from washington, the mclaughlin group. the american original. for over three decades, the sharpest minds. best sources. hardest talk. >> issue one. election day. >> this coming tuesday, november 4, the nation goes to the polls to choose our leaders. the most consequential privilege and obligation of american citizenship. this year, 36 seats of the 100 seats of the u.s. senate will be contested. winners will serve the six-year term. 21 of these 36 seats are held by democrats. 15 by republicans. control of the senate is now vested in democrats. take control, the gop must

retain its 15 seats, plus win 60. according to conventional and mclaughlin group wisdom and polling, the g.o.p. will safely win three of these seats from the democrats. the states of montana, south dakota, and west virginia. that means the plus three pickup for the gop with three more seats needed to win the senate. the ten remaining races are cliff hangers. meaning it's anyone's game. seven are democratic, three are republican. let's begin with alaska, incumbent democratic versus republican, dan sullivan. >> question, who will win in alaska? pat buchanan. >> red, red state alaska, sullivan is going to take that one going away. >> eleanor. >> i think he can pull it out. his father was in the congress before he is a well known name in alaska.

by alaska standards, sullivan is a carpet bagger. >> it's too close to call, but i'm betting that he is going to lose because sullivan, well, he's had a number of bad turns in his campaign and sullivan crept up on him. >> i think he wins as well. i just don't see how it can be pulled out by his opponent in any other way, just isn't there. >> sullivan will win his performance holding. so the group votes 4-1 sullivan. okay, arkansas incumbent democratic versus republican tim. who is the winner? pat. >> the republican is going to win this one, john. it looks like prior is really fading toward the end of the race. so i think that's a real republican pickup. >> farmer, iraq war veteran, republican is going to be talking about him soon after he gets to washington. >> clarence. >> cotten has the momentum,

he's going to get it. >> mort. >> i agree. i think colin is an easy winner in this one. it will be a wide margin. >> mclaughlin says cotten. arkansas goes republican. okay, colorado incumbent, mark udall. >> gardner is beginning to pull away toward this last week of the campaign. i think udall goes down in colorado. it's another pickup for the republicans. >> eleanor. >> gardner awalked away from all his conservative positions. he still supports a person hood amendment. doesn't support on the local level. the state votes entirely by mail. i think udall has a chance to pull it out, but it's tough. >> clarence. >> the democratic ground game is going to help udall to pull it out. >> mort. >> i think udall is too tight, so i think his opponent is going to win. >> group votes 3-2. colorado

goes republican. okay, georgia. democrat michelle none versus republican david purdue. who wins georgia? pat? >> purdue it's about dead even, john, but my feeling has been if the democrats are going to pick up a seat, she's a nonincumbent, michelle -- miss non is the one that will do it. if i could change it now, i would say it's a tossup. >> eleanor. >> purdue brags that he would be the only fortune 500 member in the u.s. senate if he wins. that's not a great credential this year. michelle is a great candidate, daughter of sam and former senator, iconic figure in that state. she worked for the points of light foundation. she run the campaign right down the middle. i think she wins. >> a great chance to win a comparison to other democrats if she loses. a bad night for democrats. >> i think she's a wonderful campaign. as you say, she carries the

name. so she's got a lot of name reck anymore recognition and i don't think it's going to be close. >> purdue pulls it out. georgia goes democratic. okay. iowa. democrat bruce braley versus joanie. pat. >> ernst is a hot ticket. as a candidate, she has pizazz, a big smile. she has great ads. she's been a real comer. folks thought iowa was not within striking distance. i got to believe if it's a republican night, that joanie is going to be a winner and she will be a sensation in this town if she comes here. and she smiles. she's likable. i think she wins and you're right, she'll be on the stage with the republican leaders whenever they have a chance to put her forward. >> two words for her, hog case

traitor. she will come to washington if she wins with that reputation ahead of her. >> i think she pulls it out. >> mort. >> i agree. i think it's fairly unanimous. this is going to be -- she's a dynamic campaigner and she's going to do very well. >> correct, mclaughlin says joni ernst. iowa goes republican. pat. >> kansas incumbent, pat robins versus independent greg. >> well, i think if the republicans are going to lose one, it's going to be georgia or this one and i said i felt roberts. he's not well off with the tea party folks. i thought he was going to lose and i predicted he was going to lose, and so i'll stand by that, that the democrats will take the chance. >> i migrated, you know, we only have about four minutes.

