birthplace of commercial operations so it's kind of one of the oldest areas.> we're off to the east coast where beefing up biosecurity is one producers' defense against the deadly disease. and in john's world... time to go video a video with animal welfare people> now for the market related news, usda's latest crop report sent bearish reactions rippling through the commodity markets this week as the agency raised a few key numbers more than expected. usda raised both the corn and soybean yield by more than a bushel this time. the agency bumping the corn yield to 169 point 3 bushels per acre and soybeans 48 point 3. profarmer editor brian grete says these increases were a bit of a surprise.

on corn and up a little bit on soybeans and also riase it's carryover estimates for corn and soybeans and wheat this month, and instead, usda came with much bigger estimates than anticipated and much bigger increases in carryover for corn soybeans and wheat and the net result now is heavy price pressure after the report. > meanwhile, usda's adjustment to cotton production triggered a bullish reaction. the agency forecasts yield at 782 pounds per acre, which is lower than the previous estimate. that puts total production almost 20 percent below last year's final numbers. the biggest change comes to the u-s orange production, with usda forecasting the smallest crop since the 1940s. usda thinks the all orange crop for the 2015 to 2016 year will drop 14 percent from last year. the biggest cut is to florida's numbers, where the state continues to battle the devestating disease called citrus greening. the most pessimistic long-term scenario comes from a study by the florida department of citrus questioning whether the industry can survive. their forecast

shows production will hit 74 million boxes next year, but worried that number could fall to 27 million by 2026. usda's report this week sent orange juice futures skyrocketing to the highest point in 16 months, with a 16 dollar incrase just this week. it was the opposite reaction in the livestock markets with usda's report triggering limit down moves. usda says beef production is expected to climb nearly 5 percent in 2016...to 24 point 91 billion pounds. that news pushing live cattle futures for december to fresh lows--- down to 128 per hundred tuesday...before seeing a rebound wednesday. meanwhile, the latest sterling profit tracker shows cattle feeding markgins getting even tighter, with feedyard managers starting at losses in excess of 486 dollars per head. turning our attention to south america, planting conditions are improving. recent rains even ending a very serious heat wave in brazil. usda meteorolgist

south american farmers.

improve a little as we head through this week but moderate drought only spotty across the middle of the country. alright let's go day by day as we start the week on monday, it's looking like a wet area already really through the missouri valley starting in texas all the way up into missouri, southeastern iowa. storm system kind of double barrel here coming in. this is going to be the main pocket of energy snow on the northside of that especially higher elevation. rain all the way down southward into southern california at least some areas. and then you can see some scattered showers and storms otherwise. kind of cool in the east but high pressure giving you a decent day. by wedsenday it really comes to together a big wrapped dup storm system over the middle of the country. lots of rain up the mississippi valley into the southwestern great tales area. showers and storms elsewhere. rain showers behind it. next system coming in out west with some rain and mountain snows. and by friday, then, the first system is

mid-atlantic into the florida panhandle. and the second system producing some pretty decent snows it looks like from minnesota down into parts of the northern plains. back in our next half hour with a longer range outlook. thanks, mike. in honor of veterans day this week, we have two veterans on the marketing roundtable with us this week. brian splitt and craig vandyke are in to talk markets after the break.

mentioned it was veteran's day this week, so on the round table we have the marine corps and the army represented. brian split of

markets, give us just a brief background. >> sure, tyne. so i was in the united states marine corps from 1999 to 2004, a water survival instructor, and spent some time in iraq during the initial invasion in 2003. >> and, craig? >> u.s. army from 2006 to 2012. i served with the 82nd airborne in 6 spent 2009 in tal afar, iraq. >> well, thank you both for your service. now, we'll jump into the markets. usda report this week when they raised yields, carryover, a bit of it seemed a bit of a shock, definitely a bearish tone-- a bearish reaction. craig, where do we go from here? >> well, the market's been within a range for four months now. ultimately, there's not a huge incentive to see some bibuying to spur us higher at this point. ultimately, with the numbers we had this week out of the usda, i expect to see a continued sideways choppy trade with small opportunities here and there. the carryouts look

