from washington, the mclaughlin group. the american original. for over three decades, the sharpest minds, best sources, hardest talk. issue one, iraq under siege. >> we will not be sending u.s. troops back into combat in iraq, but i have asked my national security team to prepare a range of other options that could help support iraq security forces and i'll be reviewing those options in the days ahead. >> the united states is not simply going to involve itself in a military action in the absence of a political plan by the iraqis that gives us some assurance that they are prepared to work together. we are not going to allow ourselves to be dragged back into a situation in which while

we're there, we're keeping a lid on things and after enormous sacrifices by us, as soon as we're not there, suddenly people end up acting in ways are not conducive to the long-term stability and prosperity of the country. >> president obama is facing a new crisis. this one in iraq. islamic insurgents this week. iraq second largest city captures saddam hussein's hometown. the insurgents are primarily from a group of the islamic state of iraq and asham, known as ices. it was affiliated with al-qaeda until a few months ago. they are separately commanded due a falling out over ices uses. iraq's army appears to been enrouted. a de facto partition, with

controlling the west, the north, and with the dominated al-maliki government isolated in baghdad. eight months ago after meeting with iraq's president, here is how president obama characterized the gravity of the problem. >> unfortunately, al-qaeda has still been active and has grown more active recently. so we had a lot of discussion about how we can work together to push back against that terrorist organization that operates not only in iraq, but also poses a threat to the entire region and to the united states. >> at that time, mr. obama and mr. al-maliki developed a joint u.s. iraqi strategy to defeat the gihadists. fighters and apache attack

helicopters. eight months later, those weapons have not been delivered to iraq. the insurgents gained the upper hand. their objective objective is to seize eastern syria and form a new syria dominated country. if they succeed, the new state will, as president obama himself said last november, destabilize the region and pose a threat to the united states. >> question, what accounts for the failure of the strategy set by president obama and al- maliki last november. where did it go wrong? >> one of the failures they claim is that the united states did not get its status of forces agreement to protect our troops if we left 10,000 behind. we took them all out and as a consequence, you have this ices, has come roaring into iraq, the iraqi army of 900,000 men, has virtually desent grated west of baghdad and this country has the possibility of breaking up.

separating that out for their own state. ices dominated sunni's in the west and baghdad and the shia in the south. the key thing that people aren't looking at here is our four most alies in fighting ices are who assad, russia, and iran. iran and the united states have the same enemies in iraq and we've got the same real enemies, i think, real enemies in syria. so you could see a possibility of some kind of collaboration between the united states and its ancient arraign january enemy. >> iranian enemy. >> and they are worried that these extremists are going to destroy the shrines. they have the same vested interest that america has in iraq. you saw the iraqi army just fold, take off their uniforms,

because they don't really feel loyal to the iraqi government. they don't think of themselves as iraqis. they think of themselves as shiites or sunni's. you could see this civil war really come into a higher violence and it's not america's job to prevent a civil war. but it is america's job to prevent iraq from becoming a staging area for this very vicious spinoff of al-qaeda. so the president is rightly considering some modest military force, air power, maybe drone attacks. i don't know that they will be successful. they won't make the problem go away. they might help the government stabilize to the extent that they can drive back isio, which is the name of the terrorist group. >> good distinctions, eleanor. okay, here's winehouse press secretary, november 2013 spin. november 2013 spin. about six months old.

more on leaving u.s. troops behind. >> the decision to fully withdraw from iraq was one made by the iraqi government and the united states government. and it was the right decision. because anyone who believes that the presence of u.s. troops, 5,000, 10,000, 60,000, 100,000, the answer to solving iraq's political challenges. i think is just simply wrong. and that's, you know, i think that was part of a sustained debate in the 2008 campaign and the president was committed to ending the war in iraq and he fulfilled that commitment. >> what did you learn from that? >> they are trying to make the case. this is iraq's problem. i think that within the washington debate, people are trying to make iraq, the failure in iraq, president obama's fault. that's a hard case to make. you have to over simplify and ignore the role of president bush before him. what i think i should be blaming president obama, ices is not just iraq, also syria.

