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it's what you do. if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. it's what you do. when australian police and the fbi showed up at lee's doorstep she didn't seem surprised. but her 20-year-old daughter was about to receive the shock of her life. >> i couldn't fathom what was going on. it happened so fast that, you know, it keeps replaying in my mind. >> reporter: savanna, or samantha, as she knew herself, was away at college when her boyfriend brad handed her the phone and said her mom was on the line. she talked about that moment of truth with australia's 7 network. >> and brad said, she's crying.

she's a very strong woman. so she said, look, i'm being arrested. and of course, i went, oh my goodness, you know? i'd never expect out of anyone in the world my mom would have done anything. it was a brief conversation about how she was married previously in america and she conceived me with him, and then something became unsafe, and she just took me and ran. so the first thing that popped into my head, i said, does that mean dad isn't my dad? >> reporter: as far back as savanna could remember, juan geldenhuys had always been by her side. she believed he was her biological dad, something lee kept reinforcing. >> mom would relay things, you know? like, you sleep like your dad. or you know, you look like your dad. so i've always grown up with that. >> reporter: but tragedy struck in 2011 when juan, by then divorced from lee, fell sick with cancer. the man savanna thought was her dad died just a week before lee was arrested. >> he fought very long and very hard, but it was inevitable.

words i said to him was i love you and the same with him. >> reporter: savanna said she had barely begun to mourn her father's death when the news came that she was someone else's daughter. >> i've never heard harris todd. i've never heard savanna. i found out that i was biologically related to him, and he'd been helping the authorities to find my mom and i. >> reporter: imagine finding out that your mom was an international fugitive wanted by the fbi. imagine realizing that you were living a life you were not meant to live. and savanna said it was a good life. >> i grew up in mainly cape town, south africa. and that was just great. we used to go down to a beach in cape town and just spend family. mom's very into going to the beach and having fun there. >> reporter: she remembered going to game reserves in botswana and competing in swim races in new zealand. >> i had a lot of friends. i had animals. i was educated.

did piano. i had a mom. i had a dad. i had a brother. i had a house. and i was given everything they possibly could afford. it was just -- it was normal. it was so normal. >> reporter: so normal. and, as savanna now discovered, so different from the chaos of her first year as a baby back in charleston. she scoured the internet for articles written in the u.s. about the life she never knew. read about the custody battle. about how harris and others described her mom as mentally ill and violent. >> i've never, ever seen anything like that in my entire life. she's not got a mental illness. she's not violent. you know, unless she did this whole 180 and changed her entire attitude, then that's not who she is. >> reporter: so who was the mother that savanna knew? >> the most important thing i think is her compassion and the ability to encourage anyone and everyone. everything i am is because of

that i have had. >> reporter: she was afraid, she said, that with the revelation her mother was a fugitive, lee's australian friends would abandon her, but they did not. >> everyone stepped up and they said, what can we do, you know? i had about 20 people living at the house trying to help me with everything. and you know? so it really, really shows that everything that she's given to them, they're giving back to her. >> reporter: word of lee's capture had reached charleston. savanna was flooded with supportive e-mails and phone calls from lee's former friends and from family. she had often wondered about her relatives in the united states, like her grandmother and her uncle. now suddenly she was meeting them for what seemed like the very first time. >> beautiful house and my beautiful granddaughter. >> hello. >> oh my goodness. looks like her mommy did. >> reporter: now, the biggest reunion of all seemed like it was about to happen, too. lee was in an australian jail

u.s., and the man she wanted to keep away from savanna all those years was just a few miles away asking to meet his long-lost daughter. >> the fbi interviewed my daughter, and they informed her of me. i was told that she was looking forward to meeting me. >> reporter: but savanna's priority was to get her mom out of jail, not meet the man who helped put her behind bars. >> so i slept on it for a couple of nights, and i created an e-mail. and i just said i appreciate everything, but right now i can't even sit down to eat, you know? so i appreciate him coming over. but i'm sorry, you know. that's pretty much what it was. >> reporter: there would be no emotional meeting between father and daughter, at least not in australia. if harris was disappointed, he didn't show it. he'd learned long ago to keep his emotions at bay. was it heartbreaking for you

