tv Mad Money NBC December 12, 2015 3:00am-4:00am CST
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friends. i'm just trying to keep you from losing a lot of money. my job isn't just to enterin but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. boy, that was a nasty day. once again, we're back in crazy town. lower oil prices mean a lower stock market. something that is totally counterintuitive because cheap oil is like a tax cut for all of us. but that's not how the stock market views it. hence the dow plunged today. now, to refresh, those big institutions who sell stocks off the falling price of oil are thinking that the lower petroleum goes, the more likely it is we'll have big defaults in the high yield bond market that supercharged these oil companies to begin with. that took on increased urgency today when we learned that a fund manager borrowed redemptions to a high yield fund because this market was too
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prices for the redemptions. this has roiled through this high yield space, as many companies have gigantic amounts of debt. they took on durg the days of easy, cheap credit in the housing days. those days are over. and these junk bond funds, particularly the mutual or open funds, are proving to be disastrous investments. i urged you is to sell the stocks of any companies that are borrowing money to pay their dividends, which is the case of many of the oil companies. now i'm including a must-sell for any mutual fund where you are risking your principal to grab a little extra yield. a must-sell. i've urged you never to reach for yield since the show began. i am reiterating that admonition
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let's go to next week's game plan. first, we'll be on the lookout for more stories about mutual fund redemptions just like we had today. they're going to dominate the headlines, because financial advisors all over the country were calling their clients all day today, urging them to sell junk bond funds so they don't get shut out the way third avenue management. that's why i think monday could be a pretty ugly day. no. i'm a peacenik these days. tuesday we get an analyst meeting from a total cramer fave, 3m. it surely needs a better world economy than it has right now. i keep it in my travel trust, which you can follow along,
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it's paid a nice dividend forever and it's constantly redeeming itself. some stocks you have to take for long term gain. they're not many that i believe in like that. 3m is one of them. the fed is poised to raise rates for the first time in nine years. if it's acmpanied by a statement that says we're ghtening, then we can have a reli rally but if it's artfully worded, you'll see selling, because while employment is indeed robust, oddly enough, pretty much everything else isn't. you know me, i follow a gazillion industries. i can't name a single one that's doing better than it was six months ago. w plus we know that weak and emerging markets are weaker still. weakest of all is high yield debt. again, we're worried about mutual fund redemptions of high
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the selloff we got today will continue, because higher rates hurt emerging markets more than anything else out there. or, as i would put it off the desk, it's a very suboptimal situation. after the close wednesday, i'm going to listen to fedex, because the company gives a good world view. plus who would be a better arbiter of world business?be maybe ups? how is fedex going? we'll find out. i bet we'll be less than enthused, because the world is slowing. i know all the people say the fed has to raise, has to raise. you'll get your wish. r if we get a big selloff on wednesday after the fed decision, then you might want to buy, near the end of the day, a couple of stocks near the close that i really like. accenture and general mills. both of them have been putting up excellent numbers, really the
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general mills is going more natural and gives you good yield.u i think maybe you use a bad fed statement to pick some up. we also hear from delta in an analysts meeting. lately the airlines have become hard to own because terrorist fears combat travel. not to mention the usual strong dollar woes, people who europe who want to come here.eu i think delta is going to have decent things to say. but i wouldn't look at it as a buy, unless it was clobbered by a fed-induced selloff, although it's at the cheapest it's ever been on essential.t' i want you to be careful if you own boeing going into the delta meeting. delta has been prone right now to talking about a glut of wide-bodied planes. and that's not encouraging. the work i did this week, delta is right.
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have fascinated people. first is blackberry. i don't care for the company. i favor subscriber bases that are robust. that's not the case here. then lennan. then darden, which is also of course olive garden, capital grille, i'm giving you its blessing. if the stock falls below to where it yields 4%, i am definitely not sanguine about the stock market. all week i've fought against trying to be too bearish. but after yesterday's spike, it is time to do some selling if you haven't locked in any gains. i'm concerned about this high yield bond fund debacle. i'm worried about a fed rate hike.d someone might say, oh, jim, thanks for nothing, it's down today.