number continues to grow and grow. now, this is the third consecutive year of record wheat crop, record wheat carryout, so ultimately for us to see a big boost in the near term, i think, is going to be a battle. >> brian, to see that soybean yield raised an entire bushel. i mean, percentage-wise that's a big increase. >> right. there was really in the past 20 years only four years where we had more than 2% increase in the yield, and so with a 2.3% increase this year i think that's just really indicative that the late soybeans that we had some concerns about really turned out to be very, very good producing beans. >> so can we just expect, craig, with the next usda report that these yields will continue to get bigger and the carryout may continue to get bigger as well? >> well, historically the usda does tend to raise yields as we move forward into january, so i would expect that to continue to grow. as far as how much, i doubt that we'll see as big a jump as we saw, like brian

said, in the soybean yields moving into january, but, yes. big crops get bigger, and that continues to be the storyline in the yield reports that we've had. and obviously the yield numbers that the usda is coming up with continues to prove that this crop is going to continue to grow. >> brian, when we look at last year, so now until the end of the year we have thanksgiving, you have christmas, you have these holidays coming up. could we see some type of gift like we saw last year? what's your advice now through the remainder of the year? >> sure, so last year we had a little bit of a different setup. the crop was starting to get smaller and demand was getting bigger-- where right now the crop is still getting bigger. the bean demand was increased but corn demand was decreased, so most likely if we're going to see a rally that's worthwhile, it might be from a change of perception in the u.s. dollar. i think the general money flow right now has

been negative, so if there's some profit taking into the end of the year on the dollar, that might be something that brings in some money flow. but it's just hard to get too excited about any major price rallies between now and the end of the year. >> it is. i mean, when we look at the markets-- all the markets-- it just seems like there's a bearish tone, not only inside when we look at the agricultural commodities, but all commodities. why is that, craig? >> well, you've seen the cash flows come out. you've seen funds not be quite as involved. we started to see the downturn towards the beginning of the year and really what ultimately set it off, i think, was the strength in the dollar. you look at the increase that we saw-- 20% jump at the beginning of this year-- and that continues to weigh in on commodities. whether or not some of the supply and demand shifts, the perception of the strong dollar is ultimately weighing in on the weakness we're seeing in the u.s. commodity market. >> brian, do you agree with that? >> i do. you know, the market right now is in anticipation of a rate increase by the fed, and so i think until we get that official announcement that will give traders reason to continue to

buy dips in the dollar. now, overall, the dollar and like craig said the commodity and the grain markets have been more in a sideways range for four months or so. the dollar has as well, and it's getting to the upper tier of that range, so if the dollar can't continue to push higher and we lose a little momentum, then maybe we can revisit the low end of the range there. but i think long term what i'm hoping is that we get the official announcement that the feds are raising rates and historically when we've seen a lorate environment start to transition to where we are seeing a rate increase, we do get the dollar to back off for generally maybe a simonth period of time. and whether it goes back up or down after that might depend on the year, but maybe that provides a little bit of a bright spot of hope for the first and second quarter of 2016 if the dollar does get a little bit of a softer tone and bring some money flow into commodities again. >> all right. well, what happens if the fed does indeed raise rates in december? we'll get their take as well as talk about this cattle market. we

need to discuss that when we come back, so don't go anywhere. receive a free trial of the daily market letter and gain knowledge about current market conditions from the professionals at bower trading. view the markets like never before. go to bowertrading.com. [ break ] welcome back. all right, craig, if the fed does raise rates in december-- which

th they do, what happens to agricultural commodities? >> well, like brian said the fed raising rates, i ultimately think the dollar's going to maybe force the fed^s hands in a way. the problem is the fed raising rates is such a small