there and she wasn't ready to see you? >> no. >> reporter: but we're talking about your daughter and seeing your daughter and hugging her and telling her, i'm your dad. >> yeah. well, i didn't give up on that. i was there for about a month. and it wasn't until the third week that i finally realized that that just wasn't going to happen. >> reporter: so harris flew home, wondering if he'd ever see his daughter. after nine months in an australian jail, lee was extradited and flown back to charleston to face three federal counts of international parental kidnapping and passport fraud. and hot on her heels was savanna, returning to the city of her birth. going home to defend the mother who raised her and perhaps to meet the father she never knew. >> emotionally, i think that it's a decision i will make when

coming up -- at last. >> i need to see for my own eyes what kind of person he is. >> a moment 20 years in the making. >> when she came to the door, i held my hand out. i didn't know whether she wanted

in december 2014, savanna, with her boyfriend along for support, returned to charleston for the first time in 20 years. she came for her mother, who was behind bars facing kidnapping charges and a prison sentence. >> for 20 years, all of america's been like she's crazy. or she's stolen a kid and no one knew whether i was safe or not. so first off, me coming back happy, healthy and grounded would have to raise some questions, you know? >> reporter: samantha has gone on record as saying she never saw anything wrong with her mom. she had a loving childhood. great relationship. it really flies in the face of everything that we heard early on. >> well, there's a saying.

wasn't a fish. and a lot of times you can be raised in an environment and not necessarily know what it was until you happen to get outside of that environment and look back in. >> reporter: savanna returned home to a big welcome as lee's old friends gathered around to see her baby daughter all grown up now. to patty roth, lee's close friend who had held savanna the minute she was born, and patty's daughters who would have been her friends. and to charleston, the beautiful city that could have been savanna's home if life hadn't taken such a turn that ultimately led here, the charleston jail where her mom was awaiting trial. >> we don't know what's going to

i'm looking forward to going to trial, to be honest. >> i think we're going to give it all we got and that's all we can really say, right? >> it is. that's it. >> so we can only hope. >> and she said to me, i've done this all for you and i've succeeded, you know. she doesn't care what happens to her. >> reporter: lee's defense for what she did had not changed from the allegations she had made 20 years before, namely that harris had abused savanna that time when she picked her up with the bloody nose. lead prosecutor nathan williams said he re-investigated the incident but, like the original inquiry, found no evidence to support lee's charge. >> the first doctor said there was no problem with it, they didn't think a second opinion was needed. the defendant in this case got a second opinion from their pediatrician, who said the same thing. and so there was an indication that she was looking for an answer that wasn't there. >> reporter: not only that, williams' investigation revealed that lee had started to plan her

harris of harming baby savanna. >> we know contemporaneously, with this allegation of abuse that was unfounded, she was also getting false documents, false driver's licenses, false passports and setting the table to flee the country with her child. to try to rationalize it and claim that it was based on something that isn't true, to me, is a clear indication of guilt. >> reporter: "dateline" asked lee for an interview, but she declined. in the end, she pleaded guilty to all the charges against her. savanna spoke at the sentencing. she began by giving her name. >> i didn't know which one to give. so i gave all of them. and i said, samantha mulga geldenhuys. i said savanna lee barnett, savanna catherine todd. and i spoke the truth. i spoke from the heart. i remember saying that she gave me every opportunity. and she's given me the most

>> reporter: the judge sentenced lee to 21 months in prison. what did you think should be the punishment for lee? >> over a third of my life was essentially taken from me. the most important thing in my life. even if my daughter disagrees with it, i think her mother deserved to spend more time in jail for what she did. if for nothing else than a warning to any other abductive parent. >> reporter: there's been a lot of claims of revenge, that you put on this facade of trying to find your daughter when it was really about finding lee and making sure she paid. >> no. i'm not seeking revenge, not seeking revenge. all i wanted was my daughter, that's all. i love my daughter. and unfortunately, my ex-wife took her. and it's not revenge to want my daughter back. >> reporter: the daughter harris lost 20 years ago had been in charleston for several weeks. seemingly meeting everyone who had played a role in her past

but then a little after christmas 2014, he got the e-mail he'd been longing for. savanna wanted to meet. just one rule, she said. no talk about her mother or the case. and no photos. >> i'm not going to be ditching my mom by any means. but i wouldn't expect them to ever see each other again. but i need to have a mature, adult relationship and see for my own -- in my own eyes, and gauge myself what kind of person he is. >> reporter: harris happily agreed, and a few days later, y were, father and daughter face-to-face on the doorstep of the house that once was savanna's home. >> when she came to the door, i didn't know whether she wanted to shake my hand or not. but -- so i held my hand out. and she said, no, i want a hug. >> reporter: that must have felt so good when she said that. >> oh, shoot, felt great.

