tonight on "worldfocus" -- a grim assessment by the top u.s. commander in afghanistan. send more troops or face failure. a day of mourning in italy as the bodies of its war dead return home. and new questions in germany about its mission to afghanistan. we will take you to china to see how scientists are doing in their race to produce an h1n1 vaccine. today there was some good news about the virus. and 16 months after a cyclone killed as many as

100,000 people in myanmar, international aid is still not getting to the people who need it most. we will tell you why. from the world's leading reporters and analysts, here's what's happening from around the world. this is "worldfocus." made possible in part by the following funders -- major support has also been provided by the peter g. peterson foundation, dedicated to promoting fiscal responsibility and addressing key economic challenges facing america's future. good evening. i'm daljit dhaliwal. we are going to take an in depth look tonight at the war in afghanistan from several different perspectives that americans don't often get to see with views from britain, germany and italy, which are also heavily involved in this conflict. as the war intensifies, the death toll mounts and public

opinion turns negative. we will hear how the united states and its allies are re-evaluating their mission. while that process unfolds and president obama considers the options, his top commander in afghanistan is warning of the possibility of failure without additional american troops beyond the 68,000 already approved. in our lead focus, we look at that possibility and how it was reported today from our british partner itn. >> reporter: u.s. troops defending a remote outpost near the border with pakistan. the insurgents are emboldened. without reinforcements, the top u.s. and nato commander in afghanistan is warning the war will likely result in failure. in a confidential briefing obtained by "the washington post," general stanley mcchrystal says failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgents' momentum in the near

term, next 12 months, while afghan security capacity matures, risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible. the u.s. deployment in afghanistan has already doubled this year and will rise to 68,000 by year end, but calls for even more will prove even more unpopular with american voters. questioning not the strength of the force but the strategy. >> i think it's important that we match strategy to resources. what i'm also not going to do is put the resource question before the strategy question. until i'm satisfied that we've got the right strategy, i'm not going to be sending some young man or woman over there beyond what we already have. >> reporter: a deeply flawed presidential election and afghan government riddled with corruption are hobbling support for the mission as it stands now let alone an expansion. mcchrystal warns the real challenge is changing the way it's seen by afghans. unless it moves from killing insurgents to protecting the

afghans, for many it will remain an occupying army. the nurnls cannot defeat us, mcchrystal says, but we can defeat ourselves. >> that was from our british partner itn. now, to italy where this was a national day of mourning for six italian troops killed last week in afghanistan. in rome, thousands came to pay their respects at a state funeral for the soldiers. applauding in a traditional sign of respect as the coffins were brought into the basilica. in one of the most moving moments, a 7-year-old son of one of the soldiers touched his father's coffin while an elderly woman said good-bye in her own way. all of it a very public display not often seen in the united states, as the war hits home in italy, and the country finds itself in a period of soul searching which we hear about in this report from deutsche welle.

spontaneous applause broke out as the coffins arrived at rome's military hospital. people gathered in the hundreds to pay their respects to the six deceased soldiers. the plane carrying the coffins home from afghanistan touched down in the italian capital on sunday morning. italian president giorgio napolitano was amongst those waiting. the troops were killed when their convoy came under attack in the afghan capital kabul on thursday, bringing the number of italian soldiers that have died in the eight-year conflict to 21. the tragedy has sparked renewed debate in italy over the withdrawal of its 2,800 troops from afghanistan. the government says it may soon embark on a gradual withdrawal. but that the time is not yet right for a full exit plan. >> translator: we must remain in afghanistan despite the pain it brings us. >> pope benedict offered prayers

for afghan and international troops there. >> translator: i would like to renew my encouragement to promote solidarity between nations, to counter the logic of violence and death in favor of justice, reconciliation and peace. >> the italian government declared monday a national day of mourning. that report from our german partner deutsche welle which has also been looking at germany's role in the war. now, until now, the government of chancellor angela merkel, which faces a national election just six days frnow, has refused to call it a war, selling to it the voters as a humanitarian mission. but things have changed for germany's 4,000 troops, many of them in northern kunduz province, the mission has turned increasingly violent. here is hodeutsche welle covered that. a memorial service is held in

