right now, come back another time. when the affordable care -- the prescription part d went online during the bush administration, there were lots of problems and a will lot of republicans said at that time, hey, it's computer glitches. so i think you'll have to give this a little time. people have the better part of six months to sign up. it will be all right. >> it may be more than that. the nsa has a 1.4 billion utah data storage facility that keeps burning up due to electrical surges. ten meltdowns in the first 13 months. >> there are big website problems with obama care. i think what is refreshing right now is crickets of this obama care are starting to look at how do we fix it? how to fund this thing, we can't accept it as the new law. and we should remember that as this program was rolled out in

massachusetts in 2006, it took roughly three years before major problems with the system began to get fixed. so, i think insurance companies involved with this and analysts i talked with will tell you the insurance companies want to wait until they are not going to rush to judgment in the first three weeks based on whether or not there were web glitches. >> 36 states are affected by this. what do you think? >> call it what you will. whatever you think about the whole concept and idea of obama care, the execution has been disastrous. this undermined a lot of confidence in the program, undermined confidence in the program. jeff happens to be an extraordinarily talented person and he may be able to cure it. i don't think it's going to happen in the next two or three weeks. it will take a bit of time and people are now really hurting because a lot of their existing health insurance programs have gotten all up because they tried to process this things through this website, so there is a lot of confusion and a lot

of problems going along with it and it's a real black mark. >> a laughing stock. >> yes. >> again, if they clear it up, this will all pass away. if this affects the program, as mort is saying, this is going to be a permanent stain on the obama administration and the whole idea of government as efficient and effective. >> funny that didn't half after the prescription part d had problems and nobody has given up, i believe, twitter had problems. i believe the rollout of the iphone, apple had problems. people -- excuse me, people who are going on this website with most of them would crawl over broken glass in order to get health coverage. and when they are not sitting home waiting for the cable guy to come, you know, people put up with inconvenience in a lot of areas and it's going to get better. >> did anybody buy insurance through the exchanges? >> me?

>> 700,000 people have completed it. >> how many millions who weren't able to get through. >> the very trouble things here, john, is that the exchange is the heart of this program. the heart is not working in the first few weeks scares everybody involved. you can use the phone. it's high-tech. but a phone bank -- >> here's the data. delaware had one enrollee. alaska 7. wisconsin had 50. oregon none. south carolina 23. the white house had expected 494,000 signups in october and 2 million by december 15. that speaks for itself. exit question. does the rollout of obama care vindicate the gop's demand for delay? yes or no? >> not only that. five democratic senators who will go for it, will get a

delay and vindicate the tea party's second position. >> they put in a six-week delay. already time built in, no penalizing, no mandate to pay the penalty until after march. it's only october. there is time here. take a deep breath, pat. and look at some of the coverage around the country and there are a lot of positive stories in every state of people who are coming on to this exchange and grateful that insurance is available to them. >> technology is not president obama's long suit. >> i disagree. >> the same thing happened with solyndra. >> his campaign was incredible. >> there you are. politics, right? >> yeah, obama or politics? >> how can they have failed there with their major program? >> contractors and it's a huge undertaking. >> look, whatever it is, you can say how many contractors

there are. it is an for this administration because the way they presented this, nobody anticipated this and nobody had any reason to anticipate it. they screwed it up and there's no other way to look at it. >> i think you summarize it well. don't forget, you can watch us on the web at any time from anywhere in the world at mclaughlin.com. issue two, gop slippage. >> republicans hold the majority in the u.s. house of representatives. 232 republicans, 200 democrats. with an election year looming in 2014, next year, republicans obviously hope to hold on to the house and to better reach groups that did not vote in high margins for them in the last election, 2012. but, new polling data taken following the 16 day long government shutdown holds dire news for the gop.