to what was once her bedroom, with its little wooden crib and baby toys. a place where time had stood still until now. >> to be honest, i was trying to make sure that i didn't fall apart. i didn't want to just stand there and cry or anything like that. here's a daughter who remembers nothing about her father. here's a father who remembers everything about his daughter and has longed for her for years and years. well, it's very hard to put those two things together. it's -- >> reporter: it's like two different worlds coming together. >> right. you know, life is not like a hallmark movie. >> it was natural. no, there was no uncomfortable. there was no awkwardness. i think that i'm a natural-born speaker. and it seemed to be that he is too. i learned very much a lot about him and my family on his side. and yeah, it was very pleasant.

from prison in may and has to spend two years of probation in the charleston area. she'll have to build a new life in the u.s. as a convicted felon. she may never be allowed back into australia. but savanna returned there, to the place she calls home, to continue her college studies. since her visit she has not been in touch with her father. but if there is anything that harris has learned in the last 20 years, it is that there is always hope. >> you know, my daughter's her own person now. she can make her own decisions. and whether my daughter wants to contact me or not, she knows where i am. and she knows i want to hear from her, whatever happens. that's all for this edition of "dateline."

thanks for joining us. this sunday morning, donald trump's call to temporarily ban muslims from entering the country may have thrilled his supporters but it's disgust it had establishment. >> you really have no choice. it's so out of control. it's so terrible. >> why republicans fear a ticket headed by trump is a ticket headed for disaster. plus, could we be looking at a contested convention? our new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll on the republican race shows a serious three-way contest developing with new signs that ted cruz and marco rubio are on the move. rubio joins me exclusively. also, a global deal on climate change. i'll talk to secretary of state john kerry about the agreement in paris and about fears of homegrown terror. and joining me this morning for insight and analysis are veteran journalist and author of a new book about cyber terrorism, ted koppel.

times." molly ball of the "atlantic" and jerry seib of the "wall street journal." welcome to sunday, it's "meet the press." good sunday morning. expressing their opinion. we have two new polls on the republican race for president. according to what may be developing into a three-man race, let's get to these numbers. donald trump is back on top in our new national nbc news/"wall street journal" poll sitting at 27%. up four points since late october, the highest number he's had in our poll so far. ted cruz is surging, now in second, sitting at 22, more than double where he was in october. marco rubio also on the rise. and look at old ben carson, the one-time leader. believe it or not, he led in the last nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. he's dropped dramatically to 11%. here's the rest of the candidates who picked up at

jeb bush still stuck in single digits. then this bombshell out of iowa. cruise surging into the lead with 31%, a 21-point gain since october. trump is holding steady at 21% followed by carson who, here, too has crashed. he's down 15 points since october. then rubio and bush. so what we think we're seeing that's emerging here is perhaps a three-way race with trump and cruz representing the insurgents at the republican gate and marco rubio counting on becoming the candidate of the faction he needs but is reluctant to acknowledge, the republican establishment. i caught up with senator rubio in greenville, south carolina and i asked him if donald trump had been good for the republican party and rubio's candidacy. >> obviously i don't agree with everything he says. there's a lot we have a difference of opinion on but we can't ignore he's touched on issues people are concerned about. if you look at the statement he is made this week, obviously i think he made them to recapture the limelight after having lost

of the focus on the attacks in san bernardino and focused on a plan that isn't a plan and is never going to happen. but he is reminding us in that process that people are really upset and scared. they're worried. and i think the president made things worst with his speech, not better. that's what he''s focused in on. >> you call the comments offensive and outlandish. that's different than the tone you took with me right now. >> it's offensive and outlandish for example that it's not going to happen, number one, i violates the things we think about in our country. but also the practical reality. that in order for us to eididentify homegrown violent extremism, we'll need the cooperation of muslim communities in this country. they may be the first ones to see it. they're the ones that will see radicalization happening at a mosque or in the community or even among their own family members so -- and the other smart there's a narrative that isis and other jihadists pose that this is a war between muslims and the rest of the world and that sort of victimization narrative is something we shouldn't contribute to.