quite a bit lower, and will commodities take note? but with such a small increase in interest rate, you know, that tail might take some time for the dollar to actually find a level where it will become more competitive globally in exchange rates to ultimately give guys further boost, maybe in the middle of 2016. maybe further out. we might be looking into the early 2017 because the fed raising rates is going to take time. and they've said it before, we're going to slowly raise it, so while the initial breakoff might support commodities in the near term if the dollar does take effect on that fed rate raise, but whether it be december, whether it be the beginning of next year, it's all up in the air. we've heard the guesses for the past year now when they're going to raise them, and we^ve yet to see anything done yet. >> well, friday, kind of a red day for a lot of commodities, and then we look at oil hitting fresh lows. what's going on, brian? >> well, this all just goes back to the general deflationary atmosphere that we're in right now, so in all commodities you're going to continue to see in a general sense rallies will be sold.

think that anything in the ag sector's going to find a real, meaningful rally unless maybe we get some kind of a weather event to spark up in south america so that will take place, if it does, towards the beginning of 2016. you know, pay attention for some other events that is we usually see in februarmarch time frame, which is going to be maybe some striking in brazil to get a little bit of rally, but for the most part when you look at where commodities are, i think natural gas is 85% off altime highs, crude oil, rbob, heating oil roughly 70%,grains 50 much more bad can it get? there's still some downside, but relative to equity is still close to all might be a relative value play

market saw some big losses this week, so what are all these bearish factors weighing on the market now, and is there anything bullish that could possibly push these prices higher in the near >> well, without a doubt it's been a volatile market. you know, we've seen extreme volatility over the past week, two weeks-- actually the past couple months. dressed weights continue to be record heavy. we've seen a break in beef product. we have seen some movement pick up as beef product starts to move lower, but it's all relative. what's high-- $1.40 cattle, $1.10 cattle? when we initially saw the stock market break, that's kind of when this all began, so i think you're not seeing the funds... you're not seeing the big money stay bullish cattle like we were in '13 and '14. so producers have to be willing to be nimble here. you have to be willing to take advantage and bob and weave with this market because, as we move forward, while we have seen some decent retail demand and potentially moving into the

fourth quarter we could be seeing one of the bigger year-over-year retail beef demands and pork demand that we've seen since about 2004. >> okay. >> so the demand is still there. as we've seen beef demand is inelastic, but at the end of the day it's all relative. what's high? $1.50 cattle, $1.10 cattle, historically these are still high levels. >> brian, we really don't have much time, but this hog market, are we seeing seasonal lows right now? >> we typically should see some kind of a seasonal low. we definitely had a seasonal downturn here recently. it was a very aggressive downturn, maybe more than what we would have liked to have seen, but we should see a seasonal low. last year the best we got was stability. we didn't really get a seasonal rally, so... >> all right. thank you both. when we come back we'll get their closing thoughts. don^t go anywhere. u.s. farm report is brought to you by basf. grow smart with basf and get the most acre after acre season after season. [ break ] welcome back to markets.

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with you. >> i think the biggest thing that livestock producers need to look at now is managing enuser risk, the input side as far as where grain prices are at. manage that upside, but as well as be willing to be nimble. this market is moving. there's a lot of opportunity to take mone market moves, like i said, and add value in a market that is trending lower. >> all right, thank you. brian? >> sure, i think my main message is for grain producers, and when you look at the where the corn and soybean and wheat markets are, for that matter, we are at some very, very good support right now, and we'd like to see that hold. but i think you have to think about what it means to you if these levels are taken out and find a way to protect that. >> thank you both for being here this us with week. we really do appreciate it. please stay us with. john phipps joins us when we come back. u.s. farm report, brought to you by case ih, your cattle bringing in the profits. count on case ih equipment to help you do

vis garding the humane treatment of animals. just this week, the u-s department of agriculture said its reviewing the authenticity of a video from a hormel foods hog supplier in austin minnesota. the video reportedly shows animals being beaten and hogs covered in feces at a slaughterhouse. but as john tells us, improvements are being made across the country, and things could get even better thanks to technology. john. last week i had the privilege to speak to the elite producer business conference - the annual meeting hosted by my colleagues at dairy today. it is always a learning experience for me as dairy is an industry constantly moving forward scientifically as well as continuously updating their business strategies. i was deeply impressed by the efforts the entire industry, from producers to retailers, have undertaken to answer animal welfare concerns from consumers. their concerns for profitability