eleanor. >> the senator has been in washington a long time and he basically kind of bragged about the fact that he rented a lantern back home in kansas. not having a real permanent residence in the state you represent is an error. the independent pulls it out and it will be wonderful to see the independent caucus. expanded to three. they could be the power center in a divided congress. >> clarence. >> i think orman wins it. independents are strong. parties, the brands are damaged and in that state, the way this whole thing has come about, it will work in his favor. mort. >> i don't think he will win. pat roberts is definitely going to lose. you cannot win this particular state. just doesn't hold water. >> very cute the way you backed into that. group votes 4-1. kansas goes for the independent.

okay, kentucky, incumbent republican versus democrat allison lundergen grimes. pat. >> charisma wins it. mcconnell will win it again, john. >> he is very tough. very able. they are just not going to get that guy out of there and she -- when miss grimes refusedded to say who she voted for in 2012, that hurt her. kentucky is a red state. mcconnell is coming back to lead the new majority. >> i just couldn't bare to give it to him. so i'm sticking with allison and thinking that she somehow can -- i mean, they don't like mcconnell in the state and if the senate goes republican, it will be a great consolation prize for democrats if mcconnell goes down. >> right, eleanor vote with your heart, forget your head. >> that's right. >> well, i would have said grimes myself if what

mcconnell's approvals are terrible right now. but you know, turnout is very important for democrats. it's going to hard to turnout for a woman that would not say publicly, she voted for barack obama. >> i think mcconnell is going to win. he is deliberate for this state. he brought the bacon home and if he's going to be the majority leader, they're not going to pass up that opportunity. >> the group votes 4-1. kentucky stays republican. okay, louisiana incumbent mary landrieu. pat. >> i think bill cassidy is going to win. mary had a bad last week. she made a flaw and i think the red state and i thought for a long time she would be the one that would survive. i think she's going to get beat by 5 points at least. >> she made a floor? >> f-l-a-w. >> i don't think either cassidy or landrieu -- it will

go into a runoff and mary landrieu has been there. she survived in her last race. i think she does it again. >> clarence. >> landrieu has been in touch before, that was before katrina last a number of voters. but i'm sticking with her. >> i'm going to go with cassidy. i think she is really exhausted her welcome in that state at this stage of the game. i don't think she survives it. >> you think she's alligator bait? >> i never thought of her in those terms. >> mclaughlin says cassidy. okay, new hampshire. incumbent democrat versus republican scott brown. >> jean is a very tough candidate. she is rooted in new hampshire. she's the governor of new hampshire. and she is fairly popular in new hampshire. but i pick scott brown because i saw him really coming on and

he's an attractive guy and he does have some roots. so i pick scott brown. i will say this, john, people should watch new hampshire on election night and the way that goes. if scott brown wins new hampshire, it is going to be a blood bath for the democrats. >> eleanor. >> if jean wins, he is a carpet beggar. he ran in massachusetts, lost the seat and moves into new hampshire and in the last debate this weekend, he was asked about sullivan county. i think one of ten counties in new hampshire. he had no idea where it was or what it was. big gasp at the end of the campaign. >> it's 49% to 49%. clarence. >> i think shane pulls it out. she has the roots. >> i agree. i think he pulls it out. it's going to be a close call. she's going to pull through. >> two errors. mclaughlin says brown will pull it off and a come from behind victory.

new hampshire stays democratic. okay. north carolina incumbent democrat kay hagen versus tillis. >> he has had $25 million in attack ads dumped on his head. but i honestly think he is coming on at the end of this week and i think cay hagen run into some problems. she's a very tough competitor. she's a tough candidate. i think that north carolina is going to go with tillis, put him in the united states senate. >> cay hagan has the incumbent. she has attack ads dumped on her head beginning last year. and most of the polls she maintains a slight lead. so she's been consistent. i think she pulls it out. >> yeah. i think cay hagen has the advantage of a lot of high emotions on the left in north carolina. they are fired up and we'll see. if they don't, it will be a long night for democrats if she

doesn't pull that out. >> long night, okay. mclaughlin says tillis. >> i think kay hagen loses. i think she's basically lost her welcome in the state as well. >> right on the money, mort, once again, and you know what money is. mclaughlin says tillis. north carolina goes republican. okay, tally time. republicans win 9 new seats. alaska, arkansas, colorado, iowa, louisiana, montana, north carolina, south dakota, and west virginia. but republicans also lose two seats. georgia and kansas. for a net plus republican gain, a 7 seats. what does that mean? it means the sixth seat win threshold has been passed and a majority of the group on this platform declare that the u.s. senate -- >> 48 seats for the democrats afterwards and 52 for the

