hi, everyone, welcome to "on the money." i'm becky quick. the new year is here but what's ahead for your wallet? will interest rates rise and gas prices stay low? the latest gadgets and new technology, your phone and your home both getting smarter. and could a driverless car be coming your way? it's treatment training, an entrepreneur wanted to get in shape so he hired a navy seal to move in and train him. can he survive around the clock active duty? time to plan that get away so stretch your travel dollars, find your beach or slopes at a bargain. "on the money" starts right now. >> announcer: this is "on the money," your money, your life, your future. now becky quick. 2016 is here and the fed's

we know that we will be electing a new president this year as well. beyond that a lot of unknowns. we have two reporters with a look ahead. john harwood has predictions on the political front but first steve liesman on how he sees the in the year ahead. >> the big question for 2016, how many times will the federal reserve hike interest rates? that depends on inflation, jobs and the economy. inflation should continue to fall towards the beginning of 2016 and then stabilize. assuming oil finds a bottom and the dollar doesn't surge. inflation would then move slowly higher as the year progresses, employment growth will downshift to a more sustainable level between 125,000 and 175,000 jobs per month, more in line with labor force growth. economic growth could shift slightly upwards, more towards 2.5% but not burning up any chart books. all that of suggests the fed will raise three times in 2016 depending on the data.

change in how the stock market reacts to the decline in oil prices. the stock market finally comes to realize that low oil prices are good for the u.s. economy and rallies when prices falling rather than the other way around. few of us who cover national politics can say we haven't been surprised by the 2015 phase of the 2016 presidential gain. when bernie sanders entered the democratic nomination race who expected him to be leading former secretary of state and first lady hillary clinton in new hampshire by the end of the year? when blustery billionaire donald trump entered the republican race who expected him to be dominating the republican field pretty much everywhere? when all the candidates begin laying out their plans for spurring economic growth who expected that national security would be the dominant issue on the eve of the iowa caulk kes? so with lots of humility here are three predictions about 2016. whether she wins or loses in new hampshire hillary clinton will be the democratic nominee. donald trump will not be the republican nominee.

couple of states and the field concentrates that's when donald trump will be vulnerable. and the american economy, middle class wages, not national security, will be the focus of the 2016 campaign by the time we get to election day. november seems a long way off but right now we will get predictions on how these changes will hit your wallet. joining us jared bernstein of the center on budget and policy priorities and the cato institute's president and ceo peter goettler. gentlemen, welcome. jared, i want to start off talking about the federal reserve. we did see the first rate hike. do you think we will see additional hikes in the months to come? >> the federal reserve's rate hike schedule, which is for three to four hikes next year, is almost solely predicated on inflation. i know steve talked about inflation, jobs and growth, they are all in the mix, but if you look at inflation prediction, that's for inflation to revert to form, to start rising much

that. i think they are going to keep missing that in 2016 so i think there will probably be fewer hikes than most others predict. >> peter, what does that mean for consumers who are sitting home who have credit card debt and a mortgage? >> as long as the fed is focused on, as jared said, inflation, economic growth, the employment picture, whether the labor market is tight or not, i'm expecting the economy to be a little bit lackluster. the labor market is not nearly as tight as the employment rate, which suggests because we have had such a dramatic falloff in the labor force participation rate. >> sure. >> so i'm not expecting interest interest rates to get away from us. >> you have an adjustable rate mortgage, would you be concerned enough to move into a fixed rate mortgage? >> i probably would, not because i think rates are necessarily going to get away from the consumer, but fixed rate mortgages are at very attractive levels. i mean, except for kind of late 2012, early 2013, it's the best rates we have ever seen. so hitting that is pretty attractive, i think.

jared, you know that low gas prices have been something that consumers have gotten used to over the course of this year. do you think that that is going to be the rule for 2016 or are you looking for higher prices from here? >> anyone who predicts that the -- they know where oil is going is pulling somewhat of a "fast money" on you, but i do actually take the forecasts that we haven't even quite seen the bottom yet for the price of oil. that's kind of the consensus, and i think that will be the case. i mean, just the supply continues to be really on the upside. now, the price of gas is really remarkable. it is actually lower today than it was ten years ago in nominal terms. >> you heard from john harwood and he said that if he had to make a prediction it would be that trump would not win the republican nomination. he also said that comes with a huge dose of humility and any of the pundits who have been picking this over the last seven or eight months have been wrong. what do you think? >> you have to have a lot of humility when you're talking

think no one expected us to be the situation we are at. i think it's going to be interesting to see. what i characterize as a bit of a tug of war, you know, trump is not seen as a conventional candidate who will have an effective get out the vote effort, a ground game, but he's got such a lead. republicans don't sound like the party of limited government very much, no one is talking about cutting spending, reforming entitlements, et cetera. democrats are not talking about some of the issues we would expect them to stand up on, protecting civil liberties or being a little bit skeptical about the use of american power overseas because i think some of the populous bluster is crowded out, traditional positions that talking about. >> that's a good point. jared, let's talk about one of those issues, tax reform. it's something that both sides agree needs to be tackled. however, we've gotten just about nowhere with that. i wouldn't expect anything to change in an election year, but beyond that what do you think