a lot of time wasted ranting against irrational consumers or complaining about unfair converage by the media. these people were realists. one thing they truly get is the power of video, and the experts i talked to were blunt in their assessment of so-called ag gag laws as a poor defensive tactic. in fact, as technology gets ever-cheaper and smaller, one powerful answer to undercover videos is similar to what law enforcement agencies are pondering: routine, constant self-surveillance. while the debate over body cams for police continues, many like me are reaching the conclusion that the only effective antidote to spy cameras is to make them redundant. if everything is recorded, transparency is no longer an issue. the breakthrough for this idea will be when software engineers can create programs to scan the gigabytes of video rapidly for questionable conduct. i'm

guessing it may already exist in some form at higher security levels, and in time this enormous data-crunching ability should be available for every level of production. this not only provides evidence for the defense, it strongly encourages correct actions in the first place. what we see is a powerful influencer of what we think. it seems to me the plan to counter video with video has a lot of merit. thanks, john. still to come,east coast producers were spared from avian flu outbreaks this fall. but that doesn't mean they aren't preparing for the

unknown. that's our farm journal report after the break..s farm report. welcome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead this weekend. keeping avian flu away. our farm journal report shows us how beefing up biosecurity is paying off. so what's a dollar really worth? that's customer support. baxter black tells us a tale of old blue. and a special tractor tribute put together by an avid viewer. now for the headlines, farmers are seeking more farm loans, but banks say it could be a credit crunch the remainder of the year. the kansas city federal reserve says farm income losses intensified during the

nebraska and the mountain region, showing most of that can be tied to the big cuts in livestock prices. bankers in those areas show the largest downward shifts in years, with live cattle prices dropping 17 percent and feeder cattle 22 percent during the third quarter. bankers also say while farmers are seeking more farm loans, credit availability appears to be declining. this could create challenges for any producer looking for additional financining or debt restructuring towards the end of the year. to the east, the st. louis fed reports farm incomes continue to fall. but so does farmland prices. the bank representing seven midwest and mid-south states shows farmland prices dropped 2 point 6 percent, but cash rents actually rebounded, up less than 1 percent. that's after rents fell last quarter. the bank also says ranchland actually strenthened nearly 5 percent compared to last year. the food and drug adminisration releasing new

standards that require foreign produce farms and importers to verify their products meet u-s food safety standards. . the the rule sets science-based standards for growing, harvesting, packing and storing produce that are intended to be shipped to the u-s. the company that just received approval from usda for its avian flu vaccine is being bought out. ames based harrisvaccines is selling itself to merck and company. the deal is expected to close this year. harrisvaccines says they hope the acquisition will help the vaccine manufacturer expand its technology into other areas, like foot and mouth disease in cattle. harrisvaccines is also the maker of the p-e-d vaccine called i-p-e-d plus. heavy rains and mountain snow hit the pacific northwest this week, an area desperate for long-term drought relief. here's the national weather services's forcast, showing more than 7 inches of rain hitting the

that to the latest drought monitor. all of washington is consumed by some level of drought, with nearly half the state seeing extreme conditions. as for the entire west, drought improved slightly from last week, but more than half the region is still seeing moderate drought or worse. and in california, 45 percent of residents are under the most severe conditions possible. but according to usda meteorologist brad rippey, el nino could help bring relief this year.