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really, stop complaining. that's why i recommend locking down some gains and raising cash. you might need it. bobby in florida. >> caller: thanks for having me on, jim. you've helped me for years, drawing the line between trading and investing. >> caller: what are your thoughts on halliburton as an investment long term, after their baker hughes transaction? >> i'm not positive about halliburton. this deal is going to cloud things. buy schlumberger, which is all the way down within 2 points of its low. again, we don't know where oil is going to stop since opec decided to pretty much end itself, thank you saturday. danita in illinois. >> caller: happy holidays, jim. >> same to you. >> caller: thank you. i have a millennial son who has a little of apple and a little
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he wanted to know about microsoft and salesforce or netflix and comcast combo. it's something we do together. >> i'm glad you say millennial. a millennial person will be more interested in sales force. it's a very high growth company that doesn't pay a dividend. microsoft is a less growing company, but very good, that does pay a dividend. the younger person should be drawn to sales force. the older person should be drawn to microsoft because it has a little more capital appreciation and preservation.ti that's the way i want to split the difference. for him, it's crm. listen, i know it is tough out there. today was really ugly. i had a hard day. i don't know about you. even though it was kind of nice out.aybo but i am here to help. and i am suggesting locking down some gains. remember, we were up big yesterday, raising some cash. we're still very close to the highs. don't say i didn't tell you at the top if you're just a couple
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tonight i'm going to the mattress. not really. stay tuned. any of the purveyors of the plush, we'll see if they're worth owning. then, a meal ticket out of china's middle class. is yesterday's spinoff good news? plus two of corporate america's oldest institutions and they just had a merger. don't miss my take on dowdupont. today's news. and you know what i suggest you do? stick with cramer! >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." a follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc.
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after today's vicious beat down, it's worth remembering that not every stock that went lower today actually deserved to get hammered like it did. there are plenty of companies doing whatever they can to take advantage to control their destiny. you should buy stocks and the market throws a gigantic sale like it did today and like i expect it to do on monday. mattress firm, down $2.68 today. who took my lovey blanket? anyway, back on november 30th, we learned mattress firm, the number one mattress retailer in the united states, is buying sleepies, that will make it the only coast to coast, border to
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country. not only does this deal expand mattress firm's footprint, giving them more than 3500 stories, but it gives the company difficult to penetrate markets until the northeast that can be extremely lucrative. the stock has fallen $23 from its two-week high back in march. should you view this as an opportunity to buy it on the cheap? or are there real issues holding the company back because it should give you you pause? this one is a bit of a shootout. let's go to the mattresses. all right, it's something i always wanted to say on television, albeit not exactly in this context. the mattress industry is incredibly fragmented. mattress firm is in first place,
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the average cash payback period for opening a new location is less than a year. you can get your money back in a year. i've done a bunch of businesses. that's really quick. even before the sleepy's deal, the company had a game plan to grow its business organically and through acquisitions. organically is the real growth. mattress companies have been taking more and more shares. consumers demand ever greater expertise when they go mattress shopping. however, this has not been a particularly good period for mattress firm. think about home depot. when the company reported second quarter results in september, it missed on both the top and the bottom.
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increased. these results and especially the weak guidance were so disheartening that mattress firm's stock went into a nose dive. that caught my eye and said something's wrong here. since then the stock has picked up some momentum, in part because mattress firm had an interest if not revelatory meeting where they laid out a growth plan. the company highlighted their omni channel and direct to consumer reference. the hand holding caused the stock to jump. after the analyst day, the next big development came on november 30th, when mattress firm announced a landmark acquisition of sleepy's, which has locations in 17 states. this transaction is expected to close in the second half of next year.