acknowledge that there is a radical element in islam, jihadism, that needs to be called by name and needs to be confronted. >> about three months ago you were asked whether donald trump was qualified to be president and you said so far you hadn't heard anything to make him qualified but give it time. where have you in heard today. >> the most important thing for a president is to be commander in chief and that means having an understanding of the complex issue on foreign policy. foreign policy presents with us hard choice, not black or white choices. often times choices are down to two less than ideal outcomes but you have to choose which is the best for the country. i personally believe he continues to struggle to articulate that. >> so that makes him unqualified? >> well, obviously i think i'm the most qualified. that's why i'm running. >> is he qualified at all? >> i have very strong reservations about what he's expressed about his understanding on these critical issues before our country so he has another month before the iowa caucus. >> do you think in a month he can learn? >> he's not alone. i think others in the field have

where they stand on these issues. >> you just said that the president's speech made it worse. if you were president in a moment like that, what would you have done? what would you have said? >> well, first i would have acknowledged why people are concerned and i would have acknowledged that -- >> he acknowledged it. >> beyond just acknowledging it in the way he did. i would have said, look, i know people, i personally know people that have told me they're not taking trip this is new year's because of they're afraid of what they're reading in the press, people in have always taken a tress. perhaps it's anecdotealanecdotal. we can defeat them. what we're doing now is not enough. and i honestly believe we need more air strikes, you can't defeat them from the air. you must do two additional things we are not doing now. number one is put together a global coalition on the ground made up primarily of arab sunnis. we'll work with the kurds in the kurdish areas and even with christians but isis needs to be feeted on the ground and

arab themselves. it will require embedding alongside them special operators from the u.s. and other international partners. and we need to start cross messaging these people, countermessaging, propaganda has played a war in every conflict. i think this is critical. isis is portraying themselves that has extraordinary caliphate, that life is glorious under isis rule, nothing can be further from the truth. so we need to invest more time, for example, explaining to people what happens to non-iraqis that join isis. they're treated as cannon fodder. >> everything you just outlined, though, the administration would argue they're -- that's all part of their strategy. sounds like you basically agree with the president's strategy, you just might implement some part of it differently. >> maybe rhetorically some of it is but most of it is not. >> they have a propaganda program that frankly outsiders have said hasn't worked and it. >> i don't believe that we have. do -- >> i don't think a couple twitter posts from the state

>> would you model after radio -- >> well, absolutely but it would require us to work with muslim communities around the world that are not islamists to counter message to young people, to counter message to them about why this is not true islam as these muslim leaders argue and, in fact, what life under isis control is like. much more widespread than what we're doing now. on the ground i do not believe the president is doing what i'm outlining. >> your campaign has been critical of one of your rivals, senator ted cruz for his vote on the usa freedom act and senator mike lee, somebody you have a tax plan with, you guys are allies on a lot of things, he has said that your rhetoric has been not based in fact. and that it's not true what you've been saying that somehow federal officials can't track -- use the usa freedom act, use the court to track the phone numbers. >> well, on this issue not only is he wrong but others that argue that are wrong. we had a program that allowed us to collect the phone records.

the content of your conversations, your e-mails, anything like, that just your phone bill. only 16 people in the u.s. government could look at it and only if they got a court order from a fisa court to look at those phone records. and they retain them for a significant period of time. under this new law, we are trusting the phone companies to hold those records and all of these phone companies have different period of times when they hold it. some will hold it for 18 months, some six months. in is a valuable tool. if you have identified someone as a potential terrorist or someone who carries out a terrorist activity, the ability to look at who they've been calling and talking to is part of a larger puzzle that you can put together to see what network they've been working with, who they've been communicating with. we have lost that capacity in many cases. >> is this a commander-in-chief test for senator cruz? >> i believe it is for all the candidates. in the case of senator cruz my argument is it wasn't just the intelligence vote. he talks tough on these issues, for example he's going to carpet bomb isis. but the only budget he's ever voted for in his time in the

defense spending by more than barack obama proposes we cut it. he voted against the defense authorization act every year it came up. and that is the bill -- and i assume if he voted against it he would veto it as president -- that's the bill that funds our troops and the ierm dome for israel. so my point is each time he's had to choose between strong national defense and some of the isolationist tendencies in american politics he sides with the isolationists. this is an important issue to have a debate over. it's not personal. >> there's been some questions on some of your -- even your supporters and people that are pulling for you that say where's rubio going to win? he's not playing to win iowa. he's not playing to win new hampshire. at some point, you know, donald trump aside, you have to win if you're going to win the nomination. >> look, we'll all be judged at the end of the race. at the end of the race things don't work out we'll be subject to criticism. let's wait and see how the votes are counted. i feel confident in our plan. >> are you trying to win iowa?