kunduz as german soldiers honor their fallen comrades. to date 35 troops have lost their lives in afghanistan. in recent months attacks on the germans near kunduz province have become more frequent. they came here with the best of intentions, to help the afghan people to rebuild their country, to win their hearts and minds with new schools and bridges. the reality today, however, is very different. german troops no longer feel safe here, whether they're in their base or out on patrol. they face rocket attacks, ambushes, hidden explosives and firefights with an increasingly aggressive enemy. in july, german troops equipped with heavy mortars and armored vehicles launched an offensive against taliban forces in the area. >> translator: we knew what we were facing because the threat level here around kunduz has increased significantly, but we didn't expect such massive resistance from the enemy.

>> in may 2007, there was a turning point. a suicide bomber killed three german soldiers in a market in kunduz. after that, the situation for german forces in the area deteriorated dramatically. insurgents stepped up their campaign with an increasing number of attacks. the taliban managed to gain control of ever more territory in afghanistan. they intimidated and threatened afghans who refused to support or assist the insurgency. for german troops, the situation has become increasingly complex and confusing. the insurgents don't wear uniforms. they're impossible to distinguish from the rest of the civilian population. >> translator: people we deal with in the morning and have a good feeling about turn out to be part of the same circle that attacks our base in the evening. then they're back for more talks, for reconstruction projects and mediate in the community. it's a real challenge. >> despite the precarious

security situation, germany continues to invest in civil reconstruction projects. in kunduz a new police academy is taking shape. nearby, a gem polishing shop has been set up to help boost the local economy. projects like these are intended to show afghans that germany is committed to helping the country by peaceful means, but for the time being, the rmans here are busy fighting a war that they're not even allowed to call a war. to examine all of this we're joined tonight from washington, d.c., by anthony cordesman. he's with the center for strategic and international studies. thank you very much for joining us on the program. >> a pleasure. >> so the president said this weekend that he is studying his strategic options in afghanistan before deciding whether or not to send additional troops there. what do you think his options are? >> i think this is more a political statement than real.

the president has appointed a new commander, a new ambassador. the actual strategic options were ready at the end of july. there are some choices in terms of the level of troops he might commit relative he really has only one seof options at this point. he can either provide the ambassador and the commander with the resources necessary to implement the strategy that they have requested, or, given the unpopularity of the war both in the u.s. and as, and the fact that we have an ongoing crisis in military terms, his choices are going to essentially be to leave or lose. >> well, some believe that a surge like the one that was used eded to turn the tide in ight be afghanistan. any reason for you to believe that something like this would work? >> i think at this point,

anybody on the outside trying to suggest a new strategy that no one who is in command or has any authority is going to support is pointless. the type of buildup in resources and manpower that general mcchrystal and ambassador eikenberry have been looking at is much more limited than the surge inside iraq. it's also focused much more in building up afghan forces. it's focused on building up aid and civil programs and protecting the afghan population rather than covering a large area to defeat an insurgency as in iraq. >> do you think enough has been said about the civil side, the options that need to be considered in afghanistan? >> i think the problem -- that's a very good question because, frankly, general mcchrystal is tying to solve the problem of the military dimension primarily. ambassador eikenberry has to

deal with coordination of the civil side, which will be as critical to the strategy general mcchrystal is recommending as providing more forces, whether they're afghan or u.s. and we need to remember that this document is completely separate from the overall resource request, which not only has to affect u.s. troops but to decide how to fund afghan military and police forces, how to find more civilians, what level of additional civilian sade is required and how this strategy will be implemented over a period of years. because we're not talking abt one sudden surge. we're talking about a strategy that takes years to implement. >> just very briefly, the last time you were here, you had talked about how much ground the taliban had gained in afghanistan just in this past year.