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savings and more about scale. by snapping up sleepy's, mattress firm is establishing itself as a nationwide bedding retailer. the combined company will be able to squeeze more value out of its distribution networks and its ad campaigns, plus they'll have more bargaining power with suppliers and with pricing. on top of that, the buying company will generate a substantial amount of free cash flow which mattress firm can use to pay down the $740 million it's taking on in cheap debt to buy sleepy's. all that said, there are concerns about the sleepy's deal. the implied price of $780 million represents a pretty good price for sleepy's. some people are worried that
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company that's basically been stagnant despite pretty strong growth in the mattress business. i've seen analysts fret that mattress firm is taking on too much leverage. at the close of the transaction the company will have debt to ebitda ratio of 4, which doesn't leave a lot of room for error. they're still going to have enormous interest payments to me. plus mattress companies have a long history of failure. however, i think many of these worries are being blown out of proportion. mattress firm has a long history of making acquisitions like this one. 2012, they bought mattress giant. last year they acquired mattress discounters. mattress kings, bed mart, sleep train. they're trying to dominate the country. we like that. in short, mattress firm has a to
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consolidator. sleepy's has been extremely successful in urban areas. at the same time that we learned about the sleepy's deal, mattress firm preannounced its third quarter results. this time the company beat wall street's earnings estimates, up 3.8%. when mattress firm went on to report full results this past monday, company management maintained their full year guidance as they expect sales to decelerate in the next quarter. put it all together and there's a lot to like about mattress firm. here is a company that just started getting its act together. and one you might want to look at after the fed rate hike. i'm trying to give you a full list ts wehi of what could get hurt.
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enough stocks that are plays on rising household formation. the optimal situation would be if mattress firm cut down its dell. a deal of stock would be good. it would give you a chance to buy at a discount. if you want to speculate on a nice mattress retailer then you have my bless to go buy mattress firm. i think the bull case is stronger than the bearish one. but keep in mind, it is a legit bear case. not to mention there's an army of short sellers betting against the stock because of its uneven performance and higher leverage. i think the bulls will win out. you should still be careful and only buy mattress firm in weakness, because it would be easy for a company to screw up the acquisition with sleepy's. with all the money it's borrowed
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truly would be disastrous. that's why i need my lovey blanket in case they don't issue that equity that i want. there's so much more "mad money" ahead. it could be a spinoff in yum. could it be a nasty treat for shareholders? then there are two giants of american industry, and today they decided to tie the knot. what's next for dupont and dow? i'm revealing. plus investors barred from accessing their money, the sec standing on the sidelines. it's not the latest hollywood feature. it's happening right now. i'll tell you why it's going to
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here's a question for you. what's happening with yum brands? the global fast food brand has untouchable, given the company's huge exposure to china where they've been plagued by the avian influence, food safety concerns, and worries about the overall strength of the chinese economy and the consumer. yum finally decided to take some action, announcing it's going to spin off its business, creating two separate businesses, yum china, and yum brands which will be everywhere else except china.
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there along with operating concerns have been dragging down the rest of the company. although if the chinese market were to come roaring back, then yum china would let you participate directly in the upside. when yum first announced the china spinoff, we learned that yum china would have exclusive rights to kfc and pizza hut in the people's republic, growing its locations from 69 to up to 20,000 down the road. the global is to create a spinoff that will serve the chinese consumer. at the same time, owning this stock would be a bet on kfc, pizza hut and taco bell. at long last the rest of the company won't be hit by the chinese business. over time it plans to be a franchisor, instead of running many of its own restaurants. this slower growth, higher margin company also plans to return to shareholders.