i'm not running for second or third place in any state in this country. >> you're trying to win iowa? >> i'm trying to win everywhere we can. i always go for first place, it doesn't always work out this way. in many elections strong a strong second place is viewed at first place. you can't campaign to take second or third. >> you are viewed as the establishment candidate. how do you feel? >> it is viewed as a slight. >> is it an attack? >> it reflects my history. i wouldn't be here if the establishment didn't want me. i have consistently voted against some people who you would identify as the establishment are for. when i chose to get into this race i had people come forward and tell me i shouldn't run, it wasn't my turn. by the way, if i was the establishment favorite i would have raised more than $6 million in the last quarter. that all being said, the truth is, we ultimately will need to unify the party. the republican party cannot be elected unless it is together, working together in the same direction and that alone is not enough.

our party but we can't just win by unifying our party. we must also attract new people to our cause and we do that not by changing our principles but by applying our principles of limited government, free enterprise and strong national defense to the hopes and dreams of concerns of everyday americans some of whom have not heard from republicans in a long time. >> are you going to work to overturn same-sex marriage? >> i disagree with it on constitutional zblound are you going to overturn it? >> if you want to change the definition of marriage, you need to go to state legislatures and get them to change it. states have always defined marriage. that's why some people get married in las vegas by an elvis impersonator and in florida you have to wait a couple days. every state has different marriage laws but i do not believe the court system is the right way to do it because i don't believe -- >> it's done now. are you going to work to overturn it? >> you can't work to overturn it. >> you can do a constitutional amendment. >> that would be conceding that the current constitution is somehow wrong and needs to be fixed. i don't think the current

marriage. local level. and that's why if you want to change the definition of marriage, which is what this argue system about, it's not about discrimination, it's about the definition of a specific traditional and age-old institution, that definitional change, if you want to change it, you have a right to petition your state legislature and your elected representatives to do it. what is wrong is that the supreme court has found this hidden constitutional delight 200 years of jurisprudence had not discovered and overturned the will of voters in florida where over 60% passed a constitutional amendment that defined marriage in the state constitution as the union of one man and one woman. >> so are you accepting the idea of same-sex marriage? >> well, it's current law. i don't believe any case law is settled law. any future supreme court can change it and ultimately i will appoint supreme court justices that will interpret the constitution as originally constructed.

are and extented version of my sit down including health care, he's getting credit for from the right from helping to undo a big portion of obamacare. and the question of whether he's putting florida special interests ahead of his conservative principles on the issue of big sugar. that's on meetthepressnbc.com. when we come back, fear and loathing on the campaign trail. why so many in the republican party fear [ male announcer ] whether it takes 200,000 parts, 800,000 hours of supercomputing time, 3 million lines of code, 40,000 sets of eyes, or a million sleepless nights. whether it's building the world's most advanced satellite, the space station, or the next leap in unmanned systems. at boeing, one thing never changes. our passion to make it real. those new glasses? they are. do i look smarter?

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there's a truisim in american politics -- democrats fall in love, republicans fall in line. so we thought. not this year. the opposite has happened. democrats are falling in line with their established candidate, hillary clinton, while it's republicans, like a rebellious teenager, smitten with the bad boy on the motorbike in donald trump. and the parents -- in this case the republican establishment -- are taking a dim view of that relationship, terrify add trump nomination would wipe out republicans up and down the ballot. >> it's no longer a silent majority, it a test noisy majority. >> as donald trump weathers yet another storm of his own making -- >> are you racist? >> i am the least racist person you have ever met. i am the least racist person. >> the republican establishment is grappling with how to keep the nomination away from trump without alienating his supporters.