republicans. they have the senate, john. >> correct. buchanan interrupted my flow here. but i'm going to resume my flow. the u.s. house stays republican after the election day. do you understand? >> republicans will gain in the house. >> we haven't done the house yet. that's for the future. >> that's what happens in the midterm elections, no big surprise. >> so here's an exit question. is this election a referendum on barack obama? yes or no, pat buchanan. >> it's a referendum on barack obama and his competence and basically the competency of the u.s. >> ronald reagan, republicans lost the senate in 1986 when reagan was at the height of his popularity. so a lot more going on besides the presidency. >> clarence. >> i agree. unfortunately for obama, he's being compared to bill clinton who managed to gain seats

during the monica lewinsky scandal. >> tell us about that. >> well, i won't go into the details, but let me say that, well yeah, as she's entitled to be. but that was a case where clinton actually generated sympathy for himself and democrats and the republicans. obama hasn't been able to swing anything close to that. >> mort. >> i predicted on the show a number of months ago that the republicans would increase their margin in each house and take control of the house of representatives. i think obama is the principal cause of it and a weak economy and don't believe that -- >> 5% growth, mort? >> that's one period and i can go into it. >> don't go into it. one thing. i'm not going to go into that. it's the employment numbers. it's the job numbers that it's going to affect the election and those job numbers are very weak and that's what will affect -- at every level of every state.

>> the economy has problems. the wages, the low participation in the work force, and continuing equality. those are all themes that were present in the previous president and much of which this president inherited. >> this election is definitely a referendum on barack obama. >> of course. >> don't forget the mclaughlin group has its own website and you can watch this program or earlier programs on the web at any time from anywhere in the world at mclaughlin.com. could anything be more simpler or more self-rewarding? issue two, once more into the breech. the liberian breech. >> what i signed this morning was a memorandum to the chairman and joint chief of staff in response to the memorandum of recommendation i received from the chairman and the chiefs yesterday to go

forward with a policy of essentially 21-day incubation for our men and women who would be returning from west africa. the fact is, the military will have more americans in liberia than any other department. >> liberia is the epicenter of the ebola outbreak now gripping west africa. under orders from commander in chief obama, the united states is sending hundreds of military personnel, mainly from bases in colorado and texas to build treatment facilities in africa for ebola patients and administer humanitarian relief. defense secretary says the plans to isolate u.s. troops for 21 days before their return was developed in consultation with military families who he said very much wanted a safety valve, unquote. to prevent the spread of ebola.

liberia has long standing historical ties to the united states. it was founded in 1917 as a colony for freed american slaves to be resettled in africa. and declared itself to be a free republic in 1947 under a constitution patterned after that of the united states. many liberians can claim decent from african americans who settled in liberia in the 19th century. and interestingly, is principal port city, it is named buchanan. >> buchanan, what's with buchanan? buchanan sec of state, also president of the united states, john, a member of the american colonization sages. basically felt they aught to find a place for slaves when they felt they would put an end to slavery. they didn't believe blacks and

whites could live together and they wanted to find place in africa for african americans to live. that was the name of the game before abraham lincoln. >> you know, i was in liberia with richard nixon and clearly we had big meeting with all of them and they were like americans, the folks running it up to samuel doe, had that brutal revolution, and murdered them all. a lot of the guys we talked to. >> eleanor. >> they've had a lot of problems, but they have a female president, ellen johnson, i believe, and they don't have any kind of medical infrastructure and they have been overwelmed by the spread of ebola. so i give president obama a lot of credit. he was ahead of the curb. our military has the resources and the logistical expertise and i think it's a right policy to quarantine them for 21 days.

the american military families were pressing for this and that's very different from quarantining medical personnel that go over there. why? because when you go into the military, you surrender your rights. when you are like the nurse in maine and you are exhibiting no -- >> eleanor, why if it's the right thing to do for the military to get 21 days quarantine when they are not transporting patients, but it's okay for a nurse or someone back in aid work to go out on the street or go bike riding in maine. there's no consistency between that in terms of the health of the american people. >> we have a different relationship with the military. when you go into the military, you give many of your rights and fighting ebola is less dangerous than going on night patrols in afghanistan. the medical personnel that go over there on a voluntary basis and come back and monitor their health and everything we know about this disease says if you

have no symptoms, you're not spreading the disease and governor cristie -- >> the doctor he reported voluntarily -- >> he came right out in a number of days. >> the military culture is different. in the military culture, when the order is given, people follow it. this is for the sake of everybody. and civilian culture, you want to encourage and that's what we are talking about. that nurse would allow it to be quarantine. >> it's not catching. after 21 days, i am expecting. not showing symptoms. >> let mort in. >> number one -- excuse me. these soldiers, if i may say so, are not there voluntarily. as part of a military contingent and they shouldn't be forced to lose any possible protection they can get.