when asked who was responsible for the partial shutdown of the partial government, 53% of americans say congressional republicans. compared to 29%, president obama. 56% of americans consider the republican party as too extreme. compared to 48% who said the same in march. only 7 months ago. when asked if the election for the house of representatives were held today, 49% say they would vote for the democratic candidate as compared to 38% the republican candidate. and 11 point margin of difference. >> question, why aren't republicans doing better and where is the soul of the republican party? pat buchanan. >> the heart and soul is out in the country. it's at the grass roots, it's populous, it's conservative, it is traditionalist and wants to fight. no doubt the power, a lot of the power is located here in

d.c. but in the long run, john, the republican party is facing demographic death. 90% of mitt romney's vote came from white americans and they have now fallen to 73% of the electorate and 63% of the population and it is getting smaller and smaller and smaller. >> why? >> it's because of the mass immigration, the change in demography. if you take the three minorities, asians, african americans, which are 40% of the country, they vote 80% democratic and that is growing gradually and gradually and gradually. and the death of the republican party as we knew it is inevitable. >> really? >> you shouldn't have to be a white european to like the republican party. the republican party appealed to people beyond that particular demographic throughout its history. republicans today are so obsessed with their dislike of

this president. dislike of obama care and offering no positive ideas at all. they are dominated by saying no to anything that the president wants to do and they are fighting among themselves. you have the so-called insurgent republicans determined to kill off all of the traditional republicans in the primaries. so, i think it's tempting for democrats to just sit back and let the destruction continue. but we need two viable parties in this country. >> and you sought this out? >> away from the bluster and politics in washington and the mainstream media about this, the real question is, which wing of the republican party can raise more money over the next year going into the midterm elections? is it the tea party extremist wing calling for government shutdowns or the moderate center, the power base of the party in washington? that's an open question. so my answer to your first question, it's a divided soul. >> the job market is poor. who has more responsible for

that in the eyes of the american people? the democrats or the republicans? >> the republicans in my judgment, if they don't focus on the weak economy, they don't deserve to be in power. this is an obvious answer. 24million people in america who are out of work or given up looking for work. we have the worst employment since the great depression. somebody has to be able to say hey, the government, the obama administration is responsible for this and the republicans can't make an issue out of it. >> who can leave the republicans at this difficult time? is it ted cruise of texas? >> there will be out of power for about generation. >> really? >> yes. >> why do you say that? >> because he is the far right of the american public and on the far right of the american people. he's an intelligent guy. he doesn't deserve -- >> he is extremely popular in texas. >> he isn't going to win the election for the republicans. the guy who can win the election is somebody like jeb bush who is a moderate, very effective governor. >> i think he is -- you are

missing the problem, john. look, we now have half the american people are getting benefits directly from governor, including old folks and everyone else and a diminishing half is paying. there's less and less reason for that one-half to get benefits and pays no taxes. why would you vote for a party that cuts taxes you don't pay? >> obama's job approval has dropped and now 44.5%, hitting a low of 41% at the height of the shutdown. what does that slippage tell you? does it tell you the g.o.p. or obama has escaped the shutdown? what it tells you, if i may say so, is they don't think he is an outstanding leader. i'm not saying he's a terrible leader, but he's not a real leader. what they do know. >> is it psychoanalysis time? >> it is far better than anybody else in the country. 44 is not bad. >> and every program he puts out, the republicans say no. immigration reform is the next

one out there and the republicans say no? that's a political gift to democrats and the president. >> republicans are to blame. issue three, u.s. tax offense tango. >> we believe if pakistan is secure and peaceful and prosperous, that is not only good for pakistan, it's good for the region and it's good for the world. we work to discuss the accommodations by the corporation. broad based stable partnership founded on the principles of mutual respect. >> president obama met with pakistani prime minister this week. the first time the two have ever met in person. pakistan is a member of the nine member nuclear bomb club. in recent years, the u.s. pakistan relationship has been proper. but to some extent, strained notably. one, bin laden raid. u.s. navy seals raided a

compound of osama bin laden and killed him in may 2011. on pakistani soil. two, friendly fire. a u.s. air strike in november 2011 two years ago mistakenly struck a pakistani army post on afghan, pakistani border. pakistan retaliated by closing a key military supply route for u.s. troops stationed in neighboring afghanistan. three, taliban ties. pakistan has a historical connection to the taliban. islamabad helped the group gain power in afghanistan in the mid 1990s. how deep those ties may still go is a source of watchful concern between the u.s. and pakistan. four. drone strikes. the u.s. targets suspected militants and pakistan's