washington rushed to condemn donald trump's plan to ban muslim immigration. >> this is not conserveatismconservatism. what was proposed yesterday is not what this party stands for. >> that would be completely inconsistent with american values. >> the root of the panic? that trump at the top of the ticket will mean a wipeout down the ballot, losing the senate for republicans and even putting the house in jeopardy. but while trump's 2016 rivals warned republicans he is unelectable -- >> if he continues to do what he's doing he's destroying the party, it will be a generation before we can overcome this. maybe never. >> all this helps is hillary clinton for sure. >> those establishment rivals are mired in single digits and trump's latest comments don't appear to have damaged his standing among certain republican primary voters. >> who's cutting off people's heads in who's bombing buildings? who's bombing airplanes? not the christians. not the jewish, not the

>> 41% of americans believe trump's campaign statements are frequently insulting and have the wrong approach. but that's true of just 16% of republicans. conservative rival ted cruz is raising questions in private about trump's judgment. >> who am i comfortable having their finger on the button? now that's a question of strength but it's also a question of judgment. >> but in public avoiding a cage match, tweeting "sorry to disappoint, real donald trump is terrific. #dealwithit." behind closed doors, republican officials are preparing for the possibility of a contested convention. on the record, the party chair is treating trump cautiously telling a conservative newspaper he disagrees with trump's muslim ban but turning down requests to make that point on camera. and republican officials worry about angering trump supporters. a new coalition of white working class voters fighting to remake the gop who themselves may be open to an independent run by trump.

have a problem because i'll have to go into that convention and i'm dealing with all these blood sucker politicians and they'll make their deals. but if i get the number of delegates, there's not a thing they can do and i'll do fine with the establishment. i was a member of the establishment six months ago. >> i'm joined by a panel that's already laughing here. former "nightline" hose ted koppel, author of a new book about cyber terrorism called "lights out, a cyber attack, a nation unprepared." then helene cooper, pentagon correspondent for the "new york times," molly boll of the "atlantic" and jerry seib who is the bureau chief. jerry, let me start with you, trump, trump, trump, trump. but -- >> you were talking about fear and loathing. here's the number in our poll that has republican establishment people in fear and loathing mode. 59% of the people that we surveyed have a negative view of donald trump. 47% have a very negative view of donald trump. so that's -- those are tough

that's the specter they worry about. however, having said that, you know, there is no sign that the block of people within the republican electorate who support donald trump are going anywhere. there's been no erosion. not since june, really, has there been any question who was the leading candidate in the republican party. and these are new voters. will they be republican primary voters? we'll find out. >> molly, what's been interesting here is the -- people will look at these polls today and say trump's falling. no, trump's increased his support. not only here, it's -- there's other stuff going on. he's just not growing anymore. >> the story of this race has been remarkably stable. when you look at it over the long term, it's been remarkably stable. in 2012 we had different front-runners over and over and over again. there has been one front-runner in this republican primary and we talk about it like it's changing because there's churn underneath. people look at these polls with trump on top and there's a blindness that you hear among the republican establishment or pundits like they pretend he's

he is there, he is staying there and he is remarkably stable and the only thing that is going to take him out is somebody else doing better by consolidating the rest of the vote and this is what you're seeing in the register poll, in the iowa poll. when i talk to these establishment republicans, as we like to call them, cruz scares them more than trump. because trump makes cruz look reasonable. >> that's interesting. i want to show you. the other candidates don't want to outright say they don't want to support trump. they're afraid of it. let me show you a roundup on that question from the candidates themselves. >> that's a hypothetical i reject out of hand that he is going to be the nominee. >> i will absolutely support the republican nominee but i hope and intend for that nominee to be me. >> i don't answer theoreticals. i don't answer hypotheticals. what i am firmly convinced so that donald trump will not be our nominee. >> i signed a pledge, that's why you have to be careful with

support the republican nominee. but i will tell you, sir, there's no way that donald trump is going to be president. >> all right, so if you want to know why they won't say that, why they won't say they won't support him, well, i asked republican senator jeff flake of arizona and he gave me the honest dodge as to why. take a listen. >> if republicans say now we will not support the ultimate nominee, that gives donald trump license to run as a third party candidate. >> ted, there's the issue. >> well, there's the issue and, of course, they're all old enough to remember lyndon baines johnson who once said if you get down into the mud with a hog and you wrestle with a hog, the hog loves it and you're both going to get dirty. they don't want to get dirty and they know that trump love this is kind of thing. and your polls and yours are what's giving them the material that they need. it's the oxygen the trump campaign requires. a poll every three or four days

