtown. >> rose: so what question do you most want to uncover? answer? >> i would like to know, i with would like to press fast forward to the end of pena nieto's term and see exactly was the violence reduced and was it reduced in a way in a corrupt way or legitimate way where the institutions, the police and court systems truly built up and truly were functioning. >> rose: can it be done and if if he did it how did he do it? >> these are the really tough long problems that have defied

mexico for years. >> rose: is there some sense that there is a wholesome elements within the pre that says we want to prove that we can be an effective force? >> > for the future of mexico? >> i think -- >> rose: and not fall into the traps that we have easily seen there? >> i think there is a class of sort of young professionals, who want to serve in government but didn't want to serve under a conservative government i think pena nieto has a group of these smart young people around him, the question is, will they have the influence and the say that they did in the campaign and you had to run a campaign, can they run a government? and if some of these young people, many of them american jailed or educated in the early institutions of mexico and abroad, if they can really have a say and a power that would be very interesting to see, and these are the ones who recognize that they have

lost. they have lost two elections, and so there is this sense that six years from now, we may not -- it is not going to be the old days where we -- that we picked the candidate and everything was rigged and we won. >> rose: right. >> now there are elections and we need to a certain degree have something to present to voters at the end of our term if we want to stay in power. >> rose: it is a tough assignment. >> very good. >> rose: where is your pass, where does your gas haitian come from? is it just a good story. >> it is a great story. and as i looked at a f different aspects of it, i don't live in mexico like these guys. >> rose: you are in mexico city? >> mexico city. i sort of drop in to milk zero can, mitch zero can, you can sort of see .. boy there is a certain microcosm of one part of the problem in mexico, and tijuana was a place where there was some successful law enforcement and actually reducing public violence and the

police chief was getting a lot of credit so i went to look at that in some detail. and it it was sort of disillusioning but interesting. it is not far away and sort of presses upon us, i grew up in southern california so i was in mexico as a kid, i loved the country, actually, i mean, i would go there on my vacations still. >> rose: still? >> still. a lot of these tourist places, cancun, oaxaca really haven't been hit by the violence and even yourself you can go to mexico city and spend a week there and not realize that this country is in a serious -- >> rose: yes. >> even monterrey i was just there a couple of weeks ago and for the election, i was covering some election stuff there, and i was remarking to my colleagues, you know, if you were blindfolded and dropped into the middle of monterrey, right now and not knowing where you were, you wouldn't have this sense of bullets flying and people being kidnapped and so forth. it is very almost under the radar what is going on.

>> rose: i mean a little bit, pardon me, is like the wild west, isn't it and that is part of what makes itñi a story that makes it a story for movies, makes it a story for -- >> i mean the fascination, i have been in mexico or 11 years, i first arrived at another time, perhaps with the what is caught this the glamor are the massive godfathers who, you know, they are making billions of dollar and they disappear in a puff of smoke. >> rose: get in jail and get out of jail. >> get in and out of jail. i mean, they have private jets and tigers and all of these kind of things but more recently the massacres we have seen, the tragedy really has become a human tragedy of epic proportion, again and again, i go to talk to the mother and families of people wh who have n killed. >> rose: you story of an 18-year-old let off an never seen again. >> this kind of tragic things but i think it is very important hot just to understand mexico and not just for these details

of severed heads, what is happening in mexico is a case model of what could happen in many countries. there are many countries around latin america and around the world with similar conditions, with a lot of alienated people in ghettos and so forth who can be recruited into criminal organizations with money of organized crime and people ready to form militias paramilitary groups and very weak democratic governments, now i arrived in mexico the day before vicente fox took power. >> rose: 2000? >> 2000, sell weigh the end of 71 years of the pre and this great optimism about democracy, the same celebrations we are seeing in egypt or libya, now you are aware of countries around the world of what could happen with these democracies. >> rose: thank you all. pleasure. thank you, charlie, great to see you. thank you. see you again.

captioning sponsored by rose communications captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org >> rose: funding for charlie see has ben provided by the coca-cola company, supporting this program since 2002. and american express. additional funding provided by these funders. and by bloomberg, a providermena ultimemnda news and information services worldwide. beemore,bs