>> you can't turn around in washington without bumping into a politician who doesn't want to lower the corporate tax rate because our statutory rate is high, but then broaden the base because we have so many loopholes that the rates that corporations typically pay, especially multi-nationals is pretty low. as you said, unlikely to have much happening in 2016, we could see something like that down the road. that depends a lot on who gets elected president. >> jared, peter, thank you for joining us today. >> thank you. now here is a look at what's making news as we head into a new week "on the money." it's no surprise that amazon is number one in sales in e-commerce after the holiday figures have been tallied up. more shocking, the shear scope of its domination. the seattle-based retailer took in $22 billion in sales this year, that was an astounding 26% of all e-commerce sales in 2015 according to npd group, a market research company. that's up from 22% last year.

gyrations and volatility the dow and s&p 500 ended the year close to break even. the holiday shortened week saw stocks fall. some strength in the housing market, the kay schiller home price index saw prices climb slightly in december and slightly higher than expectations. led by "star wars: the force awakens" the u.s. box office closed out a record year, movie ticket sales hit the $11 billion mark. in 2015 for the first time. that breaks the record of $10.9 billion that was set in 2013. up next, we are "on the money." it's a new year, so what's on deck for tech? from virtual reality gaming to driverless cars, we will talk to the experts about the biggest trends you will see this year. and later could you handle a workout led by one of the toughest men on the planet? meet the entrepreneur who hired a navy seal to live with him and train with him for a month. and right now as we head to a break take a look at how the

the consumer electronics show is kicking off on wednesday. that's the annual event that showcases new technologies from auto makers to gaming and everything in between. but what technologies will make the biggest impact for you in the new year and which ones will fade out? joining us right now is jordan crook, she is senior writer at

also is dana wollman, the manager editor at engadget. there is a new amazon entrant into the personal assistant, this is something i guess to compete with sear refrom apple. >> it's meant to compete with a lot of devices, it's a speaker that connects in your home through bluetooth and wifi, allows you to ask about questions, you can ask about the weather and also put orders on your amazon shopping list and place orders through the give vice. you can also control different smart electronics in your home. >> can you show us how she works? >> the command word is alexa. i could say, alexa, tell me the weather. >> right now in new york it's 47 degrees with cloudy skies. >> it's a $179 deaf yies vice device, not very expensive. right now there's a million different connected gadgets you can put into your home on your wrist and they are all speaking through wifi so you have to go

another. devices like this or siri or google now allow you to have a i think isling interface where you can interact with all of these devices. that's going to make or break the industry because people don't want to have to spend 40 minutes getting their home adjusted to the right settings. dana, let's talk about hoverboards, this was definitely the right item for a lot of kids, my kids are asking for them, i think they're cool but i have hear the stories about fires and explosions. >> it really was a hot item. lots of people even in my own facebook feed i saw unboxing these hoverboards. i can see why. i mean, they seem fun to use until you go splat on your back. >> right, or until it blows up. you talk about hot item, there's a hot item. >> right. but i can see why they are appealing. they are indeed a little dangerous. airlines have banned them and videos have gone viral, the latest of mike tyson taking a fall on his back.

handlebars. >> let's talk about driverless cars, we have been hearing they are just in the future. is 2016 the year we actually see driverless cars? >> i think it depends on what you're talking about when you say driverless. if we're talking about getting into the car, lags back and watching a movie on your ipad that's not going to happen in 2016. we are seeing steps towards it, back to when car makers introduced cruise control, the cameras that is viewing from the rear view and giving you a picture. that's learning what the car can do in the future and do that for you. toyota said in 2020 they want the car to take over for you on the highway. the highway is an easier place for the car to see signs and take you from one ramp to an off ramp. tesla has cars that can tell the speed limit on the signs on the road and slow down or speed up. you're going to see incremental steps towards it and there are

the bigger question is will a big tech company win the race or will an auto maker win it. >> dana, what about virtual reality when it comes to gaming? what should we be on the lookout for this year? what are the newest coolest things? >> we saw samsung come out with a virtual reality headset priced at $99 it's not nothing but more affordable than many of the other headsets we've seen. "the new york times" used virtual reality to help tell stories for readers. i think it might not become mainstream exactly, i don't think everyone is going to have virtual reality headset but i think it's going to enter the lexicon for a lot of mainstream people out there. >> thank you both for being here today. up next we are "on the money." entrepreneur jesse itzler wanted a challenge so he hired a navy seal to live with his family, train him and push him to the limit. later, winter getaways,