in your view, how dire is the situation now? >> i think the situation is extremely dire. and people sometimes see this as something sudden, but from 2006 to the present, the united nations, nato and a whole group of outside intelligence analysts have steadily shown how the taliban and the networks have expanded from a minor presence in the east and the south to a presence which now covers spots throughout the country and dominates a good part of the east and south. >> all right. anthony cordesman, thank you very much. >> thank you. in pakistan, authorities have placed under house arrest the head of a group accused of carrying out last year's terrorist attacks in mumbai, india. hafiz mohammed saeed is the son founder of lash ck lash kakar-l

group that india says masterminded the assault that killed 166 people in november. pakistani police placed him under house arrest in connection with two charges of hate speech against the state. charges that fall under terrorism laws. one day before president obama meets here in new york with the leaders of israel and the palestinian authority, israel's air force launched an attack on palestinian targets in the southern gaza strip early today. the targets were three tunnels israel says are used to smuggle arms into gaza across the border from egypt. the israeli army said that the attacks were in response to rockets which were fired into israel by palestinian militants from gaza over the weekend. also ahead of tomorrow's meeting in new york, palestinian authority president mahmoud abbas met in cairo with egypt's president hosni mubarak. abbas repeated the palestinian position that negotiations with israel cannot resume without an agreement by israel to freeze jewish settlements in the west bank and arab east jerusalem.

>> translator: we have yet to reach an agreement on the settlement issue. it will likely require additional efforts in the future. but since no agreement was reached, then the resumption of negotiation which potentially could have been announced in washington will not happen now. >> that takes us to tonight's question -- if israel imposes a freeze on all settlement construction, are you confident that there will be a peace deal between israelis and palestinians? you can tell us what you think by going to the "how you see it" section of our website at worldfocus.org. muslims have been celebrating the festival of eid al-fitr, which marks the end of the holy month of fasting known as ramadan. in china, muslims gathered in a mosque in one of the main muslim neighborhoods of beijing. they prayed as well in baghdad where iraqe leader appealed for unity among the country's political rivals

before elections in january. and in italy, thousands of muslims defied a ban and gathered outside for prayers in a plaza in central rome. the mayor's office had denied their request to pray outdoors saying that all prayers should be conducted in rome's only mosque. there's news from around the globe tonight regarding the ongoing effort to combat the h1n1 virus. in china a massive campaign to vaccinate people against swine flu began in beijing today. it is thought to be the first nation to begin inoculating its population against the h1n1 virus. china has been among the world's leaders in developing a swine flu vaccine with no fewer than five chinese drugmakers involved

in the effort. chinese officials hope to vaccinate 65 million people by the end of this year, about 5% of that country's population. in mexico officials are predicting as many as 5 million cases of swine flu this winter with some 2,000 deaths. earlier this year, mexico was ground zero for the pandemic but was able to bring it under control by shutting schools and businesses for several weeks. this time mexican officials promising such closures will be more focused. just recently, some 1400 schools in one northern city of mexico were closed after a reported outbreak. swine flu has hit south america hard and in particular brazil. brazil is now reporting some 900 deaths due to the pandemic, more than any other country in the world. according to the world health organization, there are now nearly 300,000 cases of swine flu worldwide with nearly 3,500 deaths. from hong kong today, there was some good news.

at a meeting of regional health ministers, the world health organization said that so far the h1n1 virus has not mutated into a more deadly strain. however, w.h.o. officials are warning that the pandemic will hit poor countries especially hard. at the united nations meeting in new york later this week, those officials plan to ask wealthy nations to contribute to a special fund for the developing world. for the latest on the h1n1 pandemic we're joined by our regular contributor when it comes to science, michael novacek, the provost of science at the american museum of natural history right here in new york. good to see you again, michael. >> good to be here. >> with winter just a few months away in the northern hemisphere, we have been hearing a lot of dire predictions about tens of millions of new cases of swine flu. first of all, how accurate is that? and well, how concerned should we be?