>> a poll every three or four hours. [ laughter ] >> you're absolutely right. >> you're giving them too much credit with three or four days. and this is the -- that is the oxygen for trump and the fear of the republicans. they're afraid of him attacking them. >> they are. they are, because they're also afraid of alienating the people who support him because those people they all believe are going to be up for grabs when the -- what they believe is going to be the inevitable happens and trump doesn't win the nomination and they want to make sure they've got his voters. it's so interesting watching how the republicans navigate this because i think the party seems to have moved to the right as a whole anyway and now it's almost as if there's this quandary in the heart of the party in how far to the right. can they embrace these voters and still win the general election? >> where has it moved? is it the right? >> in the poll, trump is getting motion of his support from republicans who consider themselves moderates or liberals. it's not the hard delight is supporting trump.

>> well, it's a new group of people. >> he's not ideologically conservative. >> it's largely identity based, demographic based but not the right per say. you're right about the remember party overall. but it's not the tea party or what have you that's powering. >> among those groups, tea party voters, talk radio listeners, social values voters, ted cruz is winning the people. donald trump is not winning those people. there's a different kind of populous populous, they call themselves more moderate than conservative part of the party. that's where his strength is. >> ted, these are the voters that have felt outcasted, their parents probably felt like outcasts in the '60s and '70s during that social upheaval. >> but the irony is they think they're being tough on isis and isis. senator rubio in his interview with you touched on it very, very lightly. donald trump is in effect the recruiter in chief for isis.

now than to ve the world divided into judeo-christian on one side and the islamic world on the other. that's exactly what trump is doing for them. i think it's time we started thinking about what isis wants and then not doing it. >> and this is something we are taking a look at. is this stuff becoming new isis propaganda? by the way, i'll pause here a bit and do more of this. nbc news is announcing today we're teaming up with the web site politifact to help us fact check key moments on the campaign trail, have a third party grade these things, including interviews here on "meet the press." you'll see their findings on our web site, meetthepressnbc.com including a fact check we'll post later today on one of senator rubio's statement from my earlier intervuiew. back in a moment with secretary of state john kerry on the climate agreement in paris and the fears here at home on the idea of homegrown terrorism.

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but in our nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, we asked who would you choose if the race narrowed down to these five candidates? here's what we found out. the race narrows to three lanes. in lane one, establishment lane, bush and rubio. their totals add up to 30%. cruz and carson, their lane of evangelical christian conservatives, they add up to 37%. then there's the trump lane, all of its own. he hits 30%. so what distinguishes these lanes? well, when it comes to the establishment lane, it's education. here, bush and rubio. 56% of their combined supporters have a college degree. let's go to the evangelical lane. in that second one, the carson and cruz voters. 56% of their voters attend church weekly. that's probably the biggest distinguishing characteristic. now let's go to trump. because in this third and final lane it appears to be a new force in the republican party, at least when it comes to primary politics. for instance, 64% of his supporters didn't attend college.

establishment lane. then this fact, 61% of his supporters don't attend church weekly. again, opposite of the evangelical wing. there's one more distinguishing characteristic with worth pointing out. this is a blue-collar vote, again, that hasn't been a force in republican primaries before. 54% of trump supporters earn less than 75,000 a year. so the question is, to get the nomination, somebody is going to have to succeed in uniting at least two of these three lanes. who's got the best shot of that? right now, you might say it could be ted cruz. we shall see, it's something to watch for. later in the broadcast, we'll look at the chance we may have our first contested convention in 40 years if there is no consolidation.

state john kerry on the climate the great beauty of owning a property is that you can create wealth through capital appreciation, and this has been denied to manysouth africans for generations. this is an opportunity to rightthat wrong. the idea was to bring capital into the affordable housing space in south africa, with a fund that offers families of modest income safe and good accommodation. citi got involved very early on and showed an enormous commitment. and that gave other investors confidence. citi's really unique, because they bring deep understanding of what's happening in africa. i really believe we only live once,