and as far as i'm concerned -- >> you don't know how they are protecting. >> they are not working. it's not the worse thing in order to happen in order to protect the people. another thing. let me just say this. you don't take the slightest chance at a catastrophic outcome. the last thing you want to do is to risk that this kind of disease should -- >> what do you advocate then? >> quarantined for 21 days. >> we'll be back to this issue in a future program. issue three, voter id. is it a plus or is it a minus? >> i think it's a good law. i don't see it affecting anyone. it's basically, they want to make sure you are the person you are. >> i think it is a partisan trick to try and prevent people from being able to vote and i'm very, very much against it. >> the supreme court ruled 6-3 this month that texas can require voters to show photo

identification before voting in this tuesday's election. the obama administration had argued against the new law on the grounds that it dediscriminates against poor and minority voters who will have to present one of seven forms of government issued id to cast a ballot. three justices, sided with the justice department. in her decent, justice ginsberg argued that the texas law would disenfranchise hundreds and thousands, unquote, of voters. earlier this month, the supreme court upheld an injunction barring the state of wisconsin from executing its new voter id law. because reasoning seems to rely on the degree for which the states make it possible for the poor to acquire identification. such as by reducing the cost to obtain a birth certificate or state issued identity card. 31 states now require voters to

show some form of identification. 15 states require photo identification. despite predictions that such laws will suppress minority turnout, evidence from recent elections tells us a different story. in ohio and rhode island, where photo id laws have gone into effect, minority voting actually increased rather than decreased. >> question, is a requirement to show photo identification before voting a good idea or a bad idea? mort zuckerman. >> i think it's a good idea. and new york state and to some extent, new york city, believe me. they are people who are selling these cards that will now allow people to vote and they are not, shall we say, representative of the people. so i think it is perfectly appropriate to make sure that you are legitimizing the people who vote. >> you talking about fake ids? you can find those anywhere. >> the fact is, those are not

with photographs. >> okay. >> and they were for sale all over the place and believe me, they were used in very -- >> left the law to register with a fake id. the question was, is it a good idea -- >> and just go ahead and vote. >> what will enable people to vote. but is it a good idea or bad idea? it's a bad idea if you want to increase the number of people eligible to vote. and that is the way the courts have weighed it. the texas court called this a poll tax and that, that's what it was, the way it was reimplemented. >> the texas law has been ruled not on the merits of these laws, but because the changes were too close to the election. and basically all of these efforts to suppress the votes happen in republican states with republican governors and republican legislatures because the party doesn't have any ideas and terrified of the demographic changes and they are trying to piece it out of the electorate. >> barack obama says come out and vote, but only once because

this isn't chicago. the democratic party has a historical reputation of stealing elections. >> is there a problem? is there a problem? is there a problem? >> it is a good idea to have a voter id. look, john, you go to cash a check. i go down to fox news to get in there. i have to show my driver's license with a picture in it. you go anywhere, on a book tour, everywhere you go, you have to show id and photo id. >> i want to correct the record. studies have shown that while there are some voter fraud with in person voting, there's also voter fraud with absentee ballots. so, it shouldn't be a partisan issue. >> voter id on that, you wouldn't have that problem either. >> some are starting to, but you don't hardly hear about that until democrats press the issue. >> in texas, they accept his identification a carried gun permit, but not an id. >> that is a serious id. >> but not a student id?

>> a student id -- are you kidding? >> it shows you're a resident, right? >> closing question. have any election outcomes been decided by votes cast by illegal aliens? quickly. >> no. i would say if you're talking all the way down the ballot, yes. >> no, that's speculation. there's no evidence of it. >> sorry. out of town. bye bye.

this week on "moyers & company" -- senator bernie sanders on breaking big money's grip on democracy. >> owning and controlling our economy is not enough. they now want to own and control the government. and we are not going to allow them to do that. not in richmond, not anywhere. >> announcer: funding is provided by -- anne gumowitz, encouraging the renewal of democracy. carnegie corporation of new york, supporting innovations in education, democratic engagement and the advancement of international peace and security at carnegie.org. the ford foundation, working with visionaries on the front lines of social change worldwide. the herb alpert foundation, supporting organizations whose mission is to promote compassion and creativity in our society.