>> the h1n1 influenza "a" virus as it's technically called is spreading very rapidly, could affect a large part of the population. on the other hand, we know that the mortality rates are not hugely severe. they're more comparable to that of seasonal flu, yet we have to take precautions and the vaccination is a very important part of that. >> we also heard from the w.h.o. today that it has not mutated, at least not so far. how legitimate is the concern of mutation? >> in this case, fortunately, the organism does not seem to have mutated significantly, in fact, at all. it's very much the same as it was last spring. this is good news because it means the vaccine is well targeted to match the organism. >> we also heard from the w.h.o. today that the dosages of the vaccine may fall short of previous estimates that we had been hearing. how concerned should we be about that?

i mean, we're not rolling it out here in the united states until mid-october, countries like china have already started rolling it out. >> the critical factor, of course, is how much vaccine there will be available. and it's predicted that we could get as much as 20% of the human population in this season of the flu. that's a good effort. it might have been ideal to have it come in a little earlier, but a mid-october date will still be effective, not only for treating the disease now but for also protecting the population for future waves of the disease. >> and just very briefly, other than the fact that it hasn't mutated yet, is there anything else that is different that you can discern about this h1n1 virus? >> one aspect of this is who it affects. what the virus affects. and one concern is that it actually does seem to hit healthy people with very active immune systems. and some -- we have serious cases in tt age category.

>> michael novacek, thank you very much. >> nice to be here. finally tonight, we want to return to a story that hasn't been in the headlines lately but is still having a major impact. it has been almost a year and a half since a devastating cyclone tore through myanmar also known as burma in southeast asia. 100,000 people or more may have been killed and many are still suffering. as we hear from the canadian broadcasting corporation, the aid effort is being hampered by widespread corruption. >> reporter: on the irrawaddy delta where burma meets the sea, life is harder than ever. it's been 16 months since cyclone nargis swamped

everything here. after struggling with the military junta, international aid flowed in, but many have received next to nothing. this family tries to eke out a living selling charcoal. there are eight children to provide for. and there's been virtually no help since nargis hit. "i just got a bucket and a pan, the says. "is that all you got?" she's asked. "for other living, i didn't get anything." the family's pigs are not for eating. they too will be sold to pay for vital supplies like cooking oil. they can't afford to send the kids to school, and they often go hungry. "i lost everything, whatever i own. i had a small house. also gone," she says. it's the same story in village after village on the irrawaddy

delta. incredibly, many are still waiting for relief supplies. these large woven mats have been donated to replace walls blown out of houses. but there's a catch. these goods may have been donated, but they found their way into the hands of the head of the village. as is often the case, for these relief supplies, you have to pay. those that can't are shut out. no aid, no supplies, no help. at another village, a similar complaint. this one involves a seed voucher program sponsored by the european union. these vouchers are supposed to be worth 100 euros or about 150,000 chat in burmese currency based on unofficial exchange rates, but by the time the local head of the village takes his cut, they're worth a lot less. "if you can't wait, you only get just 60,000 chat," she says. "at the other village, a woman needed some urgently.

she lost a lot. if you need urgently, you lost a lot," he says. "if you can wait one month, you get 80,000," she adds. it happens all the time, they say. aid is siphoned off by those entrusted to distribute it. "i'll give you an example," he says. "when the people came and donate this here, if the village head doesn't benefit, he doesn't allow donations." almost comically, they point to goods that have been received that are barely used. in this part of burma, almost all cooking is done in clay pots. stainless steel and tin have little appeal. clothes are appreciated, even shorts that they joke could easily hold two farmers of their size. and kids who do go to school can be seen with their light blue backpacks from unicef. farmers like this man say it's not this year that they worry about. it's the future. "all my buffaloes, cows,

everything is gone, seeds, everything, gone." "what happened?" he's asked. "we planted it. the rice never grew. i don't know what happened." he has no seeds to plant for next year's harvest. even if he did, he's worried th salty nothing would grow anyway. there are many who share his concerns. they believe by next year, the devastation of cyclone nargis will have disappeared from the headlines. food supplies will be exhausted. and few are relying on burma's regime to keep bellies full. for its part, the junta is never far away. but it seems its efforts are not so much about improving people's lives as they are about stopping the world from seeing the suffering on the irrawaddy delta goes on. cbc news, bangkok. >> that is "worldfocus" for this monday evening. for much more global news and

perspective go to our website worldfocus.org. i'm daljin new york. thank you so much for joining us. we hope to see you back here at the same time tomorrow night. good-bye. "worldfocus" is made possible in part by the following funders -- major support has also been provided by the peter g. peterson foundation, dedicated to promoting fiscal responsibility and addressing key economic challenges facing responsibility and addressing key economic challenges facing america's future.

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