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tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. ask your dermatologist about humira. because with humira clearer skin is possible. >> i believe this moment can be a turning point for the world. we've shown that the world has both the will and the ability to take on this challenge. that was president obama last night on the climate change deal struck in paris yesterday. the agreement aims to keep the increase in global temperatures

fahrenheit by the end of this century. it also aims to raise about $100 billion to help developing countries adapt their economies in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. it was not drafted as a treaty to avoid president obama having to take it to congress for approval and late last night paris time i was joined by secretary of state john kerry and i started by asking about the lack of an enforcement mechanism in the agreement. there's a lot of pledges, there's a lot of promises. but there seems to be no mechanism for getting countries to comply other than wagging your finger at them and shaming them. am i wrong? >> well, that's the most powerful weapon in many ways but it's not the only weapon. in fact, we think more other powerful weapons. president obama understood -- and believe me, he's been really committed to getting this done and it's his leadership in america on our own climate

credibility here and the president has been able to do that without that enforcement mechanism but by setting policy. here we set policy. 186 countries came together. each submitted their own plan for reductions according to their capacities. we have a mandatory legally binding reporting mechanism, chuck, and that reporting mechanism requires people to retool their plans every five years in order to do more than they might be doing and meet the goal. people understand this issue. this is not a question of doing it because it seems nice or politically it's good. it's because it's having a profoundly negative impact on nations. they need to respond and that's perhaps the most compelling reason of all. >> but you say "legally binding." okay, so somebody doesn't comply, again, is it -- what's

hit them with other than international shame? >> there's a mechanism being set up within this structure that will promote compliance and you will have nations within that mechanism working with countries in order to help bring them on board. you don't always need a sledgehammer sledgehammer. if you can provide people with technology or you provide them with technical assistance or you've discovered a new means of reducing emissions more -- at less cost, more efficiency there will be a huge sharing of these kinds of experiences through the reporting mechanism of the agreement. and that's going to have a profound impact on a lot of countries, chuck. it is enough to necessarily get us there. probably not but what it is is enough to send a very powerful message to the global marketplace.

vicinity of $50 trillion to be spend next 30, 40 years on energy. that is going to be one of the greatest reasons that nations spontaneously move in this direction because there are jobs to be created, money to be made and there's a population to respond to in terms of the demand of their citizens. >> i know you can go around congress in agreeing to this because you're not asking for ratification but congress does have the power of the purse. and they can prevent the federal government, despite executive action, from using money to participate in this. if they do that, do you ask the president to veto that bill? is that a show down? how do you get congress to just give you the money you need to participate in this deal? >> well, let me tell you something, president obama has been on the phone to president xi this week, prime minister

he's called the president of brazil. he's invested in this very deeply. this is a major priority because president obama believes this is a major challenge to our country. so if people want to tempt the president's veto, i believe they do so inviting him to take the steps they will do to protect what he believes is a critical urgent national security issue for our country. and the president, as you know, has been able to secure money for critical programs on the basis of the fact that there is that check and palace between the congress and the executive. so i think the president's going to stand up for his program no matter what. >> you've spent a lot of time with a lot of diplomats around the world. what's been their reaction to donald trump's proposal to temporarily ban muslim immigration into the united states? >> well, those people who know

shocked because they see it as totally contrary to american values, as discriminatory and, frankly as potentially dangerous and it seems like a person running for united states is doing well in the polls is prepared to take actions that would, in fact, ratify the notion that people are at war against islam, not against daesh. so i think you have to be very careful by categorizing people by being muslim. that's discrimination and it's contrary, i think, to the fundamental values of our country. we have plenty of ways to vet people. we already do it. we have a huge process of examining people for visas. we know who's coming into our country for the most part. >> you're talking about review of the state department. the wife in the san bernardino terrorist attack, it turned out,

radical believes on social media before she applied for her fiance visa. that's something done during the veting ing vetting process. is that something that now needs to be done during the vetting process? a look at social media and things like that? >> the review has been ordered and we need to look at whether there are means and how we can do it. clearly the social media has placed a whole new burden and a whole new set of questions but not impossible ones to resolve and i think we need to look at this very, very carefully which is what we're doing before we jump to a wholesale prohibition without understanding what the implications may be. >> that was secretary of state john kerry in paris. it was after midnight in paris time when we talked. coming up, it's been 40 years since we saw a contested convention. that was in 1976 between president gerald ford and ronald reagan.

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