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risk takers, game to try just about anything. for jesse itzler after co-founding one company he sold to warren buffet and working with another start up he sold to coca-cola coca-cola, jessie hired an accomplished navy seal to move

a month long experiment with improvement. when i spoke with him recently i asked him how he came up with this idea and why he did it. >> like so many of us we want to get better in a different buckets of our life and i really wanted to get better in the physical bucket. i met seal, as he's called in the book, at a 24-hour untra marathon and i was doing it as a relay team and saw him by himself doing the entire race alone. >> wait. when you say 24-hour marathon, running for 24 hours straight. >> yeah. >> you've got teammates you're passing off a baton to and he is passing off the baton to nobody. >> to nobody. >> that's crazy. >> crazy. and the race was self-supported which means you bring all of your own supplies. so we went a little overboard, we had a tent and we had food and masseuses and all of this stuff and he sat by himself alone in a fold up chair with a bottle of water and crackers for 24 hours and i'm like, whatever he has in his mind, i want a

parts of my life and i will be a lot better off. >> i can understand that. the normal response might be to somebody can you train with me full board. >> i cold called him, i googled him and i said i want to come out and meet you. i got on a plane and literally after sitting with him and chatting for a couple of minutes he was so -- he had so much passion and determination and there was a magnetism to him, and i said, i just -- i asked him to live with me. >> did you ask your wife first? >> after. >> oh, boy. >> honey, we're having a guest. yeah, i called sara afterwards, my wife, and i said, i've met this unbelievable guy and i asked him to live with us, so we have a guest. >> you are a forgiving wife, we will give her big props for that. what happened? how did life change? >> the first day he moved in he decided we will do a pull up test, see how many pull-ups i could do. so we went downstairs and i went

he said, rest for 30 seconds and do it again and i got six, he said rest, try it one more time i could barely do three. i said i'm done, i couldn't feel my arms. he said, oh, no, you are not done, we're going to stay here until you do 100. he taught me right on the spot when i thought i was done there's so much more in my reserve tank and that was just something that he did every day. every day he had a saying that if it doesn't suck we don't do it. and it sucked. >> words to live by. >> yeah. >> what do you think the worst thing was that you ever had to do that you weren't sure you could possibly do? >> we did this thing he called the 4-4-48, every four hours he would wake me up, we would run four miles for 48 hours, it's a marathon one day, a marathon the next day but with no sleep. >> that sounds awful awful. those life lessons, are those things that translate beyond your personal life and into your career as well? >> definitely.

getting uncomfortable, being comfortable getting uncomfortable and really pushing your limits and seeing how far you could push your limits. that's something that has just been very rewarding for me. >> would you do this again or are there other life experiences that you're planning to do as a result? >> i'd like this to be a series where i live with interesting people, as long as my wife lets me, as long as she will let me. it's one thing to hear about someone or read a book, but when they come into your life and you can spend time and some of whatever they have, their edge or whatever makes them tic rubs off on to you it's really powerful. >> jessie, thank you so much. >> thank you. up next "on the money," a look at the news for the week ahead. and vacation steals and deals, looking for the best bargain on winter get away? we have the travel tips you don't want to miss. looking for the best

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tomorrow on our show you can go to our website otm.cnbc.com. here are the stories coming up that may impact your money this week. on monday the manufacturing index is released for december. on tuesday auto makers will announce last month's car sales. on wednesday the federal reserve will release minutes from the interest rate meeting. thursday we will get december's chain store sales. on friday we will see how many jobs were added to the economy and where the unemployment rate stands.

the king. elvis presley was born on january 7th, 1935, in tupelo, mississippi. traveling is about to become more expensive, air, hotel and ground transportation prices will increase in the new year as an improving global economy and stronger demand outpaces increases in supply at least that's according to the american express 2016 travel forecast. there are still deals to be had. joining us is teri johnson, she is host the travel-ista tv. she has some recommendations. >> thank you for having me. >> if i'm looking for a travel bargain, where should i believe looking? >> there are really great travel bargains out there. to is that right, there is nor weejen airways and they just launched their direct flights from new york, boston and washington, d.c. to month neek and gaud lup. this is the first time in 20 years that there is an airline sflieg to these destinations. the flights start as low as $79 one way. >> what?

>> so give this a try while you still can while it's still young. >> these deals are only lasting until this april, the end of april. >> what about if i -- i'm concerned about stretching my dollars, what are some of the best ways to do that? >> you can go the all inclusive route, there are really great deals, especially for family vacations. if you were to go to the websites of these resorts and sign up for their newsletter, sign up for their flash deals, you can find some really great specials, but you have to stay pretty active on social media to really find these great deals. >> what about if i'm traveling with kids? >> there are amazing to place toss travel with kids. there's places in florida, you can go to the sand pearl resort in clear water beach, florida, really great things, really focused on the wildlife and eco friendly adventures, you can go to places like costa reek can a that have chocolate rain forest tours. >> tell me that again.

comes from coast can a reek can a. you can find really good adventures for kids that really teach them about the environment, there's tree planting activities, wildlife, volcano hiking all sorts of things for families that have kids that are super, super active. >> what about if i'm looking for something super easy. you mentioned all inclusive before. >> all inclusive is great, also cruising, cruising you can get on board, river cruising especially, fabulous experiences, viking river cruise is a good one, waterways, they have good deals where you can get sometimes two for one, sometimes you can get 50% off of the price, especially if you book inness have a. what happens is these river cruises are going no matter what. >> teri, thank you so much for the hints. >> thank you. that's the show for today. i'm becky quick. thank you so much for joining me. next week the aordable care act is due for its six year check up. bay area costs are rising but is coverage improving? we will check it out.

we're "on the money." keep it right here and we'll see