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much. yum just hosted an incredibly important analysts meeting have we finally got some details about the spinoff plan which management expects will be finished by the end of next year. what did they say yesterday? let's start with what we learned about the future of yum brands once they get rid of china. it will be a more focused, high margin, i'll call it a steady eddie global franchise plan. yum is targeting 13% annual earnings growth along with a 2% dividend someone's the separation goes through. the non-china part of yum will be 96% franchise, oh, my god, a cash machine. in short, the post-breakup yum brands will be exactly the kind of slow and steady restaurant stock that i'm sure many of you would like a piece of. look what happened with
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steady. this business will have a very different profile after the spinoff. yum china is going to be a much higher risk, faster growing company than the remaining yum brands. the chinese company plans to generate 15% earnings growth annually after the separation with no external debt, a massive amount of free cash flow. management believes yum china will have enough cash to pay a significant buyback. yum is forecasting 5 and 6% annual sales growth in china and 3 to 5% margin improvement. put it all together, that's 15% earnings growth. that seems doable, although it certainly hasn't been doing that lately. tonight i want to take you through the most crucial pieces of information they gave us.
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numbers for yum's china business, sales declined by 3%, driven by a brutal 9% stepdown at pizza hut. it hurt the stock particularly since wall street was expecting a 3% gain. management reiterated their preference for growth in china given the strength of kfc. my view? yum china still has a lot of work to do to stabilize its comps. for now, they're no longer in a tailspin. could be some easy comparisons ahead. yum brands wants its chinese business to flourish. of course there's still a year to go before the breakup goes into effect. yesterday yum told us it plans to return $6.2 billion to shareholders. these guys are really pro-shareholder. one company will be trying to feed the other.
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yum expect going forward? pizza hut yum blames on the market. kfc continues the gradual rebound. this was once a red-hot reason to own yum, kfc china. it's very difficult to predict the actual course of the chinese consumer economy. i think this could be a good story if yum china could figure out what's ailing its chains. the new ceo appears to be focused on making the menus and operations easier for the customers to interact with. but many analysts worry the strategy might be too aggressive and numbers might have to come down. on the other hand, yum outlined five issues they believe could help them turn around pizza hut. plus they plan to highlight the pizza hut value proposition. right now the chinese view this
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dining play. that's definitely what yum is going for. they plan to improve the in-store experience and roll out better digital technology. personally i find some aspects of the turnaround plan less than encouraging, especially the focus on value. it suggests that yum china might sacrifice price to go boost traffic. outside of china, pizza hut is bringing in its best numbers in years. plus we know taco bell, which has no chinese presence whatsoever, is currently on fire. that's something yum believes they can keep doing for many years to come. changing advertising, people like it. we've got a lot of promises out of yum at yesterday's investors' meeting. while the company answered many of the biggest questions, right now the story comes down to the company's ability to execute. that's going to be difficult to predict. fortunately we've got a year before the spinoff happens. let's see if yum can turn around its chinese business. otherwise i would rather ignore
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stub of yum brands when the breakup happens. but again, we've got a lot of time to make up our minds before we do. however i salute yum's management for taking these bull actions to bring out value at a time when the market is not satisfied with business as usual. if you can get the stock below the $71.31 they were at today, i think it's worth it for the ride. elise in new york. >> caller: hello, mr. cramer. can you advise me if i should keep walmart? i've had it for 35 years. >> this is a very tough question. if you've had it for 35 years, you have a big tax basis. i don't want you to pay taxes. i think it will take two years to turn. i think doug macmillan two years to turn it. if you can hold it, take the 3% yield and sit on it, i think it will be fine.