northwest triable region. near pakistan's border with afghanistan. unfortunately, drones can mistakenly kill pakistani civilians as happened in pakistan's area. drone strikes are highly unpopular, even hateful to pakistan's public. questions and sharply criticized the u.s. on their legality. the prime minister emphasized the horror. >> i also brought up the issue of drones in our meeting. emphasizing the need for an end to such strikes. >> despite its rough spots, the u.s. needs pakistan and 15 months, u.s. combat troops will exit afghanistan and the shortest route out is through pakistan to a sea port for troop transfer and pakistan needs the u.s. notably u.s. aid, $1.6 billion in aid, which by the way, was released

contemporaneously with his visit. in u.s. aid dispursements, pakistan is the fourth largest recipient. preceded only by afghanistan, israel, and iraq. >> question, is pakistan prime minister determined to turn over a new leaf when it comes to the drone attacks? taylor. >> the answer is no, john. what is happening here is very complicated situation. it is influenced by the domestic politics inside pakistan where people are pushing back against the very fragile civilian government. it is new, it's the first democratically elected government. they are trying to hold up and a lot of criticism and backlash to u.s. drone strikes having a foreign power all the way on this side of the world, kill innocent civilians with remote missiles from remote control airplanes. >> let him finish. >> at the same time, as eleanor was going to say, a big

story about cia and pakistani intelligence collusion over the drone program which suggests that his people are working with washington. there is still more than meets the eye here. what is the strategic interest for the united states to have this relationship with pakistan? the united states wants to get out of afghanistan. the pakistanis are paranoid that that's going to lead to a rise of influence of the indians in afghanistan. >> left alone. >> the pakistanis are very close ally with the chinese and the united states are very close ally with the indians. there's a possible realignment happening in rete john now that osama bin laden has been killed. >> a great concern to the united states. >> we'll be coming home from pakistan and i'll tell you what. there's no country on earth, there's no country on earth where the americans are more hated than the pakistan, which was a loyal, reliable ally to

the nixon, kissinger. they feel we abandoned them, they went to india and we left them behind and after we did the number on the soviets in afghanistan. i think we'll do it again. >> this was a positive meeting between these two leaders. whatever country they are from, and what they say in private are two things. much more going on beneath the surface. >> guess who is building two high powered nuclear plants? the chinese. put that in your pipe and smoke it, pat. issue four, economic fright night. >> september's job report released by the labor department a week before halloween. because of delays caused by the government shutdown, has thrown a gloomy spell over economic forecasts. the economy added a chilly,

148,000 jobs in september. this anemic september number brings the average for the third quarter to 129,000 net jobs monthly. far below the red hot average of 200,000 jobs earlier the year. unemployment dipped from 7.3% to 7.2%. due in part to another 136,000 workers dropping out of the work force. counting those who want full- time work but can't find it, the unemployment rate is 13.6%. over 90 million working age americans are now idle, up 10 million since president obama took office. for every three americans who have jobs, there are two working age adults who are no longer looking for work. this spooky jobs report along with the effects of the 16 day government shutdown caused

economists to scroll back their forecast for growth this year to barely 2%. these forecasts have sent shivers up the backs of retarials whose sales are haunted by another round of budget negotiations between president obama and the congress due to conclude in december. some analysts see this year's combination of decelerating as a witch's brew for the economy. but thanksgiving and beyond. >> question, mort, peer into your crystal ball and tell us what the latest jobs report is. >> it does speak to the very serious weakness of the economy in the contest of the largest fiscal and monetary stimulous in our history. just to compare it, we aren't growing at 2%. the economy is growing, but a good chunk of it is because of

inventory of cumulation. if you take that out, we are growing less than 1.5%. this compares to every previous recovery from a recession where in four years, the average rate of growth was 4.1%. for us, the four-year average is 1.7%. we have had a huge, huge weakness despite the fiscal stimulous. the money we are spending is not going to build up the capital base both in terms of intellectual capital and business capital. that is going to create a platform for future growth in the economy. so i think we have real things to worry about in this economy and a way we have not seen. >> so no tapering of the qe3 in the forseeable future, even with the arrival of the new head of the fed. >> quite the opposite, janet, who is the new fed chairperson, she is the two main objectives of the federal reserve, one is employment or unemployment and the other is inflation. she is not going to concentrate