south. that's what we've been hearing. what else should we expect the next 90 days? thanks, tyne. i definitely agree with brad. it's a typical el nino pattern to see wetter conditions for southwest, southern plains and even on into the southeast and i would contineu to agree with that. the wamer than normal waters in the northeast pacific may cause some differences in temps than we typically get for a strong el nino so that's something we need to watch as we head into winter. jet stream though for this week you can se a troph coming in cutting off that's going to be a wet system for the middle of the country. by the weekend, then, it's already spreading east a quick shot of cold air coming in behind and that looks interesting for the great lakes as we head for ladder part of the weekend with another troph coming in out west. definitely an active weather pattern. so for my 30 day outlook going above normal for minnesota to alabama and eastward. below normal for southwestern plains and most of the west, as you can see. precipitation over the next 30 days, there it is, above

for california and nevada. below normal up along the canadian border. tyne. delaware poultry producers aaron and johnathon thompson say as the seasons change, there's not much worry thompson say as the seasons change, there's not much worry to tweak their bio- security practices. we haven't had to change anything because we've already had such great existing guidelines. when things happen, you're already prepared and know what to do if that was to come,">32 that's because their operation, locust-lane-hartley , is located within the atlantic

operations. this is basically the birthplace of commercial operations so it's kind of one of the oldest areas. 45 their flyway was spared during the h5n2 avian influenza outbreak that started in 2015, killing over 50 million birds nationwide. but the area dealt with a similar outbreak back in 2004. i believe it's pure luck that it didn't go through last time. luck or not, the two believe their biosecurity is strong and if the virus were to hit, it shouldn't spread as fast as if did last spring. the two brothers have supplied for perdue farmers since 2009. in turn, they apply perdue's bio security best practice standards to their operation. the bio-security is scaled by a number system. level one includes dedicated footwear and vests. level two is similar but dedicated footwear per house. doors are locked and water is sanitized. disinfecting is heightened with level three. that includes cleaning up manure

level three, they don't even encourage you to go to other public places where other poultry producers would be. that's something they ask of you. luckily, we haven't been to level three. we've been to level two," the thompson's say the suppliers and feed truck drivers have their own set of rules they have to follow. what they're responsible for is the order they visit the farms in from youngest to oldest. from uninfected to infect or non-vaccinated to vaccinated 45 > despite the security, there is a worry. there are a lot of man-made ponds, some even 100 feet away from the barns that are home to canadian geese. so we call them residents. if we get some migratory geese coming in and infect the resident geese, then we don't know how long they could be here. 35 for now, they hope their security practices are strong enough to keep their flocks healthy and

i'm betsy jibben thanks betsy. perdue encourages enclosed composting. the thompson's built an enclosed composting building with walls and gates to keep wild birds out. when we come back, john phipps. we continue to talk about the

strength of the u-s dollar and how it's weighing on u-s exports. but what's the dollar really worth? that's this week's customer support with john phipps. don kelly has a simple,

but tricky question: "could you please address the value of the dollar and how it affects us as farmers? also it would be helpful if the value of the dollar could be included in the financial report that appears at the bottom of the screen, so that i can keep track of it." don, email your address - you've earned a mug. our analysists do talk about the value of the dollar, but when you get right down to it, measuring that value is not as easy as it seems. the biggest reason is the dollar is what we use to measure the value of everything else. in fact, it is the global economic yardstick. when we talk about the strength of the dollar for instance the unsaid portion of that phrase is "compared to something". the most widely used

measure of the value of the dollar is the dollar index, often abbreviated as usdx, which is traded on the intercontinental exchange in new york. it is calculated from a weighted basket of currencies as follows: euro - 57.6%; japanese yen - 13.6%; british pound - 11.9%; canadian dollar - 9.1%; swedish krona - 4.2%; and the swiss frank - 3.6%. those numbers represent how much we were trading with each back in 1973 when the index began. here is a chart of the index since then. i have two problems with it, however. first, the composition of the index doesn't come close to our trading picture now. one big omission is the chinese yuan, for example.

china is about to become our biggest trading partner. to compare, here are our biggest trading parners now. that said, the index does follow other measures like the bloomberg dollar index pretty closely. the second problem is more subtle. the index was anchored at 100 on the day it began. while this is logical, there is a psychological message carried with the index as we tend to compare it to 100. it just feels better if it is over 100, for example. perhaps the best way is to always look at a chart instead of the number and concentrate on which direction it is moving, and how fast. next week, i'll look at why this matters to farmers, and indeed all of us. thanks, john. don't go anywhere. baxter black joins

from the eyes of a viewer who's paying tribute to his father-in-law.

ear from baxter black who has a tale about old blue. a retired ohio farmer told me this story. its about the best coon dog he'd ever seen. it was an old blue tick hound that his father had trained. he said he's dad was such an excellent trainer he didn't even have to go hunting with blue, the dog would go by himself. dad would put a high board out on the back porch, a large or a jumbo. and just before dark blue would come out from under the porch, look at the size of the hide board and the next morning there would be a coon to fit lyin on the porch. blue was so well trained and so smart he would chase a racoon around the woods until he

up it and take of the coon. sometimes more than one. then he'd whip out his little more maker knife that he carried on his collar and skin em out. and he'd carry him home in his mouth. the only thing he couldnt do was sharpen his skinning knife. you see, he couldn't hold the knife with his paws because his toenails were so worn donw from running that when he held the knife in his mouth his ears flopped down adn he couldnt see. blue was so proficient with his knife, he would hold it in his teeth. he leaves lift back like a jack ass eating bryers and reach up with one toenail and open that little more maker knife and skin the coon right quick and not have a nick in the hide. one time dad sent away and got blue a male order course on ventrilliquist. he got so good at throwing his voice that the

cacth old blue hunting out of season. but alas they lost old blue due to an unfortunate circumstance. mom always did her ironing out on the back porch. one day dad came home with a brand new ironing board, well they kissed and hugged and caught up and then went in the house completely forgetting about the ironing board left out on the porch. it was left out all night. they never saw old blue again. this is baxter black from out there. when we come back, al pell is here with a tractor shot and edited by a viewer wanting to pay tribute to his father in law. so stay tuned for that special tractor tales

next. tractor tales this week. viewer don walker put together a unique tribute for his father-in-law and was kind enough to share it with us. this 52 massey 44 diesel is a one owner tractor and as you'll see, it's an important part of this ohio family.

silage clear over the top. and not plug it up or stop it. i had it restored a few years ago wanted it restored, he wanted the corn picker so i traded the corn picker for restoring the tractor. it was a good deal because it needed really cleaning and sanding and new paint and it was all stripped down and repainted and brought back here with the decals on it. looked brand new when we had it restored. why it runs just as good as the day we bought it. i was surprised because it hadn't

it back from restoration and i drove it when they delivered it back home and i drove it on the farm and it was just like it was brand new. it just that feeling there, and it was new, it was new. because it was completely redone. it was a surprise and a great feeling to have this tractor back, be able to sit on it and drive it. again, our thanks to don for sending that video in. and this week's church salute goes to the holy name church of marcus, iowa. celebrating 100 years, this

out, with the same structure standing for 100 years. our thanks to fran briggs for sending that in. stay with us, cropwatch is next.

like they've been forced to do this year. while living in the texas panhandle means he can't complain about rain, it's creating a mess, with combines continuously getting stuck, creating big ruts in the fields. jarret says even though the calendar says mid-novermber, there is still a lot of corn and sorghum left in the field to harvest, with portions of the crop suffering from hail damage this fall. and illinois corn

yields may have been a rollercoaster this year, but the popcorn looks pretty good. scott trimble tells us they had a record popcorn crop in heyworth, illinois and the quality was off the charts. after harvest, they put the crop in mini cribs made of pallets. and then the real work begins--their entire winter will consist of shelling, drying and bagging the popcorn. and princeton, minnesota farmer eric minks tells us he finally found what' he's been looking for-- his last row. that's in response to john's touching commentary from a couple weeks ago about the heart-felt meaning behind his last row every year. mike obviously i'm about due. it's pretty obvious. it's getting there. thanksgiving is hte official due date. so while i'm

prepared. so clinton will be standing here for six weeks or so or whatever it takes. yes, so if you could give him a hard time i would appreciate that for all six weeks. (laughter). okay sounds good. for john, al and mike, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone.

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