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before then. it will take too long. can yum execute? time will tell. let's see if it can turn around its chinese busy. otherwise but with the stub of yum brands when you get it. much more "mad money" ahead. it's a $130 million deal. don't miss my take on the dowdupont merger. it's kind of like a script out of a hollywood blockbuster. plus a freaky friday edition of
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here's a prediction. eventually we'll look back at today and think, wow, how did we not take advantage of the weakness in the stock market to buy dow chemical or dupont after the two chemical giants announced their merger deal? we'll be kicking ourselves that we missed the opportunity. i know there's plenty wrong with the stock market right now. let's go through it again, because you know i'm very cautious. we have ever-declining prices including oil which put pressure on debt and equities as we saw this week with a disastrous cut by kinder morgan and the shocking decision by a large
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of a high yield fund because there was no liquidity to meet redemptions. every industry that i follow is weaker than it was six months ago. we know that the rest of the world is slowing. the stock market is now doing quite poorly. i've become less bullish about stocks. as i've repeatedly said, once the right hikes begin, you can't like it as much as you did before. or to put it another day, this was a bad day to announce the merger of dow and dupont. who wants a worldwide chemical company in a fed slowdown? i would totally agree if i didn't have so much faith in the people doing the deal. the ceo of dow chemical has been working like a dog to get his company out of the chemical business where dow can provide little value added. meanwhile, he's cut out a
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kind of a brilliant way. lowered the cost of the raw feedstock needed for plastic. that's natural gas or methane or propane, while buying back a huge amount of stock. and offering a bountiful dividend, allowing the stock to rally. dupont too has a ceo we've watched for some time and applauded for his insistence on endless value creation. ed bream was appointed ceo of the company. he sacrificed dupont's history of autonomy. we like bream because we believe in breaking up companies to create value. he created more value when he broke up tyco than any other ceo.
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do the deal. that's pretty extraordinary. what makes me like this merger on the facts and the fundamentals? i like the three different companies that they intend to create. they'll give you an agricultural chemicals company, a material sciences company and a specialty products company. each of these businesses will be a leader in its respective industry. the $19 billion agricultural company offers the most comprehensive portfolio in the business. management specifically pointed out the seeds and crop protection segments hand in glove would be parallel. i like this better than monsanto. before this deal, it was being
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business. when the commodities gain strength, it will be the stock worth owning in the segment. the $50 billion material sciences business combines technology offerings that can provide solutions for customers in packaging, construction, goods markets. dow's plastics and infrastructure business, that's really the old core dow, dovetail perfectly. finally, the specialty products is my favorite. they got electronic materials from dow, dupont's industrial bioscience, nutritional, health, and safety offerings. enzymes that will give you a company that looks a lot like the fabulously performing 3m. the combined entity, dowdupont,
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flip a coin? anyway, they intend to unlock $30 billion of value with the establishment of these three separate companies. i don't even doubt that figure, considering that both ceos have amazing records of creating wealth for shareholders. it's not enough to shuffle the deck of the two companies. they're going to cut costs and bring out synergies. those are overused words, but there's a ton of overlap between the two businesses. the ceos can choose which plants to open and which to close, and there will be a ton that they close, sorry for the works but it will boost the bottom line. i think the savings will be even bigger than $3 billion. on a management level, bream is going to be ceo over the other two companies.
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years to pull off. there's no slam dunk here when it comes to antitrust issues. combining the agricultural business does eliminated some competition. you'll have to wait for a long time to see the fruits of the measure. we've decided to hold on to dow for the travel trust, because you're being paid to wait, with this yield. while i'm at it, i want to salute nelson peltz for his persistence in making something happen here. earlier he rebuffed the dupont board after a bitter proxy fight. the stock fell 20 points instantly. he urged viewers to stick with dupont, because he wasn't giving up on pressuring management for returns. i said, stay the course, because peltz has the best track record
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he never wavered. dupont stock's dividends are all the way back to where it was. the bottom line, i say congratulations to all involved who put this deal together. so sorry that the stock market couldn't give you more of an instant reward for your efforts. we have a not so hot tape right now, not much working. but one day, dowdupont will seem like a pretty good darned idea. just don't let that day be when the stock is up substantially from this nasty session where the deal was revealed. "mad money" is back after the break. red 97! set! red 97! did you say 97? yes. you know, that reminds me of geico's 97% customer satisfaction rating. 97%? helped by geico's fast and friendly claims service.
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>> it is time. it is time for the lightning round. you say the name of the stock. i don't know the calls or the name of the stock ahead of time. i tell you whether to buy or sell. when you hear this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? >> what do you think about nei? >> i say buy. bud in ohio. >> caller: how about regal entertainment group? >> i like the yield. i think it's okay. the whole slate hasn't been that good for movies. how about scott in michigan? >> caller: hi, mr. cramer. buy, sell, or hold, heartland systems? >> i think it's got a lot of good things to be said.