on inflation. that is not an issue. unemployment is a real issue. she's going to do whatever she can to stimulate the creation of jobs in this country. >> i'm all for those monetary policies and for pumping in the stimulous. what is opening against that is austerity. it's not going to work anymore it has or is working in europe. they just -- it's fine to get the debt under control, but it's out in the future. right now the focus should be getting america back to work and getting this economy up and running and the impasse between the house republicans primarily and this president are really dragging down the economy. >> the new novel of the work force is the decline to 62.2% of its potential. >> what do you think of that? >> 68 million baby boomer who's are marching into retirement to social security and medicare in the next 18 years. after the sequester, you'll get

the sequester whether you like it or not. the key question is whether inflation pops up. if it does, and janet pulls back on qe3, you're going to see interest rates pop up and have a real problem in 2014 for everyone. >> do you think they are going to experience a grim future? >> i think it's possible. i think it's going to take about 10 to 15 years for the united states to pull out of the greatest economic downturn since the great depression. but i also think that the dooms saying that goes on in the media these days is late l bit over baring. the economy stabilized than where it was three, four years ago. >> predictions. >> u.s. and iran will reach a deal. >> carrie wins big in virginia with a huge gender cap. >> chemical weapons get used in syria before the war there is over. >> mort. >> weak unemployment numbers will continue through the middle of next year and be the major issue. >> i predict edward snowden's

revelations of widespread u.s. eves dropping on top european leaders will derail president obama's u.s., europe, free trade talks. 35 of them. bye bye.

>> rose: welcome to the program, tonight a former chairman of the federal reserve, alan greenspan, his new book is called the map and the territory, risk human nature and the future of forecasting. >> i was already a economist but i was also what is known as a logical massachusettsiveist -- positivist which says if you can't measure it, it doesn't exist. that spritd me from the understanding how humans behavior, the irrational is not worth doing. she demonstrated to me that i was wrong. that didn't have a full effect

immediately but it grew on me. and i look back now and i think some of my views involved in recent years to fall back on if i was stillwnhi wouldn't read t. >> rose: we conclude this evening with david kelly and his brother tom kelly. they have written a new book called creative confidence. >> i'm thinking is that methodology that we've always used as designers. you know, it's kind of like, you know, it's a process like when a writer has a blank piece of paper and can't figure out how to get started, it's our way of getting started on that. you know, understanding humans, building prototypes and telling stories about the future. i mean, the designers have this lovely job, inherently positive profession because your always painting a picture of the future with your new idea in it and see if anybody like it. >> rose: alan greenspan, david kelly, tom kelly when we continue.

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from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> let me start off by just saying, we had a terrible problem forecasting, because when we look out into the future, it is incredibly foggy and i want to try to indicate what it is and why that is the problem. >> rose: alan greenspan is here. he was chairman of the federal reserve from 1987 to 2006. he has spent a lifetime studying the complexity of the u.s. and global economy. the financial crises of 2008 took nearly everyone by surprise, leading economists and the brightest minds on wall street were forced to rethink fundmental functions, the map and the territory, risk, human nature and the future of forecasting is a guide to measuring economic vacialsz -- variables one thought to be immeasurable. i'm glad to have alan greenspan back at this table. welcome. how do we decide on the map and the territory.

>> it's a little abstract and that's what it's supposed to be. the map is supposed to be the conceptual framework what we're doing with and the territory is reality. and economists always try to get the two of them to come together and a good deal of the times we fail. >> rose: all right. let's talk about all that. role clip. this is a clip with you and i n an interview before you wrote this book. >> something you can never the quite cal brate is the human emotional aspect of markets. >> i'm glad you raised that issue charlie because i'm just starting to write a economic. it's call the economytrics of human name. >> rose: so you do put numbers on. >> i don't know that yet. i know i can do it in a number of instances but whether i can