and i think that this is also flowed out of the absolute chaos in syria and a lot of people that think if two years ago, america had started arming nonextremist rebels in syria, you would have seen less chaos coming out of that. this is across florida crisis. the syrian half of this crisis is on president obama's watch. >> there's a big chunk of syria involved in this commotion. >> able to create, this islamic staple for them, strangles that border. >> why don't you direct the readers to this. >> all the way from a lepo in syria, all the way to 40 miles north of baghdad is where this so-called calafate is dominated by the folks. >> well, they are doing it with a rag tag band, really, like 8,000 men. i don't think there are any women in that group. maybe there are. but i somehow doubt it. >> baghdad so far is secure.

you want to speak to that? it's in the current issue of the magazine. >> it shows you what we are looking at is a political crisis where the borders drawn by french and british diplomats in the end of the colonial era, the drawing of the borders, that is being contested all over the middle east. these borders no longer map the world these extremists see. they see a sunni state that doesn't exist. >> bring that map back to the screen, please, and you can point to what we're talking about to get an idea of the volume of the land involved. are you able to make it with your spectacles? >> fortunately, my skepticals -- look, what you want to say about this, these geographic lines were drawn, they were drawn and right now, you have iraq that is directly adjacent to saudi arabia and jordan, two

of our allies. syria's allies. we are in a position now where iraq might become under its new leadership, shall we say, a radical leadership. might threaten some of our most important interests. threaten the whole oil market across the entire world. there's a huge, huge amount at risk for us. >> what do you think of this? i want the accuracy. an extreme islamist group that seeks to create and spread gihad across the world made dramatic advances on both sides of the syrian, iraqi border. >> that's right. >> and john -- >> that's exactly right. >> who has been financing these people from the beginning in syria, i tell you what, they came through turkey and the golf states are the ones believed to be behind them financially, gutter and some of these others are heroic. arab, at the same time as i say, iran and assad, whom we

are against, are the ones fighting them. the united states policy is just a debacle in the whole region. exit question. do you want to add anything before we continue? do you want to defend your map in any way? >> i point out, if you want to get more depressed, there's a nato member on the northern edge of that, the north of iraq. then you'll have a anyway nato member. >> did you hear that? >> they are talking about -- >> a nato member can call upon another member. >> exactly. why are the turks not the ones doing the job and finishing these people off? >> exit question. does it seem to you that president obama ended the iraq war in a way that protects our national security interests? yes or no. >> we don't have a vital interest in iraq and when the status of forces agreement was denied, he did what he had to do, which was get out and come

home. >> that's right, the short-term goal is to repel isil and then let iraq go back to having its civil war. the curds will probably, they have a strong army. they will probably break off. the iran will probably protect the shiites and the sunni's will make alliance with the radicals. but there's a million men army in iraq. if they can't stand up to this invasion, you know, i don't think it's up to the u.s. >> what do you think of this, david? no, he did not end the war that protects our national security interests. not our national security interests. the situation today is worse than when he became president in 2009. if ice and al-qaeda and iraq establish an independent state. it will become a nightmare. he was handed a victory and he squandered it. >> george w. bush left office wanting to end the war.

he negotiated the status of forces agreement. the iraqis would not allow u.s. troops to remain and so that's it. >> there's a bigger point, too, which this is not a fantastic success headed to president obama. president obama has not handled this well. this idea that suddenly republicans are pushing that everything was going fantastically well, obama took office; that's a fiction. that's a myth. >> i would not. >> would you subscribe to it? >> no. i think we have enormous national interest involved in what is going on in iraq today. it is just a huge issue because it could absolutely contaminate that whole part of the world and the international -- >> should we have gone in in the first place? >> no. we wouldn't be in this mess, john. >> and the same people -- >> if we hadn't gone in there under bush and the conservatives and hillary clinton. >> he had no choice. >> what are you talking about? they didn't have any weapons of

mass destruction. i think you were against the original invasion. >> it was a political vote on capitol hill. it was right before the election. if there had been a secret ballot that were resolution never would have been approved. it's not excusing what they did. they all voted for it. >> but we wanted the war ended, you did and i did. >> i didn't want the gun. >> i didn't want it to be gone either. issue two, cantor kaput. >> i know there's a lot of long faces here tonight and it's disappointing, sure. >> it was not only a disappointing defeat for virginia's 7th district u.s. house of representative and house majority leader, eric cantor, it was a stunning one. on tuesday, virginia's prime reelection day, leader cantor to come to a republican primary challenger named dave brat. by an 11 point clobbering. 56% to 44%.

brat pummeled cantor for supporting amnesty for illegal immigrants in the u.s. and brat also campaigned heavily on cutting u.s. government spending. what makes this brat win even more incredible is that cantor, a seven-term congressman, outspent brat $5 million. to brat's $122,000. that's a ratio of over 40-1. brat is a relatively unknown economics professor at randolph maicon coege. whereas cantor is the republican house majority leader. in the chain of command, number two in power behind house speaker, john boehner. in other words, cantor is a capitol hill giant. as confirmed by noted political historian and university of virginia college professor, larry. >> this is truly a political earthquake, not just in virginia, but nationally. you have the house majority

leader whose next in line for the speakership and probably would have been speaker knocked off. you know something big has happened. now cantor will resign that position at the end of july. a move already causing a scramble among republicans. >> question, how do you account for the downfall of eric cantor? mort. >> immigration, what he was talking about was the children of people who came into this country illegally, okay, and children who were born here. they are the ones, even if they brought their children and weren't born here, they are the ones that wanted to give citizenship to, and frankly i support that. there's no doubt what he got involved with and on the wrong side of which is a full issue of immigration. he was seen as somebody who was, that's what turned him around when all of the advertising went out and hit advertising, by the way, you are right, he had way, way more money, but he created the identity of his opponent by his

attacks on him. so his actual ads worked in counter. >> your point is well taken. this was the immigration issue that was the big lever that led to his being squeezed out of office. >> lit the fuse. that is the tea party world and conservatives see any flirting with immigration reform makes you a squish in washington. he was not conservative enough for the people who were voting in that primary. plus, the fact he's a washington insider. they hate washington insiders and the key thing that came out was he spent more on steak dinners in washington, you know, for lobbyists and donors and so forth, than dave brat spent for his entire campaign. so there's an anger there, which pat, i know appreciates, against the elites and the banks and any republican who can tap into that is going to do well in november.

>> you raise an interesting point. let's take a closer look at dave brat. >> it is not about dave brat winning tonight, it's about returning the country to constitutional principles. it's about returning the country to christian principles. and about returning this country to free market principles. >> professor dave brat was considered such a long shot that although he quoted national tea party money, he didn't get a dime from them. he professor tea party ideals, however, and did get grass root tea party support. here are a few more supports. born detroit, age 49, married two children, roman catholic.

education, master's in divinity. princeton, 1990. phd, 1995. professor economics and ethics. randolph maicon college. liberal arts school. 1996 and currently. also, randolph maicon, chairman, department of economic and business. curious, dr. brat will face another professor from randolph maicon college. a democrat. jack tramel, get this, also seeking to win the seat of eric cantor. >> question, what gives with randolph maicon college? can you speak to that? you're from all over, great britain. >> this is serious political country. this is james monroe country. this is madison country. serious political roots. and you know, there's a pretty conservative college for a

liberal arts college and we will see dave brat take it. >> let him finish. >> the point on eric cantor, immigration was a kind of, the way it worked is cantor's problem was he was trying to have a purity contest. and be an ambitious washington insider who wanted a speakership. i think it was that struggle that came out. >> did you hear about the straddle? >> you're missing something, john. first, the amnesty. he got associated with that. secondly, tv and the web and everything were all caught up in what was going on in the border of the united states. 40,000 children came in in three days and something like that. secondly, this fellow went after him as a populous. all these bankers and rich guys should have been put in jail, talking about cantor. they ended up on cantor's rollerdex, which was a terrific line. let me tell you the big winner out of this is ted cruz.

opened up a populous path to the republican nomination. >> this immigration, it's also the case -- you need to explain the border thing. lindsey gram lindsey graham. >> did you see that enormous rally for ted cruz in texas over this past weekend? >> you also got the dark radio. >> they were hammered this guy all day. >> hammered what guy? >> hammered cantor constantly. cantor was ahead by 34, 35 points and he lost by 10. >> exit question. who is the most likely contender to replace eric cantor as house majority leader? have you thought about this, pat? >> i'm going to go with the first guy from randolph maicon who took out cantor. >> yeah, i think that's right,

but to see this as a launching pad for ted cruz where admittedly, 65,000 people voted in this little race in virginia. and cruz can carry texas five times over. but i don't see him doing well in a lot of blue states. part of the battleground states that decide the presidency. >> david. >> i think on eleanor's point. to sit behind the desk in the oval office, you need 60 million people to vote for you. basically you need 60 million people. i do not think there are 60 million ted cruz voters. >> it's a path to the nomination. >> mort. i agree. i think that i agree with what was just said, ted cruz, who is an extraordinary speaker and a very magnetic politician, in my judgment, does not have a chance to win the election. he may win the nomination, but in that case, it will be a suicidal vote for the republican party. >> issue three, abbott's asian

age. >> i'm here to thank the united states for its engagement in our region. i'm here to further infringe our economic cooperation. i'm here to lebrate the extraordinary friendship between the australian and the american people and i'm thrilled to have you coming to the g20 in november, because we have a very important job in november in brisbon, to accelerate growth around the world, so we have more prosperity and jobs. >> the australian prime minister visited the u.s. this week. prime minister abbott was elected prime minister in an upset election last year. he began as u.s. trip in new york city by a morning job with new york fireman from his hotel. through the 9/11 memorial and the new york stock exchange. later, he addressed the american australian association. where he spoke to 200 business

leaders. prime minister abbott heads australian's liberal party, which means conservative. he delivered a probusiness message to the business leaders and indirectly, through president obama. that included blunt disagreement with the contention that climate change is the most important issue of our time. president obama's view. in a meeting with secretary general at the united nations, abbott reaffirmed his opposition to a global climate treaty with strict caps on carbon emissions. but abbott's most remarked remarks came at a business lunch where he said quote, i'm looking forward to the coming age century, the century will be an indian century, a japanese century, a korean century, and an indonesian century, as well as a chinese one. the asian century will be an

american century, too, because america is a pacific power as well as an atlantic one, he notes. asian needs america involved. the world wants america to succeed. the world needs america to succeed, unquote. if that formulation sounds sounds convaluted, it is. long standing allegiance to the u.s. >> question, what is prime minister abbott trying to convey with his formulation of the asian century as also the american century? david renny. >> in terms of the food court, with all the different asian countries. what he's trying to do is to thread the needle. in australian politics, you have the prime minister whose big thing was australia was going to become closer to asia. the conservative who follows him, antiasian immigration pushing the idea of america as

the closest ally, pushing australia under george bush as the deputy sheriff to george bush's sheriff. what tony abbott is trying to do, an important trading power, is to square the circle. to be a white agler saxon western nation. that's the thing he is trying to do. >> the huge part of the australian economy is tide to asia. on the other hand, they have to look to us on many levels as their principle ally for everything that might or might not happen. so it makes perfect sense. if i were he, i would have carried it further. we are also very close to europe. we are close to the north pole. we are close to the south pole. it's generous to nobody. >> i could no more imagine australia aligning with china than britain with russia. >> much more asian. >> the commercial interests are there. >> hold on, pat. i want to educate you, pat. there's an author by the name of white and he wrote a book

called the china choice. it's influential. the book sparked a debate among policymakers about how to balance australia's interest. australia is part of the west and supports the u.s., but commercially, this is your point, a resource colony of china whose economy depends on beijing. >> exactly. >> that's exactly right. australia is resource rich continent and china is resource dependent, so that tremendous commercial economic relationship, but culturally, ethnically -- >> don't forget, we have a base there. >> and defense lies with the u.s. >> in darwin. what goes on there? >> a couple thousand marines. >> what else? >> they signed an agreement this week. there's going to be some sort of nsa listening station, the australian military is going to do super secret listening and spying for america. >> any nuclear aspect to it? >> it doesn't have nuclear weapons, but it's friendlier

than new zealand. >> you think we solved that problem? >> immigration is doomed not to happen for the duration of obama's presidency. >> you got it right. >> eleanor. >> not this year, but there is still time after the november election. >> i think it's doomed. >> i think it's completely doomed. >> completely doomed. bye bye. erer

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