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>> caller: i am calling about chrysler with the impending -- >> not recommending any oil stocks, too risky. dennis? >> caller: northern american tank. >> tankers are all filled, i really like it. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. [ buzzer ] >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. >> i'm in do you dubai. don't bother me, i'm in dubai. we used to do a lot of theater in the old days. >> that's what i think in the
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>> they need somebody right here. that's it! i'm a buyer of yahoo!! that's what it was, david. this rubbermaid merger, i like it, it would allow these two companies to bargain better with the walmarts. the walmarts are always trying to wrest the marginal profit away from companies like these. if they get together, it would be a very successful mix. did that not work well or what? you know what might be a super combination? isn't that dynamite?
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markets to raise capital. i always point out these risks to you because i myself have been blindsided by just focusing on equities many times in my life, and not keeping my ear to the ground of the bond market. well, this is one of those days when my ears are burning with concern because of the troubles at a high yield bond fund run by third avenue management llc. this firm has decided to bar investors from getting their money from its focused credit fund because they can't meet their demands to give cash back in any orderly way. when they try to sell the bonds they own, they're destroying the very market for these bonds because there are no real buyers who want to sell. how disconcerting this move is. people at money mutual funds have the expectation if they want their money back, they can get it at a moment's notice. that's what a mutual money fund
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if there's no liquidity in the investments themselves, i think the whole notion of the mutual fund concept is going to be called into question by this one firm's position. third avenue management is going to sell them over time in order to return your money. but who knows how much will be left versus what you thought you had in the fund by the time that liquidation is over. third avenue did not contact the sec before it banned redemptions, according to the "wall street journal," because it needed to act fast. what is this, a run? that is unprecedented and alarming. the implications of the fed's decision are wide ranging. yesterday i told you to get out of emerging market debt, high risk energy debt that's junk, because of the problem thing price of oil. i wasn't broad enough. these types of funds, people read about third avenue's decisions, and they start making withdrawals. i've looked at recent
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investments seem pretty unattractive, and i am being very kind by saying that, and they were very risky. that's not the point. the point is that the market for high yield debt has so little liquidity right now that it's worrisome for those who own any kind of open-ended fund with this kind of junk in it. normally a fund would go to brokers and ask for pieces of paper. but brokers are no longer willing to buy bonds from funds like these because they fear violating the dodd-frank legislation. meanwhile, as liquidity has drained or dried up, the size of the pool of assets like these has gotten bigger and bigger, growing like a weed. there's perhaps as much as $1.4 trillion of this high yield junk out there, much of it created because of the good times coming out of the great recession, and the demand for instruments with a bigger return than treasury bonds because the return is so
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this is that reach for yield play that i always tell you to avoid. third avenue's tactics will shock many clients into action this weekend. all at once, on monday, to avoid further losses in a market that's been weak for ages. that's what's going to happen. it's going to cause a lot of stress in the system. and it will impact stocks negatively. as we saw today, that was behind a lot of this. once again, i'm going to alert you to my more negative stance on all markets. this too shall pass. but call me distressed by the actions of this distressed debt fund. i would like to think it's a one-off development and it won't happen to other funds. but we're already hearing about another fund, a hedge fund, stone line capital. mutual funds are supposed to let you out immediately. next week could go very rocky for these kinds of funds as managers try to flee them. with the federal reserve poised
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mutual funds are inviolate. which is why i'm urging some caution here ahead of the fed meeting. this is a more important story than the fed. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it for you right here at "mad money." i'm jim cramer. i will see you monday. tonight on "1st lo," it's noght "1st look," it's nothing but big kids and big kid toys. it's a family showdown on the racetrack and the patridge grand prix. i was talking smack before, but now i'm a little nervous. we tackle the wipeout run and try our best not to get, well